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Showing posts from November, 2012

December opens and ends warm with a shot of cold, maybe arctic air mid-month. Fog-light freezing drizzle Tonight; A few rainshowers Saturday; Mild temps thru next Monday.

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/Issued 2:33 PM CST, Friday, November 30th, 2012/

-The Climate Prediction Center released it's updated December 2012 outlook Today.  Gone is the potential for below average temps in the Dakotas and Minnesota.  This new outlook is kind of similar to the LRC's December forecast.  I think were in for a roller coaster ride in terms of temperatures here in Minnesota.  The coldest air will proabably occur during the middle of the month and into Christmas week.


















-Updated precipitation outlook for December 2012 per Climate Prediction Center.






















Weather Tidbits:

*November 2012 will finish with below average precipitation at Duluth, Minnesota which will be the 5th month in a row to do so. (July-November)

*November 2012 will end up with an above average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.  Will this be the start of a new streak of months that have above average temps? Remember last time we put together 15 consecutive months where the average monthly temperature was above normal (July 20…

New LRC data for December and an updated winter snowfall total for Duluth in Today's blog. Little bit of snow or freezing drizzle Tonight; Rain showers/mixed showers for Saturday?

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/Issued 4:00 PM CST, Thursday, November 29th, 2012/

-Meso Analysis plot of near freezing (32F) surface temperatures from 3 PM Today.  The purple dash line represents the 32 degree temperature line.  It lines up quite well with snow cover vs. non-snow cover areas in Minnesota Today.  (Source, Storm Prediction Center)















-Here's a visible satellite image from 2 PM CST Today.  There's little to no snow on the ground in Southern Minnesota, but if you go north of Interstate 94 in Central Minnesota you will run into a snow pack of at least a few inches deep.  South of the snow pack, temperatures soared into the 40s Today, while snow covered areas stayed in the 20s to around 30 degrees with teens in far Northern Minnesota.
















Drought worsening in Minnesota.

Drought Monitor for Minnesota as of November 27th, 2012
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

*97% of the state is in Moderate Drought, up from 96% last week.
*83% of the state is in Severe Drought, up from 43% last week.
*25% of the state …

Has fall 2012 been that much different than fall 2011? Answers in Today's blog. November likely to finish with a monthly temperature surplus at Duluth.

/Issued 2:52 PM CST, Wednesday, November 28th, 2012/

*Breaking down the numbers for Fall 2012 and Fall 2011 (September-November)

Has it been colder this fall compared to last?  Snowier than last fall?  Lets take a look.

Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location data)

Fall 2012 thru November 28th:

Number of days with a high temperature colder than 32F:  7

Number of days with a low temperature colder than 32F:  36
Number of days with a low temperature of 0F or colder:  1

Total precipitation:  3.51"
Average:  8.88"
Departure from average:  -5.37"

Total snowfall:  11.3"
Average:  14.4"
Departure from average:  -3.1"

Fall 2011, September 1st-November 30th:

Number of days with a high temperature colder than 32F:  7

Number of days with a low temperature colder than 32F:  35

Total precipitation:  3.24"

Total snowfall:  2.4"

Bottom line:

-Were running about one quarter inch ahead of last fall when it comes to precipitation.

-Around 9.0" more snow this fall co…

Top 10 snowiest cities in Today's blog, Duluth made the list; Snow report from Today; Cold Tonight, below zero for some.

/Issued 3:25 PM CST, Tuesday, November 27th, 2012/

*Snowfall report for November 27, 2012*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield County)  4.0"
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis County)  3.0"
10 N of Esko, MN (St. Louis County)  3.0"
Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  2.6" Official NWS total
Hoyt Lakes, MN (St. Louis County)  1.5"
Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)  1.5"
Cook, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0"
Brule, WI (Douglas County)  1.0"
Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0"
7 NW of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  0.7"

Weather Tidbits:

-Fall 2012 (September-November) 27 days (so far) with a trace or more of snow at Duluth, Minnesota.  Fall 2011 had 17 days.

-Today is the 6th consecutive day with at least a trace of snow at Duluth, Minnesota.  (Nov. 22-27)  Also, 4 of the past 6 days has had at least 1.0" of snow.

