Friday, November 30, 2012

December opens and ends warm with a shot of cold, maybe arctic air mid-month. Fog-light freezing drizzle Tonight; A few rainshowers Saturday; Mild temps thru next Monday.

/Issued 2:33 PM CST, Friday, November 30th, 2012/

-The Climate Prediction Center released it's updated December 2012 outlook Today.  Gone is the potential for below average temps in the Dakotas and Minnesota.  This new outlook is kind of similar to the LRC's December forecast.  I think were in for a roller coaster ride in terms of temperatures here in Minnesota.  The coldest air will proabably occur during the middle of the month and into Christmas week.


















-Updated precipitation outlook for December 2012 per Climate Prediction Center.






















Weather Tidbits:

*November 2012 will finish with below average precipitation at Duluth, Minnesota which will be the 5th month in a row to do so. (July-November)

*November 2012 will end up with an above average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.  Will this be the start of a new streak of months that have above average temps? Remember last time we put together 15 consecutive months where the average monthly temperature was above normal (July 2011-September 2012)

*Updated outlook for December 2012:  Equal chances for above, below, or normal temperatures and precipitation for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  This is a change from the previous outlook which had the Northland in below average temperatures during December.  (Source, Climate Prediction Center)

*LRC December 2012 forecast for Duluth, Minnesota*

Average monthly temperature:  16.0F
Average:  14.8F
Departure from average:  +1.2 degrees

Total snowfall:  15.0"
Average:  17.7"
Departure from average:  -2.7"

Number of days with snow:  11
Number of days with a low temperature at or colder than 0F:  5

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A warm front stretched from the Western Dakotas to Southeast Nebraska late Today.  The Northland remained on the cool side of this front on this final day of November 2012, net result from this was another day of low clouds along with some patchy fog, light freezing drizzle, snow showers and flurries.  High temperatures were in the mid 20s to lower 30s with east or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A westerly flow continues Today across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery.  One disturbance is moving through the Ohio Valley and Southern Great Lakes while a new one heads east through the Northern Rockies Today.  850mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from +2 to +4C in Western and Southern Minnesota to 0 to -6C in Northern and Eastern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  Above average.

Tonight (November 30th)

Skies will remain mostly cloudy with patchy light freezing drizzle, fog, and snow flurries.  Temperatures will remain nearly steady in the 20s and lower 30s.  Winds will be out of the south or east at up to 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (December 1st)

An area of low pressure will pass west/north of our area this period while a warm front and cold front track through the Northland.  Some rain showers or mixed rain, sleet, and snow showers should affect some parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, especially from Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Evening.  Precipitation that does develop shouldn't be that heavy, and no significant travel problems are expected.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with lows Saturday Night in the 20s to lower 30s.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the south, east, or west at 10 to 15 mph.  Winds Tomorrow Night will shift to the north/west at 10 to 20 mph.

-Precipitation forecast valid until 6 PM CST Saturday.  Any rain or mixed precipitation that does occur won't amount to much with precip totals under 0.10" in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.















Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Above average.

Sunday through Tuesday (December 2nd-4th)

Sunday looks dry and pleasant for early December as high temperatures get into the 30s and lower 40s.  A strong low pressure system tracks NW of our area early next week with two cold fronts moving through the Northland on Monday.  A few rain showers are possible during the day Monday, and then we could see a few snow flakes Monday Night-Tuesday as chillier air moves in.  Highs on Monday will be in the 30s in far Northern Minnesota and the 40s and 50s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be in the 20s.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 30s.  Lows Monday Night will be in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Average.

(December 5th-10th)

The middle of next week continues to look pretty quiet.  We may see some changes occur from late next week into the following week, or from the 6th-10th with a bit of snow or mixed precipitation possible at times in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Near to above average temperatures are forecast to continue through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle possible.  Temperatures nearly steady between 27 to 32.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle possible during the Morning.  A few Afternoon rain showers possible.  High 34 to 39.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  A few rain showers possible early.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 37 to 42.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  Unseasonably mild.   High 43 to 48.

.Monday Night...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  West winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  28
Low:  14

Sunrise Saturday:  7:34 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:22 PM CST

Tim





Thursday, November 29, 2012

New LRC data for December and an updated winter snowfall total for Duluth in Today's blog. Little bit of snow or freezing drizzle Tonight; Rain showers/mixed showers for Saturday?

/Issued 4:00 PM CST, Thursday, November 29th, 2012/

-Meso Analysis plot of near freezing (32F) surface temperatures from 3 PM Today.  The purple dash line represents the 32 degree temperature line.  It lines up quite well with snow cover vs. non-snow cover areas in Minnesota Today.  (Source, Storm Prediction Center)















-Here's a visible satellite image from 2 PM CST Today.  There's little to no snow on the ground in Southern Minnesota, but if you go north of Interstate 94 in Central Minnesota you will run into a snow pack of at least a few inches deep.  South of the snow pack, temperatures soared into the 40s Today, while snow covered areas stayed in the 20s to around 30 degrees with teens in far Northern Minnesota.
















Drought worsening in Minnesota.

Drought Monitor for Minnesota as of November 27th, 2012
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

*97% of the state is in Moderate Drought, up from 96% last week.
*83% of the state is in Severe Drought, up from 43% last week.
*25% of the state is in Extreme Drought, unchanged from last week.
















Drought Monitor for Wisconsin as of November 27th, 2012
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

*61% of the state is in Moderate Drought, up from 53% last week.
*25% of the state is in Severe Drought, up from 15% last week.
















Weather Tidbits:

-The area of Minnesota covered by severe drought has increased dramatically between late August (19%) and late November (83%)

-New data is in from the LRC.  53.6" of snow is now forecast for Duluth, Minnesota this winter (December-February) Average is 49.5".  Source:  Josh Herman.  LRC.

-Looks like December 2012 could be an up and down month when it comes to temperatures at Duluth, Minnesota.  Per LRC:  Temperature departure from average is as follows:   

Dec. 1-14:  +2.5 degrees.  Dec. 15-28:  -3.3 degrees.  Dec. 29-31:  +7.3 degrees.   

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A huge contrast in temperatures across Minnesota Today with arctic high pressure to our north and a developing warm front to our south.  Highs ranged from the teens and 20s in Northern Minnesota to the lower 30s in Northwest Wisconsin with 40s common in Southern Minnesota.  Skies were mostly cloudy Today and there's been some snow flurries at times in some parts of the Northland.  Winds were out of the east or northeast at 5 to 15 mph with stronger gusts near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Seeing a west to east flow in the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery with an upper level disturbance heading east through the Dakotas.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +2 to +6C in Southern Minnesota to 0 to -14C in Central and Northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  Above average.

