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Showing posts from December, 2012

Happy New Year! Thank you for reading my blog, I started this in 2009, and 2012 has been my best year (So far) Cold-dangerous wind chills Tonight-New Year's Morning; Wind Chill Advisory in effect!

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/Issued 3:34 PM CST, Monday, December 31st, 2012/

*18z RAP model temperature forecast for Tonight.  Bone chilling cold in Minnesota with widespread 10 below to 20 below (or colder) temperatures by daybreak.
















*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Location:  All of Northeast Minnesota including the Counties of Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...St. Louis...Lake...and Cook, and the cities of International Falls...Bigfork...Grand Rapids...Walker...Brainerd...Aitkin...Pine City...Hinckley...Moose Lake...Duluth...Hibbing...Ely...Two Harbors...Silver Bay...and Grand Marais.

Timing:  10 PM Tonight until 9 AM Tuesday.

Discussion:  Wind chill values of 20 below to 30 below beginning later This Evening and lasting into Tuesday Morning.

A wind chill advisory means that very cold air and strong winds will combine to generate low wind chills.  This will result in frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken.  If you…

Flurries/snow showers early Tonight; 0 and subzero lows Overnight; Bitter cold air Monday; Widespread teens and 20s below Monday Night with dangerous wind chills; Wednesday snow chance?

/Issued 3:37 PM CST, Saturday, December 29th, 2012/

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

There's a weak cold front moving southeast through the Northland Today, this front kept some flurries and snow showers going in our area, but accumulations if any have been very minimal.  High temperatures were in the teens to lower 20s with winds out of the southwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest Today while an upper trough moves east into the Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -6 to -10C in Western and Southern Minnesota to -12 to -16C in Central and Northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  High.

Tonight (December 29th)

Scattered snow showers and flurries will persist This Evening, and then mainly dry for the Overnight hours.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are …

A little more snow Tonight-Saturday; Greatest amounts northeast of Duluth; 2 shots of arctic air for next week.

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/Issued 4:03 PM CST, Friday, December 28th, 2012/

-Snow depth map valid the Morning of December 28, 2012 per Midwest Regional Climate Center. 

Some decent snow depths showing up in Northeast Minnesota, especially along the North Shore and into the Arrowhead.  Might be a good weekend to head north to do some skiing or snowmobiling.

















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A couple areas of high pressure were off to our west/north Today while a trough or two covered the Upper Midwest.  Light snow and flurries were common Today, especially around Lake Superior where some heavier snow showers continued as well, especially northeast of Two Harbors.  Snowfall accumulations of 3-8" have been reported along the North Shore of Lake Superior with amounts of 2" or less common over the remainder of the Northland.  Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy Today with high temperatures in the teens and 20s.  Winds were out of the east, north, or west at 5 …

A winter wonderland in parts of the Northland! Powder continues to fall.

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/Issued 11:01 AM CST, Friday, December 28th, 2012/

*Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through Saturday Morning for areas northeast of Duluth.  More information below.

















Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Location:  The Arrowhead of Minnesota including Northern Cook and Northern Lake Counties and the city of Isabella.

Timing:  Until 10 AM Saturday.

Discussion:  Snow showers will continue through Saturday Morning.  An additional 2-5" of accumulation is possible.  Storm total accumulations will vary quite a bit and will range from 3 to as much as 10".

Winds and visibility:  Winds will remain light.  Visibility will drop to under a mile a times due to the falling snow.

Impacts:  Roads and sidewalks will be snow covered and slippery.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Location:  A portion of the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota including Southern Cook County and the cities of Tofte...Lutsen...and Grand Marais.

Timing:  Until 10 …

Some light snow at times into Friday Evening; Minor accumulations for most; Significant amounts for parts of the North and South Shore; LRC January temperature forecast in Today's blog.

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/Issued 3:35 PM CST, Thursday, December 27th, 2012/

-Updated winter weather headlines for the Northland.  A winter weather advisory continues for Southern Lake County MN until Noon Friday.  There's also a new winter weather advisory for Bayfield County WI until Noon Friday.  Be prepared for snow covered roads in the advisory areas.  More details below.

















With January fast approaching, here's what the LRC is forecasting for Duluth, Minnesota.

Mean temperature for January:  13.2F
Average:  10.2F
Departure:  +3.0F

Number of days with a low temperature of 0F or colder:  10

Using the LRC, the warmest period during January looks to be the 8th-13th with another spell of mild temperatures occurring between the 23rd-30th, although the 1st stretch of warmth looks more impressive compared to the one toward the end of the month.

How's the LRC doing for December?

Mean temperature:  15.1F
Thru the 26th:  The average December temperature was 19.7F

Number of days with a low temperature of 0F…

Winter Weather Advisory issued for areas NE of Duluth with several inches of snow likely by Friday.

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/Issued 11:15 AM CST, Thursday, December 27th, 2012/

-NWS hazards map.  Winter Weather Advisory northeast of Duluth and southwest of Grand Marais through early Friday Afternoon.  Use caution if you have travel plans along Highway 61.  More information below.

















Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Location:  A portion of the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota including Southern Lake County and the cities of Two Harbors...Beaver Bay...Silver Bay...and Little Marais.

Timing:  Until Noon Friday.

Discussion:  Light to moderate snowfall is expected into Friday.  2-4" of snow has already accumulated in the advisory area since last night and another 2-4" is possible by Friday.

Total snowfall accumulations:  4-8" by Friday Afternoon, but locally higher amounts are possible in spots.

Impacts:  Roads in the advisory area will be snow covered.

Wind and visibility:  Winds will remain light, but visibility will drop to 1 mile or les…

A little bit of snow at times with minor accumulations through Saturday; Heavier amounts NE of Duluth? Moderating temperatures after Tonight.

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/Issued 4:20 PM CST, Wednesday, December 26th, 2012/

-12z RGEM total precipitation forecast ending at 6 AM Friday, December 28th, 2012.  Heavier precip totals (QPF) is forecast to be in Southern Minnesota and neighboring states.  But, also note the small area of around 0.10" of liquid precip just northeast of Duluth.  With the cold airmass in place, a tenth inch of liquid precip could fluff up to 3-4" of snow.
















 Weather Tidbits:

-Today marked the 3rd time so far this month and for the winter that the low temperature was at or colder than 0F at Duluth, Minnesota.

-Our first subzero low temperature this winter occurred on December 24th vs. December 5th last winter at Duluth, Minnesota.

-Even with the recent cold temperatures, the average monthly temperature for December at Duluth, Minnesota remains above normal.  20.1F thru the 25th and this is 4.6 degrees warmer than average.

-A major severe weather and tornado outbreak took place on Christmas Day in the Southern U.S.  The lat…

Some light snow late Tonight-Monday AM, around 1" for Duluth; Cold and dry Monday PM-Thursday.

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/Issued 4:44 PM CST, Sunday, December 23rd, 2012/

High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

December 16-22, 2012:

12/16:  34F/12 degrees above normal
12/17:  23F/1 degrees above normal
12/18:  26F/5 degrees above normal
12/19:  30F/9 degrees above normal
12/20:  24F/3 degrees above normal
12/21:  20F/1 degrees below normal
12/22:  24F/4 degrees above normal

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

December 16-22, 2012:

12/16:  20F/13 degrees above normal
12/17:  19F/12 degrees above normal
12/18:  15F/9 degrees above normal
12/19:  21F/15 degrees above normal
12/20:  10F/4 degrees above normal
12/21:  2F/3 degrees below normal
12/22:  4F/1 degrees below normal

Precipitation total for December 16-22, 2012:  0.06"
Normal:  0.25"
Departure:  -0.19"

-Temperature departure map for December 16-22, 2012:  Another warm week in the Northland.  Duluth was around 4-5 degrees warmer than average last week.



















-Precipitation departure map for D…

Light snow is in the forecast for late Sunday Night and Christmas Eve Morning, up to an inch accumulation; A chilly pattern ahead with subzero nights during the early-middle part of this upcoming week.

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/Issued 4:09 PM CST, Saturday, December 22nd, 2012/

*12z European Ensemble model forecast for Wednesday Morning, December 26th, 2012.  Yeah that's a cold pattern for the Northland.  Strong low pressure moving northeast toward the Ohio River Valley and high pressure in Southwest Ontario.  A cold northerly flow will be the result in Minnesota.
















...A burst of light snow possible late Sunday Night-Christmas Eve...

Weather Tidbits:

*Still haven't recorded a subzero low temperature this winter at Duluth, Minnesota.  This should change next week with potentially 2-3 nights of below 0 minimum temperatures possible. 

*Last winter produced 15 nights with a low temperature at or below 0F.  So far this winter:  We've had just 1 night with a low temperature of 0F.  Note:  The LRC forecast for December showed us having 6 nights with a low temperature of 0F or colder.

*The last time the low temperature was below zero at Duluth, Minnesota was on March 5th, 2012 (1 below)

Today's Weather …

So this is what average temperatures feel like. LRC high temperature chart for Duluth, MN included in Today's blog; A nice poem about Lezak also in the blog.

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/Issued 3:11 PM CST, Friday, December 21st, 2012/

-Putting the LRC (Lezak Recurring Cycle) to the test.  Here's the HIGH temperature forecast for Duluth, Minnesota.  This chart began on November 18th, 2012, and runs thru January 10th, 2013.  Credit:  Josh Herman for putting the charts and maps together.

Note:  Concentrate on the green line which equals the high temperature trend.  The black line is the average high temp, and the red line-dots represent the actual high temperature for a given date.  You wanna see the green-red meet or get real close to matching up.

There's a few hits, a few close matches, and some periods where the LRC was way off so far in December.

Dec. 8-9, did well.
Dec. 12-13, not too bad.
Dec. 14-16, not too bad.
Dec. 20-21, pretty good.













Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Strong low pressure of 982mb moved into Northern New York This Afternoon while a high pressure ridge of around 1026mb stretched from the Northern …

Winter Storm Warning issued for a portion of the South Shore of Lake Superior; Preliminary snowfall report for Today.

/Issued 4:42 PM CST, Thursday, December 20th, 2012/

Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

Timing:  Until 9 AM Friday.

Location:  Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Hurley...Gile...and Upson.

Discussion:  Snow will continue to fall Tonight and Friday Morning with total storm accumulations ranging from 5-10" with locally higher amounts possible.

Winds:  North to northwest winds at 15 to 30 mph causing areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Visibility:  Half mile to 1 mile on average, but many locations will fall below one quarter mile in blowing and drifting snow, especially on exposed stretches of Highway 2 near Lake Superior and other roads on the Gogebic Range.

Impacts:  Roads will remain snow and ice covered and slippery. 

A winter storm warning for heavy snow and blowing snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause low visibility and drifting snow.  Snow and ice covered roads and dangerous…

Gusty winds and chilly temperatures in the Northland Tonight; Accumulating snow lingers in parts of NW Wisconsin; Near average temps and dry this weekend; Will it be a snowy January? CPC's monthly outlook included in Today's blog.

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/Issued 3:31 PM CST, Thursday, December 20th, 2012/

*500mb 12 hour height change map per SPC meso-analysis.  Quite the storm over the Southern Great Lakes Today.  Very impressive height falls with this storm, as much as 270 meters!















*Surface map for 3 PM on 12/20/12.  Deep low pressure of around 984mb centered very close to Chicago, Illinois late This Afternoon.  The black lines represent the isobars, whenever you see them wrapped up so tight on this type of map, you know it's going to be windy.



















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

The big weather story Today is the massive blizzard that hit Iowa, parts of Illinois, and Wisconsin.  A very strong area of low pressure of 984mb was centered near Chicago, Illinois as of 3 PM.  The northwestern edge of this storm brought some measurable snow to portions of Northwest Wisconsin Today, otherwise skies were partly sunny to overcast Today with a wide range in temperatures from the low to mid teens in N…

A glancing blow! Several inches of snow for parts of NW Wisconsin late Tonight-Friday AM; A dangerous blizzard farther south.

/Issued 5:07 PM CST, Wednesday, December 19th, 2012/

Weather Tidbits:

-The average December temperature (thru the 18th) at Duluth, Minnesota:  23.2F which is 6.5 degrees warmer than normal.  A pretty good chance that December will finish with a temperature warmer than the average for the month.

-So far this month there's been 13 with at least a trace of snow at Duluth, Minnesota.

-Thru December 19th:  9.6" of snow has fallen at Duluth, Minnesota which is 0.8" below average.  For the season, were at 20.9" which is 5.6" below average.  Note:  Last year at this time we had only 7.1" of snow for the season.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 996mb was centered along the Kansas-Oklahoma border as of 4 PM.  A cold front was moving into Northwest Minnesota with a weaker surface low of 1014mb located in Northwestern Minnesota.  Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy Today with some flurries and snow showers,…

Winter Weather Advisory issued for parts of Northwest Wisconsin.

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/Issued 1:05 PM CST, Wednesday, December 19th, 2012/

-NWS hazards map.  Winter Weather Advisory for Eastern parts of Northwest Wisconsin, including Hayward, Park Falls, and points north to Ashland and Hurley.  More details below...


















Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

Timing:  3 AM Thursday until 9 AM Friday.

Location:  Portions of the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin including the Counties of Ashland and Iron and the cities of Ashland, Butternut, Gile, Hurley, Montreal, and Upson.

Discussion:  Snow will develop after Midnight Tonight and will continue into Friday Morning.  The snow could be enhanced closer to Lake Superior and along the Gogebic range because of north-northwest winds coming off Lake Superior.

Winds:  North winds will increase with gusts to 30 mph for Thursday and Friday.

Total snowfall accumulations:  5-7" by Friday Morning with locally higher amounts possible.

Impacts:  Roads will become snow covered and sl…

A light dusting of snow Tonight/Wednesday; Big snowstorm well to our south Wed-Fri; Cool temps-but nothing arctic thru Christmas.

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/Issued 3:45 PM CST, Tuesday, December 18th, 2012/

-The surface map below screams blizzard potential on Thursday from Central/Eastern Iowa, to Southern and Eastern Wisconsin with deep low pressure centered in Western Missouri at 6am Thursday.  The black lines are the isobars, the closer together they are, the stronger the winds.  (Source, 12z European Ensemble model)
















-Big time trouble ahead for Wednesday-Friday for much of the Central Plains into the Central Great Lakes as a major winter storm dumps 6+" of snow along with very strong winds of greater than 30 mph from Kansas and Nebraska, northeast to Wisconsin and Michigan.  Blizzard warning and watch has already been issued for Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the NWS upgrade to a blizzard warning farther northeast, including portions of Iowa and Wisconsin.













-Storm track for mid to late week per HPC.  Kansas/Oklahoma border Wednesday Evening to Central Illinois Thursday Morning to Lake Hu…