Monday, December 31, 2012

Happy New Year! Thank you for reading my blog, I started this in 2009, and 2012 has been my best year (So far) Cold-dangerous wind chills Tonight-New Year's Morning; Wind Chill Advisory in effect!

/Issued 3:34 PM CST, Monday, December 31st, 2012/

*18z RAP model temperature forecast for Tonight.  Bone chilling cold in Minnesota with widespread 10 below to 20 below (or colder) temperatures by daybreak.
















*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Location:  All of Northeast Minnesota including the Counties of Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...St. Louis...Lake...and Cook, and the cities of International Falls...Bigfork...Grand Rapids...Walker...Brainerd...Aitkin...Pine City...Hinckley...Moose Lake...Duluth...Hibbing...Ely...Two Harbors...Silver Bay...and Grand Marais.

Timing:  10 PM Tonight until 9 AM Tuesday.

Discussion:  Wind chill values of 20 below to 30 below beginning later This Evening and lasting into Tuesday Morning.

A wind chill advisory means that very cold air and strong winds will combine to generate low wind chills.  This will result in frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken.  If you must venture outdoors make sure you wear a hat and gloves.  

*Areas shaded in light blue are under a Wind Chill Advisory for Tonight and Tuesday Morning.  (Map from the NWS Duluth, MN)

















High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

December 23-29, 2012:

12/23:  17F/3 degrees below normal
12/24:  11F/9 degrees below normal
12/25:  10F/10 degrees below normal
12/26:  18F/2 degrees below normal
12/27:  22F/2 degrees above normal
12/28:  23F/3 degrees above normal
12/29:  18F/1 degrees below normal

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

December 23-29, 2012:

12/23:  7F/2 degrees above normal
12/24:  -2F/6 degrees below normal
12/25:  -7F/11 degrees below normal
12/26:  -1F/5 degrees below normal
12/27:  -2F/6 degrees below normal
12/28:  16F/13 degrees above normal
12/29:  7F/4 degrees above normal

Precipitation total for 12/23-12/29:  0.18"
Average:  0.27"
Departure:  -0.09"


*Temperature departure map for 12/23-12/29/2012:  Cold last week! Duluth saw temperatures that were around 4 degrees below average.



















 *Precipitation departure map for 12/23-12/29/12:  The North Shore saw some decent precip totals last week, 75-100% of what they typically receive.  Duluth was around 25% of normal.





















Winter 2012-13 snowfall update through December 30th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service

International Falls, MN:

Total snowfall:  25.3"
Departure:  -5.2"

Duluth, MN:

Total snowfall:  24.5"
Departure:  -8.7"

Green Bay, WI:

Total snowfall:  24.3"
Departure:  +7.4"

Eau Claire, WI:

Total snowfall:  21.8"
Departure:  +6.3"

St. Cloud, MN:

Total snowfall:  18.0"
Departure:  -0.3"

Twin Cities, MN:

Total snowfall:  15.8"
Departure:  -5.6"

Grand Forks, ND:

Total snowfall:  14.2"
Departure:  -3.4"

Note:  According to the National Weather Service, 2012 will go down as the 3rd warmest year on record at both Duluth and International Falls, Minnesota.

Duluth, MN:

1:  44.6F/1931
2:  44.5F/1887
3:  44.3F/2012
4:  43.4F/1998
5:  43.0F/2006

International Falls, MN:

1:  42.4F/1987
2:  41.4F/1998
3:  40.6F/2012
4:  40.3F/1981
5:  40.3F/2006
6:  40.3F/1915

January climate averages for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Temperature:  10.2F
Precipitation:  0.96"
Snowfall:  19.4"

Astronomical data:

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:54 AM CST.
Sunrise on the 31st:  7:34 AM CST.

Sunset on the 1st:  4:31 PM CST.
Sunset on the 31st:  5:11 PM CST.  

*The Climate Prediction Center is still calling for enhanced odds for above average precipitation in much of Minnesota during January 2013.


















*There's also a warmer bias showing up for January 2013.  Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above average temperatures in all but Northern Minnesota where average temperatures are expected.  This fits well with the LRC which shows a couple cold shots and some impressive warm-ups, with the biggest warm spell occurring before mid-month.























Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Arctic high pressure of 1026mb was building into Minnesota Today.  Skies were sunny to partly cloudy in the Northland with a cold final day of 2012.  High temperatures were in the single digits and teens with north or west winds at 5 to around 20 mph.

*61.9% of the U.S. is covered by snow as of December 31, 2012.  This is up from 13.3% in late November and up from 18.9% at this time last year.

2012 Dec. 31 snow depth map.












*2011 Dec. 31 snow depth map.














Today's Upper Level Analysis:

One hell of a potent jet stream on the upper air charts Today, this thing stretches from Texas up to New England with wind speeds ranging from 130-160 knots, wow!  Seeing a NW flow across the Upper Midwest Today with 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from -16 to -20C in Central and Northern Minnesota to -12 to -14C in Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (December 31st)

Very cold temperatures are likely with lows in the teens and 20s below zero.  Mostly clear skies are forecast with winds from the west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.  Dangerously cold wind chills of 20 to 30 below will develop This Evening and persist Overnight.  Make sure you bundle up if you plan to be outdoors Tonight.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (January 1st)

The new year will start off on the chilly side.  Partly cloudy skies are forecast this period with arctic high pressure moving off to our south/east.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tuesday Night ranging from around 5 below to the teens above zero.  Winds will turn to the south this period at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (January 2nd-4th)

A clipper system will track north of our area on Wednesday, this system should bring some snow showers and flurries to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with 1" or less of accumulation expected.  Thursday-Friday are looking mainly dry at this time, but lake effect snow showers could affect the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday Night into Thursday with a couple inches of accumulation possible, especially from the Gogebic Range, to Hurley and Gile.

High temperatures will be in the teens and 20s on Wednesday and Friday with single digits and teens for Thursday.  Low temperatures Wednesday Night will range from around 10 below to 10 above with lows Thursday Night in the single digits below to low teens above zero.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(January 5th-10th)

This period looks pretty mild at this time with temperatures mostly above average.  A parade of clippers will stay north of our area giving Manitoba and Ontario some accumulating snowfall from time to time.  Only flurries or snow showers can be expected this far south.  There are signs showing up of a system approaching the Upper Midwest from the Western U.S. toward the middle-end of next week, or from the 9th-11th, but with the mild air in place we may be dealing with precipitation type issues should this system affect the Upper Midwest.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Valid:  Mid-Evening through Tuesday Morning.

.Tonight...  Very cold.  Mostly clear.  Low 10 below to 15 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Wind chills from 20 below to 30 below.

.New Year's Day...  Mostly sunny.  High 10 to 15.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Morning wind chills from 20 below to 30 below.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 to 8.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Snow showers and flurries at times.  Mostly cloudy.  High 18 to 23.

