Wednesday, November 27, 2013

November 27, 2013 - Weather Report. Latest on Tonight's snow event. Stay safe everyone.

/Issued 4:11 PM CST, Wednesday, November 27, 2013/

-This system is a potent little bugger.  Note:  Snowfall totals will vary quite a bit across the Northland with 2 areas of heavier snowfall amounts.  One along the North Shore of Lake Superior thanks to southeasterly winds. The other area for heavier totals will be roughly from Grand Rapids and Hibbing toward to the Twin Ports, south along I35 to Moose Lake, and into portions of Northwest Wisconsin...Most spots in that 2-5" range should see on average of 2-3", but isolated 4-5" amounts are likely.
















-National Weather Service hazards map.

Purple=Winter Weather Advisory.
















-Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 5 PM CST.  Source:  intellicast.com.

Blue=snow, darker blue indicates moderate to heavy snowfall.
















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A broad low pressure trough extended from Central Manitoba to Central South Dakota late This Afternoon with a warm advection pattern occurring east of this system.  Snow has broken out over much of Northern and Northeast Minnesota and in parts of Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon as this system heads east. There's also been some lake enhanced snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior as winds swung around to the SE This Afternoon.  High temperatures Today were in the mid teens to low 20s with south or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Snowfall report for November 26, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Gile, WI (Iron County)  12.5"
Hurley, WI (Iron County)  8.0"
Mellen, WI (Ashland County)  6.5"
Glidden, WI (Ashland County)  6.0"
2 NW of Mellen, WI (Ashland County)  4.8"
Iron River, WI (Bayfield County)  2.0"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (November 27)

Occasional snow will occur Tonight over Northern/Eastern Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin as a weak low pressure system tracks into the Upper Midwest.  Although this is a fairly weak system, there's decent FGEN forcing taking place This Evening along with strong warm air advection which is leading to a narrow band of more moderate snowfall generally along a Grand Rapids - Duluth - Moose Lake line and points southeast from there.  By late Tonight expect some additional light snow and flurries but the bulk of the snow should fall before Midnight the way it looks now.

Lows Tonight under mostly cloudy skies will be in the teens and 20s with south or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Thanksgiving Day/Night (November 28)

Low pressure exits off to our SE while a trough extends NW of the low into Northeast Minnesota.  What this all means is that some snow should continue Tomorrow generally over the Arrowhead of Minnesota while flurries and snow showers ending during the early Morning hours over the remainder of the Northland.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with highs in the teens and 20s with lows in the single digits and teens.  Winds will be out of the north on Thursday and from the north or southeast Thursday Night.  Wind speeds will range from 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (November 29-December 1)

Flurries or snow showers are possible along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior on Friday.  A weak system stays north of the border Friday Night/Saturday and could bring a little bit of light snow or flurries to parts of the Northland.  Looks mainly dry on Sunday.  Highs will be in the 20s on Friday.  20s to low 30s on Saturday and Sunday.  Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the teens.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(December 2-7)

Near to below average temperatures are expected through this period.  Still looks like the pattern may turn more active next week as a deepening trough edges east out of the Western U.S. while arctic air seeps down into the Northwest U.S., Rockies, and Northern Plains.  Snow or a mixture of precipitation could occur at times across NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin through this whole period but whether or not any of the precip is significant or not remains to be seen.  There is potential though for a decent snow event at some point next week.  Stay tuned.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* until 10 PM CST Tonight

.Tonight...  Occasional snow.  Total accumulations of 2-3".  Low 15 to 20.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thanksgiving Day...  Snow showers or flurries possible during the Morning.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 20 to 25.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind north around 10 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 23 to 28.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 15 to 20.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  29
Low:   15

Sunrise Thursday:  7:30 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:24 PM CST

Tim