Thursday, January 28, 2016

January 28, 2016 Weather Report - Light snow and a mixture of precipitation on Friday; Mild weekend ahead; Snow event possible next Tue-Wed

/Issued 4:30 PM CST, Thursday, January 28, 2016/

Weather maps for Friday, January 29, 2016.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Blue=Snow
Orange=Icy/mixed precipitation types
Green=Rain











































Late afternoon water vapor satellite image.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

A more active weather pattern that's for sure, but still waiting for that whopper of a storm here in the Northland.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Friday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.





















Still monitoring the early to middle portion of next week for a potential snow event in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  The long range computer models are actually in pretty decent agreement on the track of this one considering this system is still several days away.  Stay tuned!

















Severe thunderstorms are possible early next week in the yellow shaded areas on the map below.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Monday














Tuesday














Snowfall report for January 27-28, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Gile, WI (Iron County)  9.3"
Hurley, WI (Iron County)  6.0"
6 SW of Snow Bank Lake, MN (Lake County)  5.8"
11 NNW of Whyte, MN (Lake County)  5.5"
2 SSW of Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis County)  4.5"

4 S of Tower, MN (St. Louis County)  4.2"
5 NE of Grand Portage, MN (Cook County)  4.0"
Glidden, WI (Ashland County)  4.0"
Cook, MN (St. Louis County)  4.0"
1 E of Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  3.4"

Embarrass, MN (St. Louis County)  3.0"
2 NNW of Marcell, MN (Itasca County)  2.1"
6 SW of Butternut, WI (Price County)  1.7"
Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  1.5" Offical NWS total.
Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)  1.4"
Ashland, WI (Ashland County)  1.3"

Weather Tidbits:

*36 degrees at the Duluth Airport on January 27th; Warmest high temperature since December 13th (37 degrees)

*Only 2.7% of Lake Superior is covered by ice as of January 28th.  Great Lakes ice coverage as of January 27th was at 9.8%.  Quite low for the time of year.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  January 28, 2016

The day started out rather cloudy but sunshine broke out from north to south in all but portions of Northwest Wisconsin where mostly cloudy skies prevailed late this afternoon.  Scattered flurries and light snow showers in parts of the area mainly before Noon while heavier lake effect snow showers affected portions of the South Shore of Lake Superior mainly in Iron County.  Highs today were in the 20s and 30s and those temperatures occurred before sunrise today, colder air has been pouring into the Northland during the day with afternoon temperatures mainly in the teens and 20s with 850mb temperatures ranging from -20C north of Lake Superior to between -10 and -16C in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds today were out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Surface map at 3 PM today featured a strong area of low pressure of 994mb over Eastern Ontario - Note:  This was the storm that passed through our area on Wednesday.  High pressure of 1016mb was over Western Ontario with a 992mb low along the Alberta-Saskatchewan Province line.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight (January 28)

Will start off with clear to partly cloudy skies while mostly cloudy skies in parts of Northwest Wisconsin trend toward mostly clear this evening.  Clouds will be on the increase once again from west to east later tonight as low pressure and a warm front approach from the west.  Could be some light snow or flurries toward daybreak over Western portions of the area.  Lows tonight will range from the single digits and teens below zero in Northeast Minnesota to the single digits and teens above zero elsewhere.  Winds out of the north or northwest early will shift to the southeast after midnight.

Friday and Friday night (January 29)

Some snow and a mixture of precipitation on the way!

A warm front will push through the area on Friday which will be followed by a cold front that'll move through Friday night - Strong low pressure averaging 985mb will track into Central Manitoba Province on Friday and into Western Ontario Province Friday night.

Warm advection snow is possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Friday with another round of precipitation for Friday night - This second round of precipitation will likely fall as snow, sleet or freezing rain Friday evening and Overnight.  Precipitation amounts are expected to remain on the light side but it won't take much sleet or freezing rain to cause travel problems.  Note:  Winter weather advisory may be needed for Friday in some parts of the Northland.

Temperatures tomorrow and tomorrow night will be in the 20s and 30s with the day's high probably not occurring until after sunset (Very similar to what happened on Wednesday)

Winds will be out of the south or southeast at 10 to 20 mph on Friday and south or southwest at 15 to 25 mph Friday night.

Note:  There is a chance for some lake effect snow showers on Friday along the North Shore of Lake Superior, northeast of Duluth.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (January 30-February 1)

For the most part the Saturday-Monday time frame looks mainly dry in our area but a system passing off to our south could bring a little bit of snow to parts of Eastern Minnesota or Northwest Wisconsin Saturday night/Sunday but this doesn't look like a real big deal at this point.

Mild temperatures on Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 30s on Saturday and in the 20s and 30s on Sunday.  Lows Saturday night will be in the 20s.  Lows Sunday night will be in the teens and 20s.  Highs on Monday will be in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Low.

(February 2-7)

Snow is possible on Tuesday and Wednesday (2nd-3rd)  Low pressure is forecast to track out of the Southern Rockies and into the Central Plains and then into the Central or Eastern Great Lakes from February 1st-3rd.  If this storm tracks far enough to the NW, then parts of the Northland could see some snow especially next Tuesday and Wednesday.  Lake effect snow is also possible near Lake Superior with northeast winds on Tuesday shifting to the north on Wednesday which will put only the South Shore of Lake Superior in play for possible lake effect snow.  Near to below average temperatures are expected from the 2nd-7th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear with increasing cloudiness late.  Low 7 to 12.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming southeast late.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional snow showers.  Snowfall accumulations less than 1".  High 27 to 32.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday night...  Light snow, sleet or light freezing rain possible.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Snowfall accumulations of around 1" possible.

.Saturday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 33 to 38.

.Saturday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 26 to 31.

.Sunday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  20
Low:    2

Sunrise Friday:  7:37 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   5:07 PM CST

Tim