.Wednesday Night...  Flurries possible.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 5 to 10.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  19
Low:    3

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:31 PM CST

Tim










Saturday, December 29, 2012

Flurries/snow showers early Tonight; 0 and subzero lows Overnight; Bitter cold air Monday; Widespread teens and 20s below Monday Night with dangerous wind chills; Wednesday snow chance?

/Issued 3:37 PM CST, Saturday, December 29th, 2012/

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

There's a weak cold front moving southeast through the Northland Today, this front kept some flurries and snow showers going in our area, but accumulations if any have been very minimal.  High temperatures were in the teens to lower 20s with winds out of the southwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest Today while an upper trough moves east into the Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -6 to -10C in Western and Southern Minnesota to -12 to -16C in Central and Northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (December 29th)

Scattered snow showers and flurries will persist This Evening, and then mainly dry for the Overnight hours.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast and it will be a cold one as low temperatures drop into the 5 above to 15 below range.  Winds will be from the northwest or southwest at around 10 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (December 30th)

Low pressure passes north of Minnesota this period with a warm front and cold front connected to this low passing through our area.  Light snow and flurries could affect Northern Minnesota on Sunday with accumulations less than 1".  Sunday Night could feature some flurries or light snow showers throughout the Northland as cold air moves in.  High temperatures on Sunday will be in the teens and 20s.  Lows Sunday Night will range from zero to 20 below in Northern Minnesota to the single digits and teens above zero in Northwest Wisconsin.  Southerly winds Tomorrow will turn to the northwest Tomorrow Night at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

Monday through Wednesday (December 31st-January 2nd)

A few flurries are possible on Monday with high temperatures only in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.  Low temperatures Monday Night should tank into the 10 below to 25 below range with mainly dry conditions.  Tuesday and Wednesday could feature some snow showers and flurries at times as two clipper systems affect the Upper Midwest.  Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tuesday Night ranging from around 5 above to 15 below.

Note:  There is a potential for some accumulating snowfall, especially on Wednesday but the exact details are somewhat uncertain.  The most likely area that could pick up a few inches of snow looks to be along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin, but this may also extend as far west as the Twin Ports and up toward Two Harbors.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(January 3rd-8th)

Looks mainly dry from the 3rd-5th.  Chances for some light snow could return at times between the 6th-8th as more clipper like systems move southeast out of Western Canada.  Below average temperatures are forecast on the 3rd and 4th with near to above average temperatures forecast from the 5th-8th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Flurries and snow showers at times early.  Considerable cloudiness with skies becoming mostly clear later on.  Low 0 to 5 below.  Wind west around 10 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 17 to 22.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 0 to 5 below.  Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.New Year's Eve...  Flurries possible early, otherwise partly cloudy.  High 8 to 13.

.Monday Night...  Mostly clear.  Cold.  Low 11 below to 16 below.

.New Year's Day...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 10 to 15.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 8 below.

.Wednesday...  Snow showers or flurries possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  19
Low:    3

Sunrise Sunday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   4:29 PM CST

Tim

Friday, December 28, 2012

A little more snow Tonight-Saturday; Greatest amounts northeast of Duluth; 2 shots of arctic air for next week.

/Issued 4:03 PM CST, Friday, December 28th, 2012/

-Snow depth map valid the Morning of December 28, 2012 per Midwest Regional Climate Center. 

Some decent snow depths showing up in Northeast Minnesota, especially along the North Shore and into the Arrowhead.  Might be a good weekend to head north to do some skiing or snowmobiling.

















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A couple areas of high pressure were off to our west/north Today while a trough or two covered the Upper Midwest.  Light snow and flurries were common Today, especially around Lake Superior where some heavier snow showers continued as well, especially northeast of Two Harbors.  Snowfall accumulations of 3-8" have been reported along the North Shore of Lake Superior with amounts of 2" or less common over the remainder of the Northland.  Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy Today with high temperatures in the teens and 20s.  Winds were out of the east, north, or west at 5 to 15 mph.

-24 hour snowfall map ending the Morning of December 28, 2012.  Heaviest totals were in two areas...Southern Minnesota and in Northeast Minnesota.

















Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A westerly flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis with two disturbances passing through the region Today.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM were right around -12C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (December 28th)

Snow showers and flurries will continue Tonight, especially near Lake Superior.  Some of the snow showers could be heavy at times, mainly along the North Shore, or from around Two Harbors, to Silver Bay, Lutsen, and Grand Marais.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the single digits and teens, but some Western/Northern locales could dip below zero if skies clear out enough later Tonight.  Winds will be from the north or west at 5 to 15 mph.

*Note:  A winter weather advisory remains in effect for Northern Lake and Cook Counties in Northeast Minnesota until 10 AM Saturday.  And for Southern Lake County in Northeast Minnesota until 4 AM Saturday.  (NWS Duluth)

Saturday and Saturday Night (December 29th)

Snow showers and flurries look to continue on Saturday with the greatest concentration found along the North Shore and Arrowhead regions.  Looks dry for Saturday Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this period with highs Tomorrow in the teens and 20s.  Lows Tomorrow Night will range from around 10 below to 10 above.  Winds from the west on Saturday will turn more southerly Saturday Night at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Sunday through Tuesday (December 30th-January 1st)

The mildest day will be Sunday, after that will have to deal with another shot of cold air for Monday and Tuesday.  An area of low pressure is forecast to track along the Ontario-Minnesota border on Sunday with a cold front dropping SE through the Northland, this front and low could bring a few snow showers and flurries to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday into early Monday.  Looks mainly dry then for Monday Night and Tuesday.

High temperatures will be in the teens and 20s on Sunday with single digits and teens expected for Monday and Tuesday.  Lows Sunday Night will range from around 5 below to 15 above.  Lows Monday Night will be in the single digits to around 20 below.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(January 2nd-7th)

The trend of no major storms continue into early January.  The biggest attention grabber will be the arctic shot of air that is forecast to hit on the 2nd-3rd, moderating temperatures will then occur from the 4th-7th with near to even above average temperatures expected by next weekend the way it looks now.  May have to deal with the occasional weak clipper system which could dust the Northland with snow, but again there won't be any big storms in our area just yet.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Light snow and flurries at times.  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind variable around 10 mph.  Snowfall accumulations less than 1".

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 3 below to 2 above.  Wind southwest around 10 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 17 to 22.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 0 to 5.

.Monday...  Flurries possible early.  Partly sunny.  High 10 to 15.

.Monday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 7 to 12.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  20
Low:    3

Sunrise Saturday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:29 PM CST

Tim 

A winter wonderland in parts of the Northland! Powder continues to fall.

/Issued 11:01 AM CST, Friday, December 28th, 2012/

*Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through Saturday Morning for areas northeast of Duluth.  More information below.

















Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Location:  The Arrowhead of Minnesota including Northern Cook and Northern Lake Counties and the city of Isabella.

Timing:  Until 10 AM Saturday.

Discussion:  Snow showers will continue through Saturday Morning.  An additional 2-5" of accumulation is possible.  Storm total accumulations will vary quite a bit and will range from 3 to as much as 10".

