Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Oh boy, we set the clocks back an hour this weekend; Updated precip/temp outlooks for November in Today's blog; A little snow or rain Friday Night-Saturday?

Issued 3:48 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 31st, 2012

*The Climate Prediction Center released their updated outlook for November 2012.  A wetter than average month ahead for Minnesota and Wisconsin? Keep in mind that Duluth's average snowfall for November is 13.7" and the average precipitation is 2.09".


















*The updated temperature outlook for November 2012 calls for an equal chance of above, below, or normal temperatures in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  (CPC)





















A very cold Halloween Morning in the Northland

Low temperature report for October 31, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

International Falls, MN:  12F
Hibbing, MN:  13F
Crane Lake, MN:  12F
Ely, MN:  12F
Cook, MN:  10F
Bigfork, MN:  12F
Superior, WI:  14F
Siren, WI:  14F
Babbitt, MN:  8F
Embarrass, MN:  10F
3 E of Orr, MN:  13F

Weather Tidbits:

*Will October go down as the 1st month since June 2011 with a below average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota?  Seems pretty likely that it will, but going into Today the average monthly temperature for October was just 0.7 degrees below normal.

*The water temperature at the Duluth-Superior Harbor was 44.4F on this last day of October.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Temperatures warmed nicely This Afternoon considering how cold it was to start the day.  High temperatures were mainly in the 40s with winds out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph.  Skies were partly cloudy to sunny.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

RAP model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery shows a NW flow covering the Upper Midwest with upper troughs to our east and over the Northeast Pacific.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from 0 to -2C in Northeast Minnesota to +2 to +6C in Western, Central, and Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (October 31st)

A cold front will drop SE and pass through the Northland during the night.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (November 1st)

Cooler air invades the area during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the teens and 20s.  Clear to partly cloudy skies should continue this period with winds out of the north or west at 10 to 20 mph.

Note:  There could be a few snow flurries late Tonight into Thursday Morning, mainly in extreme Northern Minnesota.

Extended Forecast, Friday through Sunday (November 2nd-4th)

A mid/upper level area of low pressure is forecast to drop SE out of the Northern Plains between Friday and early Sunday.  This system doesn't look to have much moisture associated with it, but there still could be some light snow or mixed rain/snow in portions of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, especially from Friday Night into early Sunday.  High temperatures will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees from Friday through Sunday.  Low temperatures Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 20s to lower 30s.

*The HPC is quite aggressive with the amount of snow that may come down Friday Night-Saturday in North Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  A slight risk for at least 4" of snow in the blue outlined area.  Not really buying into this solution at this time.















Long Range Forecast (November 5th-10th)

A strong area of low pressure will pass through Central Canada from the 5th-7th, a cold front attached to this low will sweep through the area sometime early next week, a few showers of rain or snow can't be ruled out as this front moves through.  The period from November 9-10, including a few days beyond this period could feature a stronger storm system coming out of the Western U.S.  The long range computer models for the 2nd day in a row continue to show a pattern that may be favorable for a more organized storm, but of course the exact track/timing/strength remains uncertain this far out in time.  Stay tuned!  Temperatures from November 5-10 are forecast to be near to slightly above normal.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 37 to 42.  Wind northwest at 15 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 38 to 43.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.

.Saturday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 35 to 40.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 38 to 43.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  44
Low:  30

Sunrise Thursday:  7:52 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   5:52 PM CDT

Tim

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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

1 to 2 feet of snow in the mountains out east with hurricane Sandy; Snow report in Today's blog. A pleasantly cool Halloween for the Northland. Friday Night-Saturday Evening light rain/snow threat? A bigger storm brewing for the 9th-11th?

Issued 4:18 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 30th, 2012

Note:  5.9% of the U.S. is covered by snow as of October 30th, 2012.  At this time last year, 7.4% of the U.S. was covered by snow.  (NOHRSC)













Hurricane/Super Storm Sandy tidbits:
Source:  MPR Updraft Blog

-Over 8 million without power.  2.4 million in New Jersey alone.

-Major damage on each of the New Jersey major rail lines.

-Unprecedented devastation along the Jersey Shore according to New Jersey governor Chris Christie.

-As Sandy made landfall Monday Evening it's pressure was 946mb which tied with the Great Long Island Express Hurricane of 1938 for most powerful storm in the Northeast U.S., North of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

-This was New York City's worst hurricane (dating back to 1624)

-A 9 foot storm surge rode in on top of the high tide Monday Evening with water levels of 13.88 feet at the Battery.  This smashed the previous high water record of 11.2 feet set in 1821 (The Great Hurricane)

-Sandy's pressure of 940mb made it the lowest observed barometric pressure north of the Carolinas.

-Damage estimates from superstorm Sandy will likely end up in the tens of billions dollar range, and will likely be 1 of the top 5 most expensive disasters in U.S. history.

*All-time low pressure records were set at the following locations on October 29, 2012*
Source:  MPR/Updraft blog.  Weatherunderground.

Atlantic City, New Jersey:  28.01"
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania:  28.23"
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania:  28.46"
Scranton, Pennsylvania:  28.69"
Trenton, New Jersey:  28.31"
Baltimore, Maryland:  28.49"

*Rainfall totals ending at 10 AM CDT, October 30th, 2012*
Source:  HPC

Washington D.C./National:  4.66"
Dover AFB:  8.51"
Baltimore/Washington International Airport:  6.51"
Cleveland:  4.07"

Note:  What made Hurricane Sandy so unique was that it also produced a major blizzard in the mountains out east. 

Here are some snowfall totals through 10 AM CDT, October 30th, 2012
Source:  HPC

3 S of Lynch, Kentucky:  12.0"
Roadhouse, Maryland:  26.0"
Garrett, Maryland:  26.0"
Davis, West Virginia:  23.0"
3 SE of Morgantown, West Virginia:  12.0"

*Wind gusts from Monday, October 29th, 2012*
Source:  HPC

Islip, New York:  90 mph
2 N of Tompkinsville, New Jersey:  90 mph
Sandy Hook, New Jersey:  81 mph
JFK (New York)  79 mph
Newark, New Jersey:  78 mph
Atlantic City:  77 mph

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Partly sunny to sunny skies prevailed Today with highs in the upper 30s and 40s.  Winds were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph, mainly in Northwest Wisconsin.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A large upper trough covered the Eastern U.S., and Central/Eastern Great Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery with a west-northwest flow in place across the Upper Midwest.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from 0 to -2C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (October 30th)

High pressure will keep things quiet and cool in the Northland.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the 20s to around 30 degrees, but some spots will likely dip into the teens.  North, east, or west winds are expected at 5 to 15 mph.