Tonight (November 29th)

Expect some snow showers and flurries and maybe a little light freezing drizzle in the Northland Tonight as skies remain mostly cloudy.  A warm front well to our west/south combined with warm air advection will be responsible in generating the precip Tonight.  Also, an onshore wind combined with an arctic airmass just north of Lake Superior could lead to some lake effect snow showers Tonight, especially along the North Shore from French River and Two Harbors, northeast to Silver Bay, Lutsen, Tofte, and Grand Marais.  Lows Tonight will range from the single digits and teens in Northern Minnesota to the 20s in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will be out of the east at 10 to 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (November 30th)

High pressure will move off to our NE this period with a warm front staying put to our west/south.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with areas of light freezing drizzle, snow showers, and flurries possible.  Highs on Friday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Friday Night in the 20s to lower 30s.  Winds will be out of the east at 10 to 15 mph.

Note:  Total snowfall accumulations of 1-3" are possible Tonight and Friday along the North Shore of Lake Superior, and also along the Minnesota-Ontario border.

-18z RAP model precipitation forecast, ending at 6 AM Friday.  Liquid precip totals of 0.05-0.10" along the North Shore of Lake Superior could fluff up to a 1-3" snowfall Tonight.















Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Above average.

Saturday through Monday (December 1st-3rd)

An area of low pressure along with a warm front and cold front is set to move through our area from Saturday into early Sunday...This system could bring some showers of rain or snow to the Northland on Saturday.  Looks dry on Sunday, and then will look to Monday for when the next weather system moves through our area, a few rain showers could occur during the day Monday with flurries/snow showers for Monday Night.

High temperatures Saturday through Monday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the 20s to lower 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Average.

(December 4th-9th)

Next Tuesday looks cooler as deep low pressure moves through Central Canada, flurries/snow showers could wrap around this system and affect the Northland on the 4th.  Mid-week looks generally dry.  The period from the 6th-9th could bring some snow or mixed precipitation to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Temperatures are forecast to be near to above normal through this period.

-As of November 24th, 2012:  An additional trace to 3" of precipitation is needed to get back to average in Northeast Minnesota.  As much as 3-9" in Northern Minnesota, and about 3-6" in Northwest Wisconsin.  (Source Climate Prediction Center/Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index)
















5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers and flurries at times.  Patchy light freezing drizzle also possible.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy light freezing drizzle possible along with a few snow showers or flurries.  High 28 to 33.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Temperatures holding nearly steady between 28 to 33.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain showers possible during the Afternoon.  High 33 to 38.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain showers possible, mainly during the Evening.  Low  27 to 32.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 37 to 42.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Monday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  28
Low:  15

Sunrise Friday:  7:33 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   4:22 PM CST

Tim


Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Has fall 2012 been that much different than fall 2011? Answers in Today's blog. November likely to finish with a monthly temperature surplus at Duluth.

/Issued 2:52 PM CST, Wednesday, November 28th, 2012/

*Breaking down the numbers for Fall 2012 and Fall 2011 (September-November)

Has it been colder this fall compared to last?  Snowier than last fall?  Lets take a look.

Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location data)

Fall 2012 thru November 28th:

Number of days with a high temperature colder than 32F:  7

Number of days with a low temperature colder than 32F:  36
Number of days with a low temperature of 0F or colder:  1

Total precipitation:  3.51"
Average:  8.88"
Departure from average:  -5.37"

Total snowfall:  11.3"
Average:  14.4"
Departure from average:  -3.1"

Fall 2011, September 1st-November 30th:

Number of days with a high temperature colder than 32F:  7

Number of days with a low temperature colder than 32F:  35

Total precipitation:  3.24"

Total snowfall:  2.4"

Bottom line:

-Were running about one quarter inch ahead of last fall when it comes to precipitation.

-Around 9.0" more snow this fall compared to last fall.

-Really haven't seen much difference in the number of days at or below freezing for both daytime highs and nighttime lows in Duluth this fall vs. last fall, but the shots of cold air have been stronger this fall compared to last.

Weather Tidbits:

*Even with the recent cold snap, the average monthly temperature for November 1-27, 2012 at Duluth, Minnesota remains above normal by 2.1 degrees (31.7F)  Looks like November will finish with a temperature surplus with just 2 days remaining in the month.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Skies were partly to mostly cloudy Today with some Morning snow showers and flurries.  Quite a wide range in temperatures with teens far Northeast Minnesota to the upper 20s and lower 30s across the rest of our area.  Winds were out of the south or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A strong NW flow covered the Upper Midwest Today with a 160 knot jet off to our north in Western Ontario per RAP model analysis, this jet stream is separating arctic air in Canada to building warmth in the Plains.  850mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from-12 to -20C in Ontario to -4 to -10C in Northern/Eastern Minnesota to 0 to -2C in Western/Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  Above Average.

Tonight (November 28th)

A cold front will drop south through our area Tonight with high pressure moving into Manitoba.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with low temperatures ranging from the single digits and teens in Northern Minnesota to the 20s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will shift from the southwest to the north/east at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (November 29th)

Strong high pressure will be centered to our north during this period with a stationary front well to our west/south.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.  A few snow showers and flurries are possible, mainly in Northern Minnesota for Thursday Night.  Highs on Thursday will range from the teens in Northern Minnesota to the 20s and lower 30s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the teens and 20s.  East winds are expected this period at 10 to 15 mph.  Note:  E/NE surface winds coming off Lake Superior could generate a few lake effect snow showers and flurries on Thursday along the North and South Shore.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Above Average.

Friday through Sunday (November 30th-December 2nd)

A warm front west and south of the Northland on Friday will make a move toward us on Saturday as low pressure moves through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  This system exits to our east on Sunday.  Areas of light precipitation is possible at times Friday into early Sunday in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  The type of precipitation we see depends on the surface temperature, so for now anything from rain, freezing rain/drizzle, and perhaps even some snow is a possibility, whatever does fall shouldn't amount too very much though.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the 20s and 30s.  Saturday and Sunday we warm into the 30s with a few 40s even possible.  Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night are forecast to be in the 20s and 30s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Average.

(December 3rd-8th)

Another Pacific system passes west-north of our area next Monday/Tuesday (3rd-4th)  A few rain showers are possible on Monday with wrap-around flurries or snow showers on Tuesday.  Looks mainly dry for the middle of next week (5th-6th) A new system could bring some snow to the area between the 7th-8th.  Above average temperatures on the 3rd will drop toward average levels for the remainder of this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph, becoming north Overnight.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  A few flurries possible.  High 21 to 26.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 28 to 33.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 28.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  A few rain or snow showers possible.  High 32 to 36.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  A few rain or snow showers possible.  Low 27 to 32.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 37 to 42.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  29
Low:  15

Sunrise Thursday:  7:31 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim





Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Top 10 snowiest cities in Today's blog, Duluth made the list; Snow report from Today; Cold Tonight, below zero for some.