Winds and visibility:  Winds will remain light.  Visibility will drop to under a mile a times due to the falling snow.

Impacts:  Roads and sidewalks will be snow covered and slippery.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Location:  A portion of the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota including Southern Cook County and the cities of Tofte...Lutsen...and Grand Marais.

Timing:  Until 10 AM Saturday.

Discussion:  Snow showers will continue through Saturday Morning.  An additional 2-5" of accumulation is possible.  Storm total accumulations will range from 3 to as much as 10".

Winds and visibility:  Winds will remain light.  Visibility will drop to under a mile at times due to the falling snow.

Impacts:  Roads and sidewalks will be snow covered and slippery.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Location:  A portion of the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota including Southern Lake County and the cities of Two Harbors...and Silver Bay.

Timing:  Until 4 AM Saturday.

Discussion:  Snow showers will continue through early Saturday Morning.  An additional 2-4" of accumulation is possible.  Storm total accumulations will range from 3 to as much as 10".

Winds and visibility:  Winds will remain light.  Visibility will drop to under a mile at times due to the falling snow.

Impacts:  Roads and sidewalks will be snow covered and slippery.

*Preliminary snowfall report for December 27-28, 2012*

Beaver Bay, MN (Lake County)  8.5"
Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)  6.5"
Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  4.0"
6 W of Two Harbors, MN (St. Louis County)  3.2"

3 W of Bayfield, WI (Bayfield County)  3.0"
Larsmont, MN (Lake County)  2.5"
Culver, MN (St. Louis County)  2.0"
Brimson, MN (St. Louis County)  1.3"

Alborn, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0"
Embarrass, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0"

2 WNW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  2.1" measured in Duluth Heights.
6 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  1.5" official NWS total.

Tim

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Some light snow at times into Friday Evening; Minor accumulations for most; Significant amounts for parts of the North and South Shore; LRC January temperature forecast in Today's blog.

/Issued 3:35 PM CST, Thursday, December 27th, 2012/

-Updated winter weather headlines for the Northland.  A winter weather advisory continues for Southern Lake County MN until Noon Friday.  There's also a new winter weather advisory for Bayfield County WI until Noon Friday.  Be prepared for snow covered roads in the advisory areas.  More details below.

















With January fast approaching, here's what the LRC is forecasting for Duluth, Minnesota.

Mean temperature for January:  13.2F
Average:  10.2F
Departure:  +3.0F

Number of days with a low temperature of 0F or colder:  10

Using the LRC, the warmest period during January looks to be the 8th-13th with another spell of mild temperatures occurring between the 23rd-30th, although the 1st stretch of warmth looks more impressive compared to the one toward the end of the month.

How's the LRC doing for December?

Mean temperature:  15.1F
Thru the 26th:  The average December temperature was 19.7F

Number of days with a low temperature of 0F or colder:  6.  Actual total so far:  4

*Preliminary snowfall report for December 27, 2012*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

1 NE of Finland, MN (Lake County)  5.8" measured at Wolf Ridge.
2 ENE of Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)  4.0"
13 N of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  2.5"
3 SW of Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)  2.5"
5 N of Bayfield, WI (Bayfield County)  1.5"
Split Rock Lighthouse, MN (Lake County)  1.0"

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1028mb remained over Ontario Today while an upper air disturbance approaches from the Western High Plains region.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were found in the Northland Today.  Lake effect snow showers have been affecting parts of the North and South Shore of Lake Superior with new snowfall accumulations since late last night ranging from 1-5".  High temperatures Today were in the teens and 20s with variable to east winds at around 10 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

An upper trough covered the Northern Plains with a well defined disturbance churning E-NE along the South Dakota/Nebraska state line.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -10 to -12C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Friday Night (December 27th-28th)

Light snow and flurries will occur at times through this period due to an upper level trough which will move into the Upper Midwest.  Cold temperatures rushing over Lake Superior combined with smaller meso-scale features will continue to produce lake effect snow showers along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior.  The snow bands will likely diminish at times, and then reorganize once again.  Some of these snow showers could be heavy at times.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected this period with low temperatures Tonight and Friday Night in the teens and lower 20s, but some single digits are possible especially in far Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Friday will be in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the east, north, or west at 5 to 10 mph.

Total snowfall accumulations by Friday Night:

4-8" from Two Harbors-Silver Bay-Lutsen-and Grand Marais with locally higher amounts possible, especially between Silver Bay and Grand Marais.

2-5" in Northern Bayfield County in Northwest Wisconsin, including the cities of Port Wing, Cornucopia and Bayfield.

A dusting to 2" for the Iron Range, Highway 2 corridor, the Twin Ports, Brainerd Lakes, I-35 corridor, and most of Northwest Wisconsin.

Note:  A winter weather advisory remains in effect for Southern Lake County in Northeast Minnesota until Noon Friday.  Bayfield County in Northwest Wisconsin is also under a winter weather advisory until Noon Friday per National Weather Service Duluth.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (December 29th-31st)

Flurries or snow showers could persist into Saturday with dry weather for Saturday Night.  Another system could bring some flurries or snow showers to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Sunday and Monday.  High temperatures will be in the teens and 20s Saturday and Sunday with single digits and teens for Monday.  Low temperatures Saturday Night will range from around 10 below to 5 above.  Lows Sunday Night are forecast to be in the single digits below to around 10 above.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(January 1st-6th)

Near to below average temperatures are forecast from the 1st-3rd with temperatures at or above normal from the 4th-6th.  This period looks pretty tranquil at least in the major storm department, but we could get hit by a weak clipper or two which could dust the area with snow.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow and flurries at times.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind variable around 10 mph.  Snowfall accumulations less than 1".

.Friday...  Light snow and flurries at times.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 23 to 28.  Wind variable around 10 mph.  Snowfall accumulations less than 1".

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind west around 10 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 2 above.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 17 to 22.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 0 to 5.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  20
Low:    4

Sunrise Friday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   4:28 PM CST

Tim








Winter Weather Advisory issued for areas NE of Duluth with several inches of snow likely by Friday.

/Issued 11:15 AM CST, Thursday, December 27th, 2012/

-NWS hazards map.  Winter Weather Advisory northeast of Duluth and southwest of Grand Marais through early Friday Afternoon.  Use caution if you have travel plans along Highway 61.  More information below.

















Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Location:  A portion of the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota including Southern Lake County and the cities of Two Harbors...Beaver Bay...Silver Bay...and Little Marais.

Timing:  Until Noon Friday.

Discussion:  Light to moderate snowfall is expected into Friday.  2-4" of snow has already accumulated in the advisory area since last night and another 2-4" is possible by Friday.

Total snowfall accumulations:  4-8" by Friday Afternoon, but locally higher amounts are possible in spots.

Impacts:  Roads in the advisory area will be snow covered.

Wind and visibility:  Winds will remain light, but visibility will drop to 1 mile or less at times due to falling snow.

