Tuesday, June 21, 2016

June 21, 2016: EF1 tornado near Jacobson, MN; EF0 tornado near Zim, MN on June 19th. Dry tonight; Showers possible Wednesday PM along with gusty east winds; Near 80 degrees Friday

/Issued 4:57 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 21, 2016/

Still a few days away but Saturday continues to hold a potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms over the Northland.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.















Map showing the track of the tornado near Jacobson, Minnesota on June 19th, 2016.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.








Map showing the track of the tornado near Zim, Minnesota on June 19th, 2016.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Note:  More information about these tornadoes below.









Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















High temperature forecast for Wednesday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















National Weather Service Duluth damage survey for June 19, 2016 tornado event.

Tornado #1 near Jacobson, Minnesota.

Rating:  EF1
Estimated peak wind gust:  Undetermined
Path length:  8 miles
Path width:  440 yards/One-quarter mile
Fatalities:  0
Injuries:  0

Start date:  June 19, 2016
Start time:  6:49 PM CDT
Start location:  2 miles northeast of Jacobson, Minnesota

End date:  June 19, 2016
End time:  6:59 PM CDT
End location:  2 miles east-southeast of Wawina, Minnesota

Preliminary summary:  Tornado damaged several structures approximately 3.5 miles northeast of Jacobson.  Damage to structures rated EF-0.  Tornado continued east-northeast through forested area and intensified to EF-1.  Tornado eventually crossed US-2 before dissipating.

Tornado #2 near Zim, Minnesota.

Rating:  EF-0 (Preliminary)
Estimated peak wind gust:  Undetermined
Path length:  9 miles
Path width:  Undetermined
Fatalities:  0
Injuries:  0

Start date:  June 19, 2016
Start time:  7:05 PM CDT
Start location:  6 miles west-southwest of Zim, Minnesota

End date:  June 19, 2016
End time:  7:19 PM CDT
End location:  3 miles east-southeast of Zim, Minnesota

Preliminary summary:  Aerial survery found sporadic tornado damage consistent with an EF-0 tornado.  There appeared to be minor roof damage to a structure in the Casco vicinity.

Note:  The Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF) classifies tornadoes into the following categories.

EF0:  Weak.  65-85 mph
EF1:  Weak.  86-110 mph
EF2:  Strong.  111-135 mph
EF3:  Strong.  136-165 mph
EF4:  Violent.  166-200 mph
EF5:  Violent.  >200 mph

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

June 12-18, 2016

High temperatures:

6/12:  64 F/-6 degrees below normal
6/13:  61 F/-9 degrees below normal
6/14:  56 F/-14 degrees below normal
6/15:  60 F/-11 degrees below normal
6/16:  73 F/+2 degrees above normal
6/17:  78 F/+7 degrees above normal
6/18:  84 F/+12 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

6/12:  47 F/-1 degree below normal
6/13:  47 F/-2 degrees below normal
6/14:  48 F/-1 degree below normal
6/15:  50 F/+1 degree above normal
6/16:  50 F/Normal
6/17:  52 F/+2 degrees above normal
6/18:  61 F/+11 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  2.09"
Normal:  1.00"
Departure:  +1.09" above normal

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 21, 2016

Another fantastic day under partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the 70s along with low dew points which were generally in the 40s late this afternoon.  Winds were out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Surface map at 4 PM featured a ridge of  high pressure 1016mb extending from west central Manitoba Province to northern Iowa with low pressure of 1006mb over southeast Montana.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight:  Partly cloudy skies with some increase in clouds occurring at times.  Lows in the 40s and 50s with winds becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.  Ridge of high pressure will shift off to the east tonight while low pressure heads into the northern Plains - Showers and thunderstorms will develop and track southeast from the Dakotas to western and southern Minnesota later tonight but this activity should stay off to our west and south.

Wednesday:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with showers at times.  Highs will be in the 50s and 60s near Lake Superior with 70s elsewhere.  Mostly cloudy skies for tomorrow night with more showers which should end from NW-SE during the night.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the east at 10 to 20 mph tomorrow and from the north or east tomorrow night.  Low pressure is forecast to track southeast out of the northern Plains tomorrow and its this low that will bring some wet weather to the Northland.  Isolated thunderstorms are possible as well mainly in western-southern portions of the area but no severe weather is expected, that should be confined to southern Minnesota and points east where an enhanced and even moderate risk for severe thunderstorms exists for tomorrow in eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois with a slight risk for severe thunderstorms covering southern Minnesota.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  Medium to High.

High pressure returns on Thursday with clearing skies from north-south.  Highs will be in the 70s, cooler around Lake Superior.

Southerly flow locks in for Friday and Saturday as high pressure moves to the east with low pressure tracking into the northern Plains -- This low combined with a warm front and cold front will lead to a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the Northland from Friday evening through Saturday night.  A few of the storms could become strong to severe especially on Saturday.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s Friday and Saturday with higher dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees moving in by Saturday.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight - Partly cloudy.  Low 49 to 54.  Wind west to northwest at 15 to 25 mph becoming east at 10 to 15 mph late.

Wednesday - Turning breezy.  Increasing cloudiness.  Showers possible during the afternoon.  High 65 to 70, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph developing later in the day.

Normal temperatures for June 22nd at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  73
Low:  51

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:15 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   9:07 PM CDT


Tim