Tuesday, January 19, 2016

January 19, 2016 Weather Report - Slow warming trend continues; Near 30 by Sunday

/Issued 4:19 PM CST, Tuesday, January 19, 2016/

Two shots of arctic air this month, pretty good considering were in a strong El Nino episode, but now were heading into a pattern which should support milder temperatures which should last pretty much the rest of this month.  No were not talking 40 or 50 degree temperatures (yet) in Minnesota or Wisconsin but daytime highs in the teens, 20s and maybe a few days in the 30s are expected.  The map below is the 8-14 day temperature probability outlook valid January 27-February 2, 2016.  Source, Climate Prediction Center.

Orange and red colors on the map=Above average temperatures.



















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.



















Wednesday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.



















Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  January 19, 2016

Widespread single digits and low teens ABOVE zero across the Northland today but boy it sure felt a lot warmer! Partly to mostly cloudy skies with south, southwest or southeast winds today at around 5-15 mph.  

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 19)

Partly to mostly cloudy.  A chance for a little bit of snow or flurries mainly West/South.  Lows will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero but temperatures in the teens to near 20 below can't be ruled out for one more night in the typical cold spots.  Not much wind tonight with wind speeds generally around 12 mph or less with the direction coming out of the south.

Wednesday and Wednesday night (January 20)

High pressure will remain centered to our southeast while a weak disturbance moves out of the Northern Plains.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue on Wednesday.  Could be a few flurries or light snow showers in spots but this shouldn't be any big deal.  Highs tomorrow in the teens to near 20 degrees with lows Wednesday night in the single digits and teens.  Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph tomorrow and from the south, west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph tomorrow night.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (January 21-23)

A few flurries are possible on Thursday with a chance for lake effect snow showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin late this week as a northerly flow develops over Lake Superior.  

Highs on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Thursday night in the single digits below to teens above zero.  

Highs on Friday and Saturday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Friday night in the single digits and teens.

No real weather to talk about outside of the South Shore lake effect snow potential on Thursday and Friday.  A pretty tranquil weather pattern for our area from Thursday through Saturday.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(January 24-29)

A light snowfall event could affect portions of Northeast Minnesota or Northwest Wisconsin Sunday-Monday (24th-25th) No major storms through the 29th of January.  Above average temperatures on the 24th, near to possibly below average temperatures on the 25th-26th, then near to above average temperatures once again from the 27th-29th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5 below.  Wind south around 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Scattered flurries possible.  High 15 to 20.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday night...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  Low 7 to 12.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 18 to 23.

.Thursday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 3 to 8.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

.Friday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 22 to 27.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  19
Low:    1

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:46 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:53 PM CST

Tim