/Issued 3:25 PM CST, Tuesday, November 27th, 2012/

*Snowfall report for November 27, 2012*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield County)  4.0"
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis County)  3.0"
10 N of Esko, MN (St. Louis County)  3.0"
Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  2.6" Official NWS total
Hoyt Lakes, MN (St. Louis County)  1.5"
Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)  1.5"
Cook, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0"
Brule, WI (Douglas County)  1.0"
Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0"
7 NW of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  0.7"

Weather Tidbits:

-Fall 2012 (September-November) 27 days (so far) with a trace or more of snow at Duluth, Minnesota.  Fall 2011 had 17 days.

-Today is the 6th consecutive day with at least a trace of snow at Duluth, Minnesota.  (Nov. 22-27)  Also, 4 of the past 6 days has had at least 1.0" of snow.

-Unofficial stats:  With the 2.6" of snow at Duluth, Minnesota Today...This brings our monthly snowfall total to 10.1" and our seasonal snowfall total to 11.3".  Both numbers are a little below where we should be at this time of year.

-Record high temperature of 60 degrees on this date in 1998 at Duluth, Minnesota.

Top 10 snowiest cities according to an article by dailybeast.com

1:  Syracuse, New York.  103.1"
2:  Rochester, New York:  88.3"
3:  Buffalo, New York:  85.7"
4:  Duluth, Minnesota:  82.6"
5:  Flagstaff, Arizona:  81.1"
6:  Erie, Pennsylvania:  78.7"
7:  Casper, Wyoming:  76.2"
8:  Anchorage, Alaska:  72.7"
9:  Grand Rapids, Michigan:  72.3"
10:  Portland, Maine:  70.6"

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold front has been moving southeast across our area Today with some snow showers and flurries.  There's also been smaller bands of moderate to heavy snow which have occurred Today, especially on the north side of Duluth, on up toward the Iron Range.  Most of us saw snowfall accumulations of less than an inch Today, but a few locations did pick up a few inches of snow under those heavier bands.  High temperatures were in the 20s to around 30 degrees with southwest or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A northwest flow continued in the Upper Midwest Today with the latest disturbance to affect the Northland starting to exit to the east late Today per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -2 to -4C across the Southern half of Minnesota to -6 to -10C in Northern Minnesota.  Note:  Seeing quite a temperature gradient Today with late day 850mb temperatures of -22C in Western Ontario to +6C in Central Kansas to +16C in Central Colorado.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence:  Above Average.

Tonight (November 27th)

A cold front will exit our area to the south/east This Evening with high pressure building in behind the front.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with Evening snow showers and flurries.  Low temperatures will range from the single digits below to low teens above zero with winds out of the north or west at 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (November 28th)

High pressure retreats to the east as Tonight's cold front stalls and begins to lift back toward the N/NE as a warm front.  Partly cloudy skies are expected this period with highs in the 20s to lower 30s.  Low temps Wednesday Night will range from the single digits in Northern Minnesota to the lower 20s in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will be out of the southwest or north at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Above Average.

Thursday through Saturday (November 29th-December 1st)

High pressure will set-up to our north during this period with a warm front off to our west/south.  Warmer air will be lifting into the Upper Midwest later this week, but with the snow pack currently over the Northland and the warm air going over this snow pack, we could see the development of some low clouds, fog, and maybe even some drizzle (freezing?) from Thursday Night into Saturday.  There could also be a few snow showers Thursday and Friday and mixed showers on Saturday.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the teens and 20s on Thursday, warming to the 20s and 30s for Friday and Saturday.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the teens and 20s.  Lows Friday Night will mainly be in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast - Confidence:  Average.

(December 2nd-7th)

A low pressure system could affect the Northland early next week (3rd-5th)  The track, strength, and timing of this system remains uncertain, but right now it doesn't look like it would be a big storm with just light amounts of rain or snow in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Near to above average temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Snow showers or flurries This Evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 2 to 7.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 23 to 28.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 21 to 26.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 27 to 32.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 23 to 26.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  29
Low:  16

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:30 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim








Monday, November 26, 2012

A little more light snow and flurries for Tonight and Tuesday; Chilly temps into mid-week; Warming up later this week/weekend.

/Issued 4:29 PM CST, Monday, November 26th, 2012/

*18.6% of the U.S. is covered by snow as of November 26, 2012.  This is up from 10.0% at this time last year.  (NOHRSC)












*The map above is from 11/26/12.  Map on the bottom was from 11/26/11.
















High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

November 18-24, 2012:

11/18:  53F/19 degrees above normal
11/19:  53F/19 degrees above normal
11/20:  47F/14 degrees above normal
11/21:  51F/19 degrees above normal
11/22:  52F/20 degrees above normal (Record high tied)
11/23:  26F/5 degrees below normal
11/24:  20F/11 degrees below normal

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

November 18-24, 2012:

11/18:  38F/17 degrees above normal
11/19:  37F/17 degrees above normal
11/20:  28F/8 degrees above normal
11/21:  31F/12 degrees above normal
11/22:  25F/7 degrees above normal
11/23:  12F/6 degrees below normal
11/24:  0F/17 degrees below normal

*No surprise here, temperatures during the week of Thanksgiving were way above average in Minnesota until Friday-Saturday, the days after Turkey day.



















Precipitation total for 11/18-11/24, 2012:  0.46"
Average:  0.47"
Departure from average:  -0.01"

*Precipitation totals last week were near to above average in Northeast Minnesota, the rest of the state saw far less precipitation.



















Low temperature report for November 26th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  3F
International Falls, MN:  2F
Brainerd, MN:  5F
Hibbing, MN:  -3F
Sky Harbor, MN:  9F
Two Harbors, MN:  1F
Orr, MN:  0F
Cook, MN:  0F
Eveleth, MN:  1F
Bigfork, MN:  -2F
Grand Rapids, MN:  0F
Longville, MN:  1F
Pine River, MN:  0F
Cloquet, MN:  1F
Superior, WI:  4F
Siren, WI:  5F
3 E of Wright, MN:  -3F
Northome, MN:  -4F
Embarrass, MN:  1F
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  1F
Winter, WI:  3F
Gordon, WI:  3F

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A very cold late November day as high temperatures only made it into the teens to around 20 degrees.  Skies were partly to mostly sunny with winds out of the west or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A northwest flow was in place Today across the Upper Midwest.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from -10 to -16C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term - Confidence...Above Average.

