Wednesday, January 6, 2016

January 6, 2016 Weather Report - 2015 severe weather stats in this post (Below average year for tornadoes in both MN and WI) Light snow, fog and a light wintery mix of precip tonight and Thursday (Snowfall map included in this post) Arctic air hits this weekend

/Issued 5:21 PM CST, Wednesday, January 6, 2016/

Number of tornado and severe thunderstorm watches and departure from normal for 2015.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

-Left image:  Number of tornado watches top left and the departure from normal bottom left.

-Right image:  Number of severe thunderstorm watches top right and the departure from normal bottom right.

In Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin the number of tornado watches in 2015 was pretty close to slightly below normal while the number of severe thunderstorms watches was below normal.














Storm reports map for May 6, 2015.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

In the maps below:

Red dots=Tornado reports
Green dots=Large hail reports (1.00" or larger in diameter)
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58 mph or greater)















Storm reports map for November 16, 2015.















Storm reports map for December 23, 2015.















Annual severe weather reports map for 2015.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58 mph or greater)
Green dots=Large hail reports (1.00" or larger in diameter)

Minnesota:

407 total severe weather reports in 2015.

24 tornadoes (-12 below the 1985-2014 average)
170 hail reports
213 damaging wind reports

Note:  Annual tornado average in Minnesota is 36.




















Annual severe weather reports map for 2015.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58 mph or greater)
Green dots=Large hail reports (1.00" or larger in diameter)

Wisconsin:

324 total severe weather reports in 2015.

20 tornadoes (-2 below the 1985-2014 average)
109 hail reports
195 damaging wind reports

Note:  Annual tornado average in Wisconsin is 22.






















20z RAP model snowfall accumulation forecast valid through late Thursday afternoon.  Generally around 1" or less of snow accumulation in the Northland tonight and tomorrow.




















A slight probability for snowfall totals to reach at least 4" on Friday in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin (Blue area on map)  Source, Weather Prediction Center.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















2015 severe weather stats
Source:  Storm Prediction Center

*No high risk severe weather days in the U.S during 2015, first time this has happened since 2000.

*576 watches were issued in the U.S. in 2015 (363 severe thunderstorm and 213 tornado watches)  Active years in 2008 and 2011 had a total of 976 and 901 total watches respectively.

*2 PDS (Particularly dangerous situation) watches in the U.S. in 2015.  One PDS severe thunderstorm watch on June 19th and one PDS tornado watch on December 23.  Active years in 2008 and 2011 had a total of 25 and 20 PDS watches respectively.

*Top 10 severe weather days in 2015 in the U.S.
Number of severe weather reports; Tornadoes, large hail or damaging winds

1)  523 on July 13
2)  467 on July 14
3)  368 on June 30
4)  335 on April 19
5)  328 on June 20
6)  323 on June 23
7)  291 on April 9
8)  283 on June 22
9)  281 on December 23
10)  260 on June June 12

*Greatest number of tornado reports in 2015 occurred on May 6th (59 tornado reports)

*4th greatest number of tornadoes occurred on November 16th (47 tornado reports)

*5th greatest number of tornado reports occurred on December 23rd (39 tornado reports)

*7/10 top tornado days in 2015 occurred during the month of May, 1 in June.  May was also the most active month for tornadoes with 414 reported in the U.S. (No real surprise there as May is usually the peak of tornado season)

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  January 6, 2016

Overcast with areas of fog, freezing drizzle and drizzle in the area today with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s.  Winds were out of the south or east at 5 to around 15 mph.  Surface map late this afternoon features a couple areas of low pressure over the Rockies and Western High Plains with a cold front across Central portions of Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 6)

An upper level disturbance along with weak height falls will spread north/northeast into the Upper Midwest tonight, this combined with a frontal boundary over the area will lead to some light snow along with areas of fog, freezing drizzle and drizzle.  Not expecting much snow accumulation tonight with generally a half inch to about an inch of new snow possible by daybreak.  Lows tonight will be in the 20s to lower 30s with south or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday night (January 7)

A few different cold fronts will move across the Northland on Thursday while a broad area of low pressure lifts northeast out of the Southern Plains.  Mostly cloudy skies will continue tomorrow with areas of fog, drizzle and freezing drizzle.  Some light snow is also possible tomorrow morning and then again Thursday night.

Highs tomorrow will be in the 30s with lows tomorrow night in the 20s and 30s.  South, east or north winds are expected at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (January 8-10)

An area of low pressure will track northeast out of the Plains and into the Eastern Great Lakes from Friday into Saturday - This system will bring some light snow to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Friday and Saturday.

Much colder temperatures will move in this weekend as a major pattern change takes place with a N/NW flow aloft developing which will usher in an arctic airmass.

Highs on Friday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Friday night ranging from the single digits below to single digits above zero in Western-Northwest areas to the 20s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Highs on Saturday will be falling into the single digits below to teens above zero with lows Saturday night ranging from the single digits above to near 20 below.

Highs on Sunday will range from around 10 below to single digits above zero.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(January 11-16)

Below average temperatures during the long range but temperatures could get back to normal levels toward the 13th-16th time frame will just have to wait and see.  By far the coldest stretch next week looks to be from Monday-Wednesday (11th-13th)  Not much snow with the type of pattern were getting into, but a clipper or two could affect parts of the Northland sometime next week with a fluffy dusting of snow.

Note:  Dangerously low wind chills in the 15 below to 35 below zero range will likely develop at times in the Northland from Saturday night through the middle of next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Areas of fog, freezing drizzle and drizzle.  Occasional light snow developing.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Total snowfall accumulations less than 1".

.Thursday...  Areas of fog, freezing drizzle, drizzle and flurries.  High 30 to 33.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday night...  Areas of fog, freezing drizzle and drizzle.  Light snow possible after midnight.  Low 30 to 33.  Wind east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Light snow.  High 30 to 33.

.Friday night...  Light snow and flurries.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1-3" possible.  Low 20 to 25.

.Saturday...  Turning colder! Light snow and flurries.  High 25 to 30 early with falling temperatures.

.Saturday night...  Very cold.  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Sunday...  Very cold.  Partly cloudy.  High 2 above to 3 below.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  19
Low:    2

Sunrise Thursday:  7:53 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:37 PM CST

Tim