Saturday, March 2, 2013

Do you want snow? If you said yes, then head to Western-Southern Minnesota this coming Monday/Tuesday.

/Issued 3:31 PM CST, Saturday, March 2nd, 2013/

-Winter Storm Watch (dark blue) covers much of Western, Central and Southern Minnesota from Sunday Night into Tuesday.  (Source, NOAA)















LRC verification for winter 2012-2013 (December-February)

Duluth, Minnesota:

Mean temperature:  15.4F
Actual:  15.0F 
Error:  0.4

Days with snow:  38
Actual:  41
Error:  3

Total snowfall:  51.5"
Actual:  41.5"
Error:  10.0"

2012-2013 meteorological winter climate summaries for select cities in Minnesota.

(December 1 - February 28)

Duluth

Average temperature:  15.0F
Normal:  13.3F
Departure:  +1.7 degrees

Total precipitation:  3.99"
Departure:  +1.01"

Total snowfall:  41.5"
Departure:  -8.0"

International Falls

Average temperature:  8.3F
Normal:  8.1F
Departure:  +0.2 degrees

Total precipitation:  4.80"
Departure:  +2.80"

Total snowfall:  59.4"
Departure:  +9.3"

Twin Cities

Average temperature:  19.8F
Departure:  +1.0 degree

Total precipitation:  3.83"
Departure:  +1.00"

Total snowfall:  34.7"
Departure:  +2.9"

St. Cloud

Average temperature:  15.3F
Departure:  +0.4 degrees

Total precipitation:  3.30"
Departure:  +1.24"

Total snowfall:  34.3"
Departure:  +9.3" 

Low temperature report for March 2, 2013
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  -6F
International Falls, MN:  -20F
Hibbing, MN:  -12F
Silver Bay, MN:  -15F
Ely, MN:  -18F
Orr, MN:  -18F
Cook, MN:  -20F
Crane Lake, MN:  -24F
Bigfork, MN:  -17F
Babbitt, MN:  -22F
Embarrass, MN:  -24F
Floodwood, MN:  -15F
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  -13F
Kabetogama, MN:  -17F
3 E of Orr, MN:  -20F

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Partly to mostly sunny skies prevailed Today with high temperatures in the middle 20s to around 30 degrees.  Winds were light and variable in direction at 10 mph or less.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

A northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest with an upper trough over the Eastern U.S. and an upper level ridge over the Rockies/Southwest U.S.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -4 to -12C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 2nd)

A weak warm air advection pattern will spread east out of the Northern Plains Tonight, result from this will be for partly to mostly cloudy skies and possibly a few snow flurries in Northern Minnesota.  Lows will be highly dependent on how much cloud cover there is Tonight, thinking will see single digits below to teens above zero for the spread in the Northland, but teens below zero is certainly possible especially in the Arrowhead and down toward the Hayward Lakes.  Winds will be out of the south or east at around 10 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (March 3rd)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue this period with strong high pressure centered to our north while a potent storm system dives southeast out of Western Canada and into the Northern Plains/Western High Plains.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens.  Winds will be out of the east or southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

Monday through Wednesday (March 4th-6th)

A winter storm is targeting parts of North and South Dakota as well as portions of Western, Central and Southern Minnesota early next week.  Low pressure and a strong upper level low are forecast to drop south/southeast out of the Northern Plains and into the Midwest next Monday and Tuesday while dry high pressure remains over Ontario.  That high to our north will likely cause the snow to basically stop progressing east once it reaches Central Minnesota.  Note:  That cutoff point at the moment looks like it'll setup along a Bemidji-Twin Cities-La Crosse line, meaning areas along and west-southwest of this line have the potential to pick up several inches of snow, while areas east-northeast of that line receive little to no snow on Monday and Tuesday.

In our local area:  I'm thinking places like Cass Lake, Walker, Leader, Brainerd, Aitkin, Pine City, Danbury and Siren could pick up 1-3" of snow from Monday PM into Tuesday.

High temperatures will mainly be in the 20s from Monday through Wednesday with lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night in the single digits and teens.

-Storm track forecast for early next week.  A strong area of low pressure dives SE out of British Columbia and reaches Northern South Dakota Monday Evening while weakening as it does so.  This type of storm track should keep almost all the snow west-south of the Twin Ports next Monday and Tuesday.  (Source, HPC)

















Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(March 7th-12th)

A possible split flow during this period which means the computer models will struggle on the track of any storm that could develop.  This entire period could have a bit of snow or mixed precipitation at times, but it's far too early to say if any of this will be heavy or not.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind southeast around 10 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30. 

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  29
Low:  12

Sunrise Sunday:  6:44 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   5:58 PM CST

Tim 

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