Tuesday, January 26, 2016

January 26, 2016 Weather Report - Gusty winds, rising temperatures and a burst of snow on the way for Wednesday (Future radar included in this post) Snowfall reports from Monday in this post; Tracking more snow or mixed precip chances late this week; Latest on next week's storm/lake effect event

/Issued 6:56 PM CST, Tuesday, January 26, 2016/

Future radar for Wednesday per 18z NAM.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/






























































Total snowfall accumulation forecast for Wednesday per 22z RAP model.




















Updated storm tracks for next Monday-Wednesday, February 1-3, 2016.  GFS model remains the most favorable track for several inches of snow in the Northland.















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.





















Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.





















Snowfall report for January 25-26, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

12 N of Isle, MN (Aitkin County)  6.1"
Gile, WI (Iron County)  6.0"
7 ESE of Superior, WI (Douglas County)  5.3"
4 SSW of Little Pine, MN (Crow Wing County)  4.5"
4 SE of Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield County)  4.5"

Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)  4.4"
6 SSW of South Range, WI (Douglas County)  4.0"
7 NE of Bruno, MN (Pine County)  4.0"
3 SW of Bayfield, WI (Bayfield County)  3.9"
12 N of McGregor, MN (Aitkin County)  3.6"

Cotton, MN (St. Louis County)  3.5"
Larsmont, MN (Lake County)  3.5"
3 E of Wright, MN (Carlton County)  3.5"
3 NE of Floodwood, MN (St. Louis County)  3.3"
3 NE of Hermantown, MN (St. Louis County)  2.8" NWS total.

Cass Lake, MN (Cass County)  2.5"
Ashland, WI (Ashland County)  2.5"
25 E of Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  2.4"
8 S of Bigfork, MN (Itasca County)  2.0"
3 W of Phillips, WI (Price County)  1.5"

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  January 26, 2016

Mostly cloudy skies today although some peeks of sun did occur in spots.  Lingering flurries and light snow showers with high temperatures in the 20s.  Winds were out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 26)

Mostly cloudy skies but some partial clearing could develop at times.  A few flurries mainly this evening.  Lows in the single digits and teens with northwest winds to start which will shift to the southwest after Midnight.

Wednesday and Wednesday night (January 27)

A strong area of low pressure will move into Western Manitoba Province tomorrow morning - This low will stay just north of Minnesota tomorrow before it moves over Central Lake Superior tomorrow night.

Rather strong but brief forcing will spread SE through the Northland tomorrow on the south flank of this storm, this coupled with a strong push of warm air will likely result in about a 1-3 hour period of snow which will track northwest-southeast through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday.  There is also a chance for some patchy freezing drizzle due to the amount of warm air that'll be spreading into our area from the west and northwest.

Temperatures tomorrow and tomorrow night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Winds on Wednesday will be out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts, winds tomorrow night will shift to the west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Low to Medium.

Thursday through Saturday (January 28-30)

Strong low pressure heads into Eastern Canada on Thursday while a cold front drops south out of Ontario Province and through the Northland - Scattered snow showers and flurries are possible on Thursday with highs in the 20s and 30s, lows Thursday night will be in the single digits, teens and 20s.

The next chance for precipitation occurs on Friday as another low pressure disturbance approaches from the west or northwest.  Quite a bit of uncertainty as to the amount of precipitation for this late week system - A few computer models show several inches of snow and possibly even some icy precipitation while others keep the precipitation in extreme Northern Minnesota or further north into Ontario Province.  Stay tuned.

Could be some lingering scattered snow or mixed showers in the Northland on Saturday.

High temperatures on Friday and Saturday are forecast to be in the 20s and 30s with lows Friday night in the 20s to around 30 degrees.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Low.

(January 31-February 5)

Continuing to monitor the model trends for February 1-3 as a strong low pressure system could develop over the Rockies and Plains, this storm could affect Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on the 2nd-3rd with some snow.  The track of this storm remains uncertain though and it remains possible that this system will track too far to our south to impact our area.

One other thing to keep an eye on will be the wind direction during the early-middle portion of next week...Could have an east or northeast wind develop over Lake Superior, this combined with low ice coverage and cold air in place could cause lake effect snow along the North and South Shores of Lake Superior between Monday and Wednesday of next week.

Near to below average temperatures are forecast from January 31-February 5.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Evening flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest late.

.Wednesday...  Breezy.  Snow showers from late morning through the afternoon.  Total snowfall accumulations of around 1".  Mostly cloudy.  High 27 to 32.  Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday night...  Breezy.  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 27 to 32.

.Thursday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 16 to 21.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow possible.  High 25 to 30.

.Friday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow possible.  Low 25 to 30.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  20
Low:    2

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:40 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   5:04 PM CST

Tim