Saturday, April 30, 2016

April 30, 2016 Weather Report - Long range outlook for May in this post; Gusty east winds will finally diminish and shift to the west by Monday in Duluth

/Issued 9:06 PM CDT, Saturday, April 30, 2016/

Average number of tornadoes during the month of May in Minnesota is 6 and in Wisconsin 3 based on 1989-2013 average - See map below.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.













Minnesota storm reports map for 2016 through April 29th.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports
Green dots=Large hail reports (1.00" or greater in diameter)
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58 mph or stronger)

So far this year:  7 severe weather reports.

Large hail:  3 reports
Tornadoes:  2 reports
Damaging wind:  2 reports




















Wisconsin storm reports map for 2016 through April 29th.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Green dots=Large hail reports (1.00" or greater in diameter)
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58 mph or stronger)

So far this year:  10 severe weather reports.

Large hail:  9 reports
Damaging wind:  1 report




















U.S. Tornadoes for 2016 - Through April 29th.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Below average number of tornadoes so far this year.

Actual:  346
Normal to date:  492

The most active tornado day so far this year:  February 23rd with 52 tornadoes.













Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Here's the outlook for May per CFS model.

Temperature anomaly forecast

Yellow, orange and red colors=Above average temperatures

Blue colors=Below average temperatures

White areas=Near normal temperatures














Precipitation outlook for May.

Yellow=Below average precipitation

Green=Above average precipitation

White areas=Near normal precipitation














May climate averages for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

Temperature:  51.4 degrees
Precipitation:  3.23"
Snowfall:  0.4"

Average temperatures for May:

1st)  High:  57 F / Low:  36 F
31st)  High:  67 F/ Low:  45 F

Warmest May on record:  57.4 degrees in 1977
Coldest May on record:  38.8 degrees in 1907

Wettest May on record:  7.99" in 1879
Driest May on record:  0.15" in 1976

Snowiest May on record:  8.1" in 1954

Astronomical data for May:

Sunrise on the 1st:  5:53 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st:  5:19 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  8:20 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st:  8:54 PM CDT

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  April 30, 2016

April ends of a seasonable note as high temperatures topped out in the 50s to lower 60s but cooler 40s were found near Lake Superior.  Sky conditions varied between mostly sunny and partly sunny.  Winds were out of the east or northeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Sunday night (April 30-May 1)

High pressure will remain in control of our weather resulting in partly to at times a mostly cloudy sky.  Low temperatures tonight will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with 20s possible in the traditional cold spots.  Highs Sunday will be in the 50s to lower 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Lows Sunday night will be in the 30s to lower 40s.  Winds tonight and Sunday will be out of the north or northeast at 10 to 20 mph.  Winds Sunday night will shift to the west or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Monday through Wednesday (May 2-4)

We might be dealing with a few spotty showers at times on Monday and Tuesday thanks to some colder air aloft which will drop south into the Northland, this combined with some energy approaching from the north might be enough to trigger a few showers for Monday and Tuesday.  Not looking a lot of instability at the moment but with the cold temps aloft and mid level lapse rates approaching 6.0 c/km a stray thunderstorm can't be ruled out.  Dry weather returns on Wednesday.

High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the 60s with low temperatures Monday night and Tuesday night in the 30s and 40s.  Cooler temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(May 5-10)

Near to above average temperatures are expected during the long range with the greatest chance for above average temperatures in the 60s and 70s occurring from the 6th-8th the way it looks now.  Prospects for rain are quite low from May 5-10.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind becoming west to southwest around 10 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 60 to 65.

.Monday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 62 to 67.

.Tuesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 48 to 53.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  57
Low:  36

Sunrise Sunday:  5:53 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   8:19 PM CDT

Tim