Sunday, June 5, 2016

June 5, 2016: A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible today in the Northland

/Issued 8:30 AM CDT, Sunday, June 5, 2016/

A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin (Darker green shaded area on the map below)  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

The risk for severe thunderstorms is at a one for today (Lowest risk)














































Discussion:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late this morning through this afternoon in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin -- Storms should generally track in a northwest to southeast direction.

*Strong mid level winds of 30-50 knots will lead to quick moving storms today.
*CAPE of 200-700 j/kg is forecast to develop by this afternoon.
*Low and mid level lapse rates will be steep ranging from 6.0-8.5 c/km.
*Cold temperatures aloft of -15 to -20 degrees Celsius at 500mb.
*0-6 KM Bulk Shear in the 30-40 knot range today
*Effective Bulk Shear generally around 30 knots.

Although the amount of instability and moisture to fuel storms won't be the best today, there will be enough, and when combined with the stronger winds and colder temperatures aloft the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms does exist especially this afternoon and early this evening in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

...Potential hazards from today's storms...

-Occasional cloud-to-ground lightning strikes
-Brief heavy downpours
-Gusty winds
-Hail

Note:  Thunderstorms that do become severe will be capable of producing hail to 1.00 inch in diameter (Quarter size)  or Damaging wind gusts of 60 mph.

Be weather aware today!

Tim