Thursday, May 5, 2016

May 5, 2016 Weather Report - Record warmth at International Falls, Minnesota today; More record heat on the way for Friday along with dangerous fire weather conditions; A few spotty t-storms possible late Friday afternoon/evening. 80 degree temperature stats included in this post

/Issued 7:24 PM CDT, Thursday, May 5, 2016/

Future radar for Friday.  Source, 18z 4km NAM; TropicalTidbits.com

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible especially after 3-4 PM Friday starting in northern Minnesota then spreading further south/east after 5 PM before moving out of the Northland around Midnight Friday night.  Note:  Just expecting isolated activity not widespread rains late Friday afternoon or evening.








































Dangerous fire weather conditions expected on Friday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Pink areas=Red Flag Warning -- More information at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=red%20flag%20warning

Fire Weather Watch in effect on Friday for northeast Minnesota but not including the North Shore of Lake Superior -- More information at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=fire%20weather%20watch
















Friday's thunderstorm outlook.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.

Dark green area=A risk for non-severe thunderstorms.














Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Friday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















80 degree temperature stats for Duluth, Minnesota

Average date for the first 80 degree temperature:  May 20th (1981-2010 data)

**Earliest 1st 80 degree day since 1981:  April 14th, 2003

**Latest 1st 80 degree day since 1981:  June 29th, 2004

Last year:  The first 80 degree temperature occurred on May 27th.

Note:  Since 1981 -- There have been 8 other instances where the first 80 degree temperature came before May 6th, see list below.

May 4th, 1986
April 17th, 1987
April 22nd, 1990
May 1st, 1992
May 5th, 1993
May 5th, 2000
April 29th, 2001
April 14th, 2003

80 degree temperature stats for International Falls, Minnesota

Average date for the first 80 degree temperature:  May 13th (1981-2010 data)

**Earliest 1st 80 degree day since 1981:  April 4th, 1991.

**Latest 1st 80 degree day since 1981:  July 3rd, 1985.

Last year:  The first 80 degree temperature occurred on May 2nd.

*Record event*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Record high temperature today, May 5th, 2016 at International Falls, Minnesota.

***New record***  87 degrees
Old record:  86 degrees set in 1918.

Impressive temperature rises at both Duluth and International Falls today, May 5th, 2016.

+43 degrees at Duluth; Low was 36 degrees; High was 79 degrees.

+46 degrees at International Falls; Low was 41 degrees; High was 87 degrees.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 5th, 2016

Blowtorch! Low pressure over central Manitoba Province and high pressure over the central Plains is a perfect recipe for an early May heatwave.  A ridge runner preceding this blast of heat led to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms before Noon today in parts of north central, northeast and east central Minnesota but by this afternoon the heat was on as skies turned sunny or mostly sunny.  High temperatures soared into the 80s in north central Minnesota with mainly 70s found across northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures made it into the low 90s today across much of northwestern Minnesota.  Winds today were out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (May 5)

Unseasonably warm! Low temperatures tonight will only fall into the 50s to lower 60s which is close to the average HIGH temperature for early May.  Clear to partly cloudy skies with winds out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Friday and Friday night (May 6)

A hot one tomorrow under partly to mostly sunny skies.  Highs will be in the 80s with a few locations possibly reaching 90 degrees!  The combination of very warm temperatures, low humidity and gusty winds will lead to dangerous fire weather conditions throughout the Northland.

An area of low pressure will pass by to our north tomorrow while a cold front attached to this low heads east/southeast through the Northland from late Friday afternoon into Friday evening -- The airmass along and ahead of this boundary will consist of around 1000-1500 j/kg CAPE with Lifted Indices of -2 to -5C along with mid level lapse rates of around 7.0-7.5 c/km.  Low level moisture won't be all that impressive though with dew points generally in the 45-55 degree range with the higher dew points likely pooling along the frontal boundary during the late afternoon hours.  

Lift associated with the cold front combined with the projected convective parameters mentioned above could lead to a few showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the Northland.  The strongest winds aloft will remain north of the instability axis with this event, thus the overall amount of wind shear looks pretty weak...Severe thunderstorms are not expected in our area on Friday but occasional lightning strikes, brief gusty winds, locally heavy downpours and possibly some small hail could occur in a few of the storms.

Lows Friday night will be in the 40s as winds turn to the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (May 7-9)

Mainly dry this weekend and on Monday.  It will also be a lot cooler but the highs that are forecast this weekend are actually near to still slightly above normal for early May.  High temperatures should top out in the 60s on Saturday, Sunday and Monday with a few locations possibly hitting 70 degrees Sunday and Monday.  Looks like the easterly wind will return near Lake Superior by Sunday or Monday so that will mean much cooler temperatures for Lakeshore areas once the east wind kicks in.  Low temperatures Saturday night and Sunday night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(May 10-15)

As nice as it is now it does look quite a bit cooler next week especially around Lake Superior as we get back into a pattern that favors an easterly wind direction.  Low pressure is also forecast to move into the central and northern Plains during the 10th-12th time frame -- This system could bring some rain to parts of the Northland especially from the 10th-13th the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *RED FLAG WARNING* for Superior
Timing:  9 AM Friday to 8 PM CDT Friday.

Event:  *FIRE WEATHER WATCH* for Duluth
Timing:  Friday morning through Friday evening.

.Tonight...  Unseasonably mild.  Partly cloudy.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Very warm with a record high temperature likely.  Breezy.  Partly cloudy.  High 82 to 87.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Note:  Record high temperature for Friday is 82 degrees set in 2000 and in 1934.

.Friday night...  A few showers or thunderstorms possible during the evening.  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 61 to 66.

.Saturday night...  Mostly clear.  Low 42 to 47.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  59
Low:   38

Sunrise Friday:  5:45 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:26 PM CDT

Tim