A winter weather advisory for snow means that accumulating snow will cause travel difficulties.  Be prepared for snow covered and reduced visibility.  Use caution while driving and allow extra time to reach your destination.

*Preliminary snowfall report for December 27, 2012 ending around 7 AM Today*

1 NE of Finland, MN (Lake County)  4.5"
Illgen City, MN (Lake County)  2.1"
Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  1.3"

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

A little bit of snow at times with minor accumulations through Saturday; Heavier amounts NE of Duluth? Moderating temperatures after Tonight.

/Issued 4:20 PM CST, Wednesday, December 26th, 2012/

-12z RGEM total precipitation forecast ending at 6 AM Friday, December 28th, 2012.  Heavier precip totals (QPF) is forecast to be in Southern Minnesota and neighboring states.  But, also note the small area of around 0.10" of liquid precip just northeast of Duluth.  With the cold airmass in place, a tenth inch of liquid precip could fluff up to 3-4" of snow.
















 Weather Tidbits:

-Today marked the 3rd time so far this month and for the winter that the low temperature was at or colder than 0F at Duluth, Minnesota.

-Our first subzero low temperature this winter occurred on December 24th vs. December 5th last winter at Duluth, Minnesota.

-Even with the recent cold temperatures, the average monthly temperature for December at Duluth, Minnesota remains above normal.  20.1F thru the 25th and this is 4.6 degrees warmer than average.

-A major severe weather and tornado outbreak took place on Christmas Day in the Southern U.S.  The latest numbers out of the Storm Prediction Center are as follows:  Tornado reports:  39 with a total of 134 severe weather reports.

-SPC storm reports map for December 25, 2012.
















Low temperature report for December 26, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  -19F
Hibbing, MN:  -14F
Ely, MN:  -17F
Orr, MN:  -15F
Cook, MN:  -18F
Crane Lake, MN:  -18F
Bigfork, MN:  -15F
8 S of Bigfork, MN:  -15F
Northome, MN:  -14F
Embarrass, MN:  -20F
3 E of Orr, MN:  -18F
Gurney, WI:  -12F
Upson, WI:  -17F

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Arctic high pressure ridge of around 1032mb was located north of Minnesota Today with a couple areas of low pressure of 1006-1014mb over the Rockies.  Skies were partly to mostly sunny Today with a few snow flurries in spots.  High temperatures ranged from the single digits in Northern Minnesota to the teens to around 20 degrees in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds were light and variable at around 10 mph or less.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A potent upper trough is heading northeast through the Ohio Valley and Eastern U.S., while a disturbance heads east through the Central Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery.  A west-northwest flow was in place over the Upper Midwest.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from -12 to -14C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  Medium.

Tonight (December 26th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in the Northland with low temperatures ranging from the single digits and teens below zero across Northern Minnesota to the single digits below to mid teens above zero elsewhere.  Light and variable winds will continue at 10 mph or less.  Scattered lake effect snow showers or flurries are possible Tonight close to Lake Superior, although the bulk of the snow is forecast to remain just off-shore, but there is a possibility that snow plumes could hug the coastline along both the North Shore and South Shore Tonight with 1-2" of fluffy snow accumulation possible in isolated locations by dawn.

Thursday and Thursday Night (December 27th)

High temperatures warm into the teens and 20s on Thursday with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.  The disturbance currently over the Central Rockies is forecast to move east reaching the Northern/Central Plains during this period.  Heavier snow associated with that system looks to stay west-south of the Northland, but lighter snows should overspread Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from west to east by Thursday Night.  Low temperatures Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits and teens with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Winds during this period will be out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

Friday through Sunday (December 28th-30th)

Light snow and flurries could persist Friday and even into Saturday as a weak disturbance moves slowly through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  Not looking at much in the way of accumulation with perhaps 1" of total snowfall between Thursday Evening and Saturday, greater snowfall totals are expected in Southern Minnesota.  Another low pressure system should bring a few more flurries or snow showers to the area on Sunday.  High temperatures from Friday through Sunday are forecast to be in the teens and 20s.  Lows Friday Night will be in the single digits and teens with lows Saturday Night in the 15 below to 10 above zero range.

Note:  The computer models are suggesting that bands of lake effect snow will affect portions of the North and South Shore of Lake Superior at times from Thursday into Saturday.  There are good and bad things with this lake setup.  Positives are the cold temperatures at the surface and at 850mb and also the moisture which will approach from the west.  The negative is the surface wind which is expected to stay fairly light and disorganized through Friday.  With the cold air in place, lake effect snow that does develop will likely be fluffy and could pile up in a hurry, but pinpointing what cities/areas will see a steadier lake band is very hard to predict, although the computer models are hinting that a portion of the North Shore, between Two Harbors and Grand Marais may be the spot that picks up several inches of snow through Saturday, it wouldn't surprise me if there is a location or two up the North Shore that pick up 4-5"+ of snow.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(December 31st-January 5th)

No big storms, but moderating temperatures can be expected during this period.  The coldest days look to be from the 31st-2nd with near to below average temperatures.  The period from the 3rd-5th should feature above average temperatures.  A weak system or two could dust the area with snow during the long range, but again there are no signs of any significant weather systems affecting the Northland, possibly through mid-January.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 3 to 8.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 22 to 27.  Wind east around 10 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow and flurries at times.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind east around 10 mph.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow and flurries at times.  High 23 to 28.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow and flurries possible.  Total snowfall accumulations between Thursday Night and Friday Night of around 1".  Low 13 to 18.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 17 to 22.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  20
Low:    4

Sunrise Thursday:  7:53 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:27 PM CST

Tim


Sunday, December 23, 2012

Some light snow late Tonight-Monday AM, around 1" for Duluth; Cold and dry Monday PM-Thursday.

/Issued 4:44 PM CST, Sunday, December 23rd, 2012/

High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

December 16-22, 2012:

12/16:  34F/12 degrees above normal
12/17:  23F/1 degrees above normal
12/18:  26F/5 degrees above normal
12/19:  30F/9 degrees above normal
12/20:  24F/3 degrees above normal
12/21:  20F/1 degrees below normal
12/22:  24F/4 degrees above normal

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

December 16-22, 2012:

12/16:  20F/13 degrees above normal
12/17:  19F/12 degrees above normal
12/18:  15F/9 degrees above normal
12/19:  21F/15 degrees above normal
12/20:  10F/4 degrees above normal
12/21:  2F/3 degrees below normal
12/22:  4F/1 degrees below normal

Precipitation total for December 16-22, 2012:  0.06"
Normal:  0.25"
Departure:  -0.19"

-Temperature departure map for December 16-22, 2012:  Another warm week in the Northland.  Duluth was around 4-5 degrees warmer than average last week.



















-Precipitation departure map for December 16-22, 2012.  Way above average in Iowa, Southern Minnesota, much of Wisconsin, and Michigan last week.























