Sunday, March 31, 2013

April begins with a winter chill.

/Issued 7:12 PM CDT, Sunday, March 31st, 2013/

Temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Highs for March 24-30, 2013

3/24:  29F/9 degrees below normal
3/25:  36F/2 degrees below normal
3/26:  37F/2 degrees below normal
3/27:  44F/5 degrees above normal
3/28:  46F/6 degrees above normal
3/29:  49F/9 degrees above normal
3/30:  53F/13 degrees above normal

Lows for March 24-30, 2013

3/24:  22F/1 degree above normal
3/25:  16F/5 degrees below normal
3/26:  28F/6 degrees above normal
3/27:  24F/2 degrees above normal
3/28:  13F/9 degrees below normal
3/29:  22F/1 degree below normal
3/30:  35F/12 degrees above normal

Total precipitation for March 24-30, 2013:  0.46"
Normal:  0.37"
Departure:  +0.09"

*Last week's temperature departure map.  Another below average week despite the mid-late week warm up.
























*Last week's precipitation departure map.  Friday Night's rain event in Duluth saved us from having a below average week.

























Weather Tidbits:

-Updated April outlook from the Climate Prediction Center was released Today and it has changed from the outlook issued in mid-March.  For April 2013, Duluth has a 33% chance for COLDER than average temperatures with an equal chance for above, below or average precipitation.

-LRC scores for Duluth, MN 3/24-3/30:  Snowfall:  1.6"; Actual:  Trace.  Error of 1.6".  Precipitation:  0.72"; Actual:  0.46".  Error of 0.26".

Today's Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Back to the cold.  After a few days of thawing conditions another blast of cold air has arrived as we close out the month of March.  Highs Today were in the 20s and 30s, well below normal for the 31st of March.  Skies were partly sunny-mostly cloudy and there's been scattered flurries and snow showers throughout the Northland.  Winds were gusty and out of the northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Monday Night (March 31st-April 1st)

Strong low pressure to our east and high pressure to our west will result in a cold, but generally dry weather pattern in the Northland.  The exception to this will be along the South Shore of Lake Superior where lake effect snow showers could produce accumulations of 1-4" by Monday PM, this would most likely affect Iron and possibly Ashland County.  Lows Tonight and Monday Night will be in the single digits and teens.  Highs on Monday mainly in the 20s.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts possible.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (April 2nd-4th)

It stays cold on Tuesday with high pressure overhead.  Highs will mainly be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with lows Tuesday Night in the single digits and teens.  Wednesday and Thursday will see low pressure to our northwest/north while a cold front passes through our area from Wednesday Evening into Thursday Morning.  It continues to look like the bulk of the more significant precipitation with this midweek system will stay north of us in Ontario, but a few showers of rain or snow may occur in parts of our area Wednesday Night into Thursday.  Highs for Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Wednesday Night mainly in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(April 5th-9th)

Well, a new day and another set of model runs and things sure have changed in a span of just 24 hours.   Lets start with Friday (5th) which looks dry at this time.  The changes begin this weekend into next week as the forecast models are having trouble determining how the pattern will setup.  Today's trend has been for a more southerly storm track with more of a split flow meaning a Northern branch jet=cool air for us, while the Southern branch of the jet carries a few storm systems out of the Western U.S., Central Plains and Great Lakes.  If these storms come far enough north, then we could be dealing with a mix of snow and rain, and possibly even a significant winter storm at some point between the 6th-9th.  Stay tuned.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Colder.  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Snow flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.  Temperatures:  Below Normal.

.Monday...  Chilly.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 21 to 26.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Temperatures:  Below Normal.

.Monday Night...  Cold.  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.  Temperatures:  Below Normal.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 28 to 32.  Temperatures:  Below Normal.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Temperatures:  Below Normal.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  Warming up.  High 40 to 45.  Temperatures:  Near Normal.

.Wednesday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Rain showers possible late.  Low 25 to 30.  Temperatures:  Near Normal.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Morning rain showers possible.  High 40 to 45.  Temperatures:  Near Normal.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  41
Low:   24

Sunrise Monday:   6:47 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:    7:38 PM CDT

Tim

Saturday, March 30, 2013

Happy Easter! Colder temps and gusty NW winds on tap for Easter Sunday-flurries are also possible.

/Issued 8:06 PM CDT, Saturday, March 30th, 2013/

Rainfall report for March 30, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.44"
Brainerd, MN:  0.14"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.22"
Hibbing, MN:  0.27"
Hayward, WI:  0.15"
Bruno, MN:  0.15"
3 W of Wright, MN:  0.31"
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN:  0.27"
Babbitt, MN:  0.21"
Floodwood, MN:  0.32"
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  0.31"
Finland, MN:  0.34"
Ashland, WI:  0.21"
Gurney, WI:  0.20"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.22"

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*It finally happened!  The temperature climbed to a balmy 52 degrees Today, March 30th.  This is the 1st day at or above 50F since Thanksgiving (November 22, 2012)

*March 2013 will be the 4th month in a row that'll finish above average in precipitation (Dec-Mar)

*2.03" of precipitation has fallen this month which is 0.60" above average.  Since January 1st, we've had 4.58" of precipitation which is 1.38" wetter than normal.

