Thursday, March 31, 2016

March 31, 2016 Weather Report - March 2016 5th wettest on record at Duluth, MN; 1-2" of snow on the way late Friday night

/Issued 7:21 PM CDT, Thursday, March 31, 2016/

An impressive temperature gradient on the way for Sunday.  Source, 18z NAM.
















Check out this lightning map -- A plot of all the lightning strikes during the past 48 hours (Red, orange and yellow colors on the map)  Source, http://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/america/index.php?bo_showmap=usa
















Warnings map for March 30, 2016.  Source, http://www.nws.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/index.html

Red polygons=Tornado warning
Blue polygons=Severe thunderstorm warning
Green polygons=Flash flood warning













Warnings map for March 31, 2016 thru 7 PM CDT.  Source, http://www.nws.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/index.html













Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Friday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Note:  3.95" of precipitation at the Duluth Airport this month -- This makes March 2016 the 5th wettest on record.  Top 5 list below.

1)  5.12" 1965
2)  4.97" 1917
3)  4.43" 1977
4)  4.30" 1894
5)  3.95" 2016

Weather Summary for March 31, 2016
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A little bit of something for everyone.  Low pressure of 992mb has moved into northern Lower Michigan early this evening while a strong upper level low drops south/southeast through South Dakota today.  The low to our east brought some rain to far southeast parts of northwest Wisconsin today while in Northeast Minnesota there's been scattered rain showers which have mixed with ice pellets and snow in a few spots.  There was also some drizzle and fog near Lake Superior especially before Noon.  High temperatures today were in the 30s and 40s with a few spots in Northern Minnesota around 50 degrees.  Winds today were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 31)

Scattered showers of rain, sleet and snow tonight as a cold front moves southeast through the Northland.  Snow accumulations of less than 1" tonight.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with north or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Friday and Friday night (April 1)

The month of April will start off on a cool note.  A few flurries or snow showers are possible tomorrow morning, dry tomorrow afternoon, then some snow returns Friday night as a rather strong but quick moving area of low pressure drops south/east out of Manitoba Province -- Could see around 1-2" of snow in parts of the Northland late Friday night.

Highs tomorrow in the 20s and 30s with lows tomorrow night in the teens and 20s.  Winds will generally be out of the northwest, although a shift to the south/west will occur for a time Friday night -- Wind speeds generally in the 10 to 20 mph range.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

Saturday through Monday (April 2-4)

Lake effect snow showers on Saturday along the South Shore of Lake Superior as cold air and NW winds blow over the lake.  Mostly dry in the remainder of the Northland.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Saturday night in the teens and 20s.

A strong temperature gradient will setup on Sunday and an area of low pressure will ride southeast along this thermal gradient -- 60s and maybe even 70 degree high temps are expected on Sunday over Southern Minnesota while 20s cover Northeast Minnesota, low pressure will likely move southeast out of North Dakota and into Southwest Wisconsin on Sunday, this system should produce some snow in parts of Northeast Minnesota with a mixture of precipitation possible in East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  At this time it appears that a band of 1" to as much as 3" of snow could accumulate Sunday and Sunday night mainly north/northeast of Highway 2.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Sunday night in the teens and 20s.

Mainly dry on Monday with highs in the 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(April 5-10)

Below average temperatures are forecast through the long range.  Another area of low pressure looks like it will affect the Northland from the 6th-8th bringing another round of rain and snow to the area.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Scattered rain, sleet and snow showers.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible mainly early.  High 32 to 37.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday night...  Snow developing mainly after Midnight.  Snowfall accumulations of 1-2" possible.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind west, becoming south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Flurries possible early otherwise partly to mostly sunny.  High 27 to 32.

.Saturday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or mixed precipitation possible.  High 30 to 35.

.Sunday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 20 to 25.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  41
Low:  24

Sunrise Friday:  6:47 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   7:38 PM CDT

Tim