Halloween Day and Night (October 31st)

No issues with the weather for this Halloween.  Dry, under clear to partly cloudy skies.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will be out of the north or west at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast, Thursday through Saturday (November 1st-3rd)

Calm weather conditions should carry over into Thursday.  Then Friday and Saturday could feature some light snow or rain as low pressure passes well to our south, but an upper level low combined with an inverted trough swinging through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest could bring some light precipitation to our area, especially from late Friday into Saturday.  High temperatures from Thursday through Saturday are forecast to be in the 30s to lower 40s.  Low temperatures Thursday Night will be in the teens and 20s with 20s and lower 30s for Saturday Night.

Long Range Forecast (November 4th-9th)

A strong area of low pressure will track through Central Canada between Monday/Tuesday (5th-6th) A cold front attached to this low is expected to pass through the Upper Midwest early next week, this front should come through dry.  By late next week there are some trends showing up per long range model guidance for a stronger weather system to take shape across the Western U.S., this system may have some impact on our weather toward next weekend (10th-11th) Stay tuned!  Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected from 11.4-11.9

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 21 to 26.  Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Halloween...  Mostly sunny.  High 40 to 45.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Trick or Treat Forecast:  Mostly clear skies between 4 PM-10 PM with temperatures in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Winds from the north-northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 38 to 43.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 22 to 27.

.Friday...  Increasing cloudiness.  High 38 to 43.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.

.Saturday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 35 to 40.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  45
Low:  30

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:50 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   5:54 PM CDT

Tim

Monday, October 29, 2012

Quiet weather in the Northland for the next several days; Sandy satellite images in Today's blog; And a recap of Sunday's snow NW of Duluth.

Issued 3:51 PM CDT, Monday, October 29th, 2012

*Gigantic Hurricane Sandy nearing landfall as of 4 PM Today.  The latest advisory out of the National Hurricane Center indicates a 940mb pressure or 27.76"  with winds of 90 mph.  Movement was toward the west-northwest at 28 mph.  The center of Sandy was 30 miles east-southeast of Cape May New Jersey or about 40 miles south of Atlantic City New Jersey.















*Here's a color enhanced satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy.  This image was from 11:45 AM CDT Today.  (NOAA)

















High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

October 21-27, 2012:

10/21:  56F/7 degrees above average
10/22:  52F/3 degrees above average
10/23:  49F/1 degree above average
10/24:  57F/9 degrees above average
10/25:  44F/3 degrees below average
10/26:  38F/9 degrees below average
10/27:  40F/6 degrees below average

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

October 21-27, 2012:

10/21:  38F/5 degrees above average
10/22:  45F/12 degrees above average
10/23:  45F/12 degrees above average
10/24:  44F/12 degrees above average
10/25:  32F/Normal
10/26:  26F/6 degrees below average

*Temperature departure map for last week.  Duluth saw temperatures around 1 degree above average for the entire week.




















Precipitation total for 10/21-10/27:  0.57"
Average:  0.56"
Departure from average:  +0.01"

*Most of Minnesota and Wisconsin had a wet week last week with precipitation totals running anywhere from 125 to 300% above what the average would be from 10/21-10/27.



















*Snowfall report for October 28, 2012*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

St. Louis County:

Embarrass, MN:  2.5"
Ely, MN:  1.8"
Cook, MN:  1.0"

Itasca County:

Marcell, MN:  4.0"
Grand Rapids, MN:  3.5"
Keewatin, MN:  2.1"

*Snowfall map for Saturday Night-Sunday October 27-28, 2012.
















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

All is quiet in the Northland Today as skies were partly to mostly cloudy, highs were in the 40s which is pretty close to normal for late October.  Winds were out of the east at 5 to 15 mph.

*Visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Sandy from 3:45 PM Today.  (NOAA)














Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A west-northwest flow is in place over the Upper Midwest as Hurricane Sandy heads west toward New Jersey and Delaware per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  Very impressive height falls of 150-210 meters were occurring Today as an upper trough begins to absorb Hurricane Sandy in the Northeast U.S.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from 0 to -4C in Minnesota.

*12 hour GOES East water vapor satellite imagery.  A blocking pattern northeast of Sandy forced it to make a left turn Today, it couldn't keep moving north due to the block northeast of the hurricane.
















 Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Tuesday Night (October 29th-30th)

Strong high pressure averaging 1030mb will remain nearly stationary to our north which will keep things mainly dry in our area with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Tomorrow in the 30s and 40s.  Winds are expected to be out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph with gusts over 20 mph possible, especially near Lake Superior and in Northwest Wisconsin.

*Hazards map per NOAA.  Wind Warnings and Advisories stretch from Maine to far Eastern Wisconsin through the Ohio Valley, and down into the Southeast U.S. all because of Hurricane Sandy.  Gale and Storm Warnings are in effect for the Great Lakes, also associated with Hurricane Sandy.  Incredible!













*12z NAM 850mb wind forecast valid for 7 AM Tuesday.  Yes, the western fringes of Hurricane Sandy will reach as far west as Michigan, Wisconsin and Illinois with increasing northerly winds by late Tonight and lingering into early Wednesday.  Wind gusts of 45-60 mph are possible in those areas I mentioned above.

















Extended Forecast, Wednesday through Friday (October 31st-November 2nd)

Just a small chance of a shower or two on Halloween, mainly affecting Western portions of the area, otherwise this period looks dry.  High temperatures will remain in the 30s and 40s from Wednesday through Friday.  Low temperatures Wednesday Night and Thursday Night are forecast to mainly be in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast (November 3rd-8th)

A few showers are possible this weekend in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as low pressure and an inverted type trough moves across the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest.  Another threat for rain or snow exists between November 6th-8th.  Temperatures are forecast to be near to a little above average through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.   Low 28 to 33.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Halloween...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 22 to 27.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  45
Low:  30

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:49 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   5:55 PM CDT

Tim




Saturday, October 27, 2012

Looking back at the great storm of October 2010 in Today's blog. A little light snow/flurries late Tonight-Sunday, otherwise a quiet few days of weather across the Northland.

