Monday, February 22, 2016

February 22, 2016 Weather Report - Severe weather/tornado outbreak possible on Tuesday over parts of the Southeast U.S.; Mild temps with some light snow here in the Northland tonight and Tuesday

/Issued 4:22 PM CST, Monday, February 22, 2016/

Severe weather outlook for Tuesday.  Source, Storm Prediction Center; WSI.

Red=Moderate risk for severe thunderstorms (4)
Orange=Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms (3)
Yellow=Slight risk for severe thunderstorms (2)














A severe weather outbreak is possible on Tuesday in parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Florida.  The map below shows forecasted dew points and winds for Tuesday afternoon per 18z 4 KM NAM; Source, Pivotalweather.com

60+ degree dewpoints with strong south/east winds in place ahead of a deepening area of low pressure which moves northeast out of Texas tonight will work with an unstable atmosphere and strong winds aloft to produce this possible severe weather outbreak on Tuesday, winds will also be changing direction with height which could lead to supercell thunderstorms and a risk for tornadoes.
















Surface map forecast for Tuesday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Blue=Snow





























Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  February 22, 2016

It was a mostly cloudy Monday but temperatures were fairly mild with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s which is pretty close to average for late February.  A warm front was draped across Northern Minnesota today and there's been some snow showers and flurries near that warm frontal boundary.  Winds today were out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 22)

Mostly cloudy skies with a few snow showers or flurries possible mainly over Northern Minnesota.  A warm front will lift north into Southern Ontario while low pressure heads east out of Southern Manitoba Province.  Low temperatures will mainly be in the 20s with south or southwest winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday night (February 23)

A light snowfall event! Low pressure passes by to our north while a trough moves southeast through the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes -- Will get some light snow in our area tomorrow with accumulations generally around 1" (maybe 2" at most)  Lingering flurries are possible tomorrow night.  Mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday with highs in the 30s.  Mostly to partly cloudy skies Tuesday night with lows in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the southwest or northwest tomorrow at 10 to 20 mph with north or northwest winds tomorrow night at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (February 24-26)

Scattered snow showers or flurries are possible for Wednesday and Thursday and there's also a chance for some lake effect snow showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior where a few inches of snow could accumulate, elsewhere expect little or no snow accumulation for Wednesday and Thursday.

High temperatures will be in the 20s on Wednesday with lows Wednesday night in the teens and 20s.  Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the 20s with a few spots getting into the 30s, lows Thursday night will be in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Low.

(February 27-March 3)

The theme of no major storms hitting the Northland continues during the long range but the temperature forecast is very much in doubt as the computer models have changed quite a bit from just 24 hours ago.  The GFS model which for several days had been showing a significant dump of cold arctic air affecting the Northland has backed off considerably while the EURO which showed milder temperatures for days shifted toward the colder GFS solution with Sunday's 12z run, but since then the EURO has also backed off on the arctic outbreak for this coming weekend -- Instead it's now looking like a 1 to possibly 2 day cold airmass affecting the Northland sometime around the 28th or 29th of February with the heart of the cold air possibly staying off to our northeast similar to what happened back on Valentine's weekend.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  Low 22 to 27.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Occasional light snow.  Total snowfall accumulations around 1" or less.  High 32 to 37.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.

.Wednesday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 12 to 17.

.Thursday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 23 to 28.

.Thursday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 27 to 32.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  27
Low:     9

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:00 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   5:45 PM CST

Tim