Thursday, February 28, 2013

Crack open a beer or pop! The unofficial start to spring is just hours away!

/Issued 3:37 PM CST, Thursday, February 28th, 2013/

-Here's a look at the three month precipitation data (November 2012-January 2013)  Note all of Minnesota had near average precipitation during that 3 month period with Northeast Minnesota in the Abnormally Moist category.  It's been a weird winter with snowfall below average in Duluth, but precipitation has been above average, again you can thank the multiple rain events we had in December and January for why were running above average in the precipitation department.  (Souce, NOAA, NCDC)



















Well, the end of winter Meteorologically speaking is almost over, as I type this blog we are just T-8 hours away from kicking off Meteorological spring or the period March through May.

Weather Tidbits:

-Duluth's streak without any measurable precipitation ends at 4 consecutive days (February 24-27)  This ties the November 4 day dry streak which occurred on the 13th-16th.

Could it be? A month that finishes with a below average temperature at Duluth, Minnesota?  Going into Today, the temperature departure for February was at -0.6 degrees.  If we finish the month below average, then it will be only the 3rd time doing so in the past 21 months! June 2011, October 2012 and possibly February 2013?  Will know Tomorrow Morning.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1034mb was centered in Northern Ontario with a north/east wind occurring in our area Today.  Colder 850mb temperatures moved into the Northland Today which caused lake clouds and some light flurries earlier This Morning along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior, otherwise skies were partly to mostly cloudy Today with wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph.  High temperatures were cooler compared to previous days, but still right around average for the end of February with mid 20s to around 30 degrees.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

An upper trough continued to cover the Great Lakes, Eastern Canada and Northeast U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -8 to -10C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 28th)

Clear to partly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with strong high pressure to our north.  Lows will be in the single digits below to teens above zero with north or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (March 1st)

High pressure stays put to our north/northeast.  Dry this period with partly cloudy skies.  Highs Tomorrow will mainly be in the 20s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens below to single digits above zero.  North or east winds are forecast this period at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence: Medium.

Saturday through Monday (March 2nd-4th)

Dry Saturday and Sunday.  Flurries are a possibility Saturday Night as a weak disturbance moves southeast into the Upper Midwest.  Significant model differences arise for early next week.  The 00z and 12z CANADIAN (which recently had an upgrade) is quite snowy early next week, but the other models including the EUROPEAN and GFS (outside of about 4-5 ensembles) remain dry.  I'm thinking the drier solutions will verify, but since at least 1 model and a few of the ensembles show something different, the system for early next week will need to be monitored for possible shifts in the storm track.  High temperatures in the 20s and 30s through this period with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the single digits below to teens above zero.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(March 5th-10th)

Looks mainly dry next Tuesday and Wednesday (5th-6th) Unless the CANADIAN model verifies, if that happens then early next week will be rather snowy in the Northland.  Stay tuned!  A possible system is looming for the 7th-9th, this one if it hits us could bring some snow or a mix of precipitation to the area.  Near to below average temperatures through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 8 to 13.  Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 22 to 27.  Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 7 to 12.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 27 to 32.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  28
Low:  11

Sunrise Friday:  6:48 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   5:55 PM CST

Tim

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Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Anyone else think that Today feels like a Thursday or is it just me? Oh yeah the weather; Quiet; And the LRC forecast for March.

/Issued 3:53 PM CST, Wednesday, February 27th, 2013/

*7 day precipitation forecast, valid through Wednesday, March 6, 2013.  A system early next week could bring some accumulating snow or mixed precipitation to parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  (Source, HPC)


















Weather Tidbits:

-Duluth, Minnesota has experienced 3 consecutive days without any measurable precipitation (February 24-26)  Gotta go back to mid-November to find a longer streak than this one.  4 days (November 13-16)

-LRC forecast for Duluth, MN for March 2013:  

*15 days with snow (0.1" or greater) 
*12.2" of total snowfall which is 1.0" below average. 
*Mean temperature of 27.7F which is 1.8 degrees warmer than normal. 
*20 days with a high temperature of at least 32F. 
*1 day with a high temperature of at least 50F.

-LRC scorecard for February.  Note:  It's done quite well this month. 
*Total snowfall:  18.2"; Actual 19.1". 
*Days with snow:  11; Actual 15.

Note:   More stats will be included after Tomorrow since there is 1 more day left in February.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1002mb was over Southern Michigan late This Afternoon with high pressure of 1032mb centered in Western Manitoba.  The coolest temperatures (still above average for late February) were found in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s.  The warmest temperatures covered Western-Northwest parts of our area with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s.  Skies ranged from mostly cloudy to mostly sunny and winds were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Analysis

A northeast flow aloft was found over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Today as a large upper trough covers the region per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -2 to -6C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 27th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with some flurries or snow showers possible in Northwest Wisconsin but little if any accumulation is expected.  Lows will be in the single digits to around 20 degrees with north or east winds at 5 to 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (February 28th)

The month of February ends on a dry note with seasonable temperatures.  Expect 20s and 30s for daytime highs with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected.  Winds will be out of the north or east at 5 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (March 1st-3rd)

Friday and Sunday are looking dry at this time, but Saturday could bring with it a few snow flurries as a weak disturbance passes through the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees, the warmer days look to be Saturday and Sunday.  Lows will be in the single digits below to around 10 above zero Friday Night and Saturday Night.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(March 4th-9th)

Low pressure is forecast to move east-southeast through the Northern and Central Plains early next week, this system should bring some snow to areas especially west/south of the Northland for next Monday-Tuesday (4th and 5th)  It's still possible that a minor snow event will extend northeast into parts of our area early next week,  but the bigger snows are targeting Western/Southern Minnesota.  There could be another system sometime between the 7th-9th, this one could bring some snow or perhaps a mix of precipitation to the area. 

