Tuesday, February 16, 2016

February 16, 2016 Weather Report: 2-8" of snow last night near the Hayward Lakes; Sub-zero tonight; Warming up the remainder of the week (Near 40 F by Fri-Sat) Late week rain/mixed precip chances

/Issued 3:48 PM CST, Tuesday, February 16, 2016/

Last night's snowfall accumulation map -- About 2-4" of snow fell in a small part of Northwest Wisconsin with one report of up to 8" near Hayward!  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Warnings map for February 15, 2016 - Active day over the Southeast U.S.

Legend on the two maps below:

Red polygons=Tornado warning
Blue polygons=Severe thunderstorm warning













Warnings map for February 16, 2016 - Active day over the far Eastern portion of the U.S. with severe thunderstorm warnings as far north as New Jersey!













Filtered storm reports map for February 15, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Legend on the two maps below:

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58 mph or stronger)
Green dots=Large hail reports (1.00" or greater in diameter)















Filtered storm reports map for February 16, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.
















Snowfall report for February 15-16, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

2 W of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  8.0"
1 SSW of Park Falls, WI (Price County)  4.3"
3 WNW of Clam Lake, WI (Bayfield County)  3.2"
5.9 SW of Butternut, WI (Price County)  3.2"

18.6 SW of Mellen, WI (Ashland County)  3.2"
1 WNW of Prentice, WI (Price County)  2.6"
2 E of La Pointe, WI (Ashland County)  2.1"
9.2 NNE of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  1.3"

February 1-15, 2015 climate summary for Duluth, Minnesota

Average temperature:  10.8 degrees
Departure:  -2.2 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  0.39"
Departure:  +0.03" above normal

Total snowfall:  7.5"
Departure:  +1.4" above normal

Number of days with snow (0.1" or greater accumulation)  8
Number of 1.0"+ snowfall events:  3

2 days with a high temperature of 32 F or warmer
8 days with a sub-zero low temperature

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  February 16, 2016

Last night's snow event which dropped several inches of snow ended up setting up over a small portion of Northwest Wisconsin, mainly near the Hayward Lakes area, the HopWRF and HRRR models did quite well in showing the potential for a narrow corridor of heavy snow, although the placement of it ended up further southeast than what both models had shown earlier in the day.

Partly to mostly sunny skies were found in our area today with high temperatures in the 20s and lower 30s with teens in Northern Minnesota.  Winds were out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 16)

Mostly clear and cold as high pressure builds southeast out of Manitoba Province.  Low temperatures will be in the single digits and teens below to the single digits above zero with 20s below possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of north or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday night (February 17)

An area of high pressure will exit to the south/east on Wednesday.  Sunny to partly cloudy tomorrow with highs in the teens and 20s, winds will shift to the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies Wednesday night with lows ranging from the single digits to around 20 degrees, winds will be out of the south or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Thursday through Saturday (February 18-20)

A strong area of low pressure will move from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest late this week before exiting into Eastern Canada by Saturday -- This system should bring some light rain, drizzle, wet snow and possibly some sleet or freezing rain to the Northland from Thursday into Friday.  Precipitation amounts look to be on the light side with this storm but enough ice accumulation could lead to hazardous driving conditions in parts of the area Thursday night and Friday morning.

Highs on Thursday will be in the 20s and 30s with steady temperatures Thursday night in the 20s and 30s.  Highs on Friday will be in the 30s to lower 40s with lows Friday night mainly in the 30s.  Dry weather returns on Saturday with highs in the 30s to lower 40s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(February 21-26)

Still not seeing any signs for a major storm for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during the long range -- A minor snow event remains possible on the 21st-22nd but that's about it.  Above average temperatures on the 21st followed by near normal temperatures from the 22nd-26th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 0 to 5 below.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Scattered flurries or snow showers possible during the morning otherwise partly to mostly sunny.  High 17 to 22.  Wind east around 10 mph becoming south to southeast during the afternoon.

.Wednesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 14 to 17.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 28 to 33.

.Thursday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional light freezing, sleet, snow or rain possible.  Patchy fog and drizzle.  Low 28 to 33.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Drizzle and fog.  Occasional light rain.  High 35 to 40.

.Friday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered rain or snow showers possible.  Low 30 to 35.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 38 to 42.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  25
Low:     7

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:10 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   5:36 PM CST

Tim