Weather Tidbits:

-LRC predicted 5.5" of snow for Duluth, Minnesota between December 15-22, 2012.  Actual total:  1.0".  It was off by 4.5"

-No snow is in the forecast for December 23-31, 2012 per LRC snowfall forecast.  0.0" is predicted between the 23rd-31st.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1030mb remained in Saskatchewan Today while an upper level disturbance drops southeast through North Dakota with some light snow in that area.  Skies were partly to mostly cloudy in the Northland Today with high temperatures ranging from the single digits in Northern Minnesota with teens to around 20 degrees elsewhere.  Winds were light and from the north or west Today.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

It's an active weather pattern with 3 systems of interest.  One is moving east through Quebec, the 2nd is tracking east through the Northern Plains, the 3rd is entering the Northwest U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from -2 to -6C in the Southern half of Minnesota to -8 to -12C in Central and Northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (December 23rd)

A well defined disturbance is forecast to drop southeast out of the Northern Plains Tonight.  This system should bring some light snow and flurries to areas west-south of the Iron Range and North Shore of Lake Superior.  Up to an inch or two of accumulation is possible by dawn, mainly from Cass Lake-Brainerd-Aitkin-Hinckley-and Pine City with an inch or less of accumulation possible for the Twin Ports, and in most of Northwest Wisconsin.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with lows ranging from the single digits and teens below zero in Northern Minnesota with single digits and teens above in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will be out of the north at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night (December 24th)

Light snow and flurries could linger into Christmas Eve Morning in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with snowfall accumulations under 1".  The rest of this period looks mainly dry in the Northland.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with highs on Monday in the single digits to lower 20s.  Lows Monday Night will range from around 15 below to 5 above.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (December 25th-27th)

A cold and dry weather pattern for the Northland with high temperatures on Tuesday in the single digits and teens.  Wednesday and Thursday's high temperatures are forecast to mainly be in the teens and 20s.  Lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night are forecast to range from 15 below to 5 above.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(December 28th-January 2nd)

There's still a chance for some light snow and flurries in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for the 28th-30th, but this system is looking weaker and weaker with each new model run Today, so it probably won't amount to much at all.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Light snow or flurries possible at times.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind north around 12 mph.

.Christmas Eve...  Light snow or flurries possible during the Morning.  Total snowfall accumulations of around 1".  Partly sunny.  High 10 to 15.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.  Wind northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

.Christmas Day...  Partly cloudy.  High 4 to 9.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  20
Low:    5

Sunrise Monday:  7:52 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   4:25 PM CST

Tim

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Light snow is in the forecast for late Sunday Night and Christmas Eve Morning, up to an inch accumulation; A chilly pattern ahead with subzero nights during the early-middle part of this upcoming week.

/Issued 4:09 PM CST, Saturday, December 22nd, 2012/

*12z European Ensemble model forecast for Wednesday Morning, December 26th, 2012.  Yeah that's a cold pattern for the Northland.  Strong low pressure moving northeast toward the Ohio River Valley and high pressure in Southwest Ontario.  A cold northerly flow will be the result in Minnesota.
















...A burst of light snow possible late Sunday Night-Christmas Eve...

Weather Tidbits:

*Still haven't recorded a subzero low temperature this winter at Duluth, Minnesota.  This should change next week with potentially 2-3 nights of below 0 minimum temperatures possible. 

*Last winter produced 15 nights with a low temperature at or below 0F.  So far this winter:  We've had just 1 night with a low temperature of 0F.  Note:  The LRC forecast for December showed us having 6 nights with a low temperature of 0F or colder.

*The last time the low temperature was below zero at Duluth, Minnesota was on March 5th, 2012 (1 below)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold front stretched from Northwest Wisconsin to Southern Minnesota late This Afternoon with arctic high pressure of 1032mb in Saskatchewan.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies covered the Northland Today with a few flurries in a few spots.  High temperatures ranged from the teens in far Northern Minnesota to the 20s and lower 30s elsewhere.  Winds were from the northwest or southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Upper troughs remained over the Northwest U.S. and Northeast U.S. with an upper level ridge across parts of the Central Plains with a NW flow in place north of this ridge over the Upper Midwest.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +2 to +4C in Central and Southern Minnesota to 0 to -8C in Northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (December 22nd)

Cold front in Northwest Wisconsin late Today will exit to the southeast well before Midnight.  High pressure builds in from the NW during the night with partly to mostly cloudy skies covering our area.  Low temperatures will range from around 10 below in Northern Minnesota to the single digits and teens in Northwest Wisconsin.  North or northwest winds are forecast at 10 to 20 mph.  The northerly winds coming down Lake Superior could trigger some lake effect snow showers later Tonight in Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin, snowfall accumulations of 1-3" are possible.

Sunday and Sunday Night (December 23rd)

Looks mainly dry on Sunday with highs in the single digits to lower 20s, partly cloudy skies are expected with north or west winds at 10 to 15 mph.  A weather disturbance approaching from the Northern Plains could bring some light snow and flurries to parts of our area late Sunday Night, at the moment it looks like the snow would remain west-south of the Highway 2 corridor.  Low temperatures Sunday Night will be in the single digits below to teens above zero with winds out of the north or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (December 24th-26th)

Light snow and flurries could linger in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin into Christmas Eve.  There is the potential for up to an inch of new snow from late Sunday Night into Monday, again mainly west-south of Highway 2.  The rest of this period after Monday is looking mainly dry.  Should be plenty cold with high temperatures in the single digits below to teens above zero from Monday through Wednesday.  Low temperatures will range from around 5 above to 15 below for Monday Night and Tuesday Night.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(December 27th-January 1st)

Another minor snow event is possible in the Northland between December 28th-30th.  00z and 12Z EUROPEAN model is a little more robust with surface low development compared to the GFS, so that'll be something to monitor in coming days.  Storm track still looks pretty far to our SE though, but the EURO solution does show an ENE wind Friday and early Saturday, and this could lead to some lake snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior during that time period.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast from December 27-January 1.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 14 to 19.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible late.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Christmas Eve...  Considerable cloudiness.  Light snow or flurries possible.  High 13 to 18.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Christmas Day...  Partly cloudy.  High 4 to 9.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 7 below to 12 below.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  20
Low:    5

Sunrise Sunday:  7:52 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   4:24 PM CST

Tim






Friday, December 21, 2012

So this is what average temperatures feel like. LRC high temperature chart for Duluth, MN included in Today's blog; A nice poem about Lezak also in the blog.

/Issued 3:11 PM CST, Friday, December 21st, 2012/

-Putting the LRC (Lezak Recurring Cycle) to the test.  Here's the HIGH temperature forecast for Duluth, Minnesota.  This chart began on November 18th, 2012, and runs thru January 10th, 2013.  Credit:  Josh Herman for putting the charts and maps together.

Note:  Concentrate on the green line which equals the high temperature trend.  The black line is the average high temp, and the red line-dots represent the actual high temperature for a given date.  You wanna see the green-red meet or get real close to matching up.

There's a few hits, a few close matches, and some periods where the LRC was way off so far in December.