Overall the weather pattern looks to become a bit more active for next week with a few storm systems to keep an eye on, but like always it'll depend on the track that these systems take as to whether or not we see any precipitation here in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Temperatures through this period are expected to be near to below seasonal averages.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 26 to 31.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 22 to 27.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 7 to 12.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 27 to 32.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  28
Low:  11

Sunrise Thursday:  6:50 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   5:53 PM CST

Tim

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Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Dry; No weather is good weather-or something like that.

/Issued 3:49 PM CST, Tuesday, February 26th, 2013/

A major winter storm affected parts of the Southern and Central Plains during the last 24 hours.  Here are a few selected snowfall storm totals from February 25-26, 2013 per HPC.

Follet, Texas:  21.0"
Fort Supply, Oklahoma:  18.0"
Near Amarillo, Texas:  17.0"
Alva, Oklahoma:  17.0"
Woodward, Oklahoma:  15.0"
Pampa, Texas:  15.0"
Warrensburg, Missouri:  14.0"
Carbondale, Kansas:  10.0"
Centerville, Iowa:  8.5"
Mount Sterling, Illinois:  7.6"
Galesburg, Illinois:  7.0"

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Temperatures varied considerably across Minnesota Today as a goofy weather pattern continues for yet another day.  High temperatures made it into the 40s from Hibbing and Bigfork, north to the Ontario border with 30s in the rest of our area while 20s were common in Western and Southwest Minnesota.  Winds have finally increased a bit This Afternoon which is mixing the atmosphere, this is something we haven't seen much of the past few days, thus all the haze in the air.  Dense fog was also a major problem in Western-Southern parts of our area last night and This Morning, but the fog did burn off This Afternoon.  Winds Today were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

A strong upper level low/trough with height falls of 90-180 meters continues to lift slowly toward the northeast out of Missouri per water vapor satellite imagery.  Were actually seeing an easterly H5 flow in Minnesota Today due to the upper trough to our SE and an upper ridge just off to our east.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -4 to -6C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 26th)

The biggest forecast challenge lately has been the temperatures.  Above model guidance during the day for most areas, and below model guidance at night...That seems to be the trend as of late.  This weather pattern sorta reminds me of Indian Summer (winter version) Hazy skies, light winds, and fairly large temperature swings from the low to the high.

Oh yeah, getting back to Tonight's weather:  Surface low of 996mb in Southern Illinois late This Afternoon will churn slowly N-NE during the night.  Snow with this storm will remain well southeast of the Northland.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast in our area Tonight with patchy fog possible once again.  Lows will be in the single digits and teens with north or east winds at 5 to around 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (February 27th)

Stays dry this period under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s to lower 40s with minimum temperatures Wednesday Night in the single digits and teens.  North or east winds are forecast at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (February 28th-March 2nd)

Late week also looks mainly dry.  High temperatures Thursday through Saturday in the 20s with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the single digits and teens.

Note:  There is a small chance for lake effect snow showers late Wednesday Night into Thursday along the South Shore of Lake Superior with NNE winds in place, but temperatures are a little too warm for any significant accumulations.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(March 3rd-8th)

We might as well keep the dry streak going.  Not much change is expected through this period.  There is a weather system to monitor during the early-mid part of next week (4th-6th) But the trends are for it to sail west/south of the Northland and that's where the bulk of the snow looks to fall early next week, but a minor snow event may clip some parts of NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin between the 4th-6th.  Near to below average temperatures during this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  5th day in a row at or above freezing.  Partly cloudy.  High 32 to 37.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 27 to 32.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  28
Low:  10

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:52 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   5:52 PM CST

Tim

 

Monday, February 25, 2013

Quiet

/Issued 2:41 PM CST, Monday, February 25th, 2013/

Weather Tidbits:

*Today marks the 4th day this month and the 3rd day in a row with a high temperature of at least 32F at Duluth, Minnesota.  Last February had 15 days at or above 32F.

High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

February 17-23, 2013:

2/17:  25F/Normal
2/18:  27F/2 degrees above normal
2/19:  7F/18 degrees below normal
2/20:  20F/6 degrees below normal
2/21:  24F/2 degrees below normal
2/22:  27F/1 degrees above normal
2/23:  34F/7 degrees above normal

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

February 17-23, 2013:

2/17:  -1F/8 degrees below normal
2/18:  7F/Normal
2/19:  -6F/13 degrees below normal
2/20:  -8F/16 degrees below normal
2/21:  -7F/15 degrees below normal
2/22:  23F/14 degrees above normal
2/23:  21F/12 degrees above normal

Precipitation total for 2/17-2/23/13:  0.39"
Normal:  0.23"
Departure:  +0.16"

LRC snowfall forecast for 2/17-2/23/13:  7.9"
Actual:  6.1"
Error:  1.8"

LRC snowfall forecast for 2/24-3/2/13:  0.0"

Note:  With March fast approaching most of us start looking forward to warmer temperatures, lets take a look back to March 2012 to see when our 1st 50, 60 and 70 degree high temperature occurred at Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

-1st 50 degree high temperature:  March 10th
-1st 60 degree high temperature:  March 14th
-1st 70 degree high temperature:  March 17th

Now for the bad news, I feel fairly confident that were going to be waiting longer this year compared to last year for the first 50s, 60s and 70s.  If you prefer the warm temps, just be patient, they will arrive eventually.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

There's a mammoth storm hitting parts of the Central-Southern U.S. Today.  Deep low pressure of 996mb was centered in extreme Northeast Texas late This Afternoon with a raging blizzard occurring from the Texas Panhandle, northeast through parts of Western Oklahoma into Southern Kansas while severe thunderstorms are erupting in the storm's warm sector from Arkansas and Louisiana to Mississippi.  No weather worries here in the Northland Today, just another calm and peaceful late winter day.  Skies were mostly cloudy to partly cloudy with highs in the 30s along with light winds.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

Two strong systems in the water vapor Today.  The 1st one is moving E/NE through Texas with height falls of 120-210 meters.  The 2nd system is dropping southeast through the Pacific Northwest with height falls of 60-120 meters.  The Upper Midwest sits in between these 2 weather systems with a weak NW flow in place.  850mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from -4 to -6C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 25th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur with areas of freezing fog.  Lows will be in the single digits to around 20 degrees with light winds.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (February 26th)