*25.5" of snow for March, probably won't add anymore to this total, either way it's well above average.  For the season, were at 78.3", and by the looks of the long range models, I don't think will add much more to the seasonal total.  By the way, we average 86.1" in a season.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Started out gloomy as rain came to an end which was followed by a period fog which was locally dense in some areas.  It did clear up in most areas during the Afternoon as low pressure responsible for last night's rainfall in the Northland moved off to our east.  Very nice early spring temperatures with highs in the 40s and 50s Today, winds were out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 30th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with the possibility for a few flurries and snow showers.  Lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s with west or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (March 31st)

A colder airmass will drop south into the Northland during this period as low pressure to our east and high pressure to our west leads to a brisk NW flow.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits and teens.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with a few snow showers or flurries possible.  Winds out of the northwest will be in the 10 to 25 mph range.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (April 1st-3rd)

Monday and Tuesday look pretty chilly especially for early April standards with highs on both of those days in the 20s, with maybe a few 30s for some by Tuesday.  Wednesday will feature modifying temperatures as high pressure moves to our east and we get into a southerly flow with highs getting back into the 30s and 40s.  Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night are forecast to be in the single digits and teens.  This period looks mostly dry at this time.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(April 4th-8th)

Low pressure passes by to our north on Thursday (4th)  A cold front attached to that low will move through our area, still looks like this system will come through on the dry side with precipitation more likely to our north in Ontario.  A pattern change is becoming more likely beginning late next week into the following week.  It appears that a deep trough will setup over the Western U.S., ridging over the Southeast U.S., and a potentially wet/stormy SW flow for the Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  There could be some rain in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin next Saturday (6th) with some more rain possible toward the 8th the way it looks now.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast from the 4th-6th.  Near to above average temperatures for the 7th-8th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Easter Sunday....  Breezy.  Around 20 degrees colder than Saturday.  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries or snow showers possible.  High 30 to 35.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Cold for April.  Partly cloudy.  High 23 to 28.

.Monday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 28 to 33.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  41
Low:  21

Sunrise Sunday:  6:49 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   7:37 PM CDT

Tim



 

Friday, March 29, 2013

Rain arrives later Tonight, leaves Saturday AM; Isolated thunder threat after Midnight? Colder Sunday-Monday with snow showers and flurries.

/Issued 4:42 PM CDT, Friday, March 29th, 2013/

-Here's a pretty cool tool provided by the HRRR model.  This shows where lightning may occur at 2 AM CDT Tonight.  Light blue areas=a small chance.




















*18z NAM-HIRES model for 4 AM CDT Tonight.  Some decent downpours possible in Eastern Minnesota late Tonight, note the yellow and orange colors, this means there could be some locally heavy rain showers.
















Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*48F thru 4 PM Today, warmest day of 2013 so far.  If we hit 50 Today, it would be the 1st time doing so since Thanksgiving Day (November 22 2012)

*Today is the 3rd day in a row with a high temperature of at least 40F (27th-29th)

*13 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 32F.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Parts of the Northland reached 50 degrees or even a little warmer than 50 degrees Today, the rest of us were in the 40s, except at the head of Lake Superior where mid/upper 30s prevailed (light lake wind)  Skies were partly to mostly sunny with winds out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph. 

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 29th)

An area of low pressure will move east through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Tonight.  A southwest low level jet of 30-40 knots is forecast to develop ahead of this system with a warm/moist advection pattern spreading into the Northland Tonight.

Rain should begin to develop after 7-8 PM in Western parts of our area, rain will march east during the rest of the night with all of the Northland getting at least some rain Overnight.  Note:  There's a chance (albeit a small one) for some patchy freezing rain in Northern Minnesota and in the Arrowhead, I don't think this will be very widespread, however, and I'm not expecting any real issues due to freezing rain in Northern Minnesota Tonight.

There's also a small chance for an embedded thunderstorm or two late Tonight, mainly in Eastcentral Minnesota.

Expect skies to turn mostly cloudy Tonight with lows mainly in the 30s.  South, east or west winds are forecast at 5 to 15 mph.

*HRRR model total precipitation forecast for Tonight.  0.10-0.25" of rain is forecast to fall in most of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with locally higher amounts certainly possible.





















