Wednesday, June 1, 2016

June 1, 2016: Scattered showers this evening, mainly dry and in the 60s for Thursday; Rain returns on Friday. May storm reports map for MN and WI included in this post

/Issued 4:50 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 1, 2016/

A brief break from the rain on Thursday before the next storm moves in on Friday bringing with it increasing chances for more rain across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  The image below is the forecast surface map valid for Friday afternoon.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.














24-hour rainfall map ending the morning of June 1, 2016.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.















231 preliminary tornadoes in the U.S. during May 2016 this is 28 below the 3-year average of 259.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots on the map below=Tornado reports for May 2016.














So far in 2016 -- 605 tornadoes in the U.S. through May 31st; This is 183 below the average of 788 through May 31st.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.













May 2016 storm reports map for Minnesota.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports (4)
Green dots=Hail reports 1.00" or greater in diameter (23)
Blue dots=Wind reports 58 mph or stronger (10)

***A total of 37 severe weather reports in May***

Note:  The average number of tornadoes in Minnesota during the month of May is 6 so May 2016 was slightly below average with a total of 4 tornadoes.



















May 2016 storm reports map for Wisconsin.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports (1)
Green dots=Hail reports 1.00" or greater in diameter (7)
Blue dots=Wind reports 58 mph or stronger (29)

***A total of 37 severe weather reports in May***

Note:  The average number of tornadoes in Wisconsin during the month of May is 3 so May 2016 was slightly below average with a total of 1 tornado.



















Average number of June tornadoes (1989-2013) Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Minnesota:  15
Wisconsin:  8













Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.



















High temperature forecast for Thursday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.



















May 2016 climate summaries for select cities

International Falls, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  52.9 degrees
Departure:  +1.1 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  1.61"
Departure:  -1.25" below normal

**3 thunderstorm days**

Twin Cities, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  61.3 degrees
Departure:  +2.2 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  2.42"
Departure:  -0.94" below normal

**3 thunderstorm days**

St. Cloud, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  57.1 degrees
Departure:  +0.6 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  2.17"
Departure:  -0.78" below normal

**2 thunderstorm days**

Eau Claire, Wisconsin:

Average temperature:  58.0 degrees
Departure:  +0.4 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  3.81"
Departure:  +0.35" above normal

**7 thunderstorm days**

Marquette, Michigan:

Average temperature:  51.8 degrees
Departure:  +0.9 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  4.42"
Departure:  +1.37" above normal

**4 thunderstorm days**

Duluth, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  53.2 degrees
Departure:  +1.8 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  1.87"
Departure:  -1.36" below normal

**3 thunderstorm days**

Local Storm Report for May 31, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*8:00 PM CDT:  FLOOD.  Winter, WI (Sawyer County)  A few roads washed out and high water in the Winter area.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  June 1, 2016

Today is the first day of meteorological summer the period from June 1st-August 31st.

A vertically stacked low pressure system was over northern Minnesota and southern Ontario Province this afternoon.  Mid level temperatures of -18 to -20C covered the Northland today with high temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s -- The combination of the cold temperatures aloft and warmer temperatures near the surface made the atmosphere a little unstable with mesoanalysis showing up to 500 j/kg of elevated CAPE this afternoon along with Lapse Rates from 6.0-7.0 c/km and Lifted Indices around 0 to -1C.  Scattered lines of showers and isolated thunderstorms have been moving through northeast Minnesota today with a few showers also affecting parts of northwest Wisconsin.  The greatest concentration of these showers have been along and north of Highway 2 today with brief heavy downpours occurring at times.  Winds this afternoon were out of the south or west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight:  Low pressure will move east/northeast out of northern Minnesota and will be centered north of Lake Superior by daybreak.  Scattered showers will continue tonight but will come to an end from SW-NE as this system slowly exits to the northeast.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will shift to the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Thursday:  Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies with highs in the 60s with locations south of Highway 2 getting close to 70 degrees -- A few spotty showers are possible but coverage should be a lot less compared to Wednesday.  Low pressure will move into eastern Canada while the next system organizes across the northern Plains.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies for Thursday night with lows in the 40s and 50s.  West or northwest winds tomorrow at 10 to 20 mph, winds gradually shifting to the east or southeast tomorrow night at 5 to 15 mph.

...Extended Forecast...

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Rain chances will increase during the day Friday as an area of low pressure along with a warm front and cold front move through the Upper Midwest.  A few stronger thunderstorms will be possible on Friday especially over western-southern portions of the Northland.

Low pressure will exit to the south/east this weekend but an unsettled northwest flow will remain over the area which will keep the chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms alive for both Saturday and Sunday.

High temperatures on Friday are forecast to be in the 60s to lower 70s except for cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s with highs on Sunday in the 60s and 70s.  Low temperatures from Friday night through Sunday night should mainly be in the 40s and 50s.















Normal temperatures for June 2nd at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  67
Low:  45

Sunrise Thursday:  5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:57 PM CDT

Tim