More dry skies this period as weak high pressure remains over the Upper Midwest while strong low pressure of around 988-990mb lifts northeast out of Northern Texas, snow with this storm stays well to our southeast.  Patchy Morning fog will give way to partly to mostly cloudy skies throughout the Northland with highs Tomorrow mainly in the 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the east or north at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (February 27th-March 1st)

Not much change in the weather for mid to late week.  A northerly flow will be found across the Upper Midwest with high pressure to our north which may help to turn surface winds more to the NE later this week.  Temperatures aloft look too warm for much in the way of lake effect snow for the South Shore and North Shore of Lake Superior, but I suppose a few flakes could develop Thursday and Friday since the 850mb temperatures will be cooling a bit compared to what will see through midweek.  High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s through this period with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the teens.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(March 2nd-7th)

Near to below average temperatures are expected this period.  Dry this weekend, and then there could be a minor snow event taking aim at Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin sometime between the 4th-6th, plenty of time to monitor the model trends with that possible system.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind light and variable around 10 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 27 to 32.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  27
Low:  10

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:53 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   5:50 PM CST

Tim

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Saturday, February 23, 2013

It's a stagnant weather pattern; Possible fog at night; Mild temperatures during the day.

/Issued 3:44 PM CST, Saturday, February 23rd, 2013/

-Snowfall map from Friday, February 22, 2013.  A decent snow event from the Twin Ports to Hinckley, east into all of Northwest Wisconsin.  A minimum of 3" and a maximum of 8-9" within this corridor.


















Duluth, Minnesota snow stats (Airport location)

February snowfall total (thru the 23rd)  19.3"
Departure: Around 10" above normal
Last February (thru the 23rd)  6.0"
+13.3" more snow this February vs. last February.

Winter snowfall total (Dec-Feb 23)  41.7"
Departure: Around 4" below normal
Last winter (Dec-Feb 23)  19.2"
+22.5" more snow this winter vs. last winter.

Annual snowfall total (Since July 1)  53.0"
Departure:  Around 9" below normal
Last year's annual snowfall total (thru the 23rd of Feb)  22.0"
+31" more snow this year's annual total vs. last year's.

Weather Tidbits:

*22/23 or all but 1 day so far in February has had at least a trace of snow recorded at Duluth, MN.

*Friday marked the 5th this month with a 1.0" or greater snowfall event at Duluth, MN.

*Average temperature for February (ending on the 22nd)  at Duluth, MN:  11.8F which is 2.2 degrees below normal.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High temperatures were in the 20s and 30s Today with mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies.  Low pressure of 1008mb over Eastern Ontario did produce a few more flurries and snow showers Today, mainly in parts of Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds Today were out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A strong upper trough with height falls of up to 120-150 meters was digging S/SE through the Central-Southern Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  Another upper level low/trough over the Great Lakes continued to churn ever so slowly toward the east Today.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -6 to -10C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 23rd)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue with the possibility for a few flurries.  Lows will be in the teens with some spots possibly dropping into the single digits if skies can clear out for a few hours.  Winds will be light and variable around 10 mph.  Note:  Patchy fog could develop Tonight, drivers beware of this possibility.

Sunday and Sunday Night (February 24th)

High temps Tomorrow will be similar to what we had Today, so expect 20s and 30s once again across the Northland with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens to around 20 degrees.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with winds out of the south or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (February 25th-27th)

A major winter storm is forecast to affect the Central Plains and Southern Great Lakes during this period as deep low pressure moves NE out of Northern Texas to Southern Michigan during this period.  Heavy snow associated with that storm will stay well southeast of our area next week.  There could be some flurries or snow showers at times through this period in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but accumulations if any will be very light.  Highs in the 20s and 30s Monday through Wednesday with lows in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(February 28th-March 5th)

Lake effect snow showers could increase late next week as cooler air moves into the Upper Midwest along with a favorable NNW wind crossing Lake Superior, so the South Shore may see some accumulating lake effect snow next Thursday/Friday (28th-1st)  Outside of that, nothing much going on in our area for the 1st couple days of March.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Patchy fog possible.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind light and variable around 10 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 30 to 35.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 28 to 33.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 15 to 20.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 28 to 33.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  27
Low:    9

Sunrise Sunday:  6:57 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   5:47 PM CST

Tim




Friday, February 22, 2013

Snowfall report in this post. A little more snow Tonight; Shaping up to be a nice weekend-get outside and enjoy the snow while you can.

/Issued 3:35 PM CST, Friday, February 22nd, 2013/

*Preliminary snowfall report for February 22, 2013*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota


2 W of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  8.0"
Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield County)  7.0"
High Bridge, WI (Ashland County)  7.0"
Webb Lake, WI (Burnett County)  6.0"
Glidden, WI (Ashland County)  6.0"
8 ESE of Pine City, MN (Pine County)  5.9"
Maple, WI (Douglas County)  5.0"
4 S of Bruno, MN (Pine County)  4.5"
Port Wing, WI (Bayfield County)  4.0"
Holyoke, MN (Carlton County)  3.5"
2 SW of Hinckley, MN (Pine County)  3.5"
Mouth of Brule, WI (Douglas County)  3.0"
Seeley, WI (Sawyer County)  3.0"
5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  2.0" official NWS total thru Noon

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1010mb has moved into Southeast Wisconsin as of 3 PM.  This system brought widespread light to moderate snow to Northwest Wisconsin, far Eastern Minnesota, the Twin Ports, and along parts of the North Shore of Lake Superior Today.  The heaviest snowfall accumulations were found in Northwest Wisconsin, mainly over Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, Bayfield and Ashland Counties where a persistent band of moderate snow setup for several hours Today with snowfall rates close to an inch an hour.  Meanwhile, farther NW little if any snow occurred Today, but there were reports of some patchy light freezing drizzle earlier in the day.  Skies were partly sunny to overcast with high temperatures in the middle 20s to lower 30s.  Winds were out of the east or north at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph near Lake Superior where some blowing and drifting snow occurred.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

A strong H5 low with height falls of 60-90 meters was lifting northeast through the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -8 to -12C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 22nd)

Low pressure over Southeast Wisconsin will move into Central Upper Michigan by daybreak while an upper level low continues to churn slowly northeast toward Lake Superior.  Mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lingering light snow and flurries.  Additional snowfall accumulations should be less than 2" in far Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows will be in the teens to around 20 degrees with single digits possible in far Northern Minnesota.  North or east winds are expected at 5 to 15 mph.

-Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect until 6 AM Saturday for Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.  Total snowfall accumulations will range from 3-8".  Note:  The bulk of the snow has already fallen, but as winds turn to the north later Tonight, some lake effect snow showers could develop and affect the South Shore of Lake Superior with an additional 1-3" of accumulation possible Overnight.

-Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM Tonight for Southern Lake, Southern Saint Louis, Carlton and Pine Counties in Minnesota, and for Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer and Price Counties in Wisconsin.  Total snowfall accumulations will range from 2-8".  Note:  The bulk of the snow has already fallen with little to no additional accumulation expected.

-Roads in the advisory area will continue to be snow covered and slippery so use caution if you have travel plans and remember to allow extra time to reach your destination.

Saturday and Saturday Night (February 23rd)

Surface and upper level low will move little as they will be centered east of the Northland this period.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with flurries or light snow showers possible at times on Saturday from Northeast Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin, little if any accumulation is expected though.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens.  North or northwest winds are forecast at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Sunday through Tuesday (February 24th-26th)

Looking mainly dry in our area for Sunday and Monday with flurries or a little bit of light snow possibly returning next Tuesday.  Another winter storm is forecast to affect portions of the Central Plains and Southern Great Lakes region between Sunday-Tuesday, right now the forecast models take this system well southeast of our area which means little to no snow for us.  High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s from Sunday through Tuesday with lows mainly in the teens.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(February 27th-March 4th)

Kind of a mellow weather pattern for our area as we close out the month of February and move into the month of March, so yes for those keeping track March comes in like a lamb.  We could get some snow showers or flurries during the middle/end of next week (February 27-March 1) due to a broad upper level trough which will cover the Eastern half of the U.S., but no organized storms are expected for our area.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast during this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST TONIGHT*

.Tonight...  Occasional light snow and flurries.  Additional accumulations of 1" or less.  Storm totals of 2-3".  Mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph, becoming north at 5 to 15 mph around Midnight.

.Saturday...  Flurries possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 26 to 31.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind northwest around 10 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.   High 27 to 32.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.   High 28 to 33.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 27 to 32.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  26
Low:    9

Sunrise Saturday:  6:59 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   5:46 PM CST

Tim

  



 
 

Thursday, February 21, 2013

Winter Weather Advisory for Duluth 4am Friday-10pm Friday; Snow arrives Friday AM, tapers off Friday Night.

/Issued 4:00 PM CST, Thursday, February 21st, 2013/

*SREF model snowfall forecast for Friday.  This model shows about 2-5" of snow, heaviest totals in Northwest Wisconsin.  Amounts taper off to a dusting or less for International Falls, Bigfork, Cass Lake and into the Arrowhead of Minnesota.


















Weather Tidbits:

-As expected, the consecutive days streak with at least a trace of precipitation came to an end at both Duluth and International Falls on Wednesday, February 20, 2013.  Duluth's streak ended at 24 days in a row (January 27-February 19)  International Falls streak ended at 41 days (January 11-February 19)

-February 20, 2013 was the 1st time since Janaury 4, 2013 with no precipitation at International Falls.

-27 days so far this winter with a low temperature of 0F or colder at Duluth, Minnesota.  Last winter we had a grand total of 14 days.  (Dec-Feb period)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

What happened?  The forecast called for bright sunny skies in Duluth Today, it's been generally overcast most of the day and there's also been some light snow showers and flurries.  Blame the lake (easy way out) But really that is the truth.  Winds swung around to the east Today which even with lots of dry air in place didn't matter much, as a result we saw lake clouds/flurries around Lake Superior.  Away from the big lake, skies were generally sunny Today.  High temperatures were in the teens and 20s with east or northeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

A vigorous storm with 90-150 meter height falls is lifting northeast across the Central Plains Today per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  Other disturbances covered New England while another one dives SE into Arizona.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -8 to -10C in Minnesota.

*Minnesota snow depth map as of February 21, 2013.  Still seeing a nice snow pack in Northern Minnesota with amounts of 12-24".  Far Southern Minnesota still has no snow on the ground, but that will change later Tonight and on Friday.





















Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 21st)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with light snow and flurries near Lake Superior and also developing later Tonight in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Low temperatures will be in the single digits and teens, but some cities in the Arrowhead, Iron Range and Borderland could drop below zero.  Winds will be out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Friday and Friday Night (February 22nd)

Low pressure which was over Northeast Oklahoma late This Afternoon is forecast to reach Western Illinois Friday Morning, and will then move out into Lake Michigan Friday Night.

Accumulating snow will occur in Eastern Minnesota, Northwest Wisconsin, and along the North Shore of Lake Superior as this low moves northeast out of Missouri during the next 24 hours.  This will not be a huge snowstorm for the Northland, but enough snow could fall to cause some travel difficulties Tomorrow so use caution if you have travel plans around Lake Superior, Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

The snow should be tapering off to snow showers and flurries Friday Night.

Mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with highs Tomorrow in the teens and 20s with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens to around 20 degrees.  Winds will be out of the east or north at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts on Friday near Lake Superior.

*HPC continues to have far Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin in a Slight Risk for snowfall totals to reach or exceed 4" on Friday.
















Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

Saturday through Monday (February 23rd-25th)

Low pressure sorta stalls out over Upper Michigan/Central-Eastern Lake Superior on Saturday, this could keep some flurries and light snow showers going most of the day in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin but no real accumulation is expected on Saturday.  Looks like will dry out then Saturday Night into Monday.  Another storm system will be taking shape over the Rockies, Southern/Central Plains between Sunday-Monday but it doesn't look like will get any snow from that developing storm.

