Monday, January 18, 2016

January 18, 2016 Weather Report - Around 10 above Tuesday; Soaring to 20 above by Thursday

/Issued 4:22 PM CST, Monday, January 18, 2016/

January 1-17, 2016 temperature departure map.  Most of Minnesota and Wisconsin are running close to average or a little below average so far this month.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.



















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.



















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.



















After a very mild start to the month, temperatures over the past week or so have cooled off significantly, and as a result most of Minnesota is now averaging near to even slightly below average in the temperature department for January.  Now the big question is this...will January 2016 become the first below average temperature month in almost a year?  Time will tell.  Note:  Duluth's last below average temperature month occurred in February of 2015!

Duluth:

Average temperature:  10.1 degrees

Departure:  -0.1 degrees below normal

International Falls:

Average temperature:  6.1 degrees
Departure:  +1.9 degrees above normal

Twin Cities:

Average temperature:  14.2 degrees

Departure:  -1.2 degrees below normal

St. Cloud:

Average temperature:  10.4 degrees

Departure:  -1.0 degree below normal

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  January 18, 2016

One nice thing about arctic air is that there's usually quite a bit of sunshine to go along with the cold temperatures, and that is the case in most of the Northland today with the exceptions being over the Arrowhead of Minnesota and also around the Bayfield Peninsula along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin where there's been cloudier sky conditions.  Some lake effect flurries and snow showers along the South Shore today, dry for the rest of us.  Highs were in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  Winds were out of the west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 18)

High pressure lingers over the Upper Midwest tonight which will give us partly to at times mostly cloudy skies.  The heart of the arctic airmass has shifted off to our east today as evidence by the increasing 500mb heights and slightly milder 850mb temperatures - Mid level heights have risen to around 528 meters this afternoon and 850mb temperatures have climbed to around -20C.  Low temperatures tonight will be in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero with generally a light and variable wind direction at around 10 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday night (January 19)

High pressure will move slowly off to the east while a weak disturbance approaches from the west.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Tuesday.  There is a chance for a little bit of light snow or flurry action from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night but no more than a dusting of accumulation is expected.  Highs tomorrow will be in the single digits and teens with lows tomorrow night in the single digits below to single digits above zero although teens below are possible in the typical cold spots.  Winds will be out of the south, southwest or southeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Note: Lake effect snow showers could develop on Tuesday along the North Shore of Lake Superior mainly northeast of Silver Bay.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (January 20-22)

A few flurries or snow showers from mid to late week but no significant amount of snow, maybe a dusting at best.  High temperatures in the teens on Wednesday and Friday with teens and 20s on Thursday.  Lows Wednesday night and Thursday night will be in the single digits below to teens above zero.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(January 23-28)

Near to above average temperatures are expected from the 23rd-24th, and again from the 27th-28th.  Near to possibly below average temperatures on the 25th-26th.  No major storms showing up in the long range that would affect our weather.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Some passing clouds.  Low 10 below to 15 below.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible later in the day.  High 7 to 12.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 0 to 5 above.  Wind south around 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  High 15 to 20.

.Wednesday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 18 to 23.

.Thursday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5 above.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  19
Low:    1

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:47 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:52 PM CST

Tim