Friday, January 15, 2016

January 15, 2016 Weather Report - Dangerously cold for the next several days (Stay safe!) Minnesota snow depth map included in this post; Warming up late next week!

/Issued 5:13 PM CST, Friday, January 15, 2016/

A cold weather fans dream come true! This is a classic setup for arctic air for Minnesota and Wisconsin.  A strong upper level low digs south/southeast into the Upper Midwest and Lake Superior this weekend.  500mb temperatures will be as low as -40C underneath this upper low, very impressive!  Source, 18z NAM 500mb map valid for Sunday morning; Pivotal weather.com
















Wind chill advisory covers a large chunk of Minnesota for tonight and Saturday (Light blue shaded area on map)  More information at the link below.  Note:  Additional wind chill advisories or warnings will likely be needed through Monday.  Source, Aerisweather.com

Wind chill advisory:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=wind%20chill%20advisory
















Minnesota snow depth map as of January 14, 2016.  Source, MNDNR.  Note:  Text reports below.




















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Saturday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Still seeing signs of a rather significant warm up in the long range - The 2 maps below are the forecasted 850mb temperature anomalies.  Blue and purple colors represent well below average temperatures.  Source, 12z EUROPEAN ensemble model; TropicalTidbits.com

Sunday, January 17.














Fast forward to Saturday, January 23 - Look what happens! Well above average temperatures could return to Minnesota.  Red and pink colors represent above to well above average temperatures.  If this verifies then we could be talking about high temperatures soaring into the 20s and possibly even into the 30s in some parts of the state by next weekend.















Snowfall report for January 14-15, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

5 NE of Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)  2.0"
Grand Portage, MN (Cook County)  4.0"
5 NW of Walker, MN (Cass County)  4.5"
5 SSE of Libby, MN (Aitkin County)  2.5"

Gile, WI (Iron County)  1.8"
2 NNW of Marcell, MN (Itasca County)  3.1"
1 WNW of Cass Lake, MN (Cass County)  5.5"
Embarrass, MN (St. Louis County)  4.0"

Leonidas, MN (St. Louis County)  4.0"
6 SW of Snow Bank Lake, MN (Lake County)  4.0"
Chisholm, MN (St. Louis County)  3.8"
3 NNE of Finland, MN (Lake County)  3.5"

3 WSW of Lutsen, MN (Cook County)  3.4"
6 SW of Butternut, WI (Price County)  3.2"
Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  2.5" National Weather Service total
Beaver Bay, MN (Lake County)  2.5"

2 SW of Crosslake, MN (Crow Wing County)  1.9"
3 SE of Superior, WI (Douglas County)  1.5"
Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  3.0"
3 NNW of Butternut, WI (Ashland County)  3.0"

Cook, MN (St. Louis County)  2.7"
Larsmont, MN (Lake County)  3.5"

Snow depth report as of January 15, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  11"
International Falls, MN:  7"
3 E of Wright, MN:  7"
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN:  6"
Cook, MN:  10"
3 E of Orr, MN:  10"
3 S of Ashland, WI:  10"
1 WSW of Saxon, WI:  13"
Hurley, WI:  17"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  14"

Weather Tidbits:

*So far this month 5 subzero low temperature days at Duluth, Minnesota and 3 days with a high temperature of 0 F or colder.  The average for the entire month of January is 15 days with a 0 F or colder low temperature.

*So far this month 6 subzero low temperature days at International Falls, Minnesota and 3 days with a high temperature of 0 F or colder.  The average for the entire month of January is 21 days with a 0 F or colder low temperature.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  January 15, 2016

Low pressure of 994mb was over Western lower Michigan late this afternoon while a surface trough extended northwest into Lake Superior.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies in Western portions of the area today while it was mainly overcast elsewhere.  Patchy freezing drizzle developed this morning in parts of the Northland and there's also been an interesting feature (Somewhat of a Lake swirl) that formed off the North Shore of Lake Superior this morning and as of late afternoon continued to rotate slowly toward the south - This feature has been producing some fairly robust snow showers near Lake Superior this afternoon.  High temperatures today ranged from the single digits in Western-Northwest areas to the 20s in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds today were out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 15)

Cold air advection will continue to pour into the Northland tonight with 850mb temperatures dropping from -10 to -14C late this afternoon to as low as -20C Overnight.  Snow showers and flurries will continue early this evening near Lake Superior otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight with lows in the single digits above to single digits below zero in Northwest Wisconsin to the teens and 20s below zero in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday night (January 16)

Arctic high pressure averaging 1035mb will build S/SE into the Northern Rockies on Saturday while a cold core mid and upper level area of low pressure approaches from the north.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected tomorrow and tomorrow night with a chance for a few snow flurries.  Highs will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with lows Saturday night in the teens and 20s below zero.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to around 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Sunday through Tuesday (January 17-19)

Bitterly cold! Arctic high pressure will be in control of our weather from Sunday through Tuesday.  High temperatures will be in the single digits and teens below on Sunday with lows Sunday night in the teens, 20s and 30s below.  Highs on Monday will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with lows Monday night in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero with 30s below quite possible again in the typical cold spots.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the single digits to around 10 above.

Note:  Lake effect snow showers will occur starting tonight and lasting through early next week along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.  A significant amount of snow will likely accumulate by Monday in portions of Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties.

Note:  Dangerously cold wind chills ranging from 25 below to around 45 below will develop at times through early next week in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(January 20-25)

Near to below average temperatures from the 20th-22nd followed by near to possibly above average temperatures from the 23rd-25th.  No major storms showing up that would affect the Northland during the long range but we could see a light snowfall event at some point between the 20th-24th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WIND CHILL ADVISORY for Duluth*
Timing:  Midnight tonight until Noon CST Saturday.

.Tonight...  Breezy with areas of blowing snow.  Turning colder.  Snow showers and flurries early this evening with accumulations of up to 1" possible.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Wind chills 20 below to 30 below.

.Saturday...  Very cold.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 0 to 5 above.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Wind chills 20 below to 30 below before Noon.

.Saturday night...  Frigid.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 below to 20 below.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Frigid.  Partly sunny.  High 1 below to 6 below.

.Sunday night...  Bitterly cold.  Mostly clear.  Low 18 below to 23 below.

.Monday...  Very cold.  Partly cloudy.  High 2 below to 3 above.

.Monday night...  Frigid.  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 below to 20 below.

.Tuesday...  Very cold.  Partly cloudy.  High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  19
Low:    1

Sunrise Saturday:  7:49 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:48 PM CST

Tim