High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s from Saturday through Monday with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night mainly in the teens.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(February 26th-March 3rd)

Next week's storm continues to trend farther southeast in Today's model guidance, right now it doesn't look like this system will have any impact on the Northland's weather early next week (February 26th-27th)  We could however be affected by a Northern piece of energy and this combined with a broad upper level trough might be enough to squeeze out a little bit of snow during the early to middle part of next week.  After this the pattern becomes very amplified/slow moving/blocking.  A deep trough and a NNW flow is forecast to cover the Central-Eastern U.S. while a warm ridge develops over the Western U.S. from 2/28-3/3.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

Time to look ahead!

March 2013 climate outlook:  Equal chance for above normal, below normal, or normal temperatures in Northern Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin per Climate Prediction Center.




















*March 2013 precipitation outlook.  Above normal precipitation is forecast in all of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.






















5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 4 AM Friday until 10 PM Friday*

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy with flurries and light snow showers at times, little to no accumulation.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Friday...  Breezy with snow.  High 23 to 28.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Friday Night...  Lingering light snow and flurries.  Total snowfall accumulations of 2-4".  Mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind becoming north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 26 to 31.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  26
Low:    8

Sunrise Friday:  7:01 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   5:44 PM CST

Tim

-Winter Weather Advisory issued for parts of the Northland; Future radar/timing of when the snow begins.

/Issued 3:39 PM CST, Thursday, February 21st, 2013/

*Future radar for 6 AM Friday per 18z HIRES model.  Snow should be spreading into Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin between 4-6 AM Tomorrow Morning.  Could be some light snow in the Twin Ports at 6 AM Friday.




















*Here's what the radar should look like at 9 AM Friday.  Light to moderate snow from the Twin Ports, south through Eastern Minnesota into much of Northern Wisconsin per 18z HIRES model.




















*And at 3 PM Friday there should still be some snow falling around Lake Superior, far Eastern Minnesota and into much of Northern Wisconsin per 18z HIRES model.

Note:  When looking at these maps, the light and dark blue colors represent generally light snow.  Green colors depict heavier snowfall.

















Winter weather headline information per National Weather Service Duluth, MN.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Location:  Far Eastern Minnesota, the North Shore of Lake Superior and parts of Northwest Wisconsin including the Counties of:

Pine MN
Carlton MN
Southern St. Louis MN
Southern Lake MN
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI

Some cities included in the advisory:

Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Wright MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Danbury WI...Spooner WI...Shell Lake WI...Minong WI...Hayward WI...Exeland WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Fifield WI.

Timing:  4 AM CST Friday until 10 PM CST Friday.

Discussion:  Light to moderate snowfall spreading north into Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin late Tonight into Friday Morning.  The snow will continue during the day Friday before tapering off Friday Night.  Easterly wind coming off Lake Superior may result in some heavier lake enhanced snowfall on Friday along the North Shore of Lake Superior from Duluth to Two Harbors to Silver Bay.

Impacts:  Roads will become snow covered and slippery on Friday.  Use caution if you have travel plans and be sure to allow extra time to reach your destination.  Visibilities could drop to a mile or less at times due to the falling snow.

Total snowfall accumulations:  2-5".

===============================================================

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Location:  Parts of Northwest Wisconsin including the Counties of:

Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI

Some cities included in the advisory:

Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Washburn WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Gile WI...and Upson WI.

Timing:  6 AM CST Friday until 6 AM CST Saturday.

Discussion:  Light to moderate snow begins Friday Morning with snow continuing through Friday Evening before transitioning to snow showers late Friday Night.

Impacts:  Roads will become snow covered and slippery on Friday.  Use caution if you have travel plans and be sure to allow extra time to reach your destination.  Visibilities could drop to a mile or less at times due to the falling snow.

Total snowfall accumulations:  2-5".

================================================================

Tim

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Clear/calm/cold Tonight; Sunshine and a smidge warmer on Thursday; Little bit of snow on Friday.

/Issued 3:24 PM CST, Wednesday, February 20th, 2013/

-Surface map for Friday Morning, February 22, 2013 per 12z ECMWF ensemble model.  The pressure gradient (black lines in the map below) should tighten up a bit late this week between the surface low in Northeast Missouri and an area of high pressure over Hudson Bay.  Could see wind gusts out of the ENE of 20-25 mph, especially near Lake Superior from Thursday Night into Friday.  That low in Missouri could also bring a bit of snow to portions of the Northland on Friday, more info. on that can be found below.

















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Temperatures warmed up a little bit Today with highs mainly in the teens.  Lots of sunshine Today except in parts of Northwest Wisconsin where skies were mostly cloudy.  Winds were light and out of the north or south at 5 to 10 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

An upper level ridge has moved into the Upper Midwest while strong low pressure systems covered the Southwest U.S. and Northeast U.S./Eastern Canada.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -8 to -14C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 20th)

Clear skies and light winds with strong high pressure off to our northwest will result in another night of very cold temperatures, but with much less wind compared to what we've dealt with the past two nights.  Lows will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with variable winds of 10 mph or less.

Thursday and Thursday Night (February 21st)

Strong high pressure stays to our north while deep low pressure moves into the Southcentral Plains.  Snow associated with that system stays well southwest of the Northland on Thursday, but light snow and flurries may begin to affect Southern parts of our area late Thursday Night, generally from Pine City and Hinckley, east toward the Hayward Lakes.  Stays dry in Northern Minnesota Tomorrow Night.  Sunshine Tomorrow gives way to increasing cloudiness from south to north Tomorrow Night.  Highs will be in the teens and 20s with lows mainly in the single digits and teens although some Northern Minnesota towns could drop into the single digits below zero.  Winds will be out of the east at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (February 22nd-24th)

Parts our area are in line to receive a little bit of snow on Friday as a weakening area of low pressure tracks from Central Missouri to Northeastern Illinois and then this weak system heads into Central Upper Michigan by Saturday Morning. 