Tonight (November 26th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with a low pressure system and cold front off to our NW.  Warm air advection out ahead of this system will likely be able to squeeze out at least a little bit of light snow and flurries in parts of our area Tonight.  Low temperatures will be in the single digits and teens with winds out of the south or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (November 27th)

Low pressure and a cold front will be moving through our area on Tuesday, this system exits to our east for Tuesday Night.  Some light snow and flurries will likely occur at times on Tuesday in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with mainly dry conditions returning for Tuesday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and lower 30s with low temperatures Tuesday Night in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.  Winds will shift from the southwest to the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Note:  Total snowfall accumulations of 1-2" are possible Tonight/Tuesday, mainly in Northern Minnesota...Including the Iron Range, Arrowhead, and North Shore.

Extended Forecast - Confidence:  Above Average.

Wednesday through Friday (November 28th-30th)

High pressure will be centered to our north-northeast from mid to late week with a developing warm front to our west/south later this week.  There might be some light overrunning snow or mixed precipitation in parts of the Northland, especially Thursday Night and Friday, but right now this doesn't look like a very big deal.  High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the teens and 20s, warming to the 20s and 30s for Thursday and Friday.  Low temperatures in the single digits below to low teens above zero Wednesday Night will moderate into the teens and lower 20s for Thursday Night.

Long Range Forecast- Confidence:  Average.

(December 1st-6th)

Near to above normal temperatures are forecast through this period with a persistent west or west-southwest flow in place across the Upper Midwest.  Multiple low pressure systems will likely move through our area from the 1st-6th, but none of them look to be very potent at this time with just minimal amounts of rain or snow expected in our area.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few snow showers or flurries possible at times.  Low 7 to 12.  Wind southwest around 10 mph.

.Tuesday...  Snow showers and flurries at times.  Accumulations under 1".  Considerable cloudiness.  High 28 to 33.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 23 to 28.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 27 to 32.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  30
Low:  16

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:29 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:24 PM CST

Tim




Saturday, November 24, 2012

Below zero temps in parts of the Northland This Morning; Some more snow Tonight; A chilly weather pattern into the middle of next week.

/Issued 4:01 PM CST, Saturday, November 24th, 2012/ 

-Low temperature map from This Morning.  Widespread single digit and sub-zero temperatures in Minnesota last night.  The legend is on the right.  (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
















*Bitter cold Overnight lows in the Northland*

Low temperature report for November 24, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  1F
International Falls, MN:  -7F
Hibbing, MN:  -5F
Sky Harbor, MN:  9F
Two Harbors, MN:  1F
Silver Bay, MN:  -2F
Ely, MN:  -4F
Orr, MN:  -2F
Cook, MN:  -6F
Crane Lake, MN:  -2F
Eveleth, MN:  -2F
Bigfork, MN:  0F
Moose Lake, MN:  0F
Hinckley, MN:  0F
Superior, WI:  3F
Siren, WI:  1F
3 E of Wright, MN:  -3F
Babbitt, MN:  -10F
Floodwood, MN:  -5F
Kabetogama, MN:  -3F
3 E of Orr, MN:  -8F
2 S of Tower, MN:  -5F

Weather Tidbits:

*Low temperature of 1 above at the Duluth Airport on November 24th, 2012 is the coldest minimum temperature since March 5th (-1F)

*In Fall 2011 I couldn't find any temperatures that were as cold as what occurred This Morning in Duluth.  In fact, we didn't have a low temperature equal to or colder than 1 above until December 5th when the low temperature fell to 1 below zero.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure was off to our NW Today with a cold front in the Eastern Dakotas.  Seeing a nice temperature gradient across Minnesota Today, ranging from the mid 30s in the Southwest part of the state to the upper teens and low 20s in Northern Minnesota.  Skies were mostly cloudy to partly sunny Today with some light snow and even a little light freezing drizzle at times in Northern Minnesota.  Winds were out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A quick moving, but strong disturbance is dropping SE out of Manitoba Today per water vapor satellite imagery.  Height falls of 60-150 meters were occurring near and ahead of this system across the Northern Plains Today per RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +2 to +4C in far Southwest Minnesota to -0 to -4C in Western, Central, and Southern Minnesota to -6 to -10C in Northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast

Tonight (November 24th)

Forecaster confidence:  Above Average.

Mostly cloudy skies with some light snow and flurries will be found in the Northland Tonight, there could even be a little bit of freezing drizzle.  Strong warm air advection out ahead of the low and frontal boundary to our west will cause the precipitation Tonight.  This is a fast moving system, however, with the NW flow in place, so the somewhat steadier precipitation shouldn't last more than 2-3 hours in any one location.  Low temperatures will be in the teens and 20s with maybe a few single digits in far Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the south, east, or west at 10 to 15 mph.

Total snow accumulations for Tonight:

*1-3" for Northern Minnesota, including the Iron Range, Arrowhead, and North Shore. 
*Around 1" to maybe 2" for Northwest Wisconsin, Twin Ports and Highway 2 corridor.
*1" or less for the Brainerd Lakes, Pine City areas.

-The image below is from the RAP model (18z run) Total precipitation forecast for Tonight.  Green colors represent 0.10" or more of liquid precip.  Dark blue, about 0.05" of liquid precip.  With the cold air in place, the precip will fall as snow in the Northland.  Using the precip totals that this model shows, I come up with a 1-3" snowfall in our area Tonight with maybe a 4" total along the North Shore.  The snow should be rather fluffy because of the cold air in place.
















Sunday and Sunday Night (November 25th)

A cold front exits to our south/east during this period.  Flurries are possible on Sunday with a flare up of lake effect snow showers for Sunday Night, affecting Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.  A few inches of snow could accumulate in the Upson, Gile, and Hurley areas Sunday Night.

Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.  Winds will be from the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast, Monday through Wednesday (November 26th-28th)

Forecaster confidence:  Above Average.

Chilly temperatures can be expected for the early to mid part of next week with 1 or 2 disturbances dropping S/SE out of Central Canada which will reinforce the cold air.  A few snow showers and flurries could occur as those disturbances pass through the region.  Highs in the teens and 20s are forecast Monday through Wednesday.  Low temperatures will range from the single digits below to low teens above zero.

Long Range Forecast (November 29th-December 4th)

Forecaster confidence:  Average.

The time frame to keep an eye on appears to be from December 2-4, that's when a low pressure system may come out of the Rockies as an upper trough tries to develop to our west.  The problem is that temperatures look warm enough that if this storm hits us, precipitation would be mostly rain per latest model gudiance.  Nothing much going on from November 29-December 1 the way it looks now. 