Saturday and Saturday Night (March 30th)

Low pressure and a cold front will exit to our south/east Tomorrow Morning with a secondary cold front moving into Northern Minnesota Tomorrow Night.  Could be some lingering rain Saturday Morning, otherwise Saturday Afternoon looks generally dry.  Possible flurries/snow showers in Northern Minnesota Saturday Night, mainly dry elsewhere.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s to lower 30s.  Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Sunday through Tuesday (March 31st-April 2nd)

A cool period as we get back into a chilly N-NW flow late this weekend and early next week.  Scattered snow showers and flurries are expected on Sunday with generally dry conditions for Monday and Tuesday.  Note:  Up to 1" of snow could fall on Sunday in portions of the Northland.  Highs Sunday through Tuesday will be in the 20s and 30s, best shot at 30s would be on Sunday.  Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the single digits and teens.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(April 3rd-7th)

Low pressure passes north of our area on Wednesday while a cold front moves through the Northland.  Still looks like this system comes through on the dry side.  Could be some rain at times between the 5th-7th, but not real sure how this period will unfold with some differences showing up in the long range computer models so stay tuned.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast during this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Increasing cloudiness.  Rain developing after 11 PM.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Rain possible before 9 AM, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.  High 42 to 47.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Easter Sunday...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 30 to 35.  Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Colder.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.

.Monday...  Colder.  Partly sunny.  High 23 to 28.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 28 to 33.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  40
Low:  23

Sunrise Saturday:  6:51 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   7:36 PM CDT

Tim

 

 

Thursday, March 28, 2013

Patchy fog possible Tonight; Friday sprinkles? Some rain late Friday Night-Saturday AM; Cold shot Sunday-Monday.

/Issued 3:42 PM CDT, Thursday, March 28th, 2013/

*Here's the thunder probability map for late Friday Night (Around 1 AM CDT) per 15z SREF model from 3.28.13.  A chance for t'storms as far north as Southwest Minnesota for Friday Night.




















Weather Tidbits:

-High temperature of 44F on March 27th at Duluth, Minnesota was the warmest high temperature recorded so far this month, and also the warmest temperature of 2013 so far.

-March 27th was the 1st time since January 10th with a high temperature of at least 40F at Duluth, Minnesota.

-It's been a dry pattern as of late.  Today marks the 10th day in a row without a precipitation total of 0.01" or greater at Duluth, Minnesota.  This streak should end Friday Night/Saturday.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Another great day with near to slightly above average temperatures throughout the Northland.  Highs ranged from the upper 30s to middle 40s with even a few upper 40s at Bigfork and Crane Lake, Minnesota and Phillips, Wisconsin.  Skies were sunny to partly cloudy and winds were light and variable at around 10 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis reveals a NW flow covering the Upper Midwest.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from 0 to -4C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 28th)

Partly cloudy skies are forecast with patchy fog possible due to the melting snow from Today which is adding a bit of moisture to the atmosphere.  Lows will range from the single digits in the traditional cold spots with teens and 20s elsewhere.  Light and variable winds will continue at around 10 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (March 29th)

High pressure which was over the Upper Midwest Today will be sliding off to our east during this period while low pressure and a cold front move east out of the Northern Plains.  Patchy fog is possible Tomorrow Morning, otherwise expect partly sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the 30s and 40s with even a small chance that a few locales in the Northland could make a run at 50 degrees.  Note:  A few light rain showers or sprinkles can't be ruled out on Friday, but this shouldn't be a very big deal.  Low temperatures Friday Night under mostly cloudy will mainly be in the 30s.  Expect some rain especially after Midnight Tomorrow Night, some of this could be in the form of freezing rain, but this chance is relatively low, and no major icing is expected at this time.  Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.

-Precipitation forecast for Friday Night-Saturday AM.  For the most part this looks like a rain event for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with total amounts of 0.25" or less.  (Source, Weather Prediction Center)


















Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (March 30th-April 1st)

The warmest day of this period will be on Saturday when daytime highs will reach the 30s and 40s once again.  A cold front will exit to our south/east with rain ending from west to east Saturday Morning-early Afternoon.  A stronger cold front is forecast to sweep through the Northland on Sunday with a few snow showers or flurries possible at that time.  Dry weather returns next Monday.  Highs Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s.  Highs on Monday mainly in the 20s which is well below average for early April.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the teens and 20s.  Lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to teens above zero.

-Man, just looking at this map makes me cold.  Here's the 850mb temperature forecast for Monday, April 1st, 2013 per 12z ECMWF ensemble model from 3.28.13.  Not just the cold, but looks fairly windy as well.  Pretty tight pressure gradient between the low to our northeast and high to our west (black lines=wind, closer together they are the windier it is)  Yeah, next Monday looks pretty awful for April.



















Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(April 2nd-6th)

Looking pretty mellow during this period.  A system mid-week (3rd-4th) should pass through the region without much precipitation, and that's about it.  Longer range computer models have indicated a more active weather pattern developing, but they continue to push back the timing as to when this unsettled pattern would kick in, now it looks like it may not be until after the 6th.  Temperatures look to be colder than average from the 2nd-6th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Friday...  Patchy fog possible early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A brief shower or sprinkles possible.  High 37 to 42.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain developing, especially after Midnight.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Rain possible, mainly during the Morning.  Considerable cloudiness.   High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Easter Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 30 to 35.