Dec. 8-9, did well.
Dec. 12-13, not too bad.
Dec. 14-16, not too bad.
Dec. 20-21, pretty good.













Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Strong low pressure of 982mb moved into Northern New York This Afternoon while a high pressure ridge of around 1026mb stretched from the Northern Plains to Eastern Texas.  Partly to mostly sunny skies were common in the Northland Today with temperatures actually near to somewhat below average for late December.  Highs were in the teens in Northern Minnesota with 20s elsewhere.  Winds were out of the north or west at 5 to around 20 mph.

-Final snowfall map for December 19-20, 2012.  Source:  NWS La Crosse, Wisconsin















Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb troughs were in place across the Eastern U.S. and Northwest U.S., while an upper level ridge covered the Rockies and Western High Plains.  850mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from -2 to -6C in Western and Southern Minnesota to -8 to -10C in Central and Northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

(Tonight, December 21st)

Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast with high pressure moving over our area.  Low temperatures will range from around 10 below to 10 above with winds from the west or north at 5 to 15 mph.

(Saturday and Saturday Night, December 22nd)

Stays dry in most of the Northland despite a cold front that'll move SE through our area.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected this period with highs Tomorrow in the teens in Northern Minnesota to the 20s and lower 30s elsewhere.  Low temperatures Saturday Night will range from 10 above to 10 below in Northern-Eastern Minnesota to the teens in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will shift from the south/west to the north-northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Note:  The northerly winds coming down Lake Superior could help to produce some lake effect snow showers Saturday Night in Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin with a few inches of snow possible east of Superior.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

(Sunday through Tuesday, December 23rd-25th)

Lake effect snow showers or flurries could continue at times along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin as a N/NW wind continues from Sunday through Tuesday.  Elsewhere it's looking pretty quiet, although a few snow flurries can't be ruled out Monday and Tuesday.  High temperatures will be in the teens and 20s through this period with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night ranging from 10 below to 10 above.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(December 26th-31st)

There's a weather system brewing for the 28th-30th, at the moment it doesn't look to be a big storm, but some light snow accumulations could certainly occur in portions of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin between next Friday and Sunday.  Near to below average temperatures are expected during this period.

-Today I leave you with this.  A nice poem that someone wrote in regards to the LRC.  Enjoy!

















5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 1 to 7.  Wind west around 12 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 23 to 28.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph, becoming northwest late in the day.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Christmas Eve...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 17 to 22.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 0 to 5.

.Christmas Day...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 8 to 13.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  21
Low:    5

Sunrise Saturday:  7:52 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:24 PM CST

Tim


Thursday, December 20, 2012

Winter Storm Warning issued for a portion of the South Shore of Lake Superior; Preliminary snowfall report for Today.

/Issued 4:42 PM CST, Thursday, December 20th, 2012/

Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

Timing:  Until 9 AM Friday.

Location:  Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Hurley...Gile...and Upson.

Discussion:  Snow will continue to fall Tonight and Friday Morning with total storm accumulations ranging from 5-10" with locally higher amounts possible.

Winds:  North to northwest winds at 15 to 30 mph causing areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Visibility:  Half mile to 1 mile on average, but many locations will fall below one quarter mile in blowing and drifting snow, especially on exposed stretches of Highway 2 near Lake Superior and other roads on the Gogebic Range.

Impacts:  Roads will remain snow and ice covered and slippery. 

A winter storm warning for heavy snow and blowing snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause low visibility and drifting snow.  Snow and ice covered roads and dangerous travel conditions can be expected.  Delay travel if possible.  If you must travel use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a cell phone in case you become stranded. 

==================================================================

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Timing:  Until 9 AM Friday.

Location:  Ashland County in Northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Ashland...High Bridge...and Butternut.

Discussion:  Snow will continue to fall Tonight and Friday Morning with total storm accumulations ranging from 2-5".  North winds gusting to 25 mph will continue to cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.  Most roads will remain snow covered and icy in the advisory area.

===================================================================

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Timing:  Until 9 PM Tonight.

Location:  Sawyer and Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Hayward...Birchdale...Winter...Exeland...Park Falls...Phillips...and Ogema.

Discussion:  Snow will continue This Evening before tapering off to flurries later Tonight.  Total storm accumulations will range from 2-6" with the higher totals found in Price County.  North winds gusting to 25 mph will continue to cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.  Most roads will remain snow covered and icy in the advisory area.

==================================================================  


*Preliminary snowfall report for December 20, 2012*

Gile, WI (Iron County)  5.0"
Phillips, WI (Price County)  4.0"
5 SSE of Phillips, WI (Price County)  3.1"
2 S of Turtle Flambeau, WI (Iron County)  3.0"
2 ENE of Mercer, WI (Iron County)  2.8"
Ashland, WI (Ashland County)  1.6"
3 SW of Winter, WI (Sawyer County)  1.5"
Shell Lake, WI (Washburn County)  1.0"
Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield County)  1.0"

Gusty winds and chilly temperatures in the Northland Tonight; Accumulating snow lingers in parts of NW Wisconsin; Near average temps and dry this weekend; Will it be a snowy January? CPC's monthly outlook included in Today's blog.

/Issued 3:31 PM CST, Thursday, December 20th, 2012/

*500mb 12 hour height change map per SPC meso-analysis.  Quite the storm over the Southern Great Lakes Today.  Very impressive height falls with this storm, as much as 270 meters!















*Surface map for 3 PM on 12/20/12.  Deep low pressure of around 984mb centered very close to Chicago, Illinois late This Afternoon.  The black lines represent the isobars, whenever you see them wrapped up so tight on this type of map, you know it's going to be windy.



















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

The big weather story Today is the massive blizzard that hit Iowa, parts of Illinois, and Wisconsin.  A very strong area of low pressure of 984mb was centered near Chicago, Illinois as of 3 PM.  The northwestern edge of this storm brought some measurable snow to portions of Northwest Wisconsin Today, otherwise skies were partly sunny to overcast Today with a wide range in temperatures from the low to mid teens in Northern Minnesota to the upper 20s and lower 30s in Northwest Wisconsin and the Twin Ports.  North or northwest winds have been increasing Today due to the pressure difference between the strong low to our SE and high pressure to our NW.  Wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph were common, with higher gusts.

Here are a few snowfall reports from December 19-20, 2012
Source:  HPC/NWS.

Des Moines, IA:  12.4"
Waterloo, IA:  10.0"
1 S of Saylorville Lake, IA:  13.8"
Madison, WI:  11.4"
3 W of Beaver Dam, WI:  11.7"
Oshkosh, WI:  9.2"  (via Josh Herman report on twitter)
Minnesota City, MN:  9.7"
Lake City, MN:  7.5"
Rochester, MN:  7.0"

*Snowfall map for the 24 hour period ending the Morning of December 20, 2012.
