Near to below average temperatures for the 29th-30th with above average temperatures from the 1st-4th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Some light snow and flurries, mainly before 2 AM.  Total snow accumulations of 1" or less.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind south to southeast around 10 mph, shifting to southwest at 10 to 15 mph late.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.   High 22 to 27.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5 above.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.   High 15 to 20.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday...  Flurries possible.  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  31
Low:  17

Sunrise Sunday:  7:26 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   4:25 PM CST

Tim




Friday, November 23, 2012

A recap of Thursday Night's snowfall in Today's blog; Very cold temperatures Tonight; Another shot at some light snow Saturday Night; A chilly weekend ahead.

/Issued at 3:21 PM CST, Friday, November 23rd, 2012/

-Snowfall map for November 22-23, 2012 ending This Morning.  Legend is on the right side of the map.  (Map from the Midwest Regional Climate Center)
















A significant snowfall hit portions of the Northland Thanksgiving Night and Friday, November 22-23, 2012.

*Snowfall report for November 22-23, 2012*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Bayfield County:

Cornucopia, WI:  12.0"
5 S of Herbster, WI:  12.0"
Oulu, WI:  11.0"
Bayfield, WI:  8.8"

Douglas County:

Hawthorne, WI:  12.0"
Maple, WI:  10.5"
Poplar, WI:  10.5"
Gordon, WI:  8.0"

Ashland County:

2 NW of Mellen, WI:  9.5"
Ashland, WI:  6.5"

Iron County:

Upson, WI:  7.0"

Lake County:

Finland, MN:  10.0"
7 NW of Two Harbors, MN:  7.0"
Silver Bay, MN:  3.5"

St. Louis County:

5 N of Virginia, MN:  6.0"
3 E of Payne, MN:  6.0"
3 E of Island Lake, MN:  5.8"
Babbitt, MN:  5.5"
6 NW of Duluth, MN:  5.3" (official NWS total)
Tower, MN:  4.5"
Cotton, MN:  4.0"
Ely, MN:  4.0"

Cook County:

Grand Portage, MN:  5.0"

Carlton County:

Moose Lake, MN:  4.0"

Itasca County:

Dixon Lake, MN:  3.0"

Grand Rapids, MN:  2.0"

Koochiching County:

Littlefork, MN:  3.0"
Northome, MN:  1.8"

Pine County:

Hinckley, MN:  1.5"

Burnett County:

4 N of Grantsburg, WI:  2.3"

Washburn County:

2 WNW of Stone Lake, WI:  3.2"

Weather Tidbits:

-High temperature of 52F at Duluth, Minnesota on November 22nd, 2012 was the 6th time this month with a high temperature of at least 50F.

-Number of days at or above 50F in November 2012 at Duluth, MN:  6.  This ties the number we had during November 2011.  Also, it appears that November 22nd was our last time reaching 50 degrees this year which is just 2 days shy of when our last 50 occurred in 2011 (November 24th)

-Daily snowfall total of 3.3" at Duluth, Minnesota on 11/22/12 was the heaviest daily snowfall total since March 5th when 8.5" of snow fell.

*Record Event*

November 22nd, 2012:  A record high temperature was tied at Duluth, Minnesota.  The high was 52 degrees which tied the previous record last set in 2006.

November 22nd, 2012:  A record high temperature was broken in the Twin Cities, Minnesota.  The high was 60 degrees which broke the previous record of 59 degrees set in 1998.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Deep low pressure of 990mb has moved into far Western Quebec late This Afternoon.  This low combined with a strong mid/upper level low led to the overachieving snowfall that occurred in parts of the Northland during the past 24 hours.  A cold and blustery day occurred Today in wake of last night's storm.  Highs were only in the teens and 20s with northwest winds at 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.  Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy Today with lingering snow showers and flurries along with some blowing and drifting snow.  Heavier lake effect snow showers have been occurring along the South Shore of Lake Superior due to the NW flow crossing the lake and the cold air blowing over the warmer water temperatures.

-Here's a 12 hour water vapor loop of the storm that affected the Northland during the past 24 hours.  Quite an impressive looking moving through the Great Lakes Today.

















Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A very strong upper low was moving through Eastern Ontario and the Eastern Great Lakes Today per water vapor satellite imagery, height falls of 90-240 meters were accompanying this late November storm Today per RAP model analysis.  A northwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today behind that storm to our east.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -8 to -14C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term:

Tonight (November 23rd)

Forecaster confidence:  Above Average.

A ridge of high pressure moves east out of the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur with lingering flurries and snow showers ending This Evening.  Lows will be in the single digits and teens with northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (November 24th)

Forecaster confidence:  Above Average.

High pressure moves off to our east with low pressure to our NW.  A warm front and cold front along with a shot of warm air advection will move through our area Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Night and this could lead to some light snow and flurries, especially Saturday Night.  Snow accumulations of 1" or less is expected in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota.  1-2" of snow could fall in Northern Minnesota, including the Iron Range, Arrowhead, and North Shore.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s.  Winds are forecast to be out of the south, east, or west at 10 to 15 mph.

-15z 11/23/12 SREF model snowfall forecast for Saturday Night.  An inch or two of snow is possible Tomorrow Night across Northern Minnesota with the higher totals along and north of the Iron Range the way it looks now.
















Extended Forecast, Sunday through Tuesday (November 25th-27th)

Forecaster confidence:  Above Average.

A few flurries or snow showers are possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Sunday and Monday with mainly dry conditions for next Tuesday.  High temperatures in the teens and 20s are expected for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.  Low temperatures will be in the single digits and teens Sunday Night and Monday Night.

Long Range Forecast (November 28th-December 3rd)

Forecaster confidence:  Average to Below Average.

Near to below average temperatures are forecast for the 28th-30th with mainly dry weather.  The period from the 1st-3rd of December may feature above average temperatures per latest model guidance as a trough possibly develops over the Western U.S. which would setup a SW flow over the Plains and Great Lakes.  There could be a storm coming out of the Rockies as well, but right now it looks like this storm if it hits would bring mostly rain to the Northland sometime between the 2nd-3rd, or perhaps a little after this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible early.  Low 6 to 11.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 23 to 28.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Light snow or flurries possible.  Accumulations less than 1".  Mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind becoming west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  31
Low:  18

Sunrise Saturday:  7:25 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:26 PM CST

Tim







Thursday, November 22, 2012

Thanksgiving Night snow update.

/Issued at 4:27 PM CST, Thursday, November 22, 2012/

Weather impacts for Tonight in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin:

-Snow and falling temperatures into the teens and 20s.  Some mixed precipitation possible in some locations early This Evening before the switch over to snow occurs. 