Issued at 4:29 PM CDT, Saturday, October 27th, 2012

*Surface map from 26 October 2010.  A record-setting 955mb surface low in Northern Minnesota, near Bigfork.  Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN.

















Weather Rewind:

-Remembering the great storm of October 2010.  A powerful fall storm with record low barometric pressure readings affected much of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes in late October 2010.  Intense winds, very heavy rain, and significant amounts of snow accompanied this massive storm.

Note:  At Duluth, Minnesota:  The precipitation total from October 23-27, 2010 was 3.74".  Total snowfall was 7.7".

*Regional impacts from the Great storm of October 2010.  Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.















*An incredible satellite image capturing this massive storm which hit 2 years ago on October 26-27.  Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN.















Weather Tidbits:

*Friday's high temperature of 38F at Duluth, Minnesota was the coldest maximum temperature since April 21st when the high was 37F.

*Month to date precipitation total at Duluth, Minnesota:  1.33" which is 1.14" below average.  October 2012 will likely end up as the 4th consecutive month with below average precipitation.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A crisp Autumn day in the Northland with partly-mostly sunny skies.  Highs were in the 30s to lower 40s with west winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

RAP model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery shows two troughs, one covering the Northern/Central Plains, and the Upper Midwest with the other one over the Eastern U.S. associated with Hurricane Sandy.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from -6 to -12C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (October 27th)

High pressure will be over the Central Plains and Upper Midwest while a low pressure disturbance moves east out of the Northern Plains.  Light snow and flurries are possible later Tonight, mainly in Western/Northern sections of our area.  Lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s with west or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Note:  Snow accumulations should remain less than 1" for Tonight and Sunday.  Some locales that could pick up a light dusting of snow late Tonight/Sunday AM include, International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Walker, Brainerd, Hibbing, Ely and Crane Lake.

Sunday and Sunday Night (October 28th)

A weak disturbance could continue to produce snow showers, flurries, and perhaps even a few rain showers on Sunday, especially in Northern Minnesota.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with highs Tomorrow in the 30s and 40s.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees.  South or east winds are expected at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast, Monday through Wednesday (October 29th-31st)

Looks mainly dry in the Northland from Monday-Wednesday.  The big weather story during the next 5 days will be the huge storm that'll lash the Eastern U.S.  This storm is so massive that the western fringes of it could impact Wisconsin in the form of gusty north winds for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Actually, effects from Sandy will extended from Maine to Wisconsin to Georgia and all points in between early next week.  Incredible!

High temperature forecast:

Monday:  30s and 40s.
Tuesday:  30s and 40s.
Wednesday:  30s and 40s.

Low temperature forecast:

Monday Night:  20s.
Tuesday Night:  20s.

*12z NAM forecast for Monday Evening, October 29th, 2012.  This is the 850mb wind speed forecast.  The size of Sandy as it comes onshore early next week is simply amazing.  Wind gusts greater than 40 mph could occur as far west as Wisconsin, south to Alabama and Florida.  Red shaded areas could have wind gusts exceeding 55-65 mph early next week.















Long Range Forecast (November 1st-6th)

Near to below normal temperatures are forecast during this period.  No major precipitation events anytime soon, but a little something could be brewing sometime between the 4th-6th of November.  Stay tuned!

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming east late.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries or sprinkles possible.  High 38 to 43.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 38 to 43.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 38 to 43.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 23 to 28.

.Halloween...  Partly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  46
Low:  31

Sunrise Sunday:  7:46 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   5:58 PM CDT

Tim




Thursday, October 25, 2012

*Complete snowfall report in Today's blog* Latest update on the drought, slight improvements this past week in both Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Issued 3:55 PM CDT, Thursday, October 25th, 2012

*Precipitation map for the past 24 hours, ending This Morning, October 25th, 2012.  Widespread much needed precipitation fell across much of Southern/Eastern Minnesota, and in Western, Central, and Northern Wisconsin.  Legend is on the right side of the map.
















*Snowfall report for October 25, 2012*
Source:  National Weather Service

St. Louis County:

3 E of Orr, MN:  4.8"
5 N of Virginia, MN:  3.0"
McKinley, MN:  2.8"
Saginaw, MN:  2.5"
1 E of Floodwood, MN:  2.3"

Itasca County:

Nashwauk, MN:  4.8"
Keewatin, MN:  4.5"
Warba, MN:  3.8"
Grand Rapids, MN:  2.5"
12 N of Taconite, MN:  2.2"
7 SE of Grand Rapids, MN:  2.0"

Aitkin County:

7 N of McGregor, MN:  2.9"
Aitkin, MN:  2.0"
Hill City, MN:  1.8"

*Note, this snow depth map only goes through This Morning.  Up to 1.0" of snow fell in areas that are shaded in gray in Minnesota.















Precipitation report for October 24-25, 2012 (ending between 6-7 AM Today)
Source:  National Weather Service

Duluth, MN:  0.23"
Brainerd, MN:  0.20"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.37"
Hayward, WI:  0.94"
Bruno, MN:  0.64"
12 N of Isle, MN:  0.21"
3 E of Wright, MN:  0.40"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.15"
Cook, MN:  0.14"
Embarrass, MN:  0.96"
Floodwood, MN:  0.42"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.59"
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  0.54"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.37"
Finland, MN:  0.44"
3 S of Ashland, WI:  1.23"
Butternut, WI:  1.10"
Gurney, WI:  1.27"
Park Falls, WI:  1.95"
Upson, WI:  1.03"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.87"
Gordon, WI:  0.87"

Minnesota drought monitor as of October 23rd, 2012
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

*99% of the state is in Moderate Drought, unchanged from last week.
*44% of the state is in Severe Drought, down from 47% last week.
*25% of the state is in Extreme Drought, down from 30% last week. 
















