Thursday, January 14, 2016

January 14, 2016 Weather Report - Snow into Friday morning (Winter weather advisory in effect for parts of the Northland) Bitter cold/dangerous wind chills this weekend; Warmer times ahead (Near 30 degrees by the weekend of the 23rd?)

/Issued 5:06 PM CST, Thursday, January 14, 2016/

Water vapor satellite image and surface map from 4:30 PM CST today.  Low pressure (Red L on the map) heads east and then northeast (Storm track is the black line on map)  Source, COD website.
















Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 5 PM CST.  Source, WSI.

Blue=Snow














Winter Weather Advisory in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin (Purple shaded area on map)  More information at the link below.

Winter Weather Advisory:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory





























Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Friday's high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















*Preliminary snowfall report for January 14, 2016*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

3 NE of Hermantown, MN (St. Louis County)  1.2" National Weather Service total thru 4:15 PM CST today.

Beaver Bay, MN (Lake County)  1.0"
Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)  1.4"
7 WSW of Pine River, MN (Cass County)  1.0"

3 W of Iron Junction, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0"
5 S of Libby, MN (Aitkin County)  1.9"
5 N of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  2.0"
1 W of Cass Lake, MN (Cass County)  3.0"

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  January 14, 2016

An area of low pressure averaging 996mb was centered over far Eastern South Dakota/Southwest Minnesota late this afternoon with a potent mid/upper level trough with 12-hour 500mb height falls of up to 120 meters heading south/east through the Northern Plains and Western High Plains this afternoon.  A very tight thermal gradient remains in place across the region today with late afternoon 850mb temperatures ranging from +6C in Southern Minnesota to -10C in far Northern Minnesota to around -20C north of Lake Superior.  This temperature contrast combined with the warmer air to our south being lifted north into a colder airmass has led to more snow in parts of the Northland today, we've also seen some banding in the snow today which has led to a few brief periods of moderate snowfall especially along and to the south of the Highway 2 corridor.  Highs today were in the teens with low and mid 20s in Eastern Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds were out of the east or northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 14)

Low pressure will track from the Eastern South Dakota-Southwest Minnesota vicinity late this afternoon to Southeast Wisconsin by daybreak, a trough will develop and extend northwest of the surface low during the night.  Light snow will continue to affect the Northland tonight and there's even a chance for some patchy freezing drizzle mainly in parts of Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows will range from the single digits below to single digits above zero across Northern Minnesota to the teens and 20s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will be out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday and Friday night (January 15)

An area of low pressure will track from Southeast Wisconsin to Southeast Ontario by late Friday night while a trough lingers near the Northland.  Light snow and flurries will continue in parts of the area on Friday otherwise expect partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.  Highs tomorrow will be in the single digits in Northern Minnesota to the 20s in Northwest Wisconsin.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies for Friday night with lows in the teens and 20s below in Northern Minnesota to the single digits below to single digits above zero in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds tomorrow and tomorrow night will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Note:  E/NE wind could lead to some lake enhanced snow tonight and Friday morning along the North Shore and South Shore of Lake Superior, then will see the wind shift to the N/NW Friday afternoon through Saturday which will focus the lake effect snow on the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (January 16-18)

Arctic high pressure will build into the Upper Midwest this weekend while a strong upper level area of low pressure digs south/southeast out of Manitoba and Ontario Provinces.  A few flurries are possible Saturday and Sunday but overall it looks mainly dry in our area outside of the South Shore of Lake Superior where periods of lake effect snow showers are expected from Saturday through Monday.

The big story will be the cold temperatures.  Highs on Saturday will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with lows Saturday night in the single digits, teens and 20s below.  Highs on Sunday will range from around zero to the teens below with lows Sunday night in the teens, 20s and possibly even 30s below zero.  Highs on Monday will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero.

Note:  Dangerously cold wind chills of 20 below to 45 below zero will develop at times beginning Friday night and lasting into early next week - Wind chill advisories or warnings may be needed in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin in coming days.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium to High.

(January 19-24)

Below average temperatures on the 19th and 20th followed by near to possibly above average temperatures from the 21st-24th.  There are some signs showing up per long range model guidance which suggest high temperatures could reach 30 degrees or close to it in parts of the Northland by next weekend (23rd-24th) Not seeing any big storms that would affect our area during the long range but we could see a minor snowfall event at some point between the 20th-24th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  Until Noon CST Friday.

.Tonight...  Occasional snow.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming north late.  Areas of blowing snow possible.

.Friday...  Light snow and flurries.  Total event snowfall accumulation of 3-5".  High 20 to 25.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 5 to 10.

.Saturday night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 15 below to 20 below.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 0 to 5 below.

.Sunday night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 18 below to 23 below.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 2 below to 3 above.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  19
Low:    1

Sunrise Friday:  7:49 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   4:47 PM CST

Tim