Sunday, May 1, 2016

May 1, 2016 Weather Report - Dry on Monday; Spotty showers/maybe even a t-storm on Tuesday

/Issued 7:32 PM CDT, Sunday, May 1, 2016/

Looks like a fairly mild week with even warmer temperatures possible late this week.  Image below is from today's GFS model (18z run) valid for this Friday, May 6.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com














Last week's temperature departure map.  Below average temperatures in all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
















Last week's precipitation departure map.  Above average precipitation in most of the Northland with the wettest areas of around +2" above normal centered near the Brainerd Lakes and also in northwest Wisconsin.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















April 2016 climate summaries for select cities

Duluth, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  37.7 degrees
Departure:  -1.9 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  2.40"
Departure:  -0.03" below normal

Total snowfall:  9.8"
Departure:  +2.9" above normal

International Falls, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  37.3 degrees
Departure:  -2.0 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  2.11"
Departure:  +0.18" above normal

Total snowfall:  4.9"
Departure:  -1.5" below normal

Twin Cities, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  48.1 degrees
Departure:  +0.6 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  2.84"
Departure:  +0.18" above normal

Total snowfall:  0.5"
Departure:  -1.5" below normal

**3 thunderstorm days**

St. Cloud, Minnesota:

Average temperature:  44.8 degrees
Departure:  +0.2 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  1.74"
Departure:  -0.83" below normal

Total snowfall:  1.6"
Departure:  -1.4" below normal

**2 thunderstorm days**

Eau Claire, Wisconsin:

Average temperature:  45.7 degrees
Departure:  -0.3 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  2.56"
Departure:  -0.19" below normal

Total snowfall:  1.8"
Departure:  -0.1" below normal

**2 thunderstorm days**

Marquette, Michigan:

Average temperature:  33.8 degrees
Departure:  -4.1 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  3.83"
Departure:  +0.82" above normal

Total snowfall:  40.9"
Departure:  +26.4" above normal

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

April 24-30, 2016

High temperatures:

4/24:  41 F/-13 degrees below normal
4/25:  36 F/-18 degrees below normal
4/26:  44 F/-11 degrees below normal
4/27:  45 F/-10 degrees below normal
4/28:  49 F/-7 degrees below normal
4/29:  52 F/-4 degrees below normal
4/30:  50 F/-7 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

4/24:  35 F/+1 degree above normal
4/25:  32 F/-2 degrees below normal
4/26:  34 F/Normal
4/27:  32 F/-3 degrees below normal
4/28:  31 F/-4 degrees below normal
4/29:  29 F/-7 degrees below normal
4/30:  35 F/-1 degree below normal

Total precipitation:  1.69"
Normal:  0.68"
Departure:  +1.01" above normal

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 1, 2016

Not too bad as we begin the month of May.  High pressure remained in control of our weather today.  There were some clouds especially around Lake Superior this morning which gave way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon, elsewhere skies were generally sunny.  High temperatures were in the mid 50s to low 60s with 40s closer to Lake Superior.  Winds were out of the north or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (May 1)

Clear to partly cloudy skies with lows in the 30s to around 40 degrees with 20s possible in the traditional cold spots.  Evening winds out of the north or east at 10 to 20 mph turning light and variable at around 10 mph later in the night.

Monday and Monday night (May 2)

Partly to mostly sunny skies on Monday with highs mainly in the 60s with 50s in far northeast Minnesota.  Lows Monday night under partly cloudy skies will mainly be in the 40s.  Winds will be out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph tomorrow and west or southwest tomorrow night at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (May 3-5)

A cold front is forecast to drop south and through the Northland on Tuesday, this front plus some additional energy moving south out of Ontario Province will combine with colder temperatures aloft, steepening lapse rates and weak instability to produce a few showers in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday.  The threat for thunderstorms is fairly low but an isolated storm could develop during the afternoon/evening hours especially in northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with lows Tuesday night in the 30s and 40s.

Cooler but dry on Wednesday with highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees (Cooler along the South Shore of Lake Superior)  Lows Wednesday night will be in the 30s.

Dry on Thursday with highs in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(May 6-11)

Near to above average temperatures are forecast during the long range with the greatest chance for above average temperatures in the 60s and 70s occurring on the 5th-6th the way it looks now.  Could be some showers around the area between the 7th-11th but computer model differences remain quite large during that aforementioned time period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Clear.  Low 32 to 37.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph turning light and variable at around 10 mph after Midnight.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.  Wind becoming west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 63 to 68.

.Tuesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 48 to 53.

.Wednesday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 58 to 63.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  58
Low:   37

Sunrise Monday:  5:51 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:20 PM CDT

Tim