-Winds increasing out of the NW at 15 to 30 mph.  Wind chills (feels like temperature) dropping into the single digits and teens.

-Roads will become slick and hazardous during the night and into Friday Morning.  Use extreme caution if you have travel plans.

-HRRR model snowfall forecast for Tonight.  The green colors are snow totals of 3-5".  Yellow color represents snow totals of 6".  The legend is on the bottom of this map. 

For Duluth and Superior:   The HRRR model is showing about 1-2" of snow Tonight.  East of the Twin Ports, a swath of 3-5" could fall.

















-NWS hazards map.  Winter Weather Advisory continues for Tonight north of Duluth, and also in parts of Northwest Wisconsin.
















*Updated Winter Weather Headline Information*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A winter weather advisory remains in effect for Northern Minnesota.

Expiration time:  6 AM CST Friday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Koochiching MN
Itasca MN
Northern Cass MN
Central and Northern St. Louis MN
Lake MN
Cook MN

Some cities included in the advisory:

International Falls MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Isabella MN...Finland MN...Lutsen MN...and Grand Marais MN.

Discussion:

Snow will develop This Evening and will continue Overnight before tapering off to flurries Friday Morning.  Some rain and sleet may occur for a time early This Evening before the precipitation becomes all snow.

Impacts:

Falling temperatures, increasing wind speeds, wind chills dropping into the single digits, and falling snow will create hazardous travel conditions Tonight and Friday Morning.  Be prepared for snow covered and slippery roads.  Some blowing and drifting snow may also develop later Tonight.

Total snowfall:

2-5" by Friday Morning with isolated 6" totals possible.

A winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow means that visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and blowing snow.  Use caution when traveling, especially in open areas that are more exposed to the wind.  Roads may be slick and hazardous, so allow extra time to reach your destination.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A winter weather advisory has been issued for parts of Northwest Wisconsin.

Start time:  9 PM CST This Evening.
Expiration time:  4 PM CST Friday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Ashland WI
Iron WI

Some cities included in the advisory:

Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Gile WI...Montreal WI...Upson WI...and Hurley WI.

Discussion:

Snow will develop Tonight but may start out as a mix of rain, sleet, and snow This Evening.  Snow will continue Overnight into Friday Morning before tapering off to flurries, although lake effect snow showers will likely continue in the snowbelt region downwind of Lake Superior Friday Afternoon.

Total snowfall:

2-5" by Friday Afternoon with isolated amounts up to 6"

Impacts:

Falling temperatures, increasing wind speeds, wind chills dropping into the single digits, and falling snow will create hazardous travel conditions Tonight and Friday.  Be prepared for snow covered and slippery roads.  Some blowing and drifting snow may also develop late Tonight and on Friday.

-A radar loop from This Afternoon showing the snow (blue on this map) and the rain-mixed precip (green and pink colors)  marching across Minnesota.














Tim

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Winter Weather Headlines in effect in Northern Minnesota for late Thursday PM-Friday AM; Some fog possible Tonight; Mild on Turkey Day; Sharply colder with gusty winds Thursday Night-Friday.

/Issued at 4:51 PM CST, Wednesday, November 21st, 2012/

-NWS hazards map.  Winter Weather Advisory north of Duluth for late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning.  Gale Warning covers parts of Lake Superior for Thursday Night.  This will be a NW gale, so the biggest waves will occur east of the Twin Ports.

















*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter weather advisory has been issued for Northern Minnesota.

Start time:  3 PM CST Thursday.
Expiration time:  6 AM CST Friday.

Counties included in the advisory are:

Koochiching MN
Itasca MN
Northern Cass MN
Central and Northern St. Louis MN
Lake MN
Cook MN

Some cities included in the advisory:

International Falls...Bigfork...Grand Rapids...Cass Lake...Walker...Hibbing...Ely...Orr...Crane Lake...Two Harbors...Silver Bay...Finland...Isabella...Lutsen...and Grand Marais.

Discussion:

A mixture of rain and snow is forecast to develop Thursday Afternoon or early Thursday Evening.  This mixture of precipitation will change over to snow from west to east Thursday Evening with snow continuing Thursday Night before ending Friday Morning.

Impacts:

Falling temperatures and a possible mix of precipitation along with a period of snow will result in hazardous driving conditions with roads becoming snow covered and icy by Thursday Night into Friday Morning.  Visibilities could be reduced to less than a mile at times due to falling and blowing snow.

Total snowfall accumulations:

2-5" with the greatest amounts expected to be north and northwest of the Iron Range, and into the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

A winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow means that visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and blowing snow.  Use caution when traveling, especially in open areas that are more exposed to the wind.  Roads may be slick and hazardous, so allow extra time to reach your destination.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1002mb was over Western North Dakota early This Evening with a warm front in Southern Minnesota.  Low clouds and fog which developed late last night burned off This Morning which gave way to sunny to partly cloudy skies.  Well above average temperatures continued once again Today with highs in the 40s and 50s...Southern Minnesota saw highs in the 60s and even a few lower 70s Today! Winds were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A southwest flow was in place across the Upper Midwest with an upper trough along with it's 60-90 meter height falls moving through the Northwest U.S. and into the Northern Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +10 to +16C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short term

Tonight (November 21st) 

Forecaster confidence:  Above Average.

Low pressure will move toward Western Minnesota during the night with a warm front lifting NE out of Southern Minnesota.  Dry weather for Tonight with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Some fog and low clouds could develop so beware of that possibility if you will be doing some traveling Tonight.  Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s with south or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Thanksgiving Day and Night (November 22nd) 

Forecaster confidence:  Average.

Low pressure will strengthen as it moves east-northeast along the Minnesota-Ontario border before moving out over Lake Superior by Thursday Night.  Two cold fronts will pass through the Northland during this period.  The first front is forecast to move through the area Tomorrow Morning-early Afternoon with the arctic front moving through our area Thursday Afternoon/Evening.

Starts out dry Thursday Morning with patchy fog possible along with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Light rain or a wintry mix of precipitation should develop Thursday Afternoon while overspreading the Northland from west to east.  Precipitation will change over to snow in all areas by Thursday Evening as much colder air blows into the Upper Midwest behind the surface low and cold front.

At the moment it looks like all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will receive at least a dusting to 1" of snow come Thursday Night, but there will likely be an area that receives heavier amounts and that area looks to be Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead, or along and north of Highway 2...Snowfall totals in these areas could reach 2-5" by Friday Morning.

Hazardous travel conditions will likely develop in the Northland Thursday Night into Friday Morning.  Falling temperatures, gusty winds, and some snow will result in not so pleasant elements for those shoppers that plan to be out and about Thursday Night.  Some roads will likely become icy and snow covered so use extreme caution if you have travel plans.

