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Showing posts from March, 2013

April begins with a winter chill.

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/Issued 7:12 PM CDT, Sunday, March 31st, 2013/

Temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Highs for March 24-30, 2013

3/24:  29F/9 degrees below normal
3/25:  36F/2 degrees below normal
3/26:  37F/2 degrees below normal
3/27:  44F/5 degrees above normal
3/28:  46F/6 degrees above normal
3/29:  49F/9 degrees above normal
3/30:  53F/13 degrees above normal

Lows for March 24-30, 2013

3/24:  22F/1 degree above normal
3/25:  16F/5 degrees below normal
3/26:  28F/6 degrees above normal
3/27:  24F/2 degrees above normal
3/28:  13F/9 degrees below normal
3/29:  22F/1 degree below normal
3/30:  35F/12 degrees above normal

Total precipitation for March 24-30, 2013:  0.46"
Normal:  0.37"
Departure:  +0.09"

*Last week's temperature departure map.  Another below average week despite the mid-late week warm up.
























*Last week's precipitation departure map.  Friday Night's rain event in Duluth saved us from having a below average week.

























Weather Tidbits:

-Updated April outlook from the…

Happy Easter! Colder temps and gusty NW winds on tap for Easter Sunday-flurries are also possible.

/Issued 8:06 PM CDT, Saturday, March 30th, 2013/

Rainfall report for March 30, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.44"
Brainerd, MN:  0.14"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.22"
Hibbing, MN:  0.27"
Hayward, WI:  0.15"
Bruno, MN:  0.15"
3 W of Wright, MN:  0.31"
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN:  0.27"
Babbitt, MN:  0.21"
Floodwood, MN:  0.32"
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  0.31"
Finland, MN:  0.34"
Ashland, WI:  0.21"
Gurney, WI:  0.20"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.22"

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*It finally happened!  The temperature climbed to a balmy 52 degrees Today, March 30th.  This is the 1st day at or above 50F since Thanksgiving (November 22, 2012)

*March 2013 will be the 4th month in a row that'll finish above average in precipitation (Dec-Mar)

*2.03" of precipitation has fallen this month which is 0.60" above average.  Since January 1st, we've had 4.58" of precipit…

Rain arrives later Tonight, leaves Saturday AM; Isolated thunder threat after Midnight? Colder Sunday-Monday with snow showers and flurries.

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/Issued 4:42 PM CDT, Friday, March 29th, 2013/

-Here's a pretty cool tool provided by the HRRR model.  This shows where lightning may occur at 2 AM CDT Tonight.  Light blue areas=a small chance.




















*18z NAM-HIRES model for 4 AM CDT Tonight.  Some decent downpours possible in Eastern Minnesota late Tonight, note the yellow and orange colors, this means there could be some locally heavy rain showers.
















Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*48F thru 4 PM Today, warmest day of 2013 so far.  If we hit 50 Today, it would be the 1st time doing so since Thanksgiving Day (November 22 2012)

*Today is the 3rd day in a row with a high temperature of at least 40F (27th-29th)

*13 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 32F.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Parts of the Northland reached 50 degrees or even a little warmer than 50 degrees Today, the rest of us were in the 40s, except at the head of Lake Superior where mid/upper 30s prevailed (li…

Patchy fog possible Tonight; Friday sprinkles? Some rain late Friday Night-Saturday AM; Cold shot Sunday-Monday.

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/Issued 3:42 PM CDT, Thursday, March 28th, 2013/

*Here's the thunder probability map for late Friday Night (Around 1 AM CDT) per 15z SREF model from 3.28.13.  A chance for t'storms as far north as Southwest Minnesota for Friday Night.




















Weather Tidbits:

-High temperature of 44F on March 27th at Duluth, Minnesota was the warmest high temperature recorded so far this month, and also the warmest temperature of 2013 so far.

-March 27th was the 1st time since January 10th with a high temperature of at least 40F at Duluth, Minnesota.