.Sunday Night...  Colder.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.

.Monday...  Colder.  Partly sunny.  High 22 to 27.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  40
Low:  22

Sunrise Friday:  6:53 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   7:34 PM CDT

Tim

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Someone pinch me! 3 days in a row with a high near 40 or into the 40s in Duluth? Cold wave hits Easter Sunday.

/Issued 3:40 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 27th, 2013/

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

So, this is what Normal late March temperatures feel like, eh? Not a bad early spring day with a mix of sun and clouds across the Northland.  High temperatures were in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Winds were light and variable around 10 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

Northwest flow continues across the Upper Midwest per RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -2 to -8C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Thursday Night (March 27th-28th)

High pressure rules during this period.  Lows Tonight will range from the single digits to the 20s.  Highs Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s.  Lows Thursday Night mainly in the 20s.  Expect partly to at times mostly cloudy skies through Thursday Night.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (March 29th-31st)

Mild temperatures for Friday and Saturday will give way to another blast of cold air late this weekend.  2 cold fronts are forecast to move through our area, one on Saturday, the other on Easter Sunday.  The front on Saturday will bring some rain showers to the Northland with a possible rain/snow mix in the Arrowhead, but overall temperatures do look warm enough to make this a rain event vs. a snow event.  Precipitation amounts still look to be on the light side on Saturday.  Colder air for Sunday's front, so there will probably be some non-accumulating flurries/snow showers falling from the sky.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 30s and 40s, I'd say there's at least a slight chance that a few lucky Northland towns will reach 50, especially on Friday.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s.  Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(April 1st-5th)

No big storms showing up per long range computer models.  Remember a few days ago the GFS model showed a couple of  impressive systems affecting the Upper Midwest during the 1st week of April, well as is often the case with the whacked out GFS model (those storms are long gone)  Looks cold during most of this period with below average temperatures expected.  Hints of a pattern change showing up after April 5th per 12z EUROPEAN model (this change may actually take place since it's the EURO that's showing it)  This period looks mainly dry at this time, although a weak system sometime around the 4th-5th could bring a few minor snow showers to our area.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 18 to 23.  Wind light and variable around 10 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind south to southwest around 10 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain showers possible.  High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Easter Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  39
Low:  22

Sunrise Thursday:  6:55 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   7:33 PM CDT

Tim

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Near-Normal temperatures thru Saturday; Sharply colder Easter Sunday/Monday; Possible rain-snow showers Saturday.

/Issued 3:45 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 26th, 2013/

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Well, it sure wasn't as sunny as I thought it would be Today, and we even had some surprise snow showers and flurries scattered about in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, other than that the temperature part of the forecast verified quite well with daytime highs in the 30s.  Winds were light and from the east around the head of Lake Superior with northwest winds elsewhere.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

A northwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM were around -8C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 26th)

High pressure will be in control of our weather, with that said expect some lingering scattered flurries This Evening, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the single digits, teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest around 10 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (March 27th)

Hoping for more sun Tomorrow compared to what most of us had Today, will see how that goes.  It does look dry this period so no surprise flurries (I'm sure Mother Nature will listen)  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s with a few 40s even possible.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be variable in direction at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (March 28th-30th)

Dry conditions should continue Thursday and Friday.  On Saturday, an area of low pressure and cold front is forecast to pass through the area bringing some rain or snow showers to the Northland.  Note:  Precipitation amounts on Saturday look fairly light at this time.  High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s Thursday through Saturday with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night mainly in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(March 31st-April 4th)

Another shot of very cold air (for this time of year) is forecast to invade the Northland Easter Sunday (31st) and next Monday (1st)  Could see some flurries and snow showers as well on Sunday with mainly dry conditions for the early-mid part of next week.  There could be a system toward the end of next week, most likely toward the 4th of April or beyond, so that'll be something to keep an eye on during the next several days.  Near to below average temperatures should continue through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain or snow showers possible.  High 38 to 43.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  39
Low:  22

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:57 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:31 PM CDT

Tim


Monday, March 25, 2013

Party time? High temps trend toward AVERAGE mid-late week; Slap in the face early next week (Colder again) Storm 1st week of April?

/Issued 3:59 PM CDT, Monday, March 25th, 2013/

*Trouble may be brewing as we head through next week.  Image below is from the 12z GFS model and is valid for NEXT Wednesday, April 3, 2013.  This is the QPF or precipitation forecast and the amounts this model shows are quite impressive.  Yellow and reds are anywhere from 0.50-1.00".  At the moment it looks like the precipitation would fall mostly as rain which would be very bad news since there's still a ton of snow on the ground so any rain on top of the snow pack would just run off.  Note:  No need to panic just yet, the models aren't in the best of agreement for next week so this system could very well disappear in future model runs.




















