Monday, May 16, 2016

May 16, 2016 Weather Report: Frost-freeze potential tonight otherwise a dry and pleasant spring pattern this week; Rainfall totals from last night included in this post

/Issued 5:17 PM CDT, Monday, May 16, 2016/

500mb map for May 16, 2016.  The big story this week will be a dome of warm temperatures that will expand over Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario Provinces in Canada-- This warmth will spread south/east into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by mid to late week and through the upcoming weekend.


















Source, Aerisweather.com; National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
















Low temperature forecast for tonight -- Below average temperatures throughout the Northland.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















High temperature forecast for Tuesday -- Near normal temperatures expected on Tuesday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















24-hour rainfall totals map ending the morning of May 16, 2016.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center. 

Note:  Additional rain totals below.

















Kabetogama, MN:  0.20"
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  0.13"
3 E of Orr, MN:  0.12"
3 S of Ashland, WI:  0.12"
Washburn, WI:  0.10"
Skibo, MN:  0.09"
8 S of Bigfork, MN:  0.07"
Northome, MN:  0.06"
Hayward, WI:  0.04"

Last week's temperature departure map.  Below average temperatures throughout northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with the greatest departures from normal in the purple colored areas on the map.
















Last week's precipitation departure map.  Below average precipitation in the north, above average across the south.
















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, MN (Airport location)

May 8-14, 2016

High temperatures:

5/8:  64 F/+4 degrees above normal
5/9:  64 F/+4 degrees above normal
5/10:  51 F/-10 degrees below normal
5/11:  52 F/-9 degrees below normal
5/12:  61 F/Normal
5/13:  46 F/-16 degrees below normal
5/14:  38 F/-24 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

5/8:  36 F/-2 degrees below normal
5/9:  39 F/Normal
5/10:  43 F/+4 degrees above normal
5/11:  39 F/Normal
5/12:  43 F/+3 degrees above normal
5/13:  32 F/-8 degrees below normal
5/14:  28 F/-12 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  0.32"
Normal:  0.71"
Departure:  -0.39" below normal

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota & NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 16, 2016

Cooler than normal temperatures in the Northland today under a good deal of clouds with some sunshine occurring at times.  High temperatures were in the 50s to lower 60s with generally north or east winds at around 10 mph.  Surface map late this afternoon had high pressure of 1022mb over southern Saskatchewan Province with low pressure over the central-southern Great Lakes.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota & NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

A cool pattern continues for now as we remain under a N-NW flow aloft with H85 temperatures at around 0C while H5 temperatures remain at around -25C.  

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be common tonight although a trend toward clearer skies should take place during the night which will set the stage for a scattered frost threat inland from Lake Superior.  

Partly cloudy skies on the way for Tuesday with clear to partly cloudy skies for Tuesday night.

High pressure will settle into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes through midweek which will result in rather tranquil late spring weather conditions.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 30s with pockets of 20s likely as well.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Tuesday night in the 30s and 40s.  Not much wind to speak of which is a huge change from what we have dealt with most of this spring -- Generally a 5 to 15 mph wind which should be variable in direction through Tuesday then shifting more to the southwest on Wednesday.  Note:  Localized lake breezes are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday close to Lake Superior.

...Looking ahead...

Little to no rain from Wednesday through the upcoming weekend as a ridge of high pressure keeps our area on the dry side.  Daytime highs should warm into the 60s and 70s from Wednesday through Friday with 70s and possibly a few near 80 degree temperatures Saturday, Sunday and Monday (May 21-23)  

Wind direction near Lake Superior could shift to the east, however, on Friday and Saturday which would lead to much cooler temperatures closer to the big lake, otherwise at this time it looks like will have a south or southwest wind direction Wednesday and Thursday, and again on Sunday and Monday in the Twin Ports (Southerly direction=Warmer temperatures/Easterly direction=Cooler temperatures)

Normal temperatures for May 17 at Duluth

High:  63
Low:  41

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:31 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:  8:40 PM CDT

Tim