Sunday, January 17, 2016

January 17, 2016 Weather Report - A slow warming trend after Monday; Great Lakes ice coverage maps included in this post

/Issued 3:25 PM CST, Sunday, January 17, 2016/

Here's something Minnesota hasn't seen in a while - A week of below average temperatures!  Last week temperatures ranged from -9 to around -15 degrees colder than normal in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
















Last week's precipitation departure map.  Above average precip across the North, below average over the South.

















Lake Superior ice coverage maps.

January 15, 2016:  2.2% ice coverage.
















January 17, 2016:  3.0% ice coverage - There's been some increase in the coverage of ice over Lake Superior during the past few days.
















6.7% of the Great Lakes are covered by ice as of January 16, 2016.  This is up from 0.6% on the 1st of the month.
















Wind chill advisory remains in effect for tonight and Monday morning (Light blue shaded area on map)  Source, aerisweather.com
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Bitterly cold wind chills once again tonight and Monday morning.  Here's the forecasted wind chill temperatures for 6 AM Monday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

January 10-16

High temperatures

1/10:  0 F/-19 degrees below normal
1/11:  -1 F/-20 degrees below normal
1/12:  0 F/-19 degrees below normal
1/13:  11 F/-8 degrees below normal
1/14:  22 F/+3 degrees above normal
1/15:  23 F/+4 degrees above normal
1/16:  1 F/-18 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

1/10:  -18 F/-19 degrees below normal
1/11:  -21 F/-22 degrees below normal
1/12:  -11 F/-12 degrees below normal
1/13:  -9 F/-10 degrees below normal
1/14:  10 F/+9 degrees above normal
1/15:  1 F/Normal
1/16:  -15 F/-16 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  0.31"
Normal:  0.23"
Departure:  +0.08" above normal

*Lowest wind chill temperatures from this morning, January 17, 2016*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Silver Bay Marine, MN:  -52 below
3 E of Hermantown, MN:  -48 below
2 WNW of Palmers, MN:  -47 below
Duluth, MN (Airport)  -46 below
Grand Rapids, MN (Airport)  -46 below
Cook, MN:  -44 below
Cloquet, MN:  -43 below
Walker, MN:  -43 below
Ely, MN:  -41 below
Bruno, MN:  -41 below

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  January 17, 2016

Lots of sunshine in the Northland today but temperatures were on the chilly side with highs in the single digits below to around 1 above zero.  A mid/upper level low was exiting to the east this afternoon with 500mb temperatures underneath this upper low as low as -44C.  Winds today were out of the west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Monday night (January 17-18)

Arctic high pressure builds over the Upper Midwest through Monday night.  Clear to partly cloudy skies will be found in our area with continued frigid temperatures.  Lows tonight will be in the teens and 20s below zero with 30s below possible in the typical cold spots.  Highs on Monday will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  Lows Monday night will be in the single digits, teens and 20s below.  West or northwest winds through Monday night at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tuesday through Thursday (January 19-21)

High pressure shifts off to the east on Tuesday which will allow a weak disturbance or two to affect the region from Tuesday night through Thursday, could be a light coating of snow in some parts of the Northland during the middle of week.

High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tuesday night in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.  Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the teens, possibly even into the 20s for some.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(January 22-27)

Near to above average temperatures are forecast from the 22nd-27th.  A minor snowfall event could affect the Northland sometime around the 24th-26th time frame.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Timing:  Until Noon CST Monday.

.Tonight...  Frigid.  Mostly clear.  Low 18 below to 23 below.  Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.  Wind chills 30 below to 40 below.

.Monday...  Very cold.  Partly cloudy.  High 2 below to 3 above.  Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.  Morning wind chills 30 below to 40 below.

.Monday night...  Very cold.  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 below to 20 below.  Wind northwest around 10 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 8 to 13.

.Tuesday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 0 to 5 above.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 15 to 20.

.Wednesday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 5 to 10.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  19
Low:    1

Sunrise Monday:  7:48 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   4:51 PM CST

Tim