Thursday, June 9, 2016

June 9, 2016: Warm and humid Friday away from Lake Superior; 80s in the Twin Ports on Saturday (N-NW wind) Risk for showers/t-storms through Friday evening

/Issued 5:43 PM CDT, Thursday, June 9, 2016/

Severe weather outlook for Friday, June 10, 2016.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.






















































A few showers and thunderstorms could develop late tonight, most likely after Midnight in the red outlined area on map.  This activity would be the result of higher elevated instability pushing northeast during the night.  The image below shows the forecast elevated CAPE for late tonight per RAP model.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/















Heat advisory in parts of southern Minnesota for Friday.  More information at the link below.  Source, Aerisweather.com; National Weather Service Twin Cities.

Heat advisory:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mpx&wwa=heat%20advisory















Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.



















High temperature forecast for Friday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.



















Temperature departure map for March 1 - May 31, 2016.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

Above average temperatures in most of northeast Minnesota and in all of northwest Wisconsin.



















Precipitation departure map for March 1 - May 31, 2016.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

Above average precipitation totals over the Northland.





















An active Wednesday night/early Thursday morning as numerous thunderstorms tracked southeast through the southern half of Minnesota last night, rainfall totals of 1-2"+ were reported in some areas.  24-hour rainfall map ending the morning of June 9, 2016.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.















Surface map forecast for Friday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.





























Spring 2016 climate summary for Duluth, Minnesota
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*Meteorological spring is the period from March 1 - May 31*

Average temperature:  40.9 degrees
Normal:  39.0 degrees
Departure:  +1.9 degrees above normal

Note:  Spring 2016 was the 11th warmest on record.

Total precipitation:  8.23"
Normal:  7.15"
Departure:  +1.08" above normal

Total snowfall:  27.2"
Normal:  20.5"
Departure:  +6.7" above normal

Spring 2016 climate summary for International Falls, Minnesota
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Average temperature:  39.8 degrees
Departure:  +1.6 degrees above normal

Note:  Spring 2016 was the 15th warmest on record.

Total precipitation:  6.43"
Departure:  +1.09" above normal

Total snowfall:  14.2"
Departure:  Normal

*Monthly overview for May 2016 - http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/1605/climwatch.1605.htm  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

*El Nino is gone and is replaced by Enso-neutral conditions and this will be replaced by La Nina - More information at this link - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 9, 2016

High pressure was over Ontario Province today with low pressure extending from western Saskatchewan Province south to the northern Rockies.  A warm front was over far southern Minnesota late this afternoon.  Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area today with the cloudier skies found mainly in western-southern parts of the Northland.  Highs today warmed into the 70s to lower 80s with much cooler 50s closer to Lake Superior.  Dew points have climbed into the mid 50s to low 60s this afternoon along a line from International Falls to Aitkin to Moose Lake east through most of northwest Wisconsin while a less humid airmass remained in place closer to Lake Superior.  Winds today were out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium.

Tonight:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly overnight in parts of east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as elevated instability increases from SW-NE during the night.  Low temperatures in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.  The weather map tonight features high pressure to our northeast and low pressure to our west/northwest while a warm front lifts slowly north across southern Minnesota.

Friday:  Very warm and muggy away from Lake Superior with highs in the 80s with 90s possible around the Brainerd Lakes; Dew points will rise into the 60s to lower 70s with afternoon heat indices in the 90s.  Expect highs in the 50s closer to Lake Superior.  Temperatures Friday night will be in 60s to lower 70s with 50s near Lake Superior.  Winds through Friday evening will be out of the south, east or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Winds turn to the north/west late Friday night.

***An area of low pressure will approach from the west while a warm front and cold front pass through the Northland -- Should be plenty of fuel in the atmosphere on Friday with lots of warm and moist air in place while CAPE increases to 2000-3000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -4 to -9C.  Northwest mid level winds generally around 30-40 knots.  Deep layer wind shear generally around 30 knots.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop at times over the Northland with a threat for severe storms especially during the late afternoon and evening hours.  Damaging wind appears to be the main hazard at this time with large hail also possible along with the other usual hazards from heavy rain and lightning.  Be weather aware on Friday***

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  Medium.

Saturday looks warm but also less humid as a cold front pushes south into southern Minnesota.  Highs are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s.

East wind returns Saturday night which will lead to a much cooler Sunday around Lake Superior with highs in the 50s while inland locations warm into the 70s.

A chance for showers or thunderstorms returns for Saturday night and Sunday as another area of low pressure along with a warm front and cold front move east into the Upper Midwest.














Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  69
Low:  48

Sunrise Friday:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   9:02 PM CDT

Tim