Sunday, May 15, 2016

May 15, 2016: Recap of the May 13-14 cold outbreak; Shower threat increases after 4-5 PM today in Duluth; Future radar included in this post

/Issued 11:07 AM CDT, Sunday, May 15, 2016/

Future radar for this afternoon through this evening per 13z HRRR model.

Note:  The chance for rain showers increases in Duluth especially after 4-5 PM today.

























































Total rainfall forecast ending at 1 AM tonight per 12z HopWRF model.















Late morning water vapor satellite image.















May 14, 2016 high temperature map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.















Low temperature report for May 14, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Linden Grove, MN:  21 F
Sucker River, MN:  23 F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport)  25 F
Aurora, MN:  26 F
Skibo, MN:  26 F
Cook, MN:  27 F

Duluth, MN (Airport)  28 F
International Falls, MN:  28 F
Brainerd, MN:  30 F
Hibbing, MN:  27 F
Ashland, WI:  31 F
Hayward, WI:  32 F

Sky Harbor Airport, MN:  34 F
Two Harbors, MN:  30 F
Silver Bay, MN:  28 F
Ely, MN:  27 F
Orr, MN:  28 F
Crane Lake, MN:  27 F

Bigfork, MN:  30 F
Grand Rapids, MN:  30 F
Pine River, MN:  28 F
Moose Lake, MN:  32 F
Hinckley, MN:  32 F
Cloquet, MN:  28 F

Walker, MN:  28 F
Superior, WI:  32 F
Solon Springs, WI:  32 F
Siren, WI:  32 F
Phillips, WI:  28 F
3 E of Wright, MN:  29 F

8 S of Bigfork, MN:  26 F
Babbitt, MN:  26 F
Brimson, MN:  24 F
Embarrass, MN:  25 F
Floodwood, MN:  27 F
1 WSW of Saxon, WI:  29 F
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  28 F
Winter, WI:  29 F

Snowfall report for May 13-14, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.1"
8 S of Bigfork, MN:  0.5"
25 E of Ely, MN:  0.2"
Cook, MN:  1.0"
Embarrass, MN:  0.3"
1 WSW of Saxon, WI:  0.4"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.3"
Gile, WI:  1.0"

High temperature report for May 14, 206
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  38 F
International Falls, MN:  42 F
Hibbing, MN:  38 F
Two Harbors, MN:  39 F
Silver Bay, MN:  39 F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport)  36 F
Ely, MN:  36 F
Orr, MN:  39 F
Cook, MN:  37 F
Crane Lake, MN:  37 F
Eveleth, MN:  36 F
Phillips, WI:  37 F
Embarrass, MN:  35 F
3 E of Orr, MN:  37 F

Weather Tidbits:

*High temperature of 38 degrees at the Duluth Airport on Saturday, May 14th was the coldest high temperature on the 14th of May since 1921 (95 years ago)

*Dating back to 1874, 14th of May (142 years) -- Only 5 on record with a high temperature failing to reach at least 40 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.
 
May 14, 1907 (33 degrees)  
May 14, 1913 (35 degrees)
May 14, 1921 (35 degrees)
May 14, 1974 (39 degrees)
May 14, 2016 (38 degrees)

*0.1" snowfall total at the Duluth Airport on May 13th -- First measurable snow of at least 0.1" since April 13th.

No record low temperatures at Duluth, Minnesota during this cold snap but it was close!

May 13th:  Low temperature:  32 degrees -- Record low 22 degrees in 1997.
May 14th:  Low temperature:  28 degrees -- Record low 27 degrees in 1921.
May 15th:  Low temperature:  28 degrees -- Record low 27 degrees in 2004.

*2nd coldest low temperature on record at the Duluth Airport for May 14th and 15th.

No record low temperatures at International Falls, Minnesota during this cold snap!

May 13th:  Low temperature:  30 degrees -- Record low 22 degrees in 1997.
May 14th:  Low temperature:  27 degrees -- Record low 24 degrees in 2004.
May 15th:   Low temperature:  24 degrees -- Record low 24 degrees in 2004.

...Brief weather discussion for today, May 15, 2016...

Temperatures will be warming up by 15-20 degrees today with daytime highs topping out in the 50s to around 60 degrees which is near to below average for May 15th but certainly a lot milder than what we had Friday and Saturday.  Wind will remain an issue though with west or southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

An upper level disturbance over southern Manitoba Province this morning will move south/east into the Upper Midwest through tonight -- This system should go on to produce some rain showers in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon and tonight.  

The threat for thunderstorms is very low with this system although the NAM continues to show Lifted Indices falling to around 0 to -1C with pockets of CAPE of around 100-300 j/kg.  Lapse rates will be steep though generally around 7.5 c/km.  So although very low, an isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out in parts of the Northland later today or this evening.

Tim