High temperatures on Thursday will range from the 30s in Northern Minnesota to the 40s and 50s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the teens and 20s with wind chills lowering into the single digits and teens.  Winds on Thursday will be out of the south, west, or north at 10 to 20 mph.  Winds Thursday Night will be out of the north or west at 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.

-Surface map valid for 12 PM CST Thursday.  Light rain should begin to develop in Northern Minnesota between 12pm-2pm Thursday.  (Map from the HPC)














-By 6pm Thursday, cold air will be pouring SE across the Northland which will cause the rain to change to snow from west to east.  The pink dashed line is the rain/snow line at 6pm Thursday.  (Map from the HPC)
















-A slight risk for at least 4" of snow Thursday Night in far Northern Minnesota per HPC.
















-By 6 PM Thursday, there's a 20-30% chance that snow accumulations will reach at least 1" in Northern Minnesota, west-northwest of Duluth.  (HPC)


















-For Thursday Night, after 6pm there's a better chance for at least 1" of snow in much of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  HPC puts the risk at 40-70%.
















-15z SREF 500mb VORT map for 6 PM Thursday.  The system moving through Tomorrow is quite potent, quite a bit of energy=decent lift which will result in precipitation in the Northland.  Nice "U" shape trough moving into Northcentral Minnesota Tomorrow Evening.
















-And the 500mb VORT map for 9 PM Thursday per 15z SREF model.  The system attempts to close off a bit in Northern Minnesota later Thursday Evening.

















Extended Forecast, Friday through Sunday (November 23rd-25th)

Forecaster confidence:  Above Average.

Flurries or snow showers could linger into Friday with some lake effect snow possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin, affecting Northern Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties.  Looking dry Friday Night and most of Saturday.  A chance for light snow and flurries will appear Saturday Night into Sunday as a clipper passes north of our area.

High temperatures will be in the teens and 20s on Friday with 20s and a few 30s for Saturday and Sunday.  Lows Friday Night will be in the single digits and teens.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast (November 26th-December 1st)

Forecaster confidence:  Below Average.

Computer models are a mess for next week so confidence is extremely low on what will happen.  Still have to watch this whole period for a possible snow event, but can't really nail down the timing this far out, stay tuned!  Near to below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Patchy fog possible.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.  Wind south to southeast around 10 mph.

.Thanksgiving Day...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible early.  A few rain showers possible later in the day.  High 45 to 50.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph, becoming.

.Thursday Night...  Windy and colder with some snow.  Total accumulations of up to 1" possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 18 to 23.  Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Friday...  Breezy and colder.  Flurries or snow showers possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 23 to 28.  Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 7 to 12.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 15 to 20.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 27 to 32.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  32
Low:  18

Sunrise Thursday:  7:22 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:27 PM CST

Tim






Tuesday, November 20, 2012

*Alert* Snow is in the forecast Thanksgiving Evening-Friday AM, a couple inches could fall; LRC forecast for December.

/Issued 3:35 PM CST, Tuesday, November 20th, 2012/

-Snow? Yes, snow is in the forecast later this week.  Several inches of it could accumulate Thursday Night, especially in Northern Minnesota and possibly in far Northern Wisconsin.  The HPC has outlined those areas in a Slight Risk for at least 4" of snow Thursday Night.  More details below...
















 Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC).  Ever hear of it? If not, I'll give you a brief description of what it is.  Every fall a unique weather pattern develops that repeats itself throughout the year.  The cycle length varies each year, sometimes it can be as short as 40 days, other times it can be over 50 days. 

This winter for the 1st time ever I will be posting what the LRC is forecasting for Duluth, I'm actually going to start doing this Today.

Big thanks goes out to Josh Herman, he's the one that got me into the LRC 2 years ago.  Josh is an LRC guru and a great guy!  If you're on Twitter, give Josh a follow @OSNW3.

*Looking ahead to the start of winter 2012-13 using the LRC*

December 2012 for Duluth, Minnesota:

-Number of 0 or below 0 low temperatures:  7
-Number of days with snow:  13

-The coldest temperatures are forecast to occur during the 1st week of December with moderating temperatures thereafter, before another blast of cold air comes in around December 20th, which will then persist through the rest of the month.

*RECORD EVENT*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

November 18th, 2012:  Record high temperature tied at International Falls, Minnesota.  High temperature was 54 degrees which tied the previous record of 54 set in 2001.

November 19th, 2012:  Record high temperature at International Falls, Minnesota.  High temperature was 54 degrees which broke the previous record of 50 degrees set in 1925.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A ridge of high pressure averaging 1020-1022mb stretched from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest Today.  Areas of fog and low clouds formed over portions of the Northland early This Morning, locations that saw the development of low clouds/fog had a difficult time clearing out Today due to rather light winds and the low November sun angle.  Consider yourself lucky if your city didn't have any fog/low clouds Today, if that was the case then skies were mostly sunny.  High temperatures Today were in the 30s and 40s with a few 50s down in Price County Wisconsin.  So temperatures for most areas were cooler Today than the past 2 days, but were still above average for the time of year.  Winds were out of the south or east around 10 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A westerly flow covered the Upper Midwest Today per RAP model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  An upper trough was over the Pacific Northwest, and a pretty strong disturbance was diving south/east through Illinois and Indiana.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +6 to +10C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

*Short Term* (Forecaster confidence:  Above Average)

Tonight (November 20th)

Clear to partly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight, but expect some low clouds and fog to redevelop during the night.  Some of the fog could deposit a thin layer of moisture and may lead to some slick spots Tonight so beware of that possibility.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with south or east winds around 10 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (November 21st)

Areas of low clouds and fog should burn off during the day with partly-mostly sunny skies expected in the Northland, highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with south winds at 10 to 15 mph.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow Night with lows in the 30s to lower 40s, winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the south or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

*Extended Forecast, Thursday-Saturday (November 22nd-24th)

(Forecaster confidence:  Below Average on Thursday.  Above Average Fri/Sat)

Thursday November 22nd:

Low pressure is forecast to move E/NE out of the Northern Plains, passing through Northern Minnesota, and out into Lake Superior.  As this low moves east it will deepen and be accompanied by a very strong upper level low which will move through the Upper Midwest on Thursday.

The potential for an accumulating snowfall is increasing a bit for portions of the Northland later this week.  At this time it appears that Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead, or areas north of Highway 2  have the greatest chance at picking up a couple inches of snow from Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning,  but this could shift a bit more to the south, or end up farther north in future model runs, so stay tuned!