-It's been a dry pattern as of late.  Today marks the 10th day in a row without a precipitation total of 0.01" or greater at Duluth, Minnesota.  This streak should end Friday Night/Saturday.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Another great day with near to slightly above average temperatures throughout the Northland.  Highs ranged from the upper 30s to middle 40s with even a few upper 40s at Bigfork and Cra…

Someone pinch me! 3 days in a row with a high near 40 or into the 40s in Duluth? Cold wave hits Easter Sunday.

/Issued 3:40 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 27th, 2013/

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

So, this is what Normal late March temperatures feel like, eh? Not a bad early spring day with a mix of sun and clouds across the Northland.  High temperatures were in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Winds were light and variable around 10 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

Northwest flow continues across the Upper Midwest per RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -2 to -8C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Thursday Night (March 27th-28th)

High pressure rules during this period.  Lows Tonight will range from the single digits to the 20s.  Highs Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s.  Lows Thursday Night mainly in the 20s.  Expect partly to at times mostly cloudy skies through Thursday Night.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sund…

Near-Normal temperatures thru Saturday; Sharply colder Easter Sunday/Monday; Possible rain-snow showers Saturday.

/Issued 3:45 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 26th, 2013/

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Well, it sure wasn't as sunny as I thought it would be Today, and we even had some surprise snow showers and flurries scattered about in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, other than that the temperature part of the forecast verified quite well with daytime highs in the 30s.  Winds were light and from the east around the head of Lake Superior with northwest winds elsewhere.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

A northwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM were around -8C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 26th)

High pressure will be in control of our weather, with that said expect some lingering scattered flurries This Evening, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies…

Party time? High temps trend toward AVERAGE mid-late week; Slap in the face early next week (Colder again) Storm 1st week of April?

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/Issued 3:59 PM CDT, Monday, March 25th, 2013/

*Trouble may be brewing as we head through next week.  Image below is from the 12z GFS model and is valid for NEXT Wednesday, April 3, 2013.  This is the QPF or precipitation forecast and the amounts this model shows are quite impressive.  Yellow and reds are anywhere from 0.50-1.00".  At the moment it looks like the precipitation would fall mostly as rain which would be very bad news since there's still a ton of snow on the ground so any rain on top of the snow pack would just run off.  Note:  No need to panic just yet, the models aren't in the best of agreement for next week so this system could very well disappear in future model runs.




















*This next image is the 12z ECMWF (European model)  It's also valid for NEXT Wednesday AM April 3, 2013.  It also shows a weather system, but this model has 2 separate lows, one NW in Western Canada and the other over the Central Plains, so it's a little bit different than the 12z GFS…

A quiet weather week ahead; Warmest temps of the month (40s later this week?) Stormier weather 1st week of April?

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/Issued 4:39 PM CDT, Sunday, March 24th, 2013/

High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

March 17-23, 2013

3/17:  23F/12 degrees below normal
3/18:  27F/8 degrees below normal
3/19:  22F/13 degrees below normal
3/20:  18F/18 degrees below normal
3/21:  30F/6 degrees below normal
3/22:  33F/4 degrees below normal
3/23:  36F/1 degree below normal

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

March 17-23, 2013

3/17:  -13F/31 degrees below normal
3/18:  15F/3 degrees below normal
3/19:  6F/13 degrees below normal
3/20:  3F/16 degrees below normal
3/21:  -2F/22 degrees below normal
3/22:  8F/12 degrees below normal
3/23:  6F/14 degrees below normal

Last week's precipitation total:  0.32"
Average:  0.35"
Departure:  -0.03"

*Temperature departure map for 3/17-3/23 2013.  Was it cold enough for ya last week?  Incredible temperature departures across the Upper Midwest.






















*Precipitation departure map for 3/17-3/23 2013.























----------------------…

A few flurries possible late Tonight-Sunday; Possible pattern change 1st week of April?

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/Issued 5:48 PM CDT, Saturday, March 23rd, 2013/

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Skies were partly to mostly cloudy Today with highs in the 30s.  Winds were out of the north or east at around 10 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

A broad upper trough covered the Rockies, Central Plains and Northern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery, seeing a SW flow develop out ahead of this trough over the Upper Midwest (this will only be temporary, however)  850mb temperatures as of 5 PM ranged from -8 to -10C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term, Extended, and Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(Tonight, March 23rd through April 2nd)

A relatively quiet weather pattern rolls on throughout the Northland.  No major storms in sight.  A few snow flurries can't be ruled out Tonight and Sunday, but no accumulations are expected.  Might begin to see the pattern shift on or a little after April…

A good weekend to enjoy the deep snow pack, don't forget the sunscreen.

