Sunday, April 24, 2016

April 24, 2016 Weather Report - Rain and fog along with strong E/NE winds through Monday (Gale warning continues for Lake Superior) Some snow possible tomorrow in extreme northeast Minnesota

/Issued 5:49 PM CDT, Sunday, April 24, 2016/

5 PM water vapor satellite image and Vorticity.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/
















Radar loop ending at 5:30 PM CDT, April 24, 2016.  Source, WSI.

Heavier rainfall in darker green and yellow colors.














More rain! Here's the 18z 4km NAM rainfall forecast through Monday.

















Gale warning remains in effect through Monday for western Lake Superior.  Maximum wave heights greater than 10 feet, possibly as high as 17-19 feet.  More information at the link below.

Gale warning -- http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=gale%20warning
















Rain could change to wet snow on Monday in extreme northeast Minnesota with a few inches of snow accumulation possible in the higher terrain, Gunflint Trail area over the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Source, 19z RAP model.




















Surface map forecast from the Weather Prediction Center.

Green=Rain

Late tonight.















Monday morning.















Monday evening.















Last week's temperature departure map.  Above average temperatures last week in most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
















Last week's precipitation departure map.  Above average precipitation in far northern Minnesota and also in parts of southwest Minnesota with generally below average precipitation elsewhere.
















An outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is possible on Tuesday, April 26 -- The image below is from today's 12z GFS model (300mb wind forecast) A corridor of strong winds aloft ejecting out into the western High Plains Tuesday afternoon with another corridor of strong jet stream winds to the northeast over the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley -- The potential for a severe weather outbreak is greatest in parts of the central Plains on Tuesday.
















Pretty cool satellite loop from late this afternoon as thunderstorms explode from eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota down through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
















Headlines map as of 5:15 PM CDT, April 24, 2016.  Source, Intellicast.com

Dark red=Tornado watch
Light yellow=Severe thunderstorm watch

Light red=Tornado warning
Yellow=Severe thunderstorm warning
















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, MN - Airport location.

April 17-23, 2016

High temperatures:

4/17:  69 F/+19 degrees above normal
4/18:  46 F/-5 degrees below normal
4/19:  49 F/-2 degrees below normal
4/20:  64 F/+12 degrees above normal
4/21:  68 F/+16 degrees above normal
4/22:  44 F/-9 degrees below normal
4/23:  53 F/Normal

Low temperatures:

4/17:  46 F/+15 degrees above normal
4/18:  34 F/+3 degrees above normal
4/19:  36 F/+4 degrees above normal
4/20:  42 F/+10 degrees above normal
4/21:  37 F/+5 degrees above normal
4/22:  31 F/-2 degrees below normal
4/23:  30 F/-3 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  Trace
Normal:  0.59"
Departure:  -0.59" below normal

*Preliminary rainfall reports for April 24, 2016*
Source:  MesoWest.com

Note:  Totals listed below thru 3 PM today.

4 S of Saint Mathias, MN:  3.45"
Hayward, WI:  1.84"
Siren, WI:  1.49"
Minong, WI:  1.45"
Barnes, WI:  1.31"
Cass Lake, MN:  1.27"
Solon Springs, WI:  1.18"

McGregor, MN:  1.11"
Hinckley, MN:  1.04"
Brainerd, MN:  1.03"
Phillips, WI:  1.02"
Aitkin, MN:  0.83"
Hill City, MN:  0.83"

Cloquet, MN:  0.78"
Saginaw, MN:  0.70"
Clam Lake, WI:  0.69"
Superior, WI:  0.68"
Glidden, WI:  0.65"
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.55"

Isabella, MN:  0.20"
Ely, MN:  0.13"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.13"

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  April 24, 2016

Low pressure of 996mb was over north central South Dakota at 4 PM today.  There was a stationary front across south central Minnesota with a cold front extending from eastern South Dakota to central Nebraska.  It's been a rainy Sunday especially along and south of Highway 2 with locally heavy rainfall totals of greater than 1" across east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin -- Rain has been quite a bit lighter with mostly scattered rain showers occurring today in far northern Minnesota and Arrowhead.  Highs today were in the 30s and 40s which is below average by 5-15 degrees for late April.  Winds were the other big story today with east winds in the 15-25 mph range with gusts to 40 mph around Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (April 24)

Rain continues tonight as low pressure moves slowly east into eastern South Dakota.  Areas of heavy rain are possible tonight with favorable jet dynamics in place along with ample amounts of moisture, the heaviest rains are expected to fall over east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin where isolated thunderstorms are possible.  Low temperatures will be in the 30s to lower 40s with east or northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 40 mph especially near Lake Superior.

Monday and Monday night (April 25)

Low pressure will track across southern Minnesota on Monday before moving off to the south/east Monday night.  Rain will continue tomorrow with some wet snow, sleet or freezing rain even possible especially in far northeast Minnesota.  Highs on Monday will be in the 30s and 40s with east or northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 40 mph near Lake Superior.

Areas of light rain Monday night with possibly some wet snow or sleet in far northeast Minnesota.  Low temperatures will be in the 30s with east or northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts continuing near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (April 26-28)

Low pressure is forecast to move out into the central Plains on Tuesday with this low then tracking slowly toward the east/northeast through Thursday -- Most of the rain associated with this system should stay south of the Northland the way it looks now.  Gusty east winds will likely occur near Lake Superior from Tuesday through Thursday due to a strong pressure gradient between the Plains low and high pressure which will be sitting over Ontario Province.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Low temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday night will mainly be in the 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(April 29-May 4)

There's another storm showing up on the long range computer models for next weekend (30th-May 1st)  Right now it looks like this system will also be too far south to produce any rain here in the Northland.  Below average temperatures are forecast from April 29-May 4.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Windy.  Rain, drizzle and fog.  Low 34 to 37.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts.

.Monday...  Windy.  Occasional rain.  Drizzle and fog.  High 34 to 37.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts.

.Monday night...  Light rain possible.  Breezy.  Low 32 to 34.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

.Tuesday...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

.Wednesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Thursday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  54
Low:   34

Sunrise Monday:  6:03 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:11 PM CDT


Tim