Wednesday, February 17, 2016

February 17, 2016 Weather Report - Chance for some rain (Thunder?) Freezing rain, sleet and wet snow Thursday and Friday; Temps close to 40 degrees Friday PM and Saturday

/Issued 4:21 PM CST, Wednesday, February 17, 2016/

Freezing rain is possible in parts of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Thursday evening into Friday morning, at this time it appears the risk for freezing rain is greatest inland from Lake Superior including over the Arrowhead and Iron Range in Northeast Minnesota, these areas have a better chance for temperatures to hover in the 30-32 degree range which would support freezing rain -- Temperatures closer to Lake Superior will probably be close to 32 F or a degree or two warmer which lowers the chance for freezing rain.  The map below shows how much freezing rain could accumulate between Thursday night and Friday morning, greater than a tenth of an inch of ice is possible in parts of the Northland which if verifies could lead to very hazardous driving conditions.  Source, 18z NAM; pivotalweather.com















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.



















Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.



















Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  February 17, 2016

A very cold start but a fairly nice afternoon under mostly sunny skies in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin while clouds increased over Western portions of the area.  Highs were in the 20s to around 30 degrees with southerly winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 17)

High pressure will continue to move farther away from the Upper Midwest tonight.  Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies are forecast and there is a chance for some patchy fog later in the night.  Lows will be in the teens and 20s but single digits are possible in parts of Northwest Wisconsin and over the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the south or southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday night (February 18)

Low pressure will move over the Rockies and Western High Plains on Thursday and should reach the Upper Midwest by Friday morning -- Moisture will be on the increase tomorrow resulting in mostly cloudy skies with a threat for patchy fog, drizzle and freezing drizzle.  Warm air advection along with a strengthening low level jet should help in generating some light snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain for tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s with southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

Friday through Sunday (February 19-21)

A messy Friday ahead as strong low pressure tracks across the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Lakes -- This system will bring rain and a mixture of precipitation types to the Northland on Friday with lingering snow and rain showers Friday night. 

 Note:  There is a chance for light accumulations of ice especially Friday morning over parts of Northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead with a lesser chance for light ice accumulations farther south.  Minor snow accumulations are also possible Friday and Friday night in parts of the area.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the 30s to lower 40s with lows Friday night in the 20s and 30s. 

 Saturday looks decent with highs in the 30s to lower 40s, lows Saturday night will be in the 20s to lower 30s with a chance for some snow or mixed precipitation later in the night as a clipper system approaches from the northwest.

A chance for some light snow or mixed precipitation over the Northland on Sunday as low pressure passes through the Upper Midwest.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(February 22-27)

A few flurries or snow showers on Monday (22nd) with a minor snow event possible sometime between the 23rd-26th but still no signs of a major storm through the end of the month.  Near normal temperatures are forecast from the 22nd-27th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 14 to 18.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional light snow, sleet, freezing rain or rain.  Patchy fog and drizzle also possible.  High 30 to 35.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday night...  Occasional light snow, sleet, freezing rain or rain.  Patchy fog and drizzle also possible.  Low 30 to 33.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Occasional light rain, sleet or wet snow.  High 35 to 40.

.Friday night...  Scattered rain or snow showers.  Low 30 to 35.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 38 to 43.

.Saturday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 27 to 32.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 32 to 34.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  25
Low:      7

Sunrise Thursday:  7:09 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   5:37 PM CST

Tim