The powerful Ontario high should be too much to overcome if you live in Northern Minnesota~these areas should remain dry late this week, this would include the Iron Range and Borderland areas.  Farther south/east, the atmosphere is forecast to juice up (slowly) and this should lead to some accumulating snow on Friday from Eastern Minnesota and the North Shore of Lake Superior into all of Northwest Wisconsin, the snow will then taper off to flurries and snow showers Friday Night and Saturday.  Looks like about 1-3" of snow (although 3" may be pushing it just a bit) in Northeast and Eastern Minnesota and all of Northwest Wisconsin on Friday.

The good news is that temperatures will modify, that's usually how it works, we get a little snow and it warms up, go figure.  Highs will mainly be in the 20s Friday through Sunday with lows in the single digits and teens.

-HPC continues to show a Slight Risk for at least 4" of snow on Friday in all of Northwest Wisconsin and in Eastern Minnesota, including the Twin Ports and the North Shore.

















Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(February 25th-March 2nd)

The 2nd system which the models have been showing for days now has trended farther SE for early next week, probably a hit and a miss for the Northland based on the model guidance Today, but with it being  close to a week away I would expect the models to waffle around a little more on the timing and track of this potential system.

So for now I'll keep the mention of snow in the forecast for early next week (February 25-27) Otherwise the rest of this period looks kinda mellow.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

-Surface map for next Tuesday, February 26, 2013 per 12z ECMWF ensemble model.  Surface low is forecast to be really close to Chicago, Illinois next Tuesday Morning, usually this is too far southeast to give our local area a lot of snow.  Gotta watch the trends in the next 4-5 days, might shift more NW, or go even further SE.

















5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Clear.  Cold.  Low  1 below to 6 below.  Wind light and variable around 10 mph.

.Thursday...  Mostly sunny.  High 16 to 21.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Low 8 to 13.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Snow possible with light accumulations.  Mostly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

.Friday Night...  Light snow or flurries possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 22 to 27.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  26
Low:    8

Sunrise Thursday:  7:02 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   5:43 PM CST

Tim


Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Bundle up! Another night in the freezer; Wind Chill Advisory for the entire Northland; Recap of last night's wind storm; A few inches of snow on Friday?

/Issued 3:21 PM CST, Tuesday, February 19th, 2013/

*Storm track forecast per HPC.  Note the weakening in the pressure, going from 996mb Tomorrow Evening to 1008mb by Friday Morning as the surface low reaches Northeast Missouri.  This storm weakens because of a large area of high pressure/ridge which will cover Central-Eastern Canada later this week.  The biggest snow totals (10-20") still look like they will fall in Nebraska, Iowa, and parts of South Dakota and Kansas.  Some snow will occur in Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday-Friday but amounts won't be as significant this far north.

















Strong winds buffeted the North Shore of Lake Superior Monday Night.

Here's a few of the peak wind gusts from February 18-19, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

The Bay of Grand Marais:  63 mph  (offshore reporting station)
Silver Bay:  56 mph (offshore reporting station)
Cloquet:  44 mph
Grand Marais Airport:  40 mph
Duluth:  40 mph
Two Harbors:  37 mph
Sky Harbor:  36 mph

*Record Event*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

A record 24 hour snowfall total of 6.4" at International Falls, Minnesota on February 18, 2013.  The previous record was 5.8" set in 1992.

A record 24 hour precipitation of 0.41" was tied at International Falls, Minnesota on February 18, 2013.  The previous record was set in 1992.

Let's take a look at how International Falls is doing in terms of precip and snowfall this winter.

Note:  This winter has been very good up in I'Falls.

February snowfall total (ending on the 18th)  20.8"
Departure:  +13.9"

Winter 2012-13 snowfall total (December 1-February 18)  59.4"
Departure:  +22.5"
Last winter:  20.9"

Annual snowfall total (July 1-February 18)  70.3"
Departure:  +17.4" 
Last year:  33.2"

February precipitation total (ending on the 18th)  1.50"
Departure:  +1.17"

Winter precipitation total (December 1-February 18)  4.79"
Departure:  +3.03"

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Deep low pressure of 992mb has moved into Eastern Ontario late This Afternoon with arctic high pressure of 1040mb centered in Central Manitoba.  A very cold February day with highs only in the single digits to around 10 above.  Skies were mostly sunny to mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers, heavy at times affecting the South Shore of Lake Superior.  Winds Today were out of the north or west at 10 to 20 mph but gusts of up to 35-40 mph continued This Afternoon in the Arrowhead.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

2 powerful systems in the U.S. Today.  The first one is lifting E/NE through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Eastern Canada with height falls of 60-180 meters per RAP model analysis.  The 2nd system (much larger than the 1st) is digging south/east into the Western U.S. with height falls of 60-120 meters.  In between these storms was an upper level ridge which covered the Western High Plains and Northern Plains Today.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -14 to -20C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 19th)

A bitterly cold airmass will cover the Northland Tonight as strong high pressure remains off to our northwest.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the teens, 20s, and 30s below zero.  North or northwest winds are forecast at 5 to 15 mph with gusts of 20-40 mph continuing along the North Shore of Lake Superior, especially before Midnight.  Wind chill temperatures will drop to 20 below to 40 below during the night.

=====================================================================

-Wind Chill Advisory is in effect for all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from mid-Evening through 9 AM Wednesday.  Wind chills of 20 below to 40 below with the lowest values centered in Northern and Northeastern Minnesota.  If you plan to be outdoors make sure you wear a hat and gloves.  Keep in mind that hypothermia can occur under these conditions if precautions are not taken.

-Winter Storm Warning continues until Midnight Tonight for Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Hurley, Gile, and Upson.  Storm total accumulations of 6-12" are expected.

-Winter Weather Advisory continues until 6 PM This Evening for Bayfield and Ashland Counties in Northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Port Wing, Cornucopia, Bayfield, Washburn, Ashland, Butternut, and High Bridge.  Storm total accumulations will range from 3-8".