High temperatures on Thanksgiving Day will range from the 30s in Northern Minnesota to the 40s and 50s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Colder air overspreads the entire Northland Thanksgiving Night with lows in the teens and 20s.  Winds will also become rather gusty, especially Thursday Afternoon/Night with NW winds increasing to 10-25 mph.

The combination of falling temperatures, gusty winds, and some snow may lead to some travel issues Thursday Night/Friday Morning in parts of our area.  Some roads could become snow covered and slippery at that time.

Friday and Saturday (23rd-24th)

Deep low pressure exits to our east on Friday with some flurries or snow showers possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures will only be in the 20s with gusty NW winds continuing which will drop wind chills into the single digits and teens.  Low temperatures Friday Night will settle into the single digits and teens.  Saturday looks mainly dry, but there could be some flurries in Northern Minnesota come Saturday Night as a clipper like system approaches from the northwest.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 20s to lower 30s.

-Here's the 1" or greater snowfall potential probability map for Thursday Evening-Overnight.  40-70% chance for at least an inch of snow across Northern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin per HPC.















-Should this map verify, then even Duluth-Superior would pick up a couple inches of snow Thursday Night.  This is the liquid precipitation forecast for Thursday Night.  Anywhere from 0.10-0.25" of precipitation is forecast to fall across the Northland.  Fluff this up to snow, and I come up with totals of 1-5", depending on the actual snow ratios.  A quarter inch of liquid precip in Duluth could mean a 1-3" snowfall.  Stay tuned! (Map from the HPC)


















Long Range Forecast (November 25th-30th)

(Forecaster confidence: Average)

Some snow showers and flurries may affect Northern Minnesota on Sunday (25th) as low pressure passes by to our north.  Whether or not we see a larger winter storm develop sometime from the 27th-30th remains to be seen as computer models are doing the usual flip flopping from day to day.  Temperatures through this period are forecast to be near to below average.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind south to southeast around 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible, mainly early.  High 46 to 51.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph, becoming west late.

.Thanksgiving Day...  Increasing cloudiness.  Some rain possible during the Afternoon.  High 45 to 50.

.Thursday Night...  Breezy and colder.  Some snow possible with accumulations of up to 1" possible.  Low 20 to 25.  Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Friday...  Breezy and colder.  Flurries possible at times.  High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 7 to 12.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  33
Low:  20

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:21 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:28 PM CST

Tim












Monday, November 19, 2012

Mild temperatures thru Thanksgiving Day; Windy and colder Thursday Night-Friday with possible snow showers.

/Issued 3:30 PM CST, Monday, November 19th, 2012/

-Well, the 12z EUROPEAN model from November 19th is showing quite a storm for the middle of next week, this map is for next Wednesday, November 28th, 2012 and shows a tightly wrapped up low centered between Chicago, Illinois and Milwaukee, Wisconsin.  Should this storm materialize and track like that, then the heaviest corridor of snow would likely setup from Southern Minnesota into Central Wisconsin.  Word of caution, this potential storm is over a week away and the track of the storm, the timing, and strength will likely change, so stay tuned! This is more of a heads up then anything else, just keep the November 27-29 time period in the back of your mind for potential trouble from the weather.















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold front has moved into Central Minnesota as of 3 PM.  A few rain showers and sprinkles have been occurring Today ahead of this front in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, otherwise skies varied from partly cloudy to sunny from International Falls to the Brainerd Lakes, while overcast skies prevailed in the Arrowhead, North Shore, I-35 corridor, and in all of Northwest Wisconsin.  Temperatures remained well above average Today with highs in the 40s and 50s.  Winds were out of the south or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Seeing a westerly flow across the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  A pretty vigorous disturbance is passing through the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Central Canada Today with the greatest height falls occurring north of the border in Ontario and Manitoba.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +4 to +8C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

*Short Range* (Forecaster confidence:  Above Average)

Tonight (November 19th)

A cold front will continue it's eastward journey, passing through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Evening.  Spotty light showers or sprinkles are possible in Northwest Wisconsin and far Northeast Minnesota through mid-Evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the 20s and 30s, but a few spots in far Northern Minnesota may drop into the teens.  Winds will switch to the north/west at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (November 20th)

Dry weather with partly cloudy skies can be expected this period.  Highs on Tuesday will mainly be in the 40s with lows Tuesday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will switch around from the northwest to the south at 10 to 15 mph.

*Extended Range* (Forecaster confidence:  Above Average)

Wednesday through Friday, (November 21st-23rd)

Mild temperatures continue on Wednesday with highs in the 40s and 50s.  Low pressure will be organizing over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains at mid-week, this system will pass north of Minnesota and will strengthen a bit as it does so from Thursday into Friday.  Colder air pours into the Northland in wake of the low from late Thursday Afternoon into Friday.

 Looking mainly dry for Turkey Day, and then a few snow showers and flurries could pass through our area Thursday Night and Friday.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s with highs on Friday only in the 20s and lower 30s which is near to slightly below average.

Gusty winds will also occur Thursday and Friday, so those who are planning to camp out/shop Thursday Night and Friday will want to bundle up as wind chills (feel like temperatures) drop into the single digits and teens.

Note:  Snowfall accumulations of up to an inch are possible Thursday Night/Friday in far Northern Minnesota with a dusting possible as far south as the Twin Ports area.  Roads could become a little slick late Thursday Night or Friday Morning so beware of that possibility.

Low temperatures Wednesday Night will mainly be in the 30s.  Lows Thursday Night are forecast to be in the teens and 20s.

-Surface map for Friday, November 23rd, 2012 per HPC.  A pretty strong low over Northeastern Lake Superior, note the green lines and how close together they are, this could lead to some strong winds in Minnesota and Wisconsin on Friday.  Also, the dashed brown lines (troughs) rotating around the surface low E-NE of Minnesota may cause enough lift in the atmosphere to generate some "Black Friday" snow showers.
















*Long Range*  (Forecaster confidence:  Average)

(November 24th-29th)

Computer models are looking a little more wintry during this period.  Looks like temperatures will end up near to below average from the 24th-29th.  A disturbance or two may also affect the area and could bring a bit of snow to the Northland.  The period/s to keep an eye on are...November 24th-25th, and from the 27th-29th.

-6 to 10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.  This is valid from November 25th-29th, 2012.  Colder than average temperatures are forecast for states/areas shaded in blue.



















5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind south around 10 mph, becoming northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 43 to 48.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Thanksgiving Day...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

.Thursday Night...  Breezy and colder.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Friday...  Breezy and colder.  Considerable cloudiness.  Snow showers and flurries possible at times.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  34
Low:  20

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:19 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:29 PM CST

Tim