Wisconsin drought monitor as of October 23rd, 2012
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

*80% of the state is in Moderate Drought, down from 83% last week.
*35% of the state is in Severe Drought, down from 36% last week.
*4% of the state is in Extreme Drought, down from 6% last week.















*The precipitation that we've received lately is great news for the drought, but much more precipitation is needed to get us back to where we should be.  As of October 20th, 2012 an additional 6-9" of precipitation is needed to get back to normal in Northwest Wisconsin while 3-6" of precipitation is needed in Northeast Minnesota.  Unfortunately, it appears as if were going back into a fairly dry weather pattern for the next 7 days or so.



















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 998mb has moved into Central Lake Superior as of 3 PM.  Widespread snow and rain affected the Northland Today on the backside of this low.  Several inches of wet slushy snow did accumulate Today, especially west-north of the Twin Ports.  High temperatures were in the 30s and 40s with north or west winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

*Here's a radar loop from This Morning.  Blue=snow, the darker the blue the heavier the snow.  So while snow was falling in parts of Minnesota earlier Today, there were severe thunderstorms packing hail and high winds blasting through Northeast Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.  A classic Fall storm!













*Here are the SPC storm reports from Today.  Blue=Damaging Wind.  Green=Large Hail.

















Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A strengthening upper level trough with height falls of 60-120 meters covered the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Western Great Lakes, and Central Plains Today per RAP model analysis.  Very impressive jet stream winds approaching 120 knots extended from the Central Rockies, northeast into the Upper Midwest and Central Canada Today.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from 0 to -6C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (October 25th)

Low pressure strengthens to sub 990mb as it tracks from Central Lake Superior to Northern Ontario.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lingering snow showers and flurries, mainly across Northern Minnesota.  Lows will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees, but a few locations could drop into the teens.  Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (October 26th)

High pressure will cover the Upper Midwest and Plains during this period with deep low pressure up near Hudson Bay.  Flurries could linger into Friday Morning in Northern Minnesota, otherwise it looks dry and cold this period.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the west at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast, Saturday through Monday (October 27th-29th)

Dry weather carries over into Saturday, then Sunday and Monday could feature a few snow showers or mixed rain and snow showers in parts of the Northland, doesn't look like a big system at the moment, but some areas could pick up around a half inch of snow, especially on Sunday.

High temperature forecast:

Saturday:  30s to around 40 degrees.
Sunday:  30s to lower 40s.
Monday:  30s to lower 40s.

Low temperature forecast:

Saturday Night:  Teens and 20s.
Sunday Night:  20s.

Long Range Forecast (October 30th-November 4th)

The big weather story during the next 5-7 days will be with Hurricane Sandy as it makes a rare run toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast U.S. either late this weekend or next week.  This storm has the potential to cause significant damage as well as major flooding.  This storm will be so massive that the effects could reach as far west as the Central/Eastern Great Lakes between October 30th-November 1st with strong winds and possibly some snow or rain for those areas. 

For the Northland, nothing much will be happening, certainly won't be any big storms through November 4th the way it looks now, but a few showers of rain or snow could occur at times.  Temperatures are forecast to be near to below normal.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 37 to 42.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 23 to 28.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 35 to 40.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  47
Low:  32

Sunrise Friday:  7:43 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:02 PM CDT

/Tim/



Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Showers/few t'storms Tonight (severe risk in NW WI) Snow and Rain for Thursday, sticking snow likely for some. Winter Weather headlines may be needed for Tomorrow.

Issued at 3:39 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 24th, 2012

*Snowfall forecast for Thursday per 15z SREF model run.  Snow totals for Tomorrow have been increasing per past few model runs, it now looks like a couple inches of snow will accumulate on Thursday in portions of the Northland.  More info. below.  Legend is on the left side of the map.















*A slight to moderate risk for at least 4" of snow includes Western, Central, and Northern Minnesota on Thursday per HPC.

















Rainfall report for October 23-24, 2012 (ending around 7 AM Today)
Source:  National Weather Service

International Falls, MN:  0.39"
Grand Marais, MN:  1.31"
Hibbing, MN:  0.10"
Bruno, MN:  0.12"
12 N of Isle, MN:  0.13"
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN:  0.45"
Embarrass, MN:  0.12"
Grand Portage, MN:  1.84"
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  0.27"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.40"
3 E of Orr, MN:  0.36"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.66"
Finland, MN:  0.65"
Butternut, WI:  0.22"
Gurney, WI:  0.46"
Madeline Island, WI:  0.64"
Upson, WI:  0.23"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.13"

Weather History:

On this date in 1998:  A record high temperature of 71 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A stationary front is becoming better defined This Afternoon, at 3 PM this front extended from Central Lake Superior through Northcentral and Western Wisconsin, into Southeastern Minnesota with low pressure of 1006mb centered in far Northeast Iowa.  Areas of fog and drizzle persisted through the day in parts of Northwest Wisconsin, fog elsewhere burned off before Noon.  Skies were mostly cloudy Today with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s with a few 60s toward Park Falls and Phillips.  Winds were out of the north, south, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A strong upper level trough continues to move east through the Western U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery with a SW flow in place ahead of this trough across the Plains and Upper Midwest.  Height falls of 60-90 meters were over the Central Rockies This Afternoon per RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +2 to +6C in Northern and Western Minnesota to +8 to +14C in Central, Eastern, and Southern Minnesota.  Note:  A much colder airmass with 850mb temps of -4 to -8C was over parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains Today and this blast of cold air is moving our way.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (October 24th)

A stationary front in Western-Northern Wisconsin will sag a tiny bit to the SE during the night as a wave of low pressure lifts NE out of Iowa.  Occasional showers will be found in the Northland Tonight.  Scattered thunderstorms are also expected, especially in Northwest Wisconsin, into Eastern/Northeastern Minnesota.  There continues to be a risk for a few severe thunderstorms Tonight, mainly east of a line from Shell Lake to Ashland, including Hurley, Park Falls, and the Hayward Lakes.  Favorable wind shear and sufficient amounts of elevated instability in place in those areas could lead to some large hail and damaging winds.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with areas of dense fog, especially in Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows will range from the 30s and 40s in Northern Minnesota to the 50s in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will be out of the south, east, or north at 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (October 25th)

A big change in the weather happens Tomorrow.  Low pressure will intensify as it lifts N-NE out of Central Wisconsin, this low should be centered north of Lake Superior by Tomorrow Evening.  A potent upper trough moving into the Upper Midwest along with an upper level jet of 100-130 knots will help to deepen the surface low on Thursday.  Rain and snow will be falling across the area on Thursday with mainly dry weather returning for Thursday Night.