=====================================================================

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (February 20th)

High pressure will be centered to our north during this period, sunny to partly cloudy skies are forecast with highs in the single digits and teens with lows ranging from around 5 above to 20 below.  Winds will be out of the north, northwest, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

Thursday through Saturday (February 21st-23rd)

Should stay dry on Thursday with strong high pressure to our north/northeast while a major winter storm hammers parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and Kansas.  What's left of this system will move northeast out of the Southcentral Plains late this week and is forecast to reach Lake Michigan on Saturday.  The heaviest snow stays south of the Northland with this late week storm, but it looks like will see at least a little bit of snow in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Friday Morning into early Saturday.  Note:  It's still a little early to forecast specific amounts, but at the moment I'm leaning toward a 1-3" snow event in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin including the Twin Ports and North Shore where an east wind could lead to some lake effect/enhanced snow on Friday.  Flurries could linger into Saturday as this weakening storm meanders over the Western Great Lakes.

High temperatures will be in the teens and 20s Thursday and Friday and mainly in the 20s on Saturday.  Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the single digits and teens.

*A slight to moderate risk for snow totals to reach at least 4" on Friday in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  (Source, HPC)

















Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(February 24th-March 1st)

There's one more system that continues to show up in the computer models for early next week.  The exact track, strength, and timing is far from certain at this point, but low pressure could lift northeast out of the Central Plains and into the Central Great Lakes sometime between the 24th-26th.  Snow is possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin depending on the track this potential storm takes late this weekend/early next week.  After early next week it looks like we may get into a quieter weather pattern as we start the month of March, the flow aloft actually looks very amplified/blocky in the U.S., something we haven't seen much of this winter.

Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

*Surface map for next Monday, February 25th, 2013.  Low pressure in Southern Kansas, which is slower than what the HPC was showing 24 hours ago, remember yesterday they had the low in Southern Iowa next Monday. 


















*Surface map for next Tuesday, February 26, 2013 per HPC.  Low pressure moves toward Northeastern Wisconsin.  If this track holds up (probably won't) then the heaviest snow would likely setup in Southern/Eastern Minnesota into Western and Northern Wisconsin.


















5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY 9 PM Tonight until 9 AM Wednesday*

.Tonight...  Very cold.  Clear.  Low 12 below to 17 below.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Wind chills of 25 below to 35 below.

.Wednesday...  Cold.  Sunny.  High 10 to 15.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.  Morning wind chills of 20 below to 35 below.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 0 to 5 below.  Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 16 to 21.

.Thursday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Low 8 to 13.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow possible.  High 20 to 25.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 22 to 27.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  25
Low:    7

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:04 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   5:41 PM CST

Tim


Monday, February 18, 2013

*Numerous winter weather headlines in effect for Tonight and Tuesday. Winter Weather Advisory for Duluth til Midnight Tonight and a Wind Chill Advisory Midnight Tonight until Noon Tuesday*

/Issued 4:17 PM CST, Monday, February 18th, 2013/

Winter Weather Headline information
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota


















*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Location:  Northern and Northeast Minnesota including the Counties of Koochiching...Itasca...St. Louis...Carlton...Lake...and Cook.

Some cities included in the advisory are:  International Falls...Bigfork...Grand Rapids...Duluth...Hibbing...Ely...Crane Lake...Cloquet...Two Harbors...Silver Bay...Finland...Lutsen...and Grand Marais.

Timing:  Until Midnight CST Tonight.

Discussion:  Light snow This Evening with accumulations of 1-2" possible.  Storm totals of 3-7" from the Iron Range to the Borderland.

Winds and visibility:  Northwest winds will increase to 15 to 30 mph Tonight.  Areas of blowing snow could develop.  Visibilities could drop to a mile or less at times.

Impacts:  Roads will be snow covered and slippery.  Use caution if you have travel plans and be sure to allow extra time to reach your destination.

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*

Location:  All of Northern and Northeast Minnesota including the Counties of Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Carlton...St. Louis...Lake...and Cook.

Timing:  Midnight Tonight until Noon Tuesday.

Discussion:  Wind chill values of 20 below to 35 below developing late Tonight and lasting through Tuesday Morning.  Frost bite will occur under these conditions if precautions are not taken.  Make sure you wear a hat and gloves if you will be outdoors.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

Location:  Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Hurley...Gile...and Upson.

Timing:  Until Midnight CST Tuesday Night.

Discussion:  Heavy lake effect snow showers will develop Tonight and last through Tuesday Evening.  Gusty northwest winds of up to 30 mph will cause occasional whiteout conditions.  Roads will be snow covered and slippery.

Total snowfall accumulations:  6-12".

If you must travel use extreme caution and make sure you have a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water.  Be sure to let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Location:  Bayfield and Ashland Counties in Northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Cornucopia...Port Wing...Bayfield...Butternut...Ashland...Clam Lake...and High Bridge.

Timing:  Until Midnight CST Tuesday Night.

Discussion:  Occasional lake effect snow showers Tonight through Tuesday Evening.  The snow could be heavy at times.  Gusty northwest winds of up to 30 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.  Roads will be snow covered and slippery.  Slow down and use extreme caution if you have travel plans and be sure to allow extra time to reach your destination.


Total snowfall accumulations:  3-8".

Tim

Arctic blast into Wednesday; Strong winds Tonight/Tuesday; Heavy lake effect snow east of the Twin Ports.

/Issued 2:38 PM CST, Monday, February 18th, 2013/

*7 day precipitation forecast from the HPC.  Finally some significant precipitation amounts for the Central Plains, remember this area is suffering from a major drought, so any precipitation they get will help at least a little bit.  

For Minnesota anywhere from 0.25 to 1.25" of precipitation is forecast to fall between now and next Monday, most of this falls as snow so in the end there could be some pretty hefty totals by early next week when you combine the 2 possible systems that could affect the Gopher state, 1 later this week, and the other late this weekend/early next week.

 














Weather Tidbits:

*23 days in a row with at least a trace of snow at Duluth, Minnesota (January 27-February 17)  We could see this streak come to an end on Wednesday.

