Thursday, May 12, 2016

May 12, 2016 Weather Report: Near record cold possible the next few days; Drizzle, light rain showers, snow flurries and gusty winds on the way. Year to date and month to date precip totals included in this post

/Issued 5:37 PM CDT, Thursday, May 12, 2016/

Snow showers or flurries remain possible over parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin late Friday night-Saturday morning.  Here's the National Weather Service's forecast valid at 4 AM Saturday.



















Midwest year to date precipitation totals. Source, Regional Climate Centers.

**Duluth is still running quite a bit above average in terms of the amount of precipitation so far in 2016**

Duluth, MN:  9.07" (+2.27" above normal)
International Falls, MN:  6.45" (+1.89" above normal)
Minneapolis, MN:  7.57" (+0.14" above normal)

Eau Claire, WI:  9.21" (+1.85" above normal)
Rochester, MN:  8.26" (+0.17" above normal)
Fargo, ND:  4.14" (-0.75" below normal)

Sioux Falls, SD:  9.02" (+1.93" above normal)
Des Moines, IA:  7.88" (-2.26" below normal)
Chicago, IL:  10.72" (+0.05" above normal

Milwaukee, WI:  7.97" (-2.53" below normal)
Green Bay, WI:  8.54" (+0.90" above normal)
Marquette, MI:  12.06" (+0.41" above normal)















Midwest month to date precipitation totals.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

**May has been running somewhat drier than normal in Duluth**

Duluth, MN:  0.83" (-0.28" below normal)
International Falls, MN:  0.26" (-0.63" below normal)
Minneapolis, MN:  1.07" (-0.14" below normal)

Eau Claire, WI:  0.83" (-0.35" below normal)
Rochester, MN:  1.16" (-0.12" below normal)
Fargo, ND:  0.08" (-0.81" below normal)

Sioux Falls, SD:  0.63" (-0.53" below normal)
Des Moines, IA:  0.76" (-0.94" below normal)
Chicago, IL:  2.51" (+1.24" above normal)

Milwaukee, WI:  1.52" (+0.26" above normal)
Green Bay, WI:  0.72" (-0.20" below normal)
Marquette, MI:  0.27" (-0.79" below normal)



















24-hour rainfall map ending the morning of May 12, 2016.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.  A few additional totals not included on the map can be found below.

4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.49"
1 WSW of Saxon, WI:  0.35"
3 S of Ashland, WI:  0.33"
10 W of Gunflint Lake, MN:  0.26"
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  0.21"
25 E of Ely, MN:  0.20"
8 S of Bigfork, MN:  0.15"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.11"
Brainerd, MN:  0.08"
Hibbing, MN:  0.08"















Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.



















High temperature forecast for Friday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Roughly 10-20 degrees colder tomorrow compared to what we saw today.



















Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 12, 2016

Low pressure of 1006mb was over western Ontario Province this afternoon with the flow aloft beginning to turn northwest late this afternoon with colder air just off to our northwest.  At 4 PM temperatures at 850mb ranged from 0C in northwest Minnesota to -8C in central Manitoba to +2 to +4C in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures today weren't too bad for the middle of May with 50s and 60s common throughout our area which is near average for the 12th of May.  Skies were fairly cloudy though with some breaks for sun every now and then.  There's been some brief sprinkles or light showers this afternoon moving southeast across parts of the Northland but this activity wasn't amounting to much.  Winds today were out of the west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Through Saturday:  Low pressure at the surface and aloft won't move much as it spins to the north/northeast of Minnesota.  Expect mostly cloudy skies with patchy drizzle and spotty rain showers from time to time.  Colder air will continue to pour into the Northland with 850mb temperatures Friday morning ranging from around 0 to -6C from south to north; By Saturday morning H85 temperatures are expected to range from -8 to -12C from south to north...Very impressive for mid May.  Temperatures at 500mb will bottom out at around -25 to -30C by Saturday.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 30s and 40s, lows Friday night in the 20s and 30s.  Highs on Friday will be in the 40s with 50s in southern areas.

Note:  A low pressure disturbance is forecast to move southeast out of the northern Plains late tonight and Friday -- The bulk of the rain with this system should pass west-south of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin but a little bit of rain could clip southern sections of the area Friday morning into the early afternoon hours (Brainerd Lakes, Hinckley, Pine City, Siren, Hayward and Park Falls area)

Note:  Snow showers and flurries remain a possibility Friday morning over northern Minnesota, then over most of the Northland late Friday night and Saturday morning.

...Looking ahead...

Mainly dry weather during the day Sunday but some rain is possible spreading from NW-SE Sunday night as low pressure approaches from the northwest.  Next Monday and Tuesday could feature a few spotty showers as well but no organized storm systems impacting our area the way it looks now.  Expect below average temperatures from May 15-17.

***RECORD OR NEAR RECORD COLD POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS***

Duluth, Minnesota:

May 13th coldest high temperatures on record:

1)  40 degrees in 1947
2)  40 degrees in 1907
3)  42 degrees in 1966

May 14th coldest high temperatures on record:

1)  33 degrees in 1907
2)  35 degrees in 1921
3)  35 degrees in 1913

Note:  I don't think will be breaking into the top 3 for coldest maximum temperatures in Duluth but it will still be chilly.

International Falls, Minnesota:

May 13th coldest high temperatures on record:

1)  40 degrees in 1921
2)  41 degrees in 2004
3)  43 degrees in 2008

May 14th coldest high temperatures on record:

1)  39 degrees in 2004
2)  41 degrees in 2009
3)  43 degrees in 2008

Note:  Certainly possible that a top 3 coldest maximum temperature occurs at International Falls on the 13th or 14th.

Low temperature records:

Duluth, Minnesota:

May 14th:

1)  27 degrees in 1921
2)  29 degrees in 1945
3)  29 degrees in 1937

International Falls, Minnesota:

1)  24 degrees in 2004
2)  24 degrees in 1921
3)  25 degrees in 2008

Note:  Record or near record cold low temperature is possible at both Duluth and International Falls on May 14th.

Normal temperatures for May 13th at Duluth.

High:  62
Low:  40

Sunrise Friday:  5:36 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:35 PM CDT

Tim