*This next image is the 12z ECMWF (European model)  It's also valid for NEXT Wednesday AM April 3, 2013.  It also shows a weather system, but this model has 2 separate lows, one NW in Western Canada and the other over the Central Plains, so it's a little bit different than the 12z GFS.  For the record, the EURO usually outperforms the (American GFS model) in the long range.




















Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*Today is only the 9th day this month with a high temperature of at least 32F.  Last year there were 26 days at or above 32F.  In fact out of the last 5 March's, this one has had the fewest days with a maximum temperature at or above freezing.  Breaking down the numbers:  2008:  18 days.  2009:  18 days.  2010:  30 days.  2011:  18 days.  2012:  26 days.  2013:  9 days (thru the 25th)

Today's Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Skies varied between mostly sunny and mostly cloudy Today with highs in the 30s.  Winds were out of the north at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

A north-northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest Today per RAP model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery, it's quite the goofed up weather pattern as we have disturbances moving east-west in Canada, usually systems will track west to east.  Odd!  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM were right around -10C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 25th)

High pressure averaging 1030mb will build east out of the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast in the Northland Tonight with the potential for a few flurries.  Lows will be in the teens and lower 20s with pockets of single digits possible as well.  North or northwest winds are forecast at 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (March 26th)

High pressure brings mostly clear skies to our area this period.  Highs in the 20s and 30s with lows in the teens and lower 20s.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. 

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (March 27th-29th)

High temperatures will reach the 30s and even some 40s during this period which should result in at least a little bit of snow-melt across the Northland (shouldn't be much though)  Looks dry mid to late week as well.  Low temperatures Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(March 30th-April 3rd)

Still looking at a chance for some rain and or snow showers Easter weekend (30th-31st) as a cold front and area of low pressure approach the region from the NW, this system doesn't look that impressive, so precipitation that does fall should stay on the light side the way it looks now.  A more important weather system could take aim at the Upper Midwest sometime around April 2nd-3rd, this one could bring some significant rain or snow to the area depending on the track and strength, stay tuned.

Near to below average temperatures are forecast to persist through this period.  

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 32 to 37.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind northwest around 12 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  38
Low:   21

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:59 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   7:30 PM CDT

Tim

Sunday, March 24, 2013

A quiet weather week ahead; Warmest temps of the month (40s later this week?) Stormier weather 1st week of April?

/Issued 4:39 PM CDT, Sunday, March 24th, 2013/

High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

March 17-23, 2013

3/17:  23F/12 degrees below normal
3/18:  27F/8 degrees below normal
3/19:  22F/13 degrees below normal
3/20:  18F/18 degrees below normal
3/21:  30F/6 degrees below normal
3/22:  33F/4 degrees below normal
3/23:  36F/1 degree below normal

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

March 17-23, 2013

3/17:  -13F/31 degrees below normal
3/18:  15F/3 degrees below normal
3/19:  6F/13 degrees below normal
3/20:  3F/16 degrees below normal
3/21:  -2F/22 degrees below normal
3/22:  8F/12 degrees below normal
3/23:  6F/14 degrees below normal

Last week's precipitation total:  0.32"
Average:  0.35"
Departure:  -0.03"

*Temperature departure map for 3/17-3/23 2013.  Was it cold enough for ya last week?  Incredible temperature departures across the Upper Midwest.






















*Precipitation departure map for 3/17-3/23 2013.























-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 LRC scores for March 17-23, 2013
Duluth, Minnesota

Total snowfall:  2.5"
Actual:  5.2"
Error:  2.7"

Total precipitation:  0.60"
Actual:  0.32"
Error:  0.28"

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Weather Tidbits:

*As of March 23rd, the temperature deficit for March at Duluth, Minnesota was 6.2 degrees.  You have to go back to December 2008 to find a colder month than what is occurring this month (7.0 degrees below average in Dec. '08)  Next up is January 2009 at 5.1 degrees below average.  October 2009 was 4.5 degrees below average.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 996mb was over Central Kentucky with high pressure of 1032mb over the Northern Rockies late This Afternoon.  Certainly a lot more clouds in the Northland Today compared to Saturday and there's been some flurries and snow showers at times as well.  There was a brief flare up of heavier lake effect snow showers This Morning around the Twin Ports area, but little if any accumulation was reported.  Highs Today were in the middle to lower 30s with north or east winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

An upper level trough extends from the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the Central Plains per RAP model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from -10 to -12C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 24th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with flurries and a few snow showers.  Lows will be in the teens to lower 20s, but single digits are possible in Northern Minnesota.  North or east winds are expected at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night (March 25th)

High pressure builds into the Upper Midwest this period.  Partly cloudy skies are expected.  Highs Tomorrow in the 20s and 30s.  Lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s.  North or northwest winds are forecast at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (March 26th-28th)

Looks dry this period.  Highs in the 20s and 30s, but a few 40s can't be ruled out by Wednesday and Thursday.  Lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(March 29th-April 2nd)

Next weekend (March 30-31) could feature some showers of snow and rain as a disturbance approaches the region from the northwest.  The 1st week of April could turn stormier in the Upper Midwest and Plains as a shift in the weather pattern may take place at that time.  Something to watch here during the next several days.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries at times.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 32 to 37.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  38
Low:  21

Sunrise Monday:  7:01 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   7:29 PM CDT

Tim

Saturday, March 23, 2013

A few flurries possible late Tonight-Sunday; Possible pattern change 1st week of April?

