Sunday, April 10, 2016

April 10, 2016 Weather Report - Brisk winds, cooler with some snow flakes late tonight-Monday; What's the average date of the first 70 degree high temperature in Duluth? Answer in the blog

/Issued 7:12 PM CDT, Sunday, April 10, 2016/

7-day precipitation forecast valid through Sunday, April 17, 2016.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.  A developing upper level ridge near the Great Lakes should keep most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on the dry side for the next several days, dry in terms of no significant amount of rain or snow, we could have some nuisance snow showers around the area tonight and Monday.
















Last week's temperature departure map.  Yes it was a cold one!
















Last week's precipitation departure map.  Near to above average precipitation last week in far northeast Minnesota and in parts of northwest Wisconsin -- Below average in western-southern portions of the Northland.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota - Airport location

April 3-9, 2016

High temperatures:

4/3:  29 F/-14 degrees below normal
4/4:  32 F/-11 degrees below normal
4/5:  39 F/-5 degrees below normal
4/6:  35 F/-9 degrees below normal
4/7:  34 F/-11 degrees below normal
4/8:  30 F/-15 degrees below normal
4/9:  30 F/-16 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

4/3:  20 F/-5 degrees below normal
4/4:  20 F/-5 degrees below normal
4/5:  23 F/-3 degrees below normal
4/6:  30 F/+4 degrees above normal
4/7:  29 F/+3 degrees above normal
4/8:  9 F/-18 degrees below normal
*4/9:  2 F/-25 degrees below normal

*=Record low temperature for the date.

Total precipitation:  0.56"
Normal:  0.48"
Departure:  +0.08" above normal

***A look at when the Duluth Airport has recorded their first 70 degree high temperature dating back to 2000***

Note:  The mean date for the first 70 degree high temperature is April 21st (1981-2010)

2000:  March 7th
2001:  April 29th
2002:  April 14th
2003:  April 14th
2004:  April 28th

2005:  April 18th
2006:  April 23rd
2007:  March 26th
2008:  May 16th
2009:  April 17th

2010:  March 31st
2011:  May 11th
2012:  March 17th
2013:  May 6th
2014:  May 18th
2015:  April 12th
2016:  ???

Since 2000:

*Earliest first occurrence of a maximum temperature of 70 F:  March 7th, 2000.

*Latest first occurrence of a maximum temperature of 70 F:  May 16th, 2008.

Note:  Last year's first 70 degree high temperature occurred on April 12th, it will be later this year.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  April 10, 2016

Not a bad spring day considering the streak of chilly/snowy weather lately.  Low pressure of 1000mb was over western Ontario Province late this afternoon with a cold front centered well to the south/east of the Northland now.  This system produced a little bit of snow last night into early this morning over the Arrowhead of Minnesota and in parts of northwest Wisconsin with snowfall amounts generally of 1" or less reported in a few locations.

A mix of sun and clouds were common this morning into the mid-afternoon hours but the trend toward cloudier sky conditions have occurred late this afternoon in most of the Northland.  Highs today ranged from the 30s in far northern Minnesota to the 40s and 50s in east central Minnesota up to Duluth and Two Harbors and east through all of northwest Wisconsin.  Winds today shifted to the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (April 10)

Low pressure will be centered to our north/northeast tonight.  Mostly cloudy skies with occasional flurries and snow showers can be expected in parts of the Northland tonight with lows in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible.

Monday and Monday night (April 11)

Scattered snow showers and flurries tomorrow as cyclonic flow occurs behind an area of low pressure which moves into eastern Canada, it will be cooler on Monday with highs mainly in the 30s, maybe a 40 degree reading in far southern areas.  Winds will be gusty and out of the northwest at 15 to 30 mph.  High pressure settles into the area Monday night resulting in clear to partly cloudy skies.  Low temperatures will be in the teens and 20s with single digits in northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tuesday through Thursday (April 12-14)

Dry on Tuesday with highs in the 30s and 40s -- High pressure moves off to the east on Tuesday while a warm front moves into the Upper Midwest.  Could be a little bit of snow or mixed precipitation over portions of the Northland Tuesday night-early Wednesday morning although whatever type of precipitation ends up falling shouldn't amount to much the way it looks now.  Lows Tuesday night will be in the 20s and 30s.

Warming up and mainly dry for Wednesday and Thursday.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s on Wednesday and Thursday but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(April 15-20)

Above average temperatures are expected during the long range with the warmest days probably occurring on the 15th-16th, and perhaps again around the 19th-20th.  Note:  It will be cooler though near Lake Superior late this week into the weekend.  High temperatures in the 60s look quite likely later this week inland from Lake Superior and it's not out of the question that some locations hit 70 degrees.  Mainly dry weather for our area as well from the 15th-20th the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible late.  Low 22 to 27.  Wind west at 15 to 30 mph.

.Monday...  Breezy.  Considerable cloudiness.  Scattered snow showers or flurries.  Cooler.  High 33 to 38.  Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Monday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

.Tuesday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 33.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 48 to 53 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 52 to 57 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  47
Low:   28

Sunrise Monday:  6:27 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   7:52 PM CDT

Tim