Saturday, February 6, 2016

February 6, 2016 Weather Report - Light snow, sleet and rain tonight; More snow chances Sunday-Monday; Blizzard conditions in Western Minnesota Sunday and Monday; Near hurricane force wind gusts Sunday-Monday across the Northern Plains

/Issued 4:51 PM CST, Saturday, February 6, 2016/

A variety of winter weather headlines in effect through Monday.  More information at the links below.  Source, Aerisweather.com

Winter weather advisory - http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=fgf&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

Winter storm warning - http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=fgf&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning

Blizzard watch - http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mpx&wwa=blizzard%20watch

Blizzard warning - http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=fgf&wwa=blizzard%20warning
















Tropical force to hurricane force wind gusts are expected through Monday across the Northern Plains and Western High Plains - The brown outlined area on the map is where wind gusts of 45-65 mph or greater are possible through Monday.















Late afternoon water vapor satellite image and low pressure position from 4 PM today (Storm track is the red line on map) Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

















Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 4:30 PM CST today.  Source, WSI.

Blue=Snow
Green=Rain














Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















*12 subzero low temperature days so far this winter at the Duluth Airport - Last winter thru February 6th we had 22 days with a subzero low temperature.  The average number of days during the winter with a subzero low temperature is 35 days - Last winter we ended up with 37 subzero low temperature days.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  February 6, 2016

Unseasonably mild temperatures over the area today with highs generally in the 30s.  Strong low pressure averaging 996mb was over Eastern Saskatchewan Province late this afternoon with high pressure off to our north - Increasing southerly winds occurred across the Northland today out ahead of the approaching low from Saskatchewan.  Wind speeds were in the 10 to 20 mph range with higher gusts.  Most of the day has been dry but radar echoes have been increasing this afternoon over Western portions of the Northland where some light snow or mixed precipitation could be hitting the ground as of 4 PM.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 6)

Low pressure will track from Eastern Saskatchewan to Southern Manitoba by daybreak while a warm front lifts north through far Northern Minnesota tonight which will be followed by a cold front which drops south/east out of the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest later tonight.  Expect a few rounds of precipitation to move through the Northland tonight - Precipitation types will vary as temperatures aloft and near the surface will remain on the mild side.  Snow, sleet, freezing rain and even some rain is all possible tonight with the greatest chance for the precipitation to stay in the form of snow found along the Borderland and also over the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Temperatures will hold steady in the 20s and 30s tonight with winds out of the south, southeast or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Sunday and Sunday night (February 7)

A strong area of low pressure will track from far Northwest Minnesota to Northern Lake Michigan by early Monday morning - The combination of this low, an upper level trough and two cold fronts will help to generate periods of snow in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Sunday and Sunday night.  Some mixed precipitation will also be possible mainly Sunday morning in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Note:  Most of the snow that does fall should be on the light side, but a few heavier snow showers are certainly possible.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 30s with lows Sunday night in the single digits and teens.  Winds from the south or west tomorrow will turn northwest by tomorrow night, wind speeds will be in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (February 8-10)

Light snow chances will linger on Monday as low pressure passes over the Central/Eastern Great Lakes.  Mainly dry for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Colder temperatures on the way with highs on Monday in the single digits and teens, highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the single digits below to teens above zero.  Low temperatures Monday night will range from the single digits and teens below to single digits above zero.  Lows Tuesday night will be in the single digits, teens and 20s below.

Note:  Gusty winds will continue Monday and Tuesday with bitterly cold wind chills along with some blowing and drifting snow especially in open areas.  Lake effect snow showers are also expected Monday and Tuesday along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(February 11-16)

Below average temperatures are expected from the 11th-14th which will be followed by near to above average temperatures on the 15th-16th.  There will be a significant blast of cold arctic air next weekend over Eastern Canada into the Northeast U.S. with the west/southwest flank of this arctic airmass possibly covering the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  No major storms showing up during the long range.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy with periods of light snow.  Light sleet, freezing rain or rain is also possible at times.  Snowfall accumulations of 1" or less.  Low 30 to 34.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

.Sunday...  Occasional light snow.  Mixed precipitation also possible mainly during the morning.  High 34 to 37.  Wind west at 15 to 20 mph.

.Sunday night...  Light snow.  Turning colder.  Low 8 to 13.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday...  Light snow and flurries.  Total snowfall accumulations from Sunday through Monday of around 1-2".  High 15 to 20.

.Monday night...  Flurries possible.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5 below.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 6 to 11.

.Tuesday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 8 below to 13 below.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  22
Low:     4

Sunrise Sunday:  7:25 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   5:20 PM CST

Tim