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/Issued 4:02 PM CDT, Friday, March 22nd, 2013/

-Minnesota snow depth map as of March 21, 2013.  (Source, MNDNR)

Still lots of snow on the ground across most of the Gopher state.  Duluth has about 18-20" on the ground.  Bigfork has close to 30".  International Falls has about 24".  Locations along the North Shore of Lake Superior have snow depths of 18-30".






















-Here's the snow depth ranking map for March 21, 2013.  (Source, MNDNR)

Yes, it's quite unusual to have this much snow on the ground in late March.  For example, the map above has Duluth with 18" of snow on the ground, looking at the snow depth ranking map you find Duluth sits in the 80-95 percentile range, meaning there's only been 5 to 20 other March 21 snow depths that were greater than or equal to 18".  Note:  This is based on 100 years of weather records.



























Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

You get sunshine in March and it feels pretty nice even th…

10+ days of relatively quiet weather, enjoy; Stays chilly-no major warmup in sight.

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/Issued 3:56 PM CDT, Thursday, March 21st, 2013/

*Brand new U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook was issued Today.  All of Minnesota can expect improving conditions in the ongoing drought through June 30th, 2013.  (Source, NOAA)


















Weather Tidbits:

-Climate Prediction Center issued it's April forecast Today.  Equal chance for Above, Below or Normal temperatures in Duluth with a 40% chance for above normal precipitation.  

-90 day outlook, runs from April through June calls for an equal chance for above, below or normal temperatures and precipitation in Duluth.

-No changes in this week's drought monitor in Minnesota, but there were some changes in Wisconsin with the Moderate drought shrinking in size; 48% this week vs. 60% last week. 

Low temperature report for March 21, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

International Falls, MN:  -16F
Brainerd, MN:  -11F
Bigfork, MN:  -15F
Longville, MN:  -13F
Pine River, MN:  -13F
Siren, WI:  -6F
Superior, WI:  -1F
Cass Lake, MN:  -12F
Northome, MN:  …

BRRR!! Happy 1st day of spring.

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/Issued 3:49 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 20th, 2013/

*Here's the 6-10 day temperature outlook valid for March 26-30, 2013.  Incredibly high odds for below normal temperatures in much of the Central/Eastern U.S.  (Source, Climate Prediction Center)

























Note:  March 2013 has made it into the top 10 for snowiest March's at Duluth, Minnesota.  As of the 19th, the monthly snowfall total was at 25.5" which ties with 2007 for 10th place.  I don't see many opportunities for snow through the rest of the month, so it looks like will remain tied in the number 10 spot.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota:

-Thru March 19th, the average monthly temperature was at 18.5F which is 5.1 degrees colder than normal.

-It's pretty much a lock that March will finish with a below average temperature which means that February-March 2013 will be the 1st time with back to back below average temperature months since May-June 2011.

-So far this month, only 6 days with a high temperature of at least 32F…

Winter storm warning Tonight-Wed east of the Twin Ports; Hazardous wind chills Tonight. LRC scores for last week in this post.

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/Issued 3:43 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 19th, 2013/

*Instead of melting the snow pack were adding to it across much of the Upper Midwest.  As of March 19, 2013:  85% of the Upper Midwest was covered by snow vs. just 2% at this time last year.












*This next image shows the snow water equivalent as of March 19, 2013.  There's a lot of water in the snow pack in much of Western-Northern Minnesota (as much as 2-3" in spots) This isn't good if you live in the Red River Valley or near any river in Minnesota for that matter.

This snow pack isn't going anywhere thru at least April 1st.  This is bad because eventually temperatures will warm up (possibly significantly) and this snow will melt.  The longer it stays cold (no melting) the worse it may be in terms of flooding as we head through April.  The ideal scenario is that we see a slow thaw, about a week or so of temperatures in the 40s, lows near freezing with no precipitation.  Getting that to happen is easier said than done.

The g…