/Issued 1:40 PM CDT, Saturday, June 25, 2016/
Source: Storm Prediction Center.
Surface analysis from early this afternoon and visible satellite imagery. Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/
Red line=Warm front
Blue line=Cold front
The warm front will lift toward the north/east during the next few hours while the cold front in western Minnesota moves east through this evening.
A very strong system for the time of year with an area of 60-150 meter height falls occurring this morning near the upper low/trough across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains -- Its this bundle of energy that will continue to move toward the east/northeast this afternoon eventually moving over a very unstable airmass over Minnesota, once this happens will see thunderstorms some severe redevelop across the Gopher state later this afternoon.
It's been a rough week in the BWCAW and Voyagers National Park area with severe thunderstorms last Sunday killing one person and injuring 5 more; and so far today 2 injuries in Voyagers National Park due to fallen tree as thunderstorms moved through that area; More information at this link: http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/4062220-two-injured-falling-tree-storms-sweep-through-voyageurs-national-park
Not much has changed since early this morning in regards to the potential of severe storms through this evening in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin -- The environment in place as of 1 PM is very favorable for the development of thunderstorms and severe weather over most of the Northland.
Mesoanalysis at 1 PM showed anywhere from 1500-4000 CAPE with Mid Level Lapse Rates of 7.5-8.5 c/km. Lifted Indices of -5 to -11 degrees Celsius.
0-6 KM Shear of 30 to 40 knots; Effective Bulk Shear 30-45 knots.
1 KM Shear ranging from 20-30 knots and the Effecitve Storm Relative Helicity values from 200-400 m2/s2.
Once thunderstorms initiate they will be tapping into all those favorable parameters mentioned above with the net result being scattered severe thunderstorm development by late this afternoon.
The main threats from severe storms continue to be from large hail, possibly to golf ball size and damaging wind gusts over 60 mph. A few significant severe weather events including winds over 65 knots and or hail of 2.00 inch diameter or bigger remain possible over the Northland through this evening.
There is also a risk for a few tornadoes as well especially near the warm frontal boundary and near any other boundaries left behind from this morning's storm that moved through northern Minnesota.
Be weather aware today and this evening