Thursday, March 7, 2013

A possible snow or mixed precipitation event in the Northland Friday Night-Sunday AM.

/Issued 10:22 AM CST, Thursday, March 7th, 2013/

-Here's the 4" or greater snowfall probability forecast for Saturday Morning through Sunday Morning.  (Source, WPC)

Red=High risk for at least 4" of snow.
Green=Moderate risk for at least 4" of snow.
Blue=Slight risk for at least 4" of snow.



















-Areas outlined in blue are in a Slight risk to get at least 0.25" of Ice accumulation Friday Night/Saturday Morning.  (Source, WPC)





















*Potential snow and mixed precip event Friday Night-Sunday Morning*

Low pressure initially over the Rockies will move out into the Central Plains between Friday and Saturday.  The low will then head east or northeast and toward the Central Great Lakes Saturday Night and Sunday.

A significant amount of low level moisture is expected to surge north through the Plains and Upper Midwest out ahead of this storm for Friday and Saturday.

The tricky part to this forecast is what types of precipitation will we see in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin?  850mb temperatures and wet bulb temperatures are supportive of mainly frozen precipitation in Northern and Northeast Minnesota, while warmer H85 temperatures result in a better chance for a rain or mixed precipitation event in Northwest Wisconsin, and possibly even into Eastern Minnesota.

Precipitation may start to affect the Northland late Friday Night, more likely Saturday Morning and through the day Saturday.  Precipitation could linger into Saturday Night and Sunday Morning depending on the exact track of the low once it gets out into the Plains.  

A quick look at the 12z model guidance This Morning shows the NAM lingering the storm into Sunday Morning, while the GFS is more progressive and would end the precip in most of our area by Saturday Night.

The potential exists for several inches of snow accumulation and possibly some sleet/ice accumulations in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Friday Night into Saturday Night.  Winter weather headlines may be needed for parts of our area.

Stay tuned for more updates.

Tim