Monday, March 14, 2016

March 14, 2016 Weather Report - Wicked March storm arrives on Tuesday, lingers through the end of the week; Heavy amounts of rain and snow expected (Winter storm watch issued for far Northeast Minnesota)

/Issued 4:31 PM CDT, Monday, March 14, 2016/

Here's what were looking at this week; First rain, then snow, and in some parts of the Northland snow totals could reach one foot (12") by Thursday -- Most likely area for snow totals to reach a foot appears to be over the Arrowhead of Minnesota and along the Gunflint Trail in far Northeast Minnesota.












Winter storm watch in blue, flood warning in green.  More information at the links below.  Source, Aerisweather.com

WINTER STORM WATCH:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch

FLOOD WARNING:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=fgf&wwa=flood%20warning
















Surface map forecast for Tuesday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Green=Rain











































Source, 18z 4KM NAM.

















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Rainfall report for March 13-14, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  0.18"
7 NW of Brainerd, MN:  0.15"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.16"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.18"
Brainerd, MN:  0.07"

Hibbing, MN:  0.08"
Ashland, WI:  0.06"
Cook, MN:  0.06"
Embarrass, MN:  0.07"
3 E of Orr, MN:  0.09"

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  March 14, 2016

Unseasonably mild temperatures continued today.  Widespread fog, low clouds and drizzle this morning gave way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon in Northern Minnesota while low clouds lingered across Northwest Wisconsin, Northeast Minnesota and in far Eastern Minnesota.  Highs today were in the 40s and 50s with near 60 degree temperatures found over Western portions of the Northland, temperatures were cooler close to Lake Superior where highs maxed out in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.  Winds today were out of the west, south or east at around 10 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 14)

Areas of fog (Possibly dense) with patchy drizzle with occasional rain showers developing during the night as low pressure heads east into the Northern and Central Plains.  There will be some elevated instability in place as well tonight especially over Western-Southern parts of the area so a few thunderstorms might even develop in those areas.  Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s with east or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday night (March 15)

Rainy! A strong area of low pressure will extend from Southern Manitoba Province to the Central Plains -- The Central Plains low is then expected to lift northeast into Wisconsin by early Wednesday morning.

Rain on Tuesday and some of this rain could be moderate to heavy at times.  Areas of fog and drizzle with highs in the 40s and 50s with 30s near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the east or southeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph developing near Lake Superior.

Rain continues Tuesday night with rain mixing with and changing to snow in parts of Northeast Minnesota.  Lows will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with north or east winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

Wednesday through Friday (March 16-18)

Snow and rain should continue Wednesday and Thursday as a large low pressure system at the surface and aloft sits and spins over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest -- High temperatures are forecast to be in the 30s to around 40 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday with lows both nights in the 20s and 30s with teens in far Northeast Minnesota.

Lingering snow or rain showers possible on Friday with highs in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(March 19-24)

Below to near normal temperatures are expected during the long range.  Could be some snow or rain sometime during the 21st-23rd time frame.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog and drizzle could redevelop during the night.  Scattered showers possible late.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Windy.  Occasional rain.  Fog and drizzle also possible.  High 40 to 45 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph.

.Tuesday night...  Windy.  Occasional rain.  Rain could become mixed with or change to snow Overnight.  Low 33 to 35.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph.

.Wednesday...  Occasional snow or mixed rain and snow.  Some snow accumulation possible.  High 33 to 36.

.Wednesday night...  Snow possible.  Low 25 to 30.

.Thursday...  Snow showers possible.  High 30 to 35.

.Thursday night...  Snow showers possible.  Low 20 to 25.

.Friday...  Snow showers possible.  High 31 to 36.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  34
Low:  17

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:20 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:  7:15 PM CDT

Tim