Wednesday, March 2, 2016

March 2, 2016 Weather Report - A few inches of snow on Friday followed by melting snow and a chance of rain and maybe some T-storms early next week. February and winter 2015-16 climate stats included in this post

/Issued 4:35 PM CST, Wednesday, March 2, 2016/

No big changes seen in today's computer model runs concerning Friday's snow event -- Looks like will get 1-4" of snow in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Friday into Friday evening.















Average number of tornadoes during the month of March (1989-2013)  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Minnesota averages one tornado this month while Wisconsin's average is zero.













Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Meteorological winter December 1, 2015 - February 29, 2016 temperature departure map.  Warmer than average in all of Minnesota and Wisconsin.
















Meteorological winter December 1, 2015 - February 29, 2016 precipitation departure map.  Near to above average precipitation in most of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

















February 2016 climate summaries for select cities

Duluth, MN:

Average temperature:  17.3 degrees
Departure:  +2.2 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.83"
Departure:  +0.02" above normal

Total snowfall:  12.2"
Departure:  -0.2" below normal

International Falls, MN:

Average temperature:  12.4 degrees
Departure:  +2.1 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.78"
Departure:  +0.21" above normal

Total snowfall:  11.4"
Departure:  +0.6" above normal

Twin Cities, MN:

Average temperature:  24.9 degrees
Departure:  +4.0 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  1.09"
Departure:  +0.32" above normal

Total snowfall:  12.1"
Departure:  +4.4" above normal

St. Cloud, MN:

Average temperature:  22.3 degrees
Departure:  +5.3 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.63"
Departure:  +0.04" above normal

Total snowfall:  7.2"
Departure:  +0.2" above normal

Marquette, MI:

Average temperature:  18.4 degrees
Departure:  +2.9 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  2.66"
Departure:  +0.52" above normal

Total snowfall:  35.8"
Departure:  -0.1" below normal

Meteorological winter 2015-16 weather stats for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Note:  Meteorological winter is the period from December 1, 2015 - February 29, 2016

Average temperature:  18.8 degrees
Normal:  13.3 degrees
Departure:  +5.5 degrees above normal

Note:  This was the 9th warmest winter on record.

Total precipitation:  5.58"
Average:  2.98"
Departure:  +2.60" above normal

Note:  This was the 10th wettest winter on record.

Total snowfall:  49.8"
Normal:  49.5"
Departure:  +0.3" above normal

19 sub-zero low temperature days this winter at Duluth, Minnesota; 37 sub-zero days last winter; And 65 sub-zero days during the winter of 2013-14.  Note:  The normal during a winter season is around 35 days.

4174 total heating degree days this winter which was -525 below the normal of 4699; Last winter we ended up with 4624 heating degree days from December through February.

Meteorological winter 2015-16 weather stats for International Falls, Minnesota

Note:  Meteorological winter is the period from December 1, 2015 - February 29, 2016

Average temperature:  14.9 degrees
Normal:  8.1 degrees
Departure:  +6.8 degrees above normal

Note:  This was the 6th warmest winter on record.

Total precipitation:  2.44"
Normal:  2.00"
Departure:  +0.44" above normal

Total snowfall:  26.3"
Normal:  40.8"
Departure:  -14.5" below normal

Note:  This was the 16th least snowiest winter on record.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  March 2, 2016

Partly cloudy to sunny skies in far Northern Minnesota and over the Arrowhead while mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies were common farther south and west.  There's been some echoes showing up on radar but most of this has been in the form of virga or precipitation that isn't reaching the ground, with that said a few spots may have seen a few snow flurries today but nothing major.  Highs today were in the 20s to around 30 degrees.  Winds were out of the south, southwest or southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 2)

High pressure will be near the Upper Midwest tonight while a couple areas of low pressure drop southeast out of the Western High Plains region -- Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be common tonight with lows in the single digits, teens and lower 20s.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday night (March 3)

High pressure will remain in control of our weather tomorrow with partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 20s and 30s, winds will be out of the south, east or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.  Low temperatures Thursday night will range from the single digits to around 20 degrees with winds turning to the south or southeast later in the night.

Note:  Scattered flurries and light snow showers are possible tonight and Thursday along the North Shore of Lake Superior and in other parts of Northern Minnesota but snowfall amounts should remain very light, generally less than a half inch with the exception to this being along the North Shore of Lake Superior generally from Silver Bay northeast to the Arrowhead where 1-2" of snow could accumulate by Thursday afternoon.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (March 4-6)

Snow on Friday...An area of low pressure is forecast to move southeast out of the Northern Plains on Friday, this system should bring some snow to the Northland from Friday into Friday evening with a few inches of accumulation looking quite likely at the moment.  Temperatures Friday and Friday night will be in the 20s and 30s.

Mainly dry on Saturday with highs in the 30s to lower 40s.  Lows Saturday night will be in the teens and 20s.

Sunday for the most part also looks dry but a few rain showers could develop as warm air advection begins.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s with 50s possible in Southwest portions of the Northland.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(March 7-12)

Above average temperatures on the way for next week with a chance for rain on Monday and Tuesday (7th-8th)  Low pressure is forecast to lift northeast out of the Rockies early next week with southerly winds ahead of this system drawing warm and moist air north into the Upper Midwest -- There is also a chance for a few thunderstorms Monday night or Tuesday as elevated instability increases in the Northland, after this system passes the rest of the long range (9th-12th) might end up dry but several other lows combined with an upper level trough covering the Western U.S. could result in more unsettled weather at times in the Upper Midwest later next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind variable at 4 to 13 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 26 to 31.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow during the afternoon.  High 27 to 32.

.Friday night...  Snow mainly before Midnight.  Total snowfall accumulations of around 2" possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 24 to 27.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 33 to 38.

.Saturday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Sunday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  29
Low:  12

Sunrise Thursday:  6:43 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   5:58 PM CST

Tim