Sunday, March 13, 2016

March 13, 2016 Weather Report - Light rain, some fog and drizzle tonight; Mild on Monday; Heavier rain possible on Tuesday with strong east winds near Lake Superior

/Issued 7:12 PM CDT, Sunday, March 13, 2016/

Potential is there for a wet week in Minnesota and Wisconsin with widespread 1-2"+ precipitation totals possible.  Here's the 7-day total precipitation forecast valid through March 20th, 2016.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.


















Snow could return by the middle of the week in parts of the Northland.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

4" or greater snowfall totals valid from 7 PM Tuesday through 7 PM Wednesday.

Green=40% probability for at least 4" of snow.
Blue=10% probability for at least 4" of snow.
















Total rainfall amounts for tonight per 22z HRRR model run; Not a lot of rain tonight with totals generally less than 0.25" in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Source, COD website.
















Blast furnace! Here's last week's temperature departure map.  +12 to +15 degrees above average throughout the Northland.  Incredible!
















Last week's precipitation departure map.  A dry week in most of the Northland with precipitation totals for the week finishing anywhere from 0.10-0.30" below normal.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















High temperature report for March 12, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  60 F
International Falls, MN:  60 F
Brainerd, MN:  64 F
Hibbing, MN:  62 F
Ashland, WI:  64 F
Hayward, WI:  67 F

Two Harbors, MN:  64 F
Ely, MN:  61 F
Orr, MN:  63 F
Cook, MN:  63 F
Crane Lake, MN:  61 F
Eveleth, MN:  63 F

Bigfork, MN:  64 F
Grand Rapids, MN:  63 F
Longville, MN:  66 F
Pine River, MN:  64 F
Aitkin, MN:  68 F
Moose Lake, MN:  68 F

Hinckley, MN:  68 F
Cloquet, MN:  63 F
McGregor, MN:  66 F
Walker, MN:  61 F
Superior, WI:  61 F
Solon Springs, WI:  66 F

Siren, WI:  69 F
Phillips, WI:  65 F
Cotton, MN:  63 F
Embarrass, MN:  60 F

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

March 6-12, 2016

High temperatures:

3/6:  51 F/+21 degrees above normal
3/7:  42 F/+11 degrees above normal
3/8:  48 F/+17 degrees above normal
3/9:  40 F/+8 degrees above normal
3/10:  40 F/+8 degrees above normal
3/11:  53 F/+21 degrees above normal
3/12:  60 F/+27 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

3/6:  25 F/+11 degrees above normal
3/7:  30 F/+16 degrees above normal
3/8:  34 F/+20 degrees above normal
3/9:  32 F/+17 degrees above normal
3/10:  28 F/+13 degrees above normal
3/11:  28 F/+12 degrees above normal
3/12:  33 F/+17 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.17"
Normal:  0.31"
Departure:  -0.14" below normal

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

*Winter of 2015-16:  87 consecutive days with a 1" or greater snow depth (December 16th-March 11th)  Note:  The snow depth dropped below 1" on March 12th.

*Winter of 2014-15:  122 consecutive days with a 1" or greater snow depth (November 11th-March 12th)

*Winter of 2013-14:  146 consecutive days with a 1" or greater snow depth (November 28th-April 22nd)

Note:  The average during a winter is 133 consecutive days with a 1" or greater snow depth, so this winter finished well below average by 46 days.

Record high temperature report for March 12, 2016

Duluth, Minnesota:

New record:  60 degrees
Old record:  55 degrees in 1903.

International Falls, Minnesota:

New record:  60 degrees
Old record:  56 degrees in 2015.

Twin Cities, Minnesota:

New record:  70 degrees
Old record:  69 degrees in 1990.

St. Cloud, Minnesota:

New record:  68 degrees
Old record:  67 degrees in 1990.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  March 13, 2016

Cloudier skies today compared to the past few days but temperatures were still on the mild side except near Lake Superior where an east wind increased today.  Highs were in the 40s and 50s with 30s near Lake Superior.  A frontal boundary was moving toward Western Minnesota today with southerly flow in place ahead of that front which is allowing moisture to increase in parts of the Upper Midwest as seen in the late afternoon dew points which were in the 40s to lower 50s in Western, Central and Southern Minnesota with PWATS of 0.60-0.80".  There's been some rain that has affected Western portions of the Northland today with mainly dry weather elsewhere.  Winds today were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 13)

Occasional rain showers with patchy fog and drizzle.  Mostly cloudy with lows in the 30s and 40s.  A cold front will wash out before it moves into the Northland tonight but moisture and enough forcing will remain in place to generate some showers through the night.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday and Monday night (March 14)

Low pressure will move into the Northern and Central Plains on Monday.  Occasional showers are possible early tomorrow morning and then again late Monday night -- Isolated thunderstorms are even possible tomorrow night over Southern parts of the area.  Highs on Monday will be in the 40s and 50s with 60s possible in Western areas where some clearing could take place by the afternoon, lows Monday night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

Tuesday through Thursday (March 15-17)

A potentially stormy mid week -- Exact details on how this storm plays out remains uncertain but the potential is there for a significant amount of precipitation with some of that falling in the form of snow.

Rain should be the main precipitation type over the entire Northland Tuesday and Tuesday night, some of the rain could be heavy at times and there is also a chance for a few embedded thunderstorms especially over Southern parts of the Northland.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with 30s near Lake Superior.  Lows Tuesday night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

Wednesday and Thursday will feature more chances for rain which could include some snow as colder temperatures move in as a large low pressure system cuts-off over the Great Lakes.  High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with lows Wednesday night in the 20s and 30s.

Note:  Several inches of snow could accumulate in some parts of the Northland from Wednesday into Thursday.

Note:  Strong east winds with gusts over 30 mph are possible near Lake Superior on Tuesday and possibly lingering into Wednesday.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(March 18-23)


Lingering chances for snow or rain showers continue on the 18th-19th.  More chances for rain or snow sometime during the 21st-23rd time frame.  Near to below average temperatures are expected during the long range.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy with occasional rain showers.  Patchy fog or drizzle could also develop during the night.  Low 35 to 39.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Patchy fog or drizzle possible.  High 48 to 53 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Breezy.  Occasional rain.  High 35 to 40.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph possible.

.Tuesday night...  Occasional rain.  Low 33 to 35.

.Wednesday...  Occasional rain or snow.  High 35 to 40.

.Wednesday night...  Rain or snow showers possible.  Low 30 to 35.

.Thursday...  Rain or snow showers possible.  High 35 to 40.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  33
Low:  17

Sunrise Monday:  7:22 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   7:14 PM CDT

Tim