-Unofficial stats:  With the 2.6" of snow at Duluth, Minnesota Today...This brings our monthly snowfall total t…

A little more light snow and flurries for Tonight and Tuesday; Chilly temps into mid-week; Warming up later this week/weekend.

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/Issued 4:29 PM CST, Monday, November 26th, 2012/

*18.6% of the U.S. is covered by snow as of November 26, 2012.  This is up from 10.0% at this time last year.  (NOHRSC)












*The map above is from 11/26/12.  Map on the bottom was from 11/26/11.
















High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

November 18-24, 2012:

11/18:  53F/19 degrees above normal
11/19:  53F/19 degrees above normal
11/20:  47F/14 degrees above normal
11/21:  51F/19 degrees above normal
11/22:  52F/20 degrees above normal (Record high tied)
11/23:  26F/5 degrees below normal
11/24:  20F/11 degrees below normal

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

November 18-24, 2012:

11/18:  38F/17 degrees above normal
11/19:  37F/17 degrees above normal
11/20:  28F/8 degrees above normal
11/21:  31F/12 degrees above normal
11/22:  25F/7 degrees above normal
11/23:  12F/6 degrees below normal
11/24:  0F/17 degrees below normal

*No surprise here, temperatures during the week of Thanksgiving were w…

Below zero temps in parts of the Northland This Morning; Some more snow Tonight; A chilly weather pattern into the middle of next week.

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/Issued 4:01 PM CST, Saturday, November 24th, 2012/

-Low temperature map from This Morning.  Widespread single digit and sub-zero temperatures in Minnesota last night.  The legend is on the right.  (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
















*Bitter cold Overnight lows in the Northland*

Low temperature report for November 24, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  1F
International Falls, MN:  -7F
Hibbing, MN:  -5F
Sky Harbor, MN:  9F
Two Harbors, MN:  1F
Silver Bay, MN:  -2F
Ely, MN:  -4F
Orr, MN:  -2F
Cook, MN:  -6F
Crane Lake, MN:  -2F
Eveleth, MN:  -2F
Bigfork, MN:  0F
Moose Lake, MN:  0F
Hinckley, MN:  0F
Superior, WI:  3F
Siren, WI:  1F
3 E of Wright, MN:  -3F
Babbitt, MN:  -10F
Floodwood, MN:  -5F
Kabetogama, MN:  -3F
3 E of Orr, MN:  -8F
2 S of Tower, MN:  -5F

Weather Tidbits:

*Low temperature of 1 above at the Duluth Airport on November 24th, 2012 is the coldest minimum temperature since March 5th (-1F)

*In Fall 2011 I couldn't find any temperatur…

A recap of Thursday Night's snowfall in Today's blog; Very cold temperatures Tonight; Another shot at some light snow Saturday Night; A chilly weekend ahead.

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/Issued at 3:21 PM CST, Friday, November 23rd, 2012/

-Snowfall map for November 22-23, 2012 ending This Morning.  Legend is on the right side of the map.  (Map from the Midwest Regional Climate Center)
















A significant snowfall hit portions of the Northland Thanksgiving Night and Friday, November 22-23, 2012.

*Snowfall report for November 22-23, 2012*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Bayfield County:

Cornucopia, WI:  12.0"
5 S of Herbster, WI:  12.0"
Oulu, WI:  11.0"
Bayfield, WI:  8.8"

Douglas County:

Hawthorne, WI:  12.0"
Maple, WI:  10.5"
Poplar, WI:  10.5"
Gordon, WI:  8.0"

Ashland County:

2 NW of Mellen, WI:  9.5"
Ashland, WI:  6.5"

Iron County:

Upson, WI:  7.0"

Lake County:

Finland, MN:  10.0"
7 NW of Two Harbors, MN:  7.0"
Silver Bay, MN:  3.5"

St. Louis County:

5 N of Virginia, MN:  6.0"
3 E of Payne, MN:  6.0"
3 E of Island Lake, MN:  5.8"
Babbitt, MN:  5.5"
6 NW of Duluth, MN…

Thanksgiving Night snow update.

