Sunday, February 28, 2016

February 28, 2016 Weather Report - Snow arrives late tonight (1-3" of accumulation by Monday morning with locally higher amounts possible) Gusty northwest winds causing blowing and drifting snow late tonight-Monday AM; Winter weather advisory in effect in parts of the Northland; Future radar included in this post

/Issued 6:08 PM CST, Sunday, February 28, 2016/

Winter weather advisory is in effect for the area shaded in purple on the map.  Source, Aerisweather.com  More information at the link below.

Winter weather advisory - http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory
















Future radar for tonight and early Monday morning per 21z HopWRF model.

Note:  Darker green colors on the maps below indicate moderate to heavy snowfall with visibility as low as 1/2 mile or less.












































































Total snowfall accumulation map for late tonight through early Monday morning per 21z HopWRF model.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Last week's temperature departure map.  A warm week in the Northland.
















Last week's precipitation departure map.

















High temperature map for February 27, 2016.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

February 21-27, 2016

High temperatures:

2/21:  28 F/+2 degrees above normal
2/22:  28 F/+2 degrees above normal
2/23:  34 F/+7 degrees above normal
2/24:  34 F/+7 degrees above normal
2/25:  28 F/+1 degree above normal
2/26:  36 F/+8 degrees above normal
2/27:  52 F/+24 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

2/21:  13 F/+5 degrees above normal
2/22:  16 F/+7 degrees above normal
2/23:  24 F/+15 degrees above normal
2/24:  21 F/+12 degrees above normal
2/25:  15 F/+5 degrees above normal
2/26:  9 F/-1 degree below normal
2/27:  28 F/+17 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.19"
Normal:  0.26"
Departure:  -0.07" below normal

High temperature report for February 27, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  52 F
International Falls, MN:  46 F
Brainerd, MN:  57 F
Hibbing, MN:  49 F
Ashland, WI:  55 F
Hayward, WI:  54 F
Sky Harbor Airport, MN:  54 F
Two Harbors, MN:  55 F
Silver Bay, MN:  55 F
Bigfork, MN:  52 F
Grand Rapids, MN:  50 F
Longville, MN:  55 F
Pine River, MN:  57 F
Aitkin, MN:  57 F
Hinckley, MN:  55 F
Superior, WI:  55 F
Solon Springs, WI:  52 F
Siren, WI:  57 F
Phillips, WI:  51 F
Embarrass, MN:  47 F
Butternut, WI:  52 F

*Record warmth in the Upper Midwest on Saturday, February 27, 2016*
Source, National Weather Service Chanhassen, Minnesota

Twin Cities, MN:

New record:  58 degrees
Old record:  54 degrees set in 1896

Eau Claire, WI:

New record:  61 degrees
Old record:  55 degrees set in 1895 and in 1896

St. Cloud, MN:

New record:  59 degrees
Old record:  58 degrees set in 1932

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  February 28, 2016

A lot cooler than yesterday but today's high temperatures which were in the 20s to lower 30s are actually pretty close to average for late February.  Mostly cloudy skies over the Northland but there has been some clearing taking place at times especially across Northern Minnesota.  Snow and freezing drizzle this morning ended from west to east by this afternoon as low pressure of 996mb heads into the Eastern Great Lakes late this afternoon.  Note:  Snowfall accumulations from this system were generally around 1" or less.  Winds today were out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 28)

A fast moving area of low pressure will pass north of our area tonight but this low will drag a strong cold front through the Northland later tonight -- A quick shot of strong lift combined with steep low level lapse rates will lead to about a 1-3 hour period of snow which could be heavy at times.  The snow will spread from NW-SE through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from late this evening through early Monday morning.

Lows tonight will range from the single digits below to single digits above zero over far Northern Minnesota to the 20s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will be shifting around from the north/west to the southwest and then back to the north/west, wind speeds will be in the 10-20 mph range with gusts up to 30 mph developing late tonight.

Monday and Monday night (February 29)

The unofficial end to Winter 2015-16 will be a chilly one!

Low pressure will exit to the east while high pressure builds southeast into the Northern Plains.  Snow showers and flurries will be possible tomorrow morning with lake effect snow showers affecting the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Monday will be in the teens, 20s and lower 30s which will occur early in the day, expect afternoon temperatures to only be in the single digits to around 20 degrees.  Winds tomorrow will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Lows Monday night will be in the single digits below to teens above zero with north or northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (March 1-3)

Mainly dry Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the teens and 20s with lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night in the single digits below to teens above zero -- The first few days of March will no doubt be a chilly one here in the Northland.  

Note:  There is a chance for lake effect snow showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior from Tuesday through Thursday and those lake effect snow showers could also affect the North Shore of Lake Superior by Thursday as winds could possibly turn more to the east or northeast at that time.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(March 4-9)

Near to below average temperatures are expected on the 4th-5th with above average temperatures looking likely from the 6th-9th.  A minor snow event is possible on the 4th-5th.  A stronger storm system could impact the Upper Midwest next week with rain.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  2 AM to 8 AM CST Monday.

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy during the evening.  Snow developing after Midnight.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west to southwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible Overnight.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow are possible after Midnight.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1-3" possible.

.Monday...  Breezy and chilly! Partly to mostly sunny.  High 23 to 28 early with temperatures falling into the teens.  Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow are possible especially during the morning.

.Monday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 to 8.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

.Tuesday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 17 to 22.

.Wednesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 7 to 12.

.Thursday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 17 to 22.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  29
Low:  11

Sunrise Monday:  6:49 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   5:54 PM CST

Tim