Tuesday, October 1, 2013

October 1, 2013 - Weather Report. Latest on the late week storm; Snow stats from last winter included in this post and a few other tidbits too.

/Issued 4:22 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 1, 2013/

*NAM 18z run valid for Friday Night.  850mb wind forecast.  Easterly winds up at around 5,000 feet could be as strong as 40-50 knots by Friday Evening in the yellow/red shaded areas on this map.  The funneling effect down Western Lake Superior could generate 30-40 mph wind gusts in the Twin Ports Friday into Saturday with possible gales over Western Lake Superior.















*Surface map for Friday, October 4, 2013.  (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
















*Surface map for Saturday, October 5, 2013.  (Source, Weather Prediction Center)

















...Strong autumn storm Friday-Saturday...

Potential storm impacts:

-Gale force winds out of the east/northeast possible in the Twin Ports Friday thru Saturday.

-Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2" in NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin with locally higher totals possible.

-Isolated thunderstorm potential Wednesday PM, Thursday, and again Friday Evening/Saturday AM mainly south of the Twin Ports.

September 2013 climate summaries for select cities in Minnesota

International Falls:

Average monthly temperature:  57.8 degrees
Departure:  +4.2 degrees

Total precipitation:  2.01"
Departure:  -0.98"

Twin Cities:

Average monthly temperature:  67.2 degrees
Departure:  +5.2 degrees

Total precipitation:  1.35"
Departure:  -1.73"

St. Cloud:

Average monthly temperature:  62.9 degrees
Departure:  +4.3 degrees

Total precipitation:  1.87"
Departure:  -1.59"

Rochester:

Average monthly temperature:  64.0 degrees
Departure:  +3.1 degrees

Total precipitation:  1.22"
Departure:  -2.23"

Duluth:

Average monthly temperature:  59.9 degrees
Departure:  +4.3 degrees

Total precipitation:  1.26"
Departure:  -2.85"

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, MN (Airport location)

*Well, we did it again.  Today marked the 99th day in 2013 with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees.  Yes, I was wrong as I thought Monday's 70s would've been the last of them until spring 2014.  Note:  Annual average is 85 days.  We have a shot at getting to 100 days this year, all comes down to Wednesday.

*September marked the 4th consecutive month with an above average monthly temperature and the 3rd consecutive month with below average precipitation.

*Since July 1, 2013:  4.97" of precipitation.  Average:  11.66".  Precipitation deficit of 6.69".  I have a feeling by the end of this month will erase that precip deficit by at least 3", if not by more.

2012/2013 monthly snowfall totals for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Note:  Days with snow means at least 0.1" of accumulation.

September 2012:

Total:  0.1"
Normal:  0.1"
Departure:  Average
Days with snow:  1

October 2012:

Total:  1.1"
Normal:  2.3"
Departure:  -1.2"
Days with snow:  4

November 2012:

Total:  10.1"
Normal:  13.7"
Departure:  -3.6"
Days with snow:  7

December 2012:

Total:  13.2"
Average:  17.7"
Departure:  -4.5"
Days with snow:  12

January 2013:

Total:  9.2"
Average:  19.4"
Departure:  -10.2"
Days with snow:  14

February 2013:

Total:  19.1"
Average:  12.4"
Departure:  +6.7"
Days with snow:  15

March 2013:

Total:  25.8"
Average:  13.2"
Departure:  +12.6"
Days with snow:  9

April 2013:

Total:  50.8"
Average:  6.9"
Departure:  +43.9"
Days with snow:  15

May 2013:

Total:  Trace
Average:  0.4"
Departure:  -0.4"
Days with snow:  0

Note:  Total snowfall for the 2012-13 season:  129.4"
Average:  86.1"
Departure:  +43.3"
Days with snow:  77

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Lots of wind energy out there Today.  A powerful jet stream with winds of 100-120 knots stretches from the Northwest U.S. to Northern Minnesota late This Afternoon with a mid level wind maximum of 70-90 knots over Northern Minnesota per RAP model analysis at 4 PM Today.  The surface map reveals a deep area of low pressure averaging 992mb over Northern Ontario with high pressure of 1014-1016mb along the Nebraska/South Dakota state line.  A cold front passed through the Northland earlier Today, this front did bring a few spotty showers to the mainly Northern Minnesota, otherwise it was a dry day with mild high temperatures in the 60s and 70s.  Gusty west winds were the story of the day with wind speeds of 10 to 25 mph with up to 30-35 mph wind gusts at times.

*Very strong jet stream winds of 80-100+ knots over the Northern tier of the U.S. Today.  (Source, 12z RAP model analysis)


















Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (October 1)

A quiet night in the weather world as high pressure moves through the Upper Midwest.  Clear to partly cloudy skies can be expected with lows in the 40s, but a few 30s can't be ruled out.  West or southwest winds are forecast at 5 to 15 mph with stronger gusts approaching 30 mph This Evening.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (October 2)

A warm front will develop across Northern Iowa and will try to lift north into Southern Minnesota Tomorrow Night as an area of low pressure moves east out of Nebraska.  A warm and moist advection pattern will begin during this period with occasional showers developing at times along and north of that warm front to our south.  An increase in elevated CAPE is also expected Tomorrow Night which could lead to a few thunderstorms primarily in East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the south, north, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (October 3-5)

A stormy weather pattern is looking more and more likely late this week.

Low pressure should develop somewhere in the Eastern Colorado/Western Oklahoma area on Thursday.  This low will then head northeast and deepen as it does so.  Once the low gets into Iowa model agreement tapers off.  The EURO (12z) run is now the slowest model and would keep this storm around the area into Monday!  The GFS, NAM, CANADIAN and WPC models are faster than the ECMWF with the bulk of the storm moving away by Saturday Night.

Rain and wind should impact the Northland Friday into Saturday with some rain also expected at times on Thursday.  A few thunderstorms are possible as well from Thursday into Friday, mainly over Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Gusty winds out of the east will develop on Friday and linger into Saturday, the winds could be especially strong near Lake Superior with gusts of 30-40 mph certainly possible.

The chances for snow appear to be diminishing with each new model run as the surface temperatures look warm enough to keep things in the form of rain.  Still gotta watch the model trends though for any future changes.

High temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday and Friday with a few 60s possible in Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s.  Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

*Still looking at widespread 1-3" precipitation totals in the Upper Midwest between Wednesday Evening and Saturday.  (Source, Weather Prediction Center)















Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(October 6-11)

Near to below average temperatures are expected through this period.  Could be unsettled at times as well with rain shower chances between the 8th-11th.  A lesser chance on Sunday (6th) Unless this late week storm is in no hurry to move out, if that's the case then showers would linger into Sunday.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Breezy This Evening.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind west to southwest at 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 67 to 72.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Considerable cloudiness.  Occasional showers possible.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind becoming east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Breezy.  Occasional rain.  High 53 to 58.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Breezy.  Occasional rain.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Friday...  Windy.  Occasional rain.  High 50 to 55.  East wind at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Friday Night...  Windy.  Occasional rain.  Low 45 to 50.  East wind at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Saturday...  Windy.  Occasional rain.  High 45 to 50.  East wind at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  58
Low:  40

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:09 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   6:46 PM CDT

Tim