/Issued 5:48 PM CDT, Saturday, March 23rd, 2013/

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Skies were partly to mostly cloudy Today with highs in the 30s.  Winds were out of the north or east at around 10 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

A broad upper trough covered the Rockies, Central Plains and Northern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery, seeing a SW flow develop out ahead of this trough over the Upper Midwest (this will only be temporary, however)  850mb temperatures as of 5 PM ranged from -8 to -10C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term, Extended, and Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(Tonight, March 23rd through April 2nd)

A relatively quiet weather pattern rolls on throughout the Northland.  No major storms in sight.  A few snow flurries can't be ruled out Tonight and Sunday, but no accumulations are expected.  Might begin to see the pattern shift on or a little after April 2nd, I'll discuss this more below.

-This map represents the 500mb height forecast for April 2, 2013 per 12z ECMWF ensemble model.  Notice the bulge in the green colors over the Northwest U.S. (this is a ridge)  It's possible this may be the start of a pattern change as we go through the 1st week of April.  What may happen is that ridge that is over the Pacific Northwest on April 2nd will eventually make it's way into Minnesota while colder air begins to drain down into the Western U.S., if this happens then the weather pattern may turn stormier over the Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes as we sit between colder air off to our west and a warmer airmass to our south.  This by no means is set in stone, but it's more of a heads up and just something to monitor for now.


















Temperature forecast for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin:

Tonight, Sunday Night and Monday Night:  Teens and 20s.
Sunday, Monday and Tuesday:  20s and 30s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few flurries possible after Midnight.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Considerable cloudiness.  A few flurries possible.  High 26 to 31.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 32 to 37.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  38
Low:  21

Sunrise Sunday:  7:03 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   7:27 PM CDT

Tim


Friday, March 22, 2013

A good weekend to enjoy the deep snow pack, don't forget the sunscreen.

/Issued 4:02 PM CDT, Friday, March 22nd, 2013/

-Minnesota snow depth map as of March 21, 2013.  (Source, MNDNR)

Still lots of snow on the ground across most of the Gopher state.  Duluth has about 18-20" on the ground.  Bigfork has close to 30".  International Falls has about 24".  Locations along the North Shore of Lake Superior have snow depths of 18-30".






















-Here's the snow depth ranking map for March 21, 2013.  (Source, MNDNR)

Yes, it's quite unusual to have this much snow on the ground in late March.  For example, the map above has Duluth with 18" of snow on the ground, looking at the snow depth ranking map you find Duluth sits in the 80-95 percentile range, meaning there's only been 5 to 20 other March 21 snow depths that were greater than or equal to 18".  Note:  This is based on 100 years of weather records.



























Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

You get sunshine in March and it feels pretty nice even though the actual temperature is still below average.  Highs Today were in the upper 20s to middle 30s, which is near normal to about 5 degrees colder than normal.  Winds were light and variable around 10 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

A very amplified pattern in place with 2 large troughs, one in the Western U.S., the other extending from Eastern Canada through the Great Lakes into the Northeast U.S.  A narrow ridge in between the 2 troughs extends from Manitoba to the Upper Midwest.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -8 to -10C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term, Extended and Long Range - Confidence:  High.

(Tonight, March 22nd through April 1st)

Overall it's a quiet pattern for the Northland.  No major storms anytime soon.  Might see the occasional snow flurry every now and then from this weekend through the middle of next week, but nothing that'll accumulate.  This is a good and bad weather pattern for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Good that were avoiding a large rain or snow storm, but bad that temperatures are running cooler than normal which will prolong the snow melt, yes there'll likely be at least a little bit of snow melt at times-especially when the sun is out, but overall I don't think will see much snow melt here in the Northland through next week.

Temperature forecast for NE Minnesota & NW Wisconsin:

Tonight:  Teens and 20s with some single digits in the traditional cold spots.
Saturday:  20s and 30s.
Saturday Night:  Teens and 20s.
Sunday:  20s and 30s.
Sunday Night:  Teens and 20s.
Monday:  20s and 30s.
Monday Night:  Teens and 20s.
Tuesday:  20s and 30s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind light and variable around 10 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible at times.  High 27 to 32.  Wind north around 12 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind north around 12 mph.

.Sunday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  High 26 to 31.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  37
Low:  20

Sunrise Saturday:  7:05 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   7:26 PM CDT

Tim


Thursday, March 21, 2013

10+ days of relatively quiet weather, enjoy; Stays chilly-no major warmup in sight.