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/Issued at 4:27 PM CST, Thursday, November 22, 2012/

Weather impacts for Tonight in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin:

-Snow and falling temperatures into the teens and 20s.  Some mixed precipitation possible in some locations early This Evening before the switch over to snow occurs. 

-Winds increasing out of the NW at 15 to 30 mph.  Wind chills (feels like temperature) dropping into the single digits and teens.

-Roads will become slick and hazardous during the night and into Friday Morning.  Use extreme caution if you have travel plans.

-HRRR model snowfall forecast for Tonight.  The green colors are snow totals of 3-5".  Yellow color represents snow totals of 6".  The legend is on the bottom of this map. 

For Duluth and Superior:   The HRRR model is showing about 1-2" of snow Tonight.  East of the Twin Ports, a swath of 3-5" could fall.

















-NWS hazards map.  Winter Weather Advisory continues for Tonight north of Duluth, and also in parts of Northwest Wiscon…

Winter Weather Headlines in effect in Northern Minnesota for late Thursday PM-Friday AM; Some fog possible Tonight; Mild on Turkey Day; Sharply colder with gusty winds Thursday Night-Friday.

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/Issued at 4:51 PM CST, Wednesday, November 21st, 2012/

-NWS hazards map.  Winter Weather Advisory north of Duluth for late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning.  Gale Warning covers parts of Lake Superior for Thursday Night.  This will be a NW gale, so the biggest waves will occur east of the Twin Ports.

















*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter weather advisory has been issued for Northern Minnesota.

Start time:  3 PM CST Thursday.
Expiration time:  6 AM CST Friday.

Counties included in the advisory are:

Koochiching MN
Itasca MN
Northern Cass MN
Central and Northern St. Louis MN
Lake MN
Cook MN

Some cities included in the advisory:

International Falls...Bigfork...Grand Rapids...Cass Lake...Walker...Hibbing...Ely...Orr...Crane Lake...Two Harbors...Silver Bay...Finland...Isabella...Lutsen...and Grand Marais.

Discussion:

A mixture of rain and snow is forecast to develop Thursday Afternoon or early Thursday Evening.  This mixture of precipi…

*Alert* Snow is in the forecast Thanksgiving Evening-Friday AM, a couple inches could fall; LRC forecast for December.

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/Issued 3:35 PM CST, Tuesday, November 20th, 2012/

-Snow? Yes, snow is in the forecast later this week.  Several inches of it could accumulate Thursday Night, especially in Northern Minnesota and possibly in far Northern Wisconsin.  The HPC has outlined those areas in a Slight Risk for at least 4" of snow Thursday Night.  More details below...
















 Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC).  Ever hear of it? If not, I'll give you a brief description of what it is.  Every fall a unique weather pattern develops that repeats itself throughout the year.  The cycle length varies each year, sometimes it can be as short as 40 days, other times it can be over 50 days. 

This winter for the 1st time ever I will be posting what the LRC is forecasting for Duluth, I'm actually going to start doing this Today.

Big thanks goes out to Josh Herman, he's the one that got me into the LRC 2 years ago.  Josh is an LRC guru and a great guy!  If you're on Twitter, give Josh a follow @OSNW3.

*Looking ahead…

Mild temperatures thru Thanksgiving Day; Windy and colder Thursday Night-Friday with possible snow showers.

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/Issued 3:30 PM CST, Monday, November 19th, 2012/

-Well, the 12z EUROPEAN model from November 19th is showing quite a storm for the middle of next week, this map is for next Wednesday, November 28th, 2012 and shows a tightly wrapped up low centered between Chicago, Illinois and Milwaukee, Wisconsin.  Should this storm materialize and track like that, then the heaviest corridor of snow would likely setup from Southern Minnesota into Central Wisconsin.  Word of caution, this potential storm is over a week away and the track of the storm, the timing, and strength will likely change, so stay tuned! This is more of a heads up then anything else, just keep the November 27-29 time period in the back of your mind for potential trouble from the weather.















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold front has moved into Central Minnesota as of 3 PM.  A few rain showers and sprinkles have been occurring Today ahead of this front in Northeast Minnesota and Nor…