Weather Tidbits:

*50 reports of wind damage in the U.S. Today per Storm Prediction Center.  On Wednesday, there were 168 reports of severe weather including 3 tornadoes (2 in Arkansas; 1 in Alabama) 2 day preliminary total is at 218.

*Here's the storm reports map for December 19, 2012 per Storm Prediction Center.

Blue dots=Wind reports.
Green dots=Hail reports.
Red dots=Tornado reports.














*Storm Reports map for December 20, 2012 (ending at 3:10 PM)
















Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A powerful upper trough with 12 hour height falls of 150 to 270 meters is moving east-northeast out of the Midwest and into the Great Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -6 to -10C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (December 20th)

A powerful area of low pressure will move from Northeast Illinois to Southeast Michigan by dawn.  Light snow and flurries will continue in parts of Northwest Wisconsin with additional accumulations of 1-3" possible, especially in Price, Iron, and Ashland Counties.  There could also be some lake effect snow showers Tonight along the South Shore of Lake Superior, and some of this activity could affect Bayfield and Douglas Counties with up to 1-2" of accumulation possible.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with low temperatures in the single digits below to the teens above zero.  North or northwest winds will continue at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Note:  Areas of blowing and drifting snow will occur Tonight in portions of Northwest Wisconsin.

*850mb wind map per RAP model.  Very strong winds of 40-70 knots a few thousand feet in the atmosphere, some of this wind will continue to mix down to the surface Tonight resulting in continued blizzard conditions in parts of Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, and far Southern Minnesota. 

For Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin...Temperatures dropping through the night combined with gusty winds, the wind chill or feels like temperature is forecast to drop to between 5 above and 15 below zero Tonight and early Friday Morning.
















Friday and Friday Night (December 21st)

Deep low pressure heads into the Northeast U.S. while high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest.  Partly cloudy skies are forecast this period.  Lake effect snow showers and flurries may linger into Friday Morning along the South Shore of Lake Superior, otherwise this period looks dry.  High temperatures on Friday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Friday Night in the single digits below to teens above zero.  Winds will be out of the northwest on Friday and west or south Friday Night.  Wind speeds will vary between 5-20 mph with higher gusts still possible into Friday Morning.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

Saturday through Monday (December 22nd-24th)

This weekend looks fairly quiet with high temperatures mainly in the 20s on Saturday and the teens and 20s on Sunday.  Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the single digits below to teens above zero.  Might see some light snow and flurries around the Northland for Christmas Eve (next Monday) as a weak system heads out of the Northern Plains.  This doesn't look like a huge snow maker for our area, but it could bring a dusting-1" of accumulation early next week.  Highs on Monday will be in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(December 25th-30th)

Flurries or snow showers could linger into Christmas Day (25th) Otherwise the remainder of this period looks fairly tranquil at this time.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast from the 25th-30th.

*Climate Prediction Center released it's January 2013 forecast Today.  Perhaps a wetter than average month in Minnesota.  40% chance that precipitation will finish above the normal for the Twin Ports.


















*Temperature outlook for January 2013 per Climate Prediction Center.





















5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.  Wind chill 0 to 10 below.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 16 to 21.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind west around 10 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 23 to 28.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 8 to 13.

.Christmas Eve...  Snow showers and flurries possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 17 to 22.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  21
Low:    6

Sunrise Friday:  7:51 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim




Wednesday, December 19, 2012

A glancing blow! Several inches of snow for parts of NW Wisconsin late Tonight-Friday AM; A dangerous blizzard farther south.

/Issued 5:07 PM CST, Wednesday, December 19th, 2012/

Weather Tidbits:

-The average December temperature (thru the 18th) at Duluth, Minnesota:  23.2F which is 6.5 degrees warmer than normal.  A pretty good chance that December will finish with a temperature warmer than the average for the month.

-So far this month there's been 13 with at least a trace of snow at Duluth, Minnesota.

-Thru December 19th:  9.6" of snow has fallen at Duluth, Minnesota which is 0.8" below average.  For the season, were at 20.9" which is 5.6" below average.  Note:  Last year at this time we had only 7.1" of snow for the season.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 996mb was centered along the Kansas-Oklahoma border as of 4 PM.  A cold front was moving into Northwest Minnesota with a weaker surface low of 1014mb located in Northwestern Minnesota.  Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy Today with some flurries and snow showers, especially earlier in the day.  Snowfall accumulations were light, generally an inch or less.  High temperatures Today were in the 20s and 30s with winds out of the south or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis reveals a SW flow across the Upper Midwest with a powerful jet stream of 120-140 knots stretching from New Mexico to Michigan to New York.  A potent and large winter storm continued to develop Today as a strong upper trough digs into the Central Plains along with 60-120 meter height falls.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from -2 to -4C in Southern Minnesota to -6 to -10C in Western, Central, and Northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (December 19th)

Low pressure deepens from 996mb to around 990mb during the night as it moves NE out of the Southern Plains, toward the Missouri-Illinois border by dawn.  A weak low and cold front over our area will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy Tonight with a few flurries possible as well.  The Southern Plains storm could begin to affect Southeast portions of Northwest Wisconsin where some snow could develop after 2-3 AM Tonight, this snow would most likely impact the Hayward Lakes, Park Falls, Ogema areas.  Low temperatures will be in the teens and 20s with winds out of the north or west at 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (December 20th)

A strong area of low pressure averaging 980-984mb is forecast to track from Western Illinois to Southern Lake Michigan during this period with a widespread, high impact winter storm and blizzard occurring Tonight through Friday Morning from Kansas and Nebraska to Iowa to Southern Minnesota, much of Wisconsin and into Western Michigan.

Eastern parts of Northwest Wisconsin will feel some impacts from this large winter storm with some snow expected from Ashland and Hayward, east to Hurley, also including the Park Falls and Phillips areas.  Lake enhanced snow may also develop during this period in Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin thanks to increasing NNW winds coming off Lake Superior.  But, surface temperatures are kinda marginal as to are the 850mb temperatures.

High temperatures on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s with a few 30s in Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the single digits to around 20.  North or northwest winds are expected this period with wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph, but wind gusts could exceed 30 mph, especially in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Total snowfall accumulation forecast ending Friday Morning:

*3-7" for Ashland, Iron, Sawyer, and Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.  Some cities included are, Ashland, Butternut, Hurley, Gile, Upson, Montreal, Hayward, Exeland, Winter, Birchdale, Park Falls, Phillips, Fifield, and Ogema.  Note:  Blowing and drifting snow is also expected to develop Thursday and will persist into Friday Morning.  Expect roads to become snow covered and hazardous.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (December 21st-23rd)

A strong winter storm will be moving through the Eastern Great Lakes and the Northeast U.S. on Friday, behind this system will see an upper level ridge develop across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with upper troughs covering the Northeast U.S. and Northwest U.S.

Lake effect snow showers are possible on Friday along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin, mainly affecting Ashland and Iron Counties.  The rest of the Northland should be dry both Friday and Saturday.  There could be a little bit of light snow and flurries moving into parts of our area on Sunday as a weak system approaches from the W-NW. 

