Wednesday, June 22, 2016

June 22, 2016 - Scattered showers tonight; Less wind and 70s Thursday; Strong-severe t'storms possible Friday night-Saturday evening

/Issued 5:44 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 22, 2016/

The next chance for strong to severe thunderstorms in the Northland will come Friday night and Saturday -- The map below is valid for late Saturday afternoon (Dew point map) per 18z NAM.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/










































Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















High temperature forecast for Thursday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 22, 2016

Low pressure of 1008mb has moved into west central Minnesota late this afternoon with a 1006mb low over central Iowa.  A surface trough extended from west central Minnesota to southwest Minnesota as of 5 PM with south winds ahead of the trough and northwest winds behind it.  A good deal of sunshine this morning and early afternoon in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with increasing clouds in these areas during the late afternoon.  Northern Minnesota has had quite a bit more cloud cover today compared to areas farther south.  There's been some showers that have been moving through parts of north central Minnesota today with isolated thunderstorms heading into far western areas late this afternoon.  High temperatures today ranged from the 50s and 60s around Lake Superior and in northern Minnesota with 70s and lower 80s in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Winds today were out of the east at 5 to 15 mph with gusts over 25 mph occurring near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight:  Low pressure will continue to move east/southeast through the Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes region.  Scattered showers will occur in the Northland tonight with isolated thunderstorms also possible south of Highway 2.  Mostly cloudy to at times partly cloudy skies with lows in the 40s and 50s.  East winds will turn to the north at 5 to 15 mph, higher wind gusts continuing this evening near Lake Superior.

Thursday:  High pressure returns resulting in a mix of sun/clouds during the day and a partly cloudy sky at night.  A pop-up spotty shower or two could develop but overall it looks like a dry day in our area.  Highs will be in the 70s with an isolated 80 degree temperature possible, it will be cooler closer to Lake Superior.  Lows Thursday night in the 50s and 60s.  Winds north or northwest at 10 to 15 mph tomorrow shifting to the south tomorrow night.

...Extended Forecast...

Mainly dry on Friday with highs in the 70s and 80s with dew points rising into the 50s to lower 60s.  Low pressure moves into the northern Plains for Friday and Saturday while a warm front lifts northeast into the Upper Midwest Friday night -- A strengthening low level jet combined with increasing amounts of elevated instability will likely cause scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Friday night in parts of the Northland.

Showers and thunderstorms remain possible Saturday and Saturday night as low pressure lifts northeast out of the northern Plains -- A warm front and cold front will pass through the Northland on Saturday which will provide the necessary lift to generate convection.  Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible on Saturday with a warm, moist and unstable airmass over the area.  One negative could be the amount of wind shear which looks to be at around 30 knots or so which is on the low end of things but other parameters that are forecast to be in place are favorable for stronger storms.  Highs on Saturday are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s with 90 degree temperatures possible in parts of the Northland depending on the amount of sunshine.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight - Breezy this evening.  Scattered showers especially before 1 AM.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph, wind decreasing to 10 to 15 mph late.

Thursday - Less wind compared to Wednesday.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 72 to 77, cooler closer to Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  73
Low:  52

Sunrise Thursday:  5:15 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim