Sunday, February 7, 2016

February 7, 2016 Weather Report - A warm first week of February but winter like temps return this week (Shocking!) Wind and some snow into Monday; Winter weather advisories in effect in parts of the Northland

/Issued 3:16 PM CST, Sunday, February 7, 2016/

Above average temperatures so far this month at both Duluth and International Falls, Minnesota - February is running +4.9 degrees warmer than average at Duluth and +7.7 degrees warmer than average at International Falls.  Will see these temperature departures drop quite a bit during the next 7 days but will probably warm up again after next weekend.  Blame the Godzilla El Nino!












Winter weather headlines map as of 3 PM today.  Source, Aerisweather.com

Purple=Winter weather advisory
Red=Blizzard warning
Pink=Winter storm warning

Winter weather advisory information:  http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/#2016-O-NEW-KDLH-WW-Y-0005/USCOMP-N0Q-201602071800
















Last week's temperature departure map.  +6 to +12 degrees above average in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
















Last week's precipitation departure map.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

January 31-February 6, 2016

High temperatures

1/31:  40 F/+20 degrees above normal
2/1:  30 F/+10 degrees above normal
2/2:  27 F/+6 degrees above normal
2/3:  19 F/-2 degrees below normal
2/4:  23 F/+2 degrees above normal
2/5:  26 F/+5 degrees above normal
2/6:  34 F/+12 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

1/31:  20 F/+18 degrees above normal
2/1:  22 F/+20 degrees above normal
2/2:  10 F/+8 degrees above normal
2/3:  -2 F/-5 degrees below normal
2/4:  0 F/-3 degrees below normal
2/5:  -4 F/-7 degrees below normal
2/6:  16 F/+13 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.15"
Normal:  0.17"
Departure:  -0.02" below normal

*Preliminary snowfall report for February 6-7, 2016*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Hoyt Lakes, MN (St. Louis County)  2.5"
Embarrass, MN (St. Louis County)  3.0"
Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  1.5"
3 W of Iron Junction, MN (St. Louis County)  2.0"
3 SE of Finland, MN (Lake County)  2.2"
Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)  2.1"
Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  3.5"
1 S of Cass Lake, MN (Cass County)  2.0"

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  February 7, 2016

Balmy late winter temperatures once again today with some spring like rain in some parts of the area and snow or a mixture of precipitation for others.  Strong area of low pressure averaging 998mb has moved into far Northeast Minnesota this afternoon with an upper level low pressure system also over Northern Minnesota this afternoon.  Periods of snow, rain and drizzle affected most of the Northland today - What kind of precipitation you saw depended on where you live, locations close to Lake Superior have seen mainly rain today while inland locations saw snow or a mix bag of precipitation.  Cold air has been slow to move in today with temperatures this afternoon still running in the upper 20s to middle 30s.  Winds today were out of southwest or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 7)

Low pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to slowly move toward the southeast tonight - This system will track from far Northeast Minnesota to Northern Lake Michigan by daybreak.  Light snow, snow showers and flurries will continue across the area tonight with some light rain/drizzle also likely early this evening especially close to Lake Superior and in portions of Northwest Wisconsin.  Colder temperatures and gusty winds move in tonight with lows in the single digits and teens.  Winds will shift to the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph possible.

Monday and Monday night (February 8)

Colder with brisk northwest winds! Snow showers and flurries will persist into Monday evening under a mostly cloudy to partly sunny sky on Monday and partly to mostly cloudy skies Monday night.  Low pressure will be moving over the Central/Eastern Great Lakes tomorrow which will result in some lingering snow in our area.  Highs will be in the single digits to around 20 degrees with lows in the single digits and teens below zero to single digits above zero.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

Note:  Colder air moving over Lake Superior combined with a favorable north to northwest wind will produce lake effect snow showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin beginning late tonight and lasting at least through Tuesday.  Several inches of snow will accumulate especially in parts of Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties.

Note:  Frigid wind chills in the single digits, teens and 20s below late tonight into Monday morning and once again Monday night into Tuesday morning in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (February 9-11)

Mainly dry in most of the Northland from Tuesday through Thursday.  High temperatures will be range from around zero to 10 above with low temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday night in the single digits and teens below zero but the typical cold spots will probably dip into the 20s below.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(February 12-17)

A massive blob of frigid arctic air will cover Central-Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. late this week/next weekend with the southwest edge of this arctic blast likely affecting the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on February 12th-13th, after that temperatures will moderate back to average or even above average from the 14th-17th, so basically the same old weather pattern we've seen this winter, quick shots of cold air followed by lengthy periods of mild-warm temperatures.  No major storms showing up that would affect the Northland during the long range but there is a system that could bring some light snow to the area between the 14th-15th the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUPERIOR*
Timing:  
Until Midnight CST Monday night.

.Tonight...  Breezy and turning colder.  Occasional light snow and flurries.  Snowfall accumulations around 1" or less.  Low 8 to 13.  Wind becoming northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday...  Breezy and colder.  Occasional snow showers and flurries.  High 15 to 20.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 0 to 5 below.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 6 to 11.

.Tuesday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 8 below to 13 below.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 5 to 10.

.Wednesday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 7 below to 12 below.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 6 to 11.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  22
Low:     4

Sunrise Monday:  7:24 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   5:22 PM CST

Tim