/Issued 3:56 PM CDT, Thursday, March 21st, 2013/

*Brand new U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook was issued Today.  All of Minnesota can expect improving conditions in the ongoing drought through June 30th, 2013.  (Source, NOAA)


















Weather Tidbits:

-Climate Prediction Center issued it's April forecast Today.  Equal chance for Above, Below or Normal temperatures in Duluth with a 40% chance for above normal precipitation.  

-90 day outlook, runs from April through June calls for an equal chance for above, below or normal temperatures and precipitation in Duluth.

-No changes in this week's drought monitor in Minnesota, but there were some changes in Wisconsin with the Moderate drought shrinking in size; 48% this week vs. 60% last week. 

Low temperature report for March 21, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

International Falls, MN:  -16F
Brainerd, MN:  -11F
Bigfork, MN:  -15F
Longville, MN:  -13F
Pine River, MN:  -13F
Siren, WI:  -6F
Superior, WI:  -1F
Cass Lake, MN:  -12F
Northome, MN:  -14F

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast MN and Northwest WI

Sunny to partly cloudy skies across the Northland Today.  Still cold with highs in the 20s to around 30 degrees.  Winds were light and variable at around 10 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

Upper level troughs cover the Western U.S. and Northeast U.S. with an active Southern jet stretching from Southern California into the Southeast U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -8 to -14C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term, Extended and Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(Tonight, March 21st through March 31st)

Weather changes little for the next 10 days.  It stays chilly with below average temperatures.  No storms in sight, although there could be a few snow flurries at times this weekend and next week, these won't add up to anything though, just more of a reminder that it's still winter (yes I know technically it's spring, but we know better)

Temperature forecast:

Tonight:  Single digits and teens below to above zero.
Friday:  20s and 30s.
Friday Night:  Mainly in the teens.
Saturday:  20s and 30s.
Saturday Night:  Teens to around 20.
Sunday:  20s and 30s.
Sunday Night:  Teens to low 20s.
Monday:  20s and 30s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 0 to 5 below.  Wind variable under 10 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 27 to 32.  Wind north around 12 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind north around 10 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 30 to 35.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 15 to 20.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.   High 30 to 35.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  36
Low:  20

Sunrise Friday:  7:07 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   7:25 PM CDT

Tim

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

BRRR!! Happy 1st day of spring.

/Issued 3:49 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 20th, 2013/

*Here's the 6-10 day temperature outlook valid for March 26-30, 2013.  Incredibly high odds for below normal temperatures in much of the Central/Eastern U.S.  (Source, Climate Prediction Center)

























Note:  March 2013 has made it into the top 10 for snowiest March's at Duluth, Minnesota.  As of the 19th, the monthly snowfall total was at 25.5" which ties with 2007 for 10th place.  I don't see many opportunities for snow through the rest of the month, so it looks like will remain tied in the number 10 spot.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota:

-Thru March 19th, the average monthly temperature was at 18.5F which is 5.1 degrees colder than normal.

-It's pretty much a lock that March will finish with a below average temperature which means that February-March 2013 will be the 1st time with back to back below average temperature months since May-June 2011.

-So far this month, only 6 days with a high temperature of at least 32F with 4 days with a low temperature of 0F or colder.  The warmest high temperature so far in March has been 38F on the 14th and the 8th.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A very cold day in the Northland with high temperatures only in the middle teens to around 20 degrees which is 15-20+ degrees colder than average.  Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy with a few flurries.  Heavier lake effect snow showers occurred Today along the South Shore of Lake Superior from Bayfield to Iron County.  Winds Today were out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

Upper level troughs were in place over the Pacific Northwest and from the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes to Eastern Canada per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -16 to -18C in Minnesota. 

Note:  A winter storm warning continues until 7 PM CDT This Evening for Bayfield and Ashland County Wisconsin.  And for Iron County Wisconsin until Midnight CDT Tonight.  If you have travel plans in these areas make sure to exercise extreme caution as roads will be snow covered and slippery in spots.  There could be another 1-4" of snow This Evening before the setup for lake effect snow becomes less favorable.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term and Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Sunday (March 20th-24th)

Nothing much going on in our area through the weekend.  Expect partly to at times mostly cloudy skies with the occasional flurry every now and then, but overall it looks pretty dry.  Low temperatures Tonight and Thursday Night will range from the single digits above to teens below zero.  Highs on Thursday will mainly be in the 20s.  Highs Friday through Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night mainly in the teens.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(March 25th-30th)

Below average temperatures continue through this period with no storms in sight.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Very cold.  Low 0 to 5 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 22 to 27.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.  Wind northwest around 10 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 15 to 20.

.Sunday...  Flurries possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  36
Low:   19

Sunrise Thursday:  7:09 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   7:23 PM CDT

Tim

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Winter storm warning Tonight-Wed east of the Twin Ports; Hazardous wind chills Tonight. LRC scores for last week in this post.

