Saturday, May 7, 2016

May 7, 2016 Weather Report: A dozen tornado reports today in northeast Colorado. Nice weather continues in the Northland on Sunday. Wildfire update included in this post. Big cool down possible by the 13th (Snow flurries??)

/Issued 9:06 PM CDT, Saturday, May 7, 2016/

Image from the 12z European ensemble model; TropicalTidbits.com

850mb temperature anomaly forecast valid for Friday, May 13, 2016.  Blue and purple colors=Below average temperatures.














Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















7-day precipitation forecast valid through Saturday, May 14, 2016.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Potential is there for at least some rain in most of Minnesota and Wisconsin by Monday and Tuesday with lingering rain chances for most of the rest of the week.  Heaviest totals in southern Minnesota possibly 1-2" of rain.  Lesser amounts in northern Minnesota, around a half inch or so.

















A risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday from Nebraska to Texas with a higher end severe threat from central Kansas to southern Oklahoma where a Moderate risk (4) and Enhanced risk (3) for severe thunderstorms exists for Sunday.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.














Visible satellite image from late this afternoon centered on eastern Colorado with supercell thunderstorms affecting the northeast part of the state.
















Warnings map for today.

Red polygons=Tornado warning
Blue polygons=Severe thunderstorm warning













Filtered storm reports map for May 7, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado
Blue dots=Damaging wind (58 mph or stronger)
Green dots=Large hail (1.00" or greater in diameter)















**Update on the wildfires affecting parts of northeast Minnesota - Story from the Duluth News Tribune:  http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/4027565-crews-battling-new-wildfires-near-finland-embarrass

**Another story from the Duluth News Tribune about the wildfires in parts of northeast Minnesota - http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/4027607-dry-conditions-keep-northland-fire-crews-busy

**Update on the massive Fort McMurrary wildfire:  http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-saturday-1.3571678

Weather Summary for May 7, 2016

Compared to Friday, today was much cooler in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with daytime highs in the 60s which is still a little bit above average for early May but yes a lot cooler compared to the record breaking heat on Friday.  Smoke was a huge issue in most of the Northland last night and this morning but a lot of this smoke moved away this afternoon.  Sky conditions ranged from mostly sunny to mostly cloudy with even a few showers passing through extreme northeast Minnesota at times.

A quiet weather pattern continues through Sunday with high pressure in control.  Expect low temperatures to be in the 30s and 40s tonight and Sunday night with highs on Sunday in the 60s to around 70 degrees.  An east wind is forecast to develop on Sunday near Lake Superior which will result in temperatures in the 40s and 50s.

Looking ahead...Multiple rain chances beginning Monday or Tuesday and lingering through Friday.  A slow moving low pressure system will approach from the west and southwest bringing a few rounds of rain to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  The better chances for rain appear to be on Tuesday and Wednesday the way it looks now.  Enough cold air could move in late in the week (Friday the 13th) to produce a few snow flurries in parts of northern Minnesota.

Tim