Tuesday, April 26, 2016

April 26, 2016 Weather Report - Gusty east wind continues near Lake Superior for the next few days

/Issued 7:00 PM CDT, Tuesday, April, 26, 2016/

Closing in on 300 warnings so far today (April 26) The bulk of them have been severe thunderstorm warnings (Blue polygons)  Only 11 tornado warnings (Red polygons) so far with just one preliminary tornado report in southern Kansas this afternoon. Source, http://www.nws.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/index.html













Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms during the past 12 hours across the central Plains and Ohio Valley.

















Visible satellite image from late this afternoon shows clearing skies from NE-SW as dry air pushes south out of Ontario Province and Lake Superior.
















Active tornado (red) or severe thunderstorm (blue) watches that are in effect thru the evening hours.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.















So far no tornadoes as of 6 PM today, but here's where tornadoes are most common on the 26th of April based on climatology (1982-2011) Today's potential outbreak fits in nicely with where severe storms/tornadoes tend to occur in late April.  Source, NOAA; Storm Prediction Center.















Quite an impressive visible satellite image from late this afternoon, April 26, 2016 -- An explosion of severe thunderstorms from central and eastern Kansas south through Oklahoma into parts of Texas, other severe storms farther east in Missouri.  Source, http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/













13 consecutive above average temperature months at Duluth, Minnesota (March 2015 - March 2016)  Will this streak be broken this month?  Going into today the average temperature for April was -1.2 degrees below average -- Temperatures for the rest of April will likely be below average in Duluth and if this verifies, then April 2016 will be the first below average temperature month since February 2015 (Over one year ago)




















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Rainfall reports for April 25-26, 2016 thru 7 AM CDT April 26
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.16"
International Falls, MN:  0.71"
Brainerd, MN:  0.13"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.24"
Hibbing, MN:  0.22"

Hayward, WI:  0.55"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.19"
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN:  1.02"
25 E of Ely, MN:  0.33"
Cook, MN:  0.58"

Cotton, MN:  0.36"
Duluth, MN (NWS)  0.23"
Embarrass, MN:  0.31"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.16"
10 W of Gunflint Lake, MN:  0.29"

4 E of Island Lake, MN:  0.28"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.82"
3 E of Orr, MN:  0.84"
Butternut, WI:  1.00"
1 WSW of Saxon, WI:  0.59"
Mercer, WI:  0.41"
Park Falls, WI:  0.54"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.58"

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  April 26, 2016

High pressure over Ontario Province has been advecting dry air south/west into the Northland today, this has resulted in clearing skies from NE-SW with high temperatures in the upper 40s to low/mid 50s with upper 30s closer to Lake Superior.  Still breezy near Lake Superior today with east winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Elsewhere winds were out of the east or northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Wednesday night (April 26-27)

High pressure will remain to our north while low pressure heads slowly east/northeast through the central Plains -- Expect partly to at times mostly cloudy skies through tomorrow night with gusty east winds persisting near Lake Superior.  Most if not all the rain associated with the Plains low is expected to stay south of the Northland through Wednesday night.  Low temperatures tonight and Wednesday night will mainly be in the 30s but a few spots up north could drop into the 20s tonight, highs on Wednesday should be similar to today with 40s and 50s expected but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Winds through Wednesday night will be out of the east or northeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (April 28-30)

The weather pattern changes little during the Thursday-Saturday time frame...High pressure will remain to our north with low pressure to our south/east.  Generally dry weather for our area late this week with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  Low temperatures Thursday night and Friday night should mainly be in the 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(May 1-6)

Near to below average temperatures on May 1-2 followed by near to possibly above average temperatures from the 3rd-6th...There is a potential for near 70 degree high temperatures in parts of the Northland next week especially during the mid to late portion of the week.  Looks pretty dry across our area as well during the long range.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday...  Windy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 42 to 47 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph.

.Wednesday night...  Windy.  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  55
Low:   35

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:59 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:14 PM CDT

Tim