/Issued 3:43 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 19th, 2013/

*Instead of melting the snow pack were adding to it across much of the Upper Midwest.  As of March 19, 2013:  85% of the Upper Midwest was covered by snow vs. just 2% at this time last year.












*This next image shows the snow water equivalent as of March 19, 2013.  There's a lot of water in the snow pack in much of Western-Northern Minnesota (as much as 2-3" in spots) This isn't good if you live in the Red River Valley or near any river in Minnesota for that matter.

This snow pack isn't going anywhere thru at least April 1st.  This is bad because eventually temperatures will warm up (possibly significantly) and this snow will melt.  The longer it stays cold (no melting) the worse it may be in terms of flooding as we head through April.  The ideal scenario is that we see a slow thaw, about a week or so of temperatures in the 40s, lows near freezing with no precipitation.  Getting that to happen is easier said than done.

The good news in the short term is that it doesn't look will be adding to the current snow pack anytime soon in most of Minnesota, the bad news is that temperatures will stay cold which means virtually no melting of the snow. 
















*WINTER STORM WARNING*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Location:  Bayfield, Ashland and Iron County Wisconsin including the cities of Port Wing...Washburn...Bayfield...Iron River...Mason...Drummond...Cable...Ashland...High Bridge...Clam Lake...Butternut...Upson...Hurley...and Gile.

Timing:  Until 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

Discussion:  Lake effect snow showers will continue through Wednesday Evening.  The snow showers could be heavy at times.  Northwest winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph Tonight and to around 25 mph on Wednesday will cause significant blowing and drifting snow.  Near whiteout conditions may occur at times Tonight and Tomorrow.  Roads will be snow covered and slippery.  Travel conditions will be difficult.

Total snowfall accumulations:  4-8" with locally higher amounts approaching 12".

This winter storm warning for heavy snow means that periods of heavy snow can be expected.  If you travel exercise extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle.  Be aware that you may become stranded and that it may take many hours for help to arrive.  

-Last week's temperature departure map.  Cold!






















-Last week's precipitation percent of mean.























High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

March 10-16, 2013

3/10:  33F/1 degree above normal
3/11:  28F/4 degrees below normal
3/12:  22F/11 degrees below normal
3/13:  32F/1 degree below normal
3/14:  38F/5 degrees above normal
3/15:  33F/1 degree below normal
3/16:  19F/15 degrees below normal

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

March 10-16, 2013

3/10:  23F/8 degrees above normal
3/11:  21F/5 degrees above normal
3/12:  15F/1 degree below normal
3/13:  3F/13 degrees below normal
3/14:  11F/6 degrees below normal
3/15:  17F/Normal
3/16:  1F/17 degrees below normal

Precipitation total for March 10-16, 2013:  0.19"
Normal:  0.32"
Departure:  -0.13"

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

***LRC verification for Duluth, Minnesota***

Snowfall forecast for March 10-16:  5.2"
Actual:  5.6"
Error:  0.4"

Precipitation forecast for March 10-16:  0.31"
Actual:  0.19"
Error:  0.12"

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Strong area of low pressure averaging 998mb /29.47"/ was over Eastern Ontario while a ridge of high pressure averaging 1024-1032mb /30.24"-30.47"/ stretched from the Northern Plains to the Central Plains as of 3 PM Today.  Is it cold enough for ya?  Despite some sun, high temperatures were only in the teens and 20s which is well below average for this time of year.  A brisk northwest wind at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph caused some blowing and drifting snow Today and also put an extra chill to an already cold day.  The cold temperatures and the NW wind coming off Lake Superior led to some lake effect snow Today, mainly in Ashland and Iron County with a few inches of accumulation reported in that area.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

Northwest flow was in place across the Upper Midwest as a large upper trough and mid/upper level low spins around to our east.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -10 to -18C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Wednesday Night (March 19th-20th)

High pressure will remain over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this period with low pressure centered east of Lake Superior.  A cold airmass will remain over our area with a northwest flow locked in place.  Low temperatures Tonight and Wednesday Night will range from around 10 above to 10 below zero with even colder temperatures possible for Wednesday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will be similar to Today with teens and 20s expected.  Northwest winds will continue at 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20-35 mph occurring Tonight, mainly near Lake Superior.  Note:  Wind chills Tonight and Wednesday Morning are forecast to range from 10 below to around 25 below in parts of the Northland.  Periods of lake effect snow along the South Shore (see winter storm warning statement above) and some flakes in the Arrowhead Tonight and Tomorrow.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (March 21st-23rd)

A quiet weather pattern is forecast through this period.  High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Thursday Night in the single digits and teens below to around 10 above zero.  Lows Friday Night in the single digits and teens.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(March 24th-29th)

A cold and dry end to March is looking likely for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Below normal temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy and cold.  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  Wind chills approaching 20 below at times.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 16 to 21.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Morning wind chills approaching 20 below.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Cold.  Low 0 to 5.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  35
Low:  19

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:11 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:22 PM CDT

Tim