Rain changing to snow timeline:

(7-10am) Western areas:  International Falls, Northome, Bigfork, Togo, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Walker, Brainerd, and Aitkin.

(10am-1pm) Central areas:  Crane Lake, Ely, Hibbing, Cotton, Floodwood, McGregor, Cloquet, Moose Lake, Duluth~away from Lake Superior, Isabella and through the Arrowhead.

The majority of what falls in Northwestern Wisconsin should be in the form on rain on Thursday, although the rain will proabably end as a rain-snow mix, especially from Superior and Solon Springs, south toward Danbury.

*Total snow accumulations for Thursday*

1-4" for International Falls, Northome, Bigfork, Togo, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Walker, Brainerd, Aitkin, Hibbing, Cotton, Ely, and Crane Lake, also including the Arrowhead-for areas inland from Lake Superior.

Around 1" for the Twin Ports, McGregor, Cloquet, Moose Lake areas.

Note:  The snow could come down heavy enough to create some slippery driving conditions on Thursday so use caution and slow down if you encounter snow/slush covered roads.  A winter weather headline could be needed for portions of the Northland on Thursday.

Highs on Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Thursday Night in the 20s to lower 30s.  North or west winds are expected at 10 to 25 mph.

*500mb VORT forecast for Thursday per 15z SREF model.  Basically the darker colors represent stronger energy, more lift in the atmosphere.  As the upper trough moves overhead Tomorrow, dynamical cooling processes and maximum lift should lead to a rain to snow changeover as colder air gets pulled down to the surface.
















Extended Forecast, Friday through Sunday (October 26th-28th)

High pressure will dominate our weather during this period with generally dry, but cold conditions.  Highs Friday through Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast (October 29th-November 3rd)

Near to below average temperatures are expected during this period.  Still doesn't look like any large storms for the Northland, but certainly can't rule out a few rain/snow showers from time to time.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Occasional showers.  Isolated thunderstorms during the Evening.  Patchy fog.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Breezy and colder.  Rain mixing with and turning to snow by Noon in Proctor, Hermantown, and Pike Lake with 1-2" of total snow accumulation possible.  Rain for Lakeside locations possibly mixing with snow during the Afternoon.  High 40 to 45 with temperatures falling into the 30s.  Wind north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 35 to 40.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 35 to 40.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  48
Low:  32

Sunrise Thursday:  7:42 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   6:03 PM CDT

Tim











Morning weather update regarding the severe potential for later Today and maybe some snow on Thursday.

Issued at 10:11 AM CDT, Wednesday, October 24th, 2012

...Morning weather update regarding the potential for severe weather later Today and snow on Thursday...

*Surface observations as of 9:43 AM CDT.  Upper teens and 20s showing up in Montana with 70s in Southern Iowa This Morning, wow!




















At 9 AM CDT:  A stationary front extended from Western Lake Superior to Northwest Wisconsin to Southeast Minnesota and Central Iowa. A spring like airmass exists near and ahead of this boundary with mid-Morning temperatures already in the 50s and 60s with even some 70s further south in Iowa.  Meanwhile, a load of very cold air covered the Northern Rockies and spilling over into portions of the Dakotas where 9 AM temperatures were in the teens, 20s, and lower 30s.

Not much is happening in terms of precipitation This Morning, but that should be changing This Afternoon and Tonight as energy in the form of a potent upper level trough and strong jet stream winds head E/NE out of the Rockies.  The stationary front south-east of the Twin Ports should become better defined later Today and Tonight as that energy to our W/SW spreads into the Upper Midwest.  This should lead to increasing amounts of showers by This Afternoon and Tonight across Northeast and East Central Minnesota and all of Northwest Wisconsin.

*This Morning's water vapor satellite loop.  This pretty much tells the story, a nice deep trough to our west, note the darkening in Central California, Nevada, and Western Utah.  A nice "U shape" configuration.
















Scattered thunderstorms should develop as well due to a warm/moist/unstable airmass riding up and over that stationary front in Northwest Wisconsin.  Elevated CAPE is forecast to range from 500-1000 j/kg in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota This Afternoon-Evening, this along with 30-50 knots of wind shear combined with strong winds aloft and a decent low level jet could foster the development of a few severe thunderstorms across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota from This Afternoon into late Tonight.

The main hazards from any severe storms this far north should be from large hail (1" or greater in diameter) and damaging winds (60 mph or greater)  The risk for tornadoes is pretty low, although an isolated tornado threat may evolve between 4 PM-8PM Today, mainly in Sawyer and Price Counties Wisconsin, including the Hayward Lakes, Winter, Park Falls, and Phillips areas.

*Today's tornado risk per 8am update from the Storm Prediction Center.














*Large hail risk for Today.
















*Damaging wind risk for Today.















As we move forward to Thursday, low pressure will deepen across the Western Great Lakes with cold air getting drawn into the backside of this low.  There remains some uncertainty as to how fast the cold air moves in, and how soon the deeper moisture moves out...But, if the two come together (cold + deep moisture) then a period of snow could develop in parts of the Northland. 

Right now it looks like the rain will start to mix with snow Tomorrow Morning in Northcentral Minnesota, including the Iron Range and Brainerd Lakes area as the cold air moves in and thickness values lower.  Whether or not a complete change-over to snow can occur before the precipitation departs remains to be seen.  However, if a period of snow were to occur it still looks like the best chance would be from the Arrowhead and Iron Range, down toward the Brainerd Lakes...Generally along and west of a line from Hinckley-Duluth-Grand Marais.  1-2" of snow (maybe a little more) is possible on Thursday in the areas I mentioned above.

*HPC's 4" or greater snowfall forecast for Thursday.  Slight to Moderate chances do include areas west-north of Duluth.















