Saturday, September 29, 2012

80s were common in parts of Minnesota Today, but 50s prevailed near Lake Superior. A few showers late Sunday Night-Monday AM; Turning colder late next week.

Issued at 3:50 PM CDT, Saturday, September 29th, 2012

Weather Tidbits:

*80s in portions of Minnesota Today.  Here are some temperatures from 3 PM Today:  Fosston 88F; Morris 84F; St. Cloud 84F; Fergus Falls 84F; Hallock 84F; Roseau 82F; Mankato 82F.

*45 Counties in Minnesota are in severe or extreme drought as of September 25th.  (Paul Douglas St Cloud Times)

*77% of Minnesota is in moderate drought as of September 25th, this is up from just 13% three months ago. (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*More than 35% of Minnesota is in severe or extreme drought this week.  This is the largest total since Fall of 2006.  Only Cook County in Northeast Minnesota wasn't in any kind of drought or abnormally dry conditions this week.  (Paul Douglas St Cloud Times)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

The marine layer increased Today resulting in cool temperatures closer to Lake Superior where highs were in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Farther away from Lake Superior it was another gorgeous autumn day with very warm temperatures with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees.  Skies were mainly sunny Today, but there has been an area of low clouds and fog around the Bayfield Peninsula and in Northern Ashland County in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

An upper low is moving through the Eastern Great Lakes with another disturbance lifting northeast out of Eastern Montana per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +10 to +16C across Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (September 29th)

Clear-partly cloudy skies will continue with patchy low clouds/fog possible at times near Lake Superior.  Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with north or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (September 30th)

The month of September will end on a mild note if you're away from Lake Superior.  Sunny to partly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow with partly to mostly cloudy skies for Sunday Night.  A cold front will move east out of the Dakotas and into/through most of Minnesota Sunday Night.  There really won't be much moisture to meet up with the approaching cold front, but a few rain showers may still develop Sunday Night in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Sunday will range from the 50s and 60s near Lake Superior to the 70s and maybe even a few 80s for the remainder of the Northland.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s to lower 50s.  East or southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph are expected on Sunday with north, south, or east winds Sunday Night at 5 to 15 mph.

*Rainfall forecast for Sunday Night-Monday per HPC.  Looks like any rain that we get in Minnesota and Western Wisconsin won't amount to much more than a trace to around 0.05".















Extended Forecast, Monday through Wednesday (October 1st-3rd)

A few showers are possible in our area on Monday as a cold front continues to move E-SE through the Upper Midwest.  It dries out Monday Night into Tuesday, and then another chance for showers enters the picture for Tuesday Night and Wednesday as a cold front heads into Minnesota.  High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60s with a few 70s even possible on Tuesday.  Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will mainly be in the 40s.  High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Long Range Forecast (October 4th-9th)

The pattern which gave the Northland cold temperatures and to some the season's 1st measurable snowfall back on September 21st-22nd looks to return through this period as a N/NW flow tightens it's grip over the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Central Canada.  Unfortunately with this type of pattern, the prospects for a widespread/significant precipitation event are on the low side since the Gulf Of Mexico will be cut-off.  Instead will probably see a few systems drop SE out of Canada, and those disturbances could bring some snow and or rain showers to our area at times from the 4th-9th along with below average temperatures the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Patchy fog possible early.  Mostly sunny.  High 64 to 69 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers possible after Midnight.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph becoming north.

.Monday...  Showers possible during the Morning.  Partly sunny.  High 63 to 68.

.Monday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Wednesday...  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  59
Low:  41

Sunrise Sunday:  7:07 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   6:49 PM CDT

Tim


Friday, September 28, 2012

30s and 40s for daytime HIGHS in Minnesota late next week? Just how many severe weather reports were there in MN and WI this year, answers in the blog; And Fall colors are peaking pretty close to when they should be in NE Minnesota.

Issued at 3:04 PM CDT, Friday, September 28th, 2012

*My oh my what do we have here?  Wow that looks awfully cold! 12z EUROPEAN model for next Friday, October 5th, 2012.  Note the darker blues, even some purple colors over the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and Canada for next Friday, this may mean high temperatures only in the 30s and 40s in most of Minnesota late next week.  Stay tuned!















*571 reports of severe weather in Minnesota this year per Storm Prediction Center.

Damaging Wind (Blue dots)  304 reports
Large Hail (Green dots)  234 reports
Tornadoes (Red dots)  35
 



















*A quieter year for severe weather in Wisconsin with 352 severe weather reports per Storm Prediction Center.

Damaging Wind:  352
Large Hail:  229
Tornadoes:  3


 






















Weather Tidbits:

*Today is day number 11 so far this month with a maximum temperature of at least 70F.  This matches last September's total.

*The average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota for September (ending on the 27th) 56.4F which is 0.3 degrees warmer than normal.  It does appear that September will finish above average making it the 15th month in a row to do so.  The last month that was below average was June 2011.

*331 months in a row where the Global temperature exceeded the 20th century average per NASA and GISS.  (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*Take advantage of the nice weather this weekend, get outside and look at the foliage! All of Northern-Northeast Minnesota seeing anywhere from 50-100% color change as of Today per MNDNR.  



















*Fall colors are peaking close to when they should be.  Mid September to early October is peak times for most of Northern Minnesota.  In Duluth proper it's usually in late September/early October (Basically right on schedule this year)













Fall Color report for Northwest Wisconsin
Source:  Travelwisconsin.com

Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties have up to 75% color change.
Sawyer and Price Counties have up to 100% color change.
Burnett County has up to 50% color change.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A great early fall day across the Northland as high pressure of 1022mb maintains control on our weather.  Skies were partly to mostly sunny, winds were out of the south or northeast at 5 to 15 mph, and high temperatures warmed into the upper 60s and 70s which is around 10-15 degrees above normal for late September.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Winds aloft are weak in the Upper Midwest and are coming in from the N/NW per RAP model analysis.  Stronger mid/upper level winds were confined to portions of Canada and the Southern U.S.  850mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from +10 to +14C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (September 28th)

A cold front currently in Southern Ontario will drop south and move through the Northland during the night.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the 40s to lower 50s, but a few 30s are possible as well.  Winds will swing around to the north/east at 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (September 29th)

High pressure will be centered to our north with a dry 10-20 mph east-northeast wind covering our area.  Partly cloudy to clear skies are on tap with highs Tomorrow in the 60s and 70s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Extended Forecast, Sunday through Tuesday (September 30th-October 2nd)

Sunday looks dry with highs in the 60s and 70s, except for slightly cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  A cold front moves through the area Sunday Night-Monday Morning, could see a few rain showers as this front moves through.  Another cold front approaches the Upper Midwest for next Tuesday, a few rain showers could occur as that front passes through.  High temps on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s.  Low temperatures Sunday Night and Monday Night will mainly be in the 40s.

Long Range Forecast (October 3rd-8th)

The big news during this portion of the forecast will be the return to some pretty cold air.  Over the past few days the long range computer models have hinted at a return to below normal temperatures in the Northland, and Today's model guidance I.E. GFS and EUROPEAN still support this solution.  Whether or not we see some sort of low pressure system take shape ahead of the cold air remains to be seen, and the forecast models have been in poor agreement recently for late next week, mainly in the October 4-6 time frame.  So as I mentioned above, it does look like below average temperatures will return to the region through this whole period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 41 to 46.  Wind east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly sunny.  High 62 to 67, a little cooler closer to Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 63 to 68, but a little cooler closer to Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers possible late.  Low 43 to 48.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  Morning showers possible.  High 63 to 68.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 63 to 68.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  60
Low:  41

Sunrise Saturday:  7:05 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   6:51 PM CDT

Tim

"7 lbs Shady Nooks Grass Seed Mix" (Google Affiliate Ad)


Thursday, September 27, 2012

77% of Minnesota and 61% of Wisconsin in drought this week details below; 70s and sunshine on Friday; Colder later next week?

Issued at 3:49 PM CDT, Thursday, September 27th, 2012

*Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index as of September 22nd, 2012 shows that anywhere from 9-15" of additional precipitation is needed to get back to average across the Northwest half of Minnesota.  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin needs 3-6" of additional precipitation to get back to average.
















Drought continues to expand across the Northland.

*Drought monitor as of September 25th, 2012*
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

For Minnesota:

Abnormally Dry:  98% this week, up from 96% one week ago.
Moderate Drought:  77% this week, up from 64% last week.
Severe Drought:  35% this week, up from 28% last week.
Extreme Drought:  18% this week, up from 4% last week.

*Drought Monitor map for Minnesota
















For Wisconsin:

Abnormally Dry:  99% this week, down from 100% last week.
Moderate Drought:  61% this week, up from 58% last week.
Severe Drought:  35% this week, up from 28% last week.
Extreme Drought:  8% this week, up from 5% last week.















Low temperature report for September 27th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service

International Falls, MN:  24F
Brainerd, MN:  30F
Hibbing, MN:  23F
Ashland, WI:  26F
Hayward, WI:  24F
Two Harbors, MN:  28F
Silver Bay, MN:  23F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport)  27F
Ely, MN:  25F
Cook, MN:  25F
Crane Lake, MN:  25F
Eveleth, MN:  27F
Bigfork, MN:  25F
Grand Rapids, MN:  27F
Hinckley, MN:  27F
Superior, WI:  27F
Siren, WI:  28F
Phillips, WI:  28F
Togo, MN:  22F
Babbitt, MN:  24F
Embarrass, MN:  19F
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  28F
3 E of Orr, MN:  26F
2 S of Tower, MN:  25F
Butternut, WI:  26F
Upson, WI:  26F
Solon Springs, WI:  28F
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  28F

Weather Tidbits:

*As of September 25th, 2012 there have been 724 tornadoes in the U.S.  Last year, there were 1,692 tornadoes up through September 25th.  (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*On this date in 1991:  A record low temperature of 27 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1024mb covered the Great Lakes.  Skies were mainly sunny Today with high temperatures generally in the 60s.  Winds were variable in direction at around 10 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A west-northwest flow is in place across the Upper Midwest per RAP model analysis.  An upper level disturbance was over the Northern Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +8 to +14C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Friday Night (September 27th-28th)

High pressure continues to dominate our weather resulting in clear-partly cloudy skies.  Lows Tonight and Friday Night will be in the 30s and 40s, but a few 20s can't be ruled out in the typical cold spots.  Highs on Friday will be in the 60s and 70s.  Winds will be out of the south, west, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast, Saturday through Monday (September 29th-October 1st)

Looks dry Saturday and Sunday, and then a few showers could enter the picture for next Monday as a cold front settles into the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s during this period with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night mainly in the 40s.  Note:  It still looks like will see a lake breeze at times this weekend along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior which will result in slightly cooler temperatures compared to inland locations.

Long Range Forecast (October 2nd-7th)

The computer models are beginning to hint at a possible cool-down with below average temperatures from October 4-7, so that'll be something to keep an eye on in coming days, other than that there really isn't much to talk about during this period.  Still looks pretty dry for the most part with just a chance for a few rain showers during the middle of next week as another cold front cuts through the region.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Friday...  Mostly sunny.  Mild.  High 71 to 76.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 42 to 47.  Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly sunny.  High 61 to 66.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 43 to 48.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 62 to 67.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  60
Low:  42

Sunrise Friday:  7:04 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:53 PM CDT

Tim

"Classic Leaf Rake" (Google Affiliate Ad)




Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Rain late NEXT week? Bone dry until then; A pleasant autumn weather pattern continues thru the weekend.

Issued at 3:30 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 26th, 2012

*Here's a map showing the coldest low temperature from September 1-25, 2012.  Note the pockets of warmer temperatures, 1 over the Twin Cities, the other along portions of the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota.  (Map from MPR Updraft blog)



















Weather Tidbits:

*2nd driest September on record at Minneapolis/St. Paul.  0.30" of precipitation has fallen so far this month.  The record driest September occurred in 1882 with 0.27" of precipitation.  (Updraft; MPR)

*Still waiting for the 1st official 32 degree low temperature of the season at Duluth, Minnesota.  We've gotten close to the freezing mark 4 times this month (33F) but have failed to drop 1 more degree to 32.  Last year, September 15th was the 1st time with a low temperature of 32F, so were running over a week later this year compared to last.

Low temperature report for September 26th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service

Duluth, MN:  34F
International Falls, MN:  28F
Brainerd, MN:  31F
Hibbing, MN:  24F
Hayward, WI:  27F
Two Harbors, MN:  32F
Silver Bay, MN:  25F
Ely, MN:  28F
Crane Lake, MN:  28F
Cook, MN:  28F
Bigfork, MN:  27F
Grand Rapids, MN:  28F
Pine River, MN:  27F
Aitkin, MN:  27F
Phillips, WI:  28F
3 E of Wright, MN:  28F
Cass Lake, MN:  28F
Northome, MN:  26F
Embarrass, MN:  23F
Floodwood, MN:  25F
2 S of Tower, MN:  26F
Butternut, WI:  27F
Gurney, WI:  29F
Upson, WI:  29F
Winter, WI:  28F

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1020-1022mb covered the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Today.  Skies were partly to mostly sunny with highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Winds were out of the north, east, or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest flow continued in the Upper Midwest with upper lows over the Southcentral Rockies and Northwest Montana per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +4 to +8C in Western-Southern Minnesota to +2C elsewhere.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Thursday Night (September 26th-27th)

High pressure continues to control our weather resulting in clear to partly cloudy skies.  Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s with some 20s in the typical cold spots.  Highs on Thursday will mainly be in the 60s.  Winds will be out of the north, west, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast, Friday through Sunday (September 28th-30th)

Still dry during this period with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s, lows will mainly be in the 40s.  A lake breeze is possible at times along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior which could keep high temperatures somewhat cooler versus inland locations.

Long Range Forecast (October 1st-6th)

May see a few cold frontal passages during the early/mid part of next week, but little if any rain is expected at this time.  A better chance for rain is looming for late next week/weekend (5th-6th)  As a trough develops over the Western U.S. which will setup a SW flow aloft in the Plains and Great Lakes.  Temperatures are forecast to be near to above normal through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 34 to 39.  Wind north to northeast around 10 mph.

.Thursday...  Mostly sunny.  High 61 to 66.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind south around 10 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 61 to 66.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  61
Low:  42

Sunrise Thursday:  7:03 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   6:55 PM CDT

Tim

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Dry through the middle of next week; A pleasant fall weather pattern for the Northland.

Issued at 3:42 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 25th, 2012

*Record Event*
Source:  National Weather Service

A record low temperature occurred at International Falls, Minnesota on Sunday, September 23rd, 2012.  The low temperature was 21 degrees which broke the previous record low of 24 degrees set in 1995.

Low temperature report for September 25th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service

Duluth, MN:  33F
International Falls, MN:  25F
Hibbing, MN:  25F
Hayward, WI:  32F
Two Harbors, MN:  32F
Silver Bay, MN:  25F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport)  27F
Ely, MN:  25F
Orr, MN:  27F
Crane Lake, MN:  25F
Bigfork, MN:  25F
Cook, MN:  27F
Eveleth, MN:  28F
Grand Rapids, MN:  30F
Longville, MN:  28F
Pine River, MN:  30F
Aitkin, MN:  28F
Moose Lake, MN:  32F
Cloquet, MN:  32F
McGregor, MN:  32F
Superior, WI:  28F
Upson, WI:  29F
3 E of Wright, MN:  29F
Cass Lake, MN:  29F
Northome, MN:  28F
Embarrass, MN:  23F
Floodwood, MN:  26F
Kabetogama, MN:  29F
3 E of Orr, MN:  27F
Finland, MN:  32F

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

As advertised, Today was a cooler day compared to Monday with highs in the 50s with a few lower 60s in Southern parts of the area.  Skies were partly to mostly cloudy with winds out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest per RAP model analysis while an upper level low churns over the Central Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from 0C across Northern Minnesota to +2 to +12C over the rest of the state.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Wednesday Night (September 25th-26th)

High pressure dominates through this period.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with partly cloudy skies Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.  May see a few brief light showers/sprinkles This Evening over the Iron Range and Arrowhead.  Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Wednesday in the 50s to lower 60s.  Wednesday Night's low temperature will be mainly in the 30s, but some 20s are still possible in the traditional cold spots.

Extended Forecast, Thursday through Saturday (September 27th-29th)

The pattern amplifies a bit during this period with upper lows to our west and east with an upper level ridge to our northwest.  Still looks dry in the Northland with high temperatures mainly in the 60s from Thursday through Saturday with a few 70s even possible.  Low temperatures Thursday Night and Friday Night will mainly be in the 40s.  Note:  A lake breeze is possible at times during this period along and near the North and South Shore of Lake Superior which may keep high temperatures a bit lower compared to inland locations.

Long Range Forecast (September 30th-October 5th)

Dry.  Dry.  Dry.  Yup it's looking pretty dry right into next week, although there continues to be some trends showing up for a weather system giving the Northland some rain during the middle/end of next week (October 3-5) so will see how the models handle that over the coming days.  Temperatures are forecast to be near to above average with a potential cool-down later next week, but whether or not that brings temperatures to below normal levels remains to be seen.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Some clouds This Evening.  Mostly clear later on.  Low 31 to 36.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind west around 10 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 61 to 66.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  61
Low:  42

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:01 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   6:57 PM CDT

Tim

Canon T3 12.2MP Digital SLR Camera with 18-55mm f/3.5-5.6 IS II Lens - (Google Affiliate Ad)

Monday, September 24, 2012

A nice stretch of weather ahead; Possible pattern change (wetter) next week.

Issued at 4:06 PM CDT, Monday, September 24th, 2012

Note:  It's been a very dry September at Duluth, Minnesota.  Thru the 23rd, only 0.84" of precipitation has fallen which is 2.37" below average.  September also has a temperature surplus thru the 23rd.  The average monthly temperature is 57.6F which is 0.6 degrees above normal.

Low temperature report for September 24th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service

Brainerd, MN:  33F
Hibbing, MN:  27F
Two Harbors, MN:  32F
Bigfork, MN:  30F
Longville, MN:  28F
Pine River, MN:  28F
Aitkin, MN:  30F
Moose Lake, MN:  30F
Hinckley, MN:  28F
Siren, WI:  32F
Bruno, MN:  31F
3 E of Wright, MN:  26F
Cass Lake, MN:  32F
Northome, MN:  27F
Cook, MN:  31F
Embarrass, MN:  25F
Kabetogama, MN:  28F
3 E of Orr, MN:  26F
2 S of Tower, MN:  30F
Butternut, WI:  32F
Park Falls, WI:  32F
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  32F
Spooner, WI:  31F

*Record Event*
Source:  National Weather Service

Today is day number 107 this year at or above 70F at Duluth, Minnesota.  This is a record for most number of days in a calendar year with a high temperature of at least 70F.  The previous record was 106 days set in 1955.

Note:  On this date in 2000:  A record low temperature of 26 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A real nice early fall day with partly to mostly sunny skies.  High temperatures returned to above normal levels for late September with highs in the 60s and 70s.  It was a windy day, however, with westerly breezes at 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest  per RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +2 to +10C in Northern Minnesota to +12 to +14C in Western, Central, and Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Tuesday Night (September 24th-25th)

A cold front in Northcentral Minnesota late This Afternoon will drop south and exit the Northland by late This Evening, high pressure will then build into the Upper Midwest behind this cold front.  Low temperatures Tonight and Tuesday Night will be in the 30s to lower 40s, but some 20s are possible in the traditional cold spots.  Highs on Tuesday will be cooler than Today with 50s and 60s expected.  Winds will be out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph with stronger gusts Tonight.

Extended Forecast, Wednesday through Friday (September 26th-28th)

High pressure will continue