Wednesday, February 3, 2016

February 3, 2016 Weather Report - Light snow showers on the way for Thursday; More chances for light snow on Friday and again late this weekend

/Issued 4:49 PM CST, Wednesday, February 3, 2016/

24-hour snowfall map ending this morning, February 3, 2016.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.















Tuesday's storm also had a severe side which is fairly typical.  Over a dozen tornado reports centered on Mississippi and Alabama yesterday.  Filtered storm reports map for February 2, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58+ mph)















Over 100 warnings were issued on Tuesday by the National Weather Service.  Source, http://www.nws.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/index.html

Red polygons=Tornado warning
Blue polygons=Severe thunderstorm warning
Green=Flash flood warning













Ice coverage remains well below average over the Great Lakes this winter.  As of February 2, 2016 only 5.8% of the Great Lakes was covered by ice; One year ago ice coverage was at 38%; 2 years ago ice coverage was at a whopping 62%.

Only 1.2% of Lake Superior was covered by ice as of February 3, 2016.  The average from 1973-2014 is 20% in early February.  Source, http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=s&ext=swt&type=N&hr=06

Here's some ice coverage charts for Lake Superior starting with 2011-2012 which had low ice coverage - Similar to this winter at least so far.
















2013-2014 had a tremendous amount of ice over Lake Superior with some ice lingering into early June!
















2014-2015 was also a good year for a lot of ice over Lake Superior

















Now lets look at 2015-2016, not much ice that's for sure!
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Snowfall report for February 2-3, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Gile, WI (Iron County)  15.1"
3 NW of Butternut, WI (Ashland County)  12.0"
1 WSW of Saxon, WI (Iron County)  11.0"
Ashland, WI (Ashland County)  8.7"
Stone Lake, WI (Sawyer County)  8.0"

Springbrook, WI (Washburn County)  8.0"
3 E of Glidden, WI (Ashland County)  8.0"
3 WNW of Clam Lake, WI (Bayfield County)  8.0"
2 SE of Spooner, WI (Washburn County)  7.5"
Shell Lake, WI (Washburn County)  7.0"

4 NNW of New Post, WI (Sawyer County)  7.0"
Mercer, WI (Iron County)  7.0"
1 E of La Pointe, WI (Ashland County)  6.4"
2 SSW of Poplar, WI (Douglas County)  5.5"
Rock Creek, MN (Pine County)  4.5"

3 E of Sand Bay, WI (Bayfield County)  4.5"
1 SSW of Grantsburg, WI (Burnett County)  4.3"
5 SE of Phillips, WI (Price County)  4.0"
5 S of Herbster, WI (Bayfield County)  3.8"
3 SE of Superior, WI (Douglas County)  3.4"

3 SW of Lester Park, MN (St. Louis County)  2.8"
Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  2.4"  National Weather Service total.
Holyoke, MN (Carlton County)  2.2"
4 ENE of Alger, MN (Lake County)  2.1"
2 NE of Lutsen, MN (Cook County)  2.0"

2 E of Esko, MN (Carlton County)  2.0"
3 NNE of Finland, MN (Lake County)  1.9"
3 ENE of Wright, MN (Carlton County)  1.6"

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  February 3, 2016

Low pressure of 996mb has moved into Eastern Canada this afternoon in its wake skies were mostly sunny in most of Northeast Minnesota late this afternoon while mostly cloudy skies lingered in portions of Northwest Wisconsin with lingering snow showers and flurries especially along the South Shore of Lake Superior.  High temperatures today were in the teens and 20s with gusty northwest winds in the 15-30 mph range.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 3)

Clear to partly cloudy skies this evening followed by increasing cloudiness from west to east later in the night.  Areas of snow showers and flurries are possible toward daybreak in parts of the Northland as a weak system approaches from the west/northwest.  Low temperatures will fall into the single digits below to teens above zero with teens below possible in the typical cold spots.  Winds will shift from the northwest to the south/southeast later in the night.

Thursday and Thursday night (February 4)

A weak low pressure system will pass through the Upper Midwest tomorrow - Occasional light snow showers and flurries on Thursday with total snowfall accumulations generally less than 1".  Mainly dry for Thursday night.  Expect mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies tomorrow with highs in the teens and 20s.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies tomorrow night with lows in the single digits and teens.  South winds Thursday morning will turn west or northwest Thursday afternoon-evening, wind speeds will be in the 10 to 20 mph range.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

Friday through Sunday (February 5-7)

A period of light snow is possible Friday afternoon or evening with minor snowfall accumulations possible in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as another area of low pressure moves across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Temperatures for Friday and Friday night will be in the teens and 20s.

Most of the area should be dry on Saturday but as winds turn to the east/southeast, lake effect snow showers could develop along the North Shore of Lake Superior from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

A clipper approaching from the northwest could bring some snow to the Northland from late Saturday night into Sunday with lake enhanced snow possible on Sunday along the North Shore of Lake Superior mainly over Cook County.

High temperatures on Saturday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Saturday night in the single digits to the 20s.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 20s with some locations possibly climbing into the 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(February 8-13)

Snow showers and flurries will be possible on Monday (8th) as low pressure moves over the Great Lakes - Gusty north/northwest winds behind this low will help to usher in a colder airmass for the early-mid part of next week.  Bitterly cold wind chills are also expected for next Monday and Tuesday with wind chill headlines looking like a good bet right now.  Below average temperatures are forecast from the 8th-13th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear with increasing cloudiness late.  Snow showers or flurries possible toward daybreak.  Low 2 below to 3 above.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming south late.

.Thursday...  Snow showers and flurries mainly before Noon.  Snowfall accumulations less than 1".  Considerable cloudiness.  High 21 to 26.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph becoming west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 7 to 12.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible by the afternoon.  High 20 to 25.

.Friday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 17 to 22.

.Saturday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible late.  Low 17 to 22.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  21
Low:     3

Sunrise Thursday:  7:29 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   5:16 PM CST

Tim