*There's even a small area in far Northern Minnesota outlined in a Slight risk area to receive at least 8" of snow on Thursday.  (Source, HPC)

















Stay tuned for additional updates.

/Tim/

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

*ALERT* Dense Fog Advisory Tonight-Wednesday AM. Rain; Severe t'storms; Isolated tornadoes and some snow? Lots to discuss in Today's blog; Oh and an EF1 Tornado in California on Monday!

Issued at 3:45 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 23rd, 2012

*Conditions look favorable for the development of a few severe thunderstorms Wednesday Afternoon/Night from Central Iowa to Southern Minnesota and Western-Central Wisconsin.  The map below is from the SREF model (15z run) This is the calibrated severe weather probability forecast for Wednesday PM.  (Source, SPC)
















*DENSE FOG ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service

A dense fog advisory is in effect from 10 PM CDT Tonight until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for the entire Northland. 

Counties included are:

Koochiching MN
Itasca MN
Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Aitkin MN
Pine MN
Carlton MN
St. Louis MN
Lake MN
Cook MN

Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI

Some cities included in the advisory:

International Falls MN...Grand Rapids MN...Walker MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Pine City MN...Moose Lake MN...Duluth MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Grand Marais MN.  Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Hurley WI...Siren WI...Spooner WI...Hayward WI...Park Falls WI.

Discussion:  Fog becoming widespread and dense Tonight and Wednesday Morning.  Visibility down to a quarter mile or less at times.

Impacts:  The dense fog will create hazardous driving conditions.

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be reduced to less than one quarter mile.  If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

*Yup, going to be a foggy one Tonight into Wednesday AM.  The areas shaded in gray are under a dense fog advisory from 10 PM Tonight until 10 AM Wednesday.  Use extreme caution if you will be driving.  (Source, NWS Duluth)
















Weather Tidbits:

*Today is the 1st day since October 13th with a high temperature failing to reach at least 50F at Duluth, Minnesota.  9 consecutive days (14-22) with a high temperature of at least 50F comes to an end Today.

*The average monthly temperature at Duluth, MN thru the 22nd:  44.2F which was 0.8 degrees below average.  Looks like October will be the first month since June 2011 that'll finish with a below average monthly temperature.

*0.76" of precipitation at Duluth, MN ending on October 22nd.  This is 1.39" below average.

*7 tornado reports in Central California on Monday per Storm Prediction Center.  One of the tornadoes 3 S of Yuba City was rated an EF1 with peak winds up to 128 mph per National Weather Service.

*Over a half dozen tornado reports in the Northern 1/2 of California on Monday.  (Source, SPC)















Rainfall report for October 22-23, 2012 (ending around 7 AM Today)
Source:  National Weather Service

International Falls, MN:  0.68"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.15"
Northome, MN:  0.19"
Babbitt, MN:  0.27"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.18"
Gordon, WI:  0.10"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.25"
Washburn, WI:  0.70"

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1008mb was centered in Southern Saskatchewan with a 1004mb low in Southern North Dakota.  A warm front has lifted north into Southern Minnesota as of 3 PM.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms occurred from late last night through Today north of that warm front in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with even 1 report of small hail at 9:26 AM Today, 8 E of Winter, WI (Sawyer County) 0.25" HAIL.  Skies were overcast and there was plenty of drizzle and fog with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s.  Winds were out of the east at 5 to 15 mph with gusts topping 30 mph near Lake Superior thanks to a tight pressure gradient between a 1026mb high up near Hudson Bay and the multiple lows to our west-southwest.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A southwesterly flow continued Today across the Upper Midwest as a large upper level trough remains over the Western U.S., a corridor of strong winds aloft (120-140 knots) was found at the base of the H5 trough from Northern California to Wyoming per RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +10 to +12C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (October 23rd)

The main weather headlines for Tonight will be the fog and drizzle.  A very moist airmass will remain over the Northland Tonight with a warm front continuing to inch north out of Southern Minnesota while low pressure passes well to our NW with a cold front pushing east out of the Northern Plains.  A few showers or isolated thunderstorms could continue especially before Midnight, but the bigger story will be the fog which will be dense Tonight with visibilities of 1/4 mile or less.  Lows are forecast to be on the mild side for late October with 40s and 50s in our area.  Winds will be from the south, east, or west at 5 to 15 mph with stronger gusts This Evening near Lake Superior.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (October 24th)

A cold front will become stationary from Southern Minnesota to Northern Wisconsin as low pressure rides NE out of the Central Plains, tracking along that stalled front.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected on Wednesday with areas of dense fog lingering into the Morning hours.  Rain/shower chances will increase from southwest to northeast as we move from Wednesday Afternoon-Evening, and through the Overnight hours.  A few thunderstorms could develop as well, especially in Northwest Wisconsin and far Eastern Minnesota. 

Note:  There's at least a small chance for severe thunderstorms late Wednesday Afternoon-Evening in Northwest Wisconsin, mainly from Spooner and Ashland, east to Hurley, and south to Park Falls, and west to Hayward.  Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the main hazards at this time.

Highs on Wednesday will range from the 50s and 60s across Northwest Wisconsin to the 40s and 50s in Northern/Eastern Minnesota.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s in Northern Minnesota to the 50s in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will be out of the south, east, or north at 10 to 20 mph.

*Favorable wind shear, strong winds aloft, a decent low level jet, combined with enough moisture and instability could result in a few rotating supercells Wednesday Afternoon/Evening from Iowa, Southern Minnesota, into Central Wisconsin.  This is the 15z SREF tornado conditions index for late Wednesday Afternoon, some very high numbers showing up in the areas I mentioned above.  Isolated tornadoes could develop on Wednesday.  (Source, SPC)
















Extended Forecast, Thursday through Saturday (October 25th-27th)

Low pressure will deepen on Thursday as an upper level trough along with a 110-130 knot jet moves into the Upper Midwest.  Thursday is a day that'll have to be watched closely as there seems to be a snowier scenario starting to show up on the computer models. 

Cold air will sweep in from the west, and if the deeper moisture hangs around long enough, then there certainly could be a couple inches of snow on Thursday in portions of the Northland.  However, if the deeper moisture exits before the cold air moves in, then little to no snow would occur.  Stay tuned.

At the moment it looks like will see some rain Thursday Morning, then as the air cools and thickness values lower, the rain could become mixed with and or change to snow in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Note:  The transition will occur from west to east as the surface pulls away.

1-2" of snow (maybe a little more) could accumulate on Thursday, mainly west of a Hinckley-Duluth-Grand Marais line.  The Iron Range, southwest to the Brainerd Lakes looks to be in the greatest threat zone for picking up some sticking snow on Thursday based on the latest model data.

A few snow flurries might linger into Thursday Night, then it looks mainly dry for Friday-Saturday.

High temperature forecast:

Thursday:  30s and 40s with 50s and 60s in Northwest Wisconsin.
Friday:  30s and 40s.
Saturday:  30s and 40s.

Low temperature forecast:

Thursday Night:  20s and 30s.
Friday Night:  20s and 30s.

*HPC's precipitation forecast valid for 7 PM Wednesday through 7 PM Thursday.  Finally some decent totals in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, perhaps a half inch or more of precipitation by Thursday PM.  















*1.0" or greater snowfall forecast for Thursday per HPC.  Still seeing 20-40% chances for snow accumulations of at least an inch in Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota on Thursday.  (Source, HPC)
















Long Range Forecast (October 28th-November 2nd)

Below to near normal temperatures are forecast through this period.  There is a possibility for a few rain or snow showers at times, but no big storms are showing up in the long range forecast models.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*DENSE FOG ADVISORY 10 PM Tonight until 10 AM Wednesday*

.Tonight...  Dense fog and drizzle.  A few showers possible before Midnight.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph, becoming southwest Overnight.

.Wednesday...  Areas of fog during the Morning.  Considerable cloudiness.  Showers possible later in the day.  High 52 to 57.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Occasional rain.  Isolated thunderstorms possible during the Evening.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Colder.  Occasional rain...The rain could become mixed with snow during the Afternoon.  High 40 to 45 with temperatures falling into the 30s.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 35 to 40.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 35 to 40.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  48
Low:  33

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:40 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   6:05 PM CDT

Tim








Monday, October 22, 2012

Looks a little rainy at times through Thursday; Colder air set to arrive later this week. SREF model tornado forecast map for Wed; And the U.S. snow depth map included in Today's blog. Happy Monday!

Issued at 3:50 PM CDT, Monday, October 22nd, 2012

*I had to dig out the tornado conditions index map for what will probably be the last time until next Spring.  Here's the 15z SREF model tornado forecast for Wednesday PM, October 24th, 2012.  Some decent numbers showing up in Iowa, Southern Minnesota, and Central Wisconsin.  Certainly something to keep an eye on for Wednesday.  
















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1008mb was in Southeast Nebraska with high pressure of 1022mb over Southeast Manitoba as of 3 PM.  A stationary front stretched from Southern Kansas to Central Iowa to the Wisconsin-Illinois state line, this front has been the focus for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours Today in parts of Iowa, Southeast Minnesota, Southern Wisconsin, and Northern Illinois.  Our area was too far north of this boundary Today, and as a result we saw little to no rain Today, but we did have plenty of clouds with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s, but 60s made an appearance in Southeast parts of Northwest Wisconsin, mainly in Price County.  Winds Today were out of the north or east at 10 to 20 mph.

*A 12 hour enhanced satellite loop, from 3 AM to 3 PM Today.  Note the darker colors (colder cloud tops) in portions of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Wisconsin Today...Some heavier rain/t'storms for those folks.
















Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A large upper trough continued to move into the Western U.S. while a SW flow covered the Plains and Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery, a few disturbances have ejected out of that Western U.S. trough and are currently moving NE through the Central Plains and the Southern-Central Great Lakes.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +2 to 8C in Northern Minnesota to +10 to +12C in Central and Southern Minnesota.

*U.S. snow depth map as of 22 October, 2012.  1.4% of the U.S. is covered by snow vs. 0.4% at this time last year.  (NOHRSC)













Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (October 22nd)

An area of low pressure will be centered well to our W/SW with a stationary front remaining over Iowa.  Warm advection and increasing amounts of elevated instability will be spreading north into our area Tonight, and this should lead to some showers and isolated thunderstorms in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Patchy fog and drizzle can't be ruled out either.  Lows will mainly be in the 40s to around 50 degrees, but a few 30s are possible in the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north or east winds at 10 to 20 mph.

*Rainfall forecast from the HPC, this is valid until 7 PM Tuesday.  Rain that we get in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin shouldn't amount to much with totals of 0.10" or less.  There are additional rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday, hopefully that will be be somewhat heavier compared to what we see Tonight and Tuesday.















Tuesday and Tuesday Night (October 23rd)

A warm front will lift a bit toward the north with low pressure passing west-north of the Northland.  Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms should continue into Tomorrow Evening with mainly dry conditions during the Overnight hours.  Patchy fog and drizzle could continue as well, especially on Tuesday.  High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tomorrow Night holding nearly steady from Tuesday's highs.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this period.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph on Tuesday, and out of the north, west, or south Tuesday Night at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast, Wednesday through Friday (October 24th-26th)

A vigorous upper level trough will be moving east and will pass through the Upper Midwest Wednesday and Thursday.  Low pressure/s is forecast to move NE out of the Central Plains and into the Great Lakes bringing with it the possibility of some more rain to the Northland for Wednesday and Thursday.  Isolated thunderstorms could also persist into Wednesday, especially in Northwestern Wisconsin. 

Colder air sweeps in from the west on Thursday with the entire area in a pretty chilly airmass come Friday.  It should dry out Thursday Night into Friday, but on Thursday there is a potential that the rain could mix with or change to a period of snow in parts of the Northland, but this will depend on how soon the cold air moves in, and how fast the rain area moves out.

Note:  At this time it still doesn't look like will see a lot of heavy rainfall in our area, but will take what we can get at this point.  As for snow accumulations, if it does snow for a time on Thursday that too shouldn't amount to very much, perhaps up to 1" in a few spots.

*1.0" or greater snowfall forecast for Thursday, October 27th per HPC.  Most of Western, Central, and Northern Minnesota (west of Duluth) is in a 20-30% chance to receive an inch or so of snow on Thursday. 
















High temperature forecast:

Wednesday:  50s and 60s.
Thursday:  30s and 40s with 50s around the Hayward Lakes and Park Falls area in Northwest Wisconsin.
Friday:  30s and 40s.

Low temperature forecast:

Wednesday Night:  30s and 40s.
Thursday Night:  20s and 30s.

Long Range Forecast (October 27th-November 1st)

Not much going on in the Northland during this period, all eyes will be focused on what may or may not happen over the Eastern U.S. Epic storm for the East Coast next week, or will it remain offshore? Too early to tell at this point.  As for our area, below average temperatures are forecast from 10/27-11/1, a few showers of snow and or rain cannot be ruled out from time to time, but no big storms are on the horizon.  

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Breezy.  Occasional showers developing.  Isolated thunderstorms possible along with areas of drizzle and fog.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible at times.  Patchy fog and drizzle.  High 45 to 50.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers possible, mainly early.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind becoming west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  Showers possible late.  High 50 to 55.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Some rain possible.  Low 40 to 45.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Some rain possible.  High 45 to 50 with temperatures falling into the 30s.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 27 to 32.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  Colder.  High 35 to 40.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  49
Low:  33

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:39 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   6:07 PM CDT

Tim




Sunday, October 21, 2012

A showery week ahead; Maybe a few t'storms to boot; Cold air hits late this week; Lake effect snow possible for the South Shore of Lake Superior in NW WI Oct.27-29

Issued at 3:45 PM CDT, Sunday, October 21st, 2012

*6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.  This is valid for October 27-31, 2012.  Pretty good odds for below average temperatures for Minnesota and Wisconsin, and in any area that is shaded in blue.  The legend is on the bottom of the map.



















High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

October 14-20, 2012

10/14:  54F/1 degree above normal
10/15:  57F/5 degrees above normal
10/16:  66F/14 degrees above normal
10/17:  54F/3 degrees above normal
10/18:  53F/2 degrees above normal
10/19:  51F/1 degree above normal
10/20:  53F/3 degrees above normal

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

October 14-20, 2012

10/14:  39F/3 degrees above normal
10/15:  28F/7 degrees below normal
10/16:  43F/8 degrees above normal
10/17:  44F/9 degrees above normal
10/18:  34F/10 degrees above normal
10/19:  37F/3 degrees above normal
10/20:  30F/4 degrees below normal

*Temperature departure map for October 14-20, 2012.  Temperatures last week were about a degree above normal in Duluth.



















Precipitation total for October 14-20, 2012:  0.32"
Average:  0.63"
Departure from average:  0.31" below normal.

*Precipitation departure map for October 14-20, 2012.  Note the wetter than normal conditions east and west of the Twin Ports where precip totals ranged from 150-750% of normal, while Eastcentral Minnesota and the Twin Ports saw just 25-50% of their average precipitation last week.



















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold front has moved into Western Minnesota as of 3 PM.  Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy ahead of this front in the Northland Today and there's been some light showers or sprinkles passing through sections of Northern Minnesota.  Highs ranged from the 40s around the head of Lake Superior and along portions of the North Shore, with 50s and 60s elsewhere.  Winds were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A southwest flow covered the Upper Midwest per RAP model analysis with a couple of disturbances moving NE out of the Southwest U.S. and Central Plains per water vapor satellite imagery.  A much larger upper trough is digging S/SE out of the Northeast Pacific and into the Northwest U.S. Today.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +6 to +8C in Northern and Central Minnesota to +10 to +16C in Southern and Eastern Minnesota.  Note:  Much colder air was over Western Canada with mid-Afternoon H85 temperatures of just -2 to -8C from Alberta, east to Manitoba.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (October 21st)

A cold front will move east and through our area during the night.  A couple of showers or sprinkles could develop as this front moves through, but the majority of the area will remain dry.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast and some patchy fog can't be ruled out later in the night.  Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with south, east, or north winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Monday and Monday Night (October 22nd)

Tonight's cold front will begin to stall out south/east of the Northland as a low pressure disturbance tracks E-NE across the Plains.  Occasional showers are possible during this period in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin under a partly to mostly cloudy sky.  Highs on Monday will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Lows Monday Night will mainly be in the 40s.  Winds will be out of the north or east at 10 to 20 mph.

*Rainfall forecast for 7 PM Monday through 7 PM Tuesday per HPC.  Looks like another minor rain event for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with totals generally 1/4" or less.  Look for additional rain chances Wednesday and Thursday, but amounts don't look overly impressive at this time.















Extended Forecast, Tuesday through Thursday (October 23rd-25th)

An upper level low will  be centered to our NW while a southwest mid/upper level flow will be in place from the Plains to the Upper Midwest as an upper level trough remains over the Western U.S.  Individual disturbances and surface lows ejecting out of the Western trough, combined with a frontal boundary near or south-east of the Northland should result in the development of some rain at times from Tuesday through Thursday.  It still doesn't look like much of a heavy rain threat at this time, but isolated thunderstorms could develop through this period, and any thunderstorm could drop brief heavy downpours, but those should be few and far between.

High temperature forecast:

Tuesday:  40s and 50s.
Wednesday:  50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.
Thursday:  40s and 50s.

Low temperature forecast:

Tuesday Night:  40s.
Wednesday Night:  40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast (October 26th-31st)

It continues to look plenty cold in the Northland as we close out the month of October, but there really isn't much in the way of precipitation to talk about during this period as a northwest or north-northwest flow develops in the Upper Midwest.  The biggest issue could be the development of some lake effect snow along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin from October 27th-29th as a powerful storm system moves NW off the Atlantic Ocean and into the Eastern U.S. and Eastern Canada.  Cold air and north winds on the backside of this system may lead to some accumulating snow in the Northwest Wisconsin snow belts during the upcoming weekend.  Stay tuned! For the rest us, there could be some flurries from time to time between the 26th-31st, but again no big storms are expected at this time.  Below normal temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph, becoming north.

.Monday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Late day showers possible.  High 50 to 55.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible at times.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible at times.  High 45 to 50.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 42 to 47.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 47 to 52.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  49
Low:  33

Sunrise Monday:  7:37 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   6:08 PM CDT

Tim