*39 days in a row with at least a trace of snow at International Falls, Minnesota (January 11-February 18)

Snowfall and precipitation update for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

February snowfall total (ending on the 17th)  13.0"
Departure:  +6.0"

Winter 2012-13 snowfall total (December 1-February 17th)  35.4"
Departure:  -8.7"

Annual snowfall total (July 1-February 17th)  46.7"
Departure:  -13.5"

Note:  Yes, were still below average when you look at the winter and the annual totals, but were not doing that bad, 1 or 2 decent storms and we will get that much closer to average.  Will see what happens in the next few weeks.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

February precipitation total (ending on the 17th)  0.77"
Departure:  +0.35"

Winter 2012-13 precipitation total (December 1-February 17)  3.60"
Departure:  +1.01"

Note:  Were doing fine in terms of the amount of precipitation we've received thanks in large part to the multiple rain events we had back in December and January.

Snowfall report for February 17-18, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Littlefork, MN (Koochiching County)  7.5"
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  6.9"
8 S of Bigfork, MN (Itasca County)  1.1"
Grand Portage, MN (Cook County)  1.0"

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A broad area of low pressure averaging 1000mb was moving east into Lake Superior and extended south to Northern Missouri.  A cold front has reached the Minnesota-Wisconsin border as of 2 PM.  Another arctic blast is heading south/east out of the Northern Plains This Afternoon with mild temperatures covering most of the Northland Today.  Highs were in the 20s and 30s with winds shifting from the south/east to the northwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

A potent upper trough with 60-90 meter height falls covered the Upper Midwest and Central Plains per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from -4 to -8C in Southern through Northeastern Minnesota to -10 to -14C in Northern and Western Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 18th)

Dual lows late This Afternoon will phase over the Central Great Lakes Tonight with pressures dropping to 993-995mb Overnight.  Winds will increase out of the northwest during the night at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.  These brisk winds could lead to some areas of blowing snow later Tonight.  Some light snow and flurries will also occur in our area with accumulations ranging from a dusting to 1".  Lows will range from around 10 above to the teens below zero with wind chills dropping to between 15 below and 25 below Overnight.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (February 19th)

A rather impressive shot of late season arctic air will cover the Northland during this period as strong low pressure averaging 990mb moves slowly toward the Eastern Great Lakes while a very strong high pressure of around 1043mb builds south out of Northern Canada.  A gusty and cold N/NW flow will be the net result in our area.  Highs on Tuesday will only reach the single digits below to single digits above zero with lows Tuesday Night in the single digits, teens, and 20s below with a few 30s below even possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 25 mph, decreasing to 5 to 15 mph Tomorrow Night.

Note:  Heavier lake effect snow will develop later Tonight and persist into Tuesday along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.  Total snowfall accumulations of 3-8" are possible in Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties.  There may also be a band of lake effect snow that affects Northeast Pine and Southeast Carlton Counties in Minnesota Tonight and Tuesday AM with 1-3" of accumulation possible for Holyoke and Askov.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

Wednesday through Friday (February 20th-22nd)

High pressure will keep Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin dry on Wednesday and Thursday, meanwhile a powerful winter storm will reach the Central Plains with heavy snow and strong winds affecting much of Nebraska, parts of Kansas, Iowa, and South Dakota from late Wednesday into Thursday.  Low pressure will move into the Central Plains later this week and is forecast to move into the Upper Midwest along with it's upper level trough by Friday, this system will weaken dramatically, however, as it moves into the Upper Midwest.  Result from this will be for much lighter amounts of snow compared to what will fall farther south.

The way it looks right now is that will see a band of snow move slowly north out of Southern Minnesota Thursday Evening, I still have some doubts on how far north this band of snow will get due to the presence of the strong high to our N/NE which will feed a very dry airmass down Lake Superior.  Often times the computer models bring the snow in much quicker than what actually happens, and this may be the case this time around.  

I don't think will get much snow out of this storm, but there is potential for at least a 1-3" snow event for Thursday Night and Friday.  The most likely areas to get minor accumulations later this week look to be in Eastern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin, also including the Twin Ports and North Shore where some light lake effect/enhanced snow could develop as long as the atmosphere moistens up enough.  

High temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be in the single digits and teens with milder temperatures returning for Thursday and Friday when will get into the teens and 20s.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with lows Thursday Night in the single digits and teens.

*Surface map forecast for Friday Morning, February 22nd, 2013 per HPC.  Once a powerful low <994mb 1008mb="" around="" as="" br="" friday.="" into="" iowa="" it="" moves="" on="" to="" weakens="">

















*Here's the surface map forecast for NEXT Monday, February 25th, 2013 per HPC.  The low in Southwest Iowa may be our next opportunity to get some snow in the Northland.

















Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(February 23rd-28th)

Lingering low pressure and an upper level trough could go on to produce a little more snow in our area this coming Saturday, not expecting much in the way of accumulation though.  A stronger storm system could develop over the Central Plains and track toward the Great Lakes from the 24th-26th, this one could bring some snow to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but it will depend on the storm track, and with it being a week away the computer models are not in the best agreement so stay tuned.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 AM TONIGHT*

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY 12 AM TONIGHT UNTIL 12 PM TUESDAY*

.Tonight...  Becoming breezy and turning colder.  Mostly cloudy with light snow and flurries at times.  Patchy freezing drizzle early.  Snowfall accumulations less than 1".  Low 2 below to 7 below.  Wind northwest increasing to 15 to 25 mph.  Overnight wind chills of 20 below to 30 below.

.Tuesday...  Breezy and cold.  Snow showers or flurries possible, mainly during the Morning.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 3 to 8.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.  Morning wind chills of 20 below to 30 below.

.Tuesday Night...  Very cold.  Partly cloudy.  Low 12 below to 17 below.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 10 to 15.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 0 to 5 below.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 16 to 21.

.Thursday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Low 8 to 13.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow possible.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  25
Low:    7

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:06 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   5:40 PM CST

Tim