High temperatures on Friday will be in the teens and 20s with highs Saturday and Sunday mainly in the 20s to around 30.  Low temperatures are forecast to be in the single digits below to teens above zero Friday Night with single digits and teens for Saturday Night.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(December 24th-29th)

There continues to be a threat for some light snow and flurries in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during most of this period.  Snow that does fall shouldn't be significant since the main storm (if one develops) remains well to our south/east.  One thing that may boost snowfall a little bit would be if we get any lake effect next week, temperatures do look cold enough to support a lake effect threat, but as is always the case it will come down to wind direction to determine if the North Shore gets lake effect (ENE wind) or if the South Shore gets it (NNW wind)  Temperatures should be pretty close to a little below average through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible This Evening.  Low 18 to 23.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph, becoming northwest late.

.Thursday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.  Wind north to northwest at 15 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind northwest at 15 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 17 to 22.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  21
Low:    6

Sunrise Thursday:  7:51 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim




Winter Weather Advisory issued for parts of Northwest Wisconsin.

/Issued 1:05 PM CST, Wednesday, December 19th, 2012/

-NWS hazards map.  Winter Weather Advisory for Eastern parts of Northwest Wisconsin, including Hayward, Park Falls, and points north to Ashland and Hurley.  More details below...


















Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Timing:  3 AM Thursday until 9 AM Friday.

Location:  Portions of the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin including the Counties of Ashland and Iron and the cities of Ashland, Butternut, Gile, Hurley, Montreal, and Upson.

Discussion:  Snow will develop after Midnight Tonight and will continue into Friday Morning.  The snow could be enhanced closer to Lake Superior and along the Gogebic range because of north-northwest winds coming off Lake Superior.

Winds:  North winds will increase with gusts to 30 mph for Thursday and Friday.

Total snowfall accumulations:  5-7" by Friday Morning with locally higher amounts possible.

Impacts:  Roads will become snow covered and slippery in the advisory area with blowing and drifting snow also expected.

A winter weather advisory for snow means accumulating snow will cause travel difficulties.  Be prepared for snow covered roads and reduced visibility and use caution while driving.  Allow extra time to reach your destination.

=================================================================

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Timing:  3 AM Thursday until 9 PM Thursday.

Location:  Portions of Northwest Wisconsin including the Counties of Sawyer and Price and the cities of Hayward...Exeland...Winter...Park Falls...and Phillips.

Discussion:  Snow will develop after Midnight Tonight and will continue into Thursday Evening before ending late Thursday Night.

Winds:  North winds will increase with gusts to 30 mph for Thursday and Friday.

Total snowfall accumulations:  3-6".

Impacts:  Roads will become snow covered and slippery in the advisory area with blowing and drifting snow also expected.

Tim

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

A light dusting of snow Tonight/Wednesday; Big snowstorm well to our south Wed-Fri; Cool temps-but nothing arctic thru Christmas.

/Issued 3:45 PM CST, Tuesday, December 18th, 2012/

-The surface map below screams blizzard potential on Thursday from Central/Eastern Iowa, to Southern and Eastern Wisconsin with deep low pressure centered in Western Missouri at 6am Thursday.  The black lines are the isobars, the closer together they are, the stronger the winds.  (Source, 12z European Ensemble model)
















-Big time trouble ahead for Wednesday-Friday for much of the Central Plains into the Central Great Lakes as a major winter storm dumps 6+" of snow along with very strong winds of greater than 30 mph from Kansas and Nebraska, northeast to Wisconsin and Michigan.  Blizzard warning and watch has already been issued for Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the NWS upgrade to a blizzard warning farther northeast, including portions of Iowa and Wisconsin.













-Storm track for mid to late week per HPC.  Kansas/Oklahoma border Wednesday Evening to Central Illinois Thursday Morning to Lake Huron by Friday Morning.  This type of track is too far southeast of Duluth to give us any snow.




















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies were common Today with some flurries and light snow showers.  Highs were in the 20s to around 30 degrees with light and variable winds at around 10 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Several disturbances were over the Northern U.S. Today.  The most potent one was moving into Northern Illinois late This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery, that system dropped a quick couple inches of snow Today in parts of Southern Minnesota.  A second disturbance is churning east through North Dakota, a 3rd disturbance was in Western Ontario.  A powerhouse jet of up to 160 knots stretched from Southern California to the Central Rockies, east to Iowa, and into the Southeast U.S. per RAP model analysis with a powerful storm digging SE into the Southwest U.S. Today with height falls of 60-150 meters.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -2 to -10C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (December 18th)

A weak system will move east out of the North Dakota Tonight, some flurries and light snow showers will be found in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight due to that disturbance.  Accumulations if any will stay under 1".  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the single digits to lower 20s.  Winds will be out of the south or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (December 19th)

A weak area of low pressure along with a cold front will affect the Northland's weather on Wednesday, may see some more flurries Tomorrow along with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  A much bigger storm will head into the Southern Plains on Wednesday before it takes the turn toward the northeast Wednesday Night.  Snow associated with that storm will stay well to our south Tomorrow Night.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s.  Southwest winds will become west or northwest Tomorrow Night.  Wind speeds will range from 10 to around 20 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (December 20th-22nd)

A high impact winter storm will hit Southern, Eastern, and possibly even Central Wisconsin on Thursday into Friday Morning as deep low pressure passes near or slightly east of Chicago, Illinois.  This storm will move into the Eastern Great Lakes on Friday.

Lake effect snow showers could develop Thursday and Friday in Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin as N/NW winds on the backside of that low pressure system combine forces with colder air rushing over Lake Superior, this could lead to several inches of lake effect snow later this week along the South Shore of Lake Superior, mainly affecting Ashland and Iron Counties the way it looks now.

The rest of the Northland should be dry Thursday through Saturday.  High temperatures on Thursday will range from the teens in Northern Minnesota with 20s and lower 30s elsewhere.  Teens and 20s are expected for daytime highs for both Friday and Saturday.  Low temperatures will range from the single digits to around 20 Thursday Night with lows of -5 to +15 for Friday Night.

-HPC still has slight and moderate probabilities for at least 12" of snow Wednesday Night-Thursday Evening from Eastern Iowa to Eastern Upper Michigan.















-Here's the 4" or greater snowfall potential for Wednesday Night-Thursday Evening per HPC.



















Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Medium.

(December 23rd-28th)

Near normal to perhaps a bit below average temperatures are forecast through this period.  Really aren't any big signs of a major storm impacting our weather during the Christmas holiday, and days after Christmas, but we still could get some light snow or flurries at times from the 24th-27th, there's even a chance (albeit small at this point) that we get an E-NE wind coming down Lake Superior early-mid part of next week which could lead to some North Shore lake effect snow.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Flurries and light snow showers at times.  Considerably cloudy skies.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind south at around 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 26 to 31.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 13 to 18.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 17 to 22.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  21
Low:    6

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:50 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:22 PM CST

Tim