Friday, March 1, 2013

A chilly night ahead; Weekend looks okay; Possible flakes late Saturday-Sunday.

/Issued 3:37 PM CST, Friday, March 1st, 2013/

*HPC's 4" or greater snowfall probability forecast for Monday, ending at 6 PM.  Overall I agree with what this map shows, although the Slight risk area (blue line in the map) might be a tad too far north into Minnesota.



















It's March! Lets take a look at the climate normals for this month.

Duluth, MN (Airport location)

Average temperature:  25.9F
Average precipitation:  1.49"
Average snowfall:  13.2"

Sunrise on the 1st:  6:48 AM CST
Sunrise on the 31st:  6:49 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  5:55 PM CST
Sunset on the 31st:  7:37 PM CDT

February 2013 climate data for select cities in Minnesota

International Falls

Average temperature:  7.8F
Departure:  -2.6 degrees

Total precipitation:  1.51"
Departure:  +0.94"

Total snowfall:  20.8"
Departure:  +10.8"

Note:  International Falls had it's 7th wettest and 5th snowiest February on record.

Twin Cities

Average temperature:  19.0F
Departure:  -1.8 degrees

Total precipitation:  1.33"
Departure:  +0.56"

Total snowfall:  15.1"
Departure:  +7.4"

St. Cloud

Average temperature:  14.8F
Departure:  -2.2 degrees

Total precipitation:  1.33"
Departure:  +0.74"

Total snowfall:  16.8"
Departure:  +9.8"

Duluth

Average temperature:  14.6F
Departure:  -0.5 degrees

Total precipitation:  1.16"
Departure:  +0.35"

Total snowfall:  19.1"
Departure:  +6.7"

Meteorological winter 2012-13 climate summaries for select cities in Minnesota

Note:  Met winter runs from December 1 through February 28.

Duluth

Total precipitation:  3.99"
Departure:  +1.01"

Total snowfall:  41.5"
Departure:  -8.0"

International Falls

Total precipitation:  4.80"
Departure:  +2.80"

Total snowfall:  59.4"
Departure:  +18.6"

Twin Cities

Total precipitation:  3.83"
Departure:   +1.00"

Total snowfall:  34.7"
Departure:  +2.9"

St. Cloud

Total precipitation:  3.30"
Departure:  +1.24"

Total snowfall:  34.3"
Departure:  +9.3" 

*Winter 2012-13 temperature departure map (Dec 1- Feb 28)  Most of Minnesota saw near to slightly cooler than average temperatures this winter with far Southeast Minnesota having slightly warmer than average temperatures.























*Winter 2012-13 precipitation departure map (Dec 1 - Feb 28)  Like to see green and blue colors when you look at a precipitation map, it means that it was wetter than average.






















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A seasonable start to March with highs close to or a little below average with 20s common throughout the area Today.  Skies were partly to mostly cloudy and there was a pesky band of real light snow (mostly snow flurries) that developed at the head of Lake Superior Today with a favorable ENE wind in place, with trace amounts of accumulation.  Wind speeds were in the 5-15 mph range Today.

Today's Upper Level Analysis

A north-northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  An upper level trough was over the Northeast U.S. while an upper level ridge covered the Southwest U.S.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -8 to -12C in Minnesota.

*Snow depth map for Minnesota as of February 28, 2013.  A nice snow pack still exists in much of Minnesota with Western and Northern areas of the state having the greatest snow depths of 12-18".  Get out and enjoy the snow while you can.  (Source, MNDNR)
























Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 1st)

Strong high pressure averaging 1035mb will be centered north of Minnesota resulting in clear to partly cloudy skies Tonight.  It's gonna be quite chilly with lows in the single digits and teens below zero across Northern Minnesota with single digits and teens in the rest of our area.  North or east winds are forecast at 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (March 2nd)

Dry Tomorrow with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs will mainly be in the 20s with south winds at 5 to 15 mph.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue Tomorrow Night with a weak warm air advection pattern developing in the Upper Midwest which may promote the development of a few snow showers or flurries, mostly in Northern Minnesota where a dusting to one half of accumulation is possible.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits and teens with south or east winds 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

Sunday through Tuesday (March 3rd-5th)

A few flurries could linger into Sunday, and then it looks generally dry early next week with another strong area of high pressure setting up to our north in Manitoba and Ontario.  High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s Sunday and Monday with teens and 20s on Tuesday.  Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will mainly be in the teens.

Note:  Model spread remains very large for early next week, but the 12z CANADIAN which had been a snowy solution for the Northland did trend drier with it's recent run with no snow being predicted now by the CANADIAN model which has support from the GFS.  The NAM seems to be the odd model out with it's depiction of a significant snow event in the Northland for early next week.  The 12z run showed 6-15" of snow falling in NE MN and NW WI.  The 18z run has toned down the amounts just a bit, but still shows a healthy amount of snow in most of our area.  I'm going to continue to lean toward the drier solution and will discount what the NAM is showing.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(March 6th-11th)

Looks dry the middle of next week.  Still may see a system bring a bit of snow or mixed precipitation to our area sometime during the 7th-9th, doesn't look like a real big deal at this point though.  Near to below average temperatures through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.  Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 21 to 26.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 8 to 13.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 27 to 32.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  29
Low:   12 

Sunrise Saturday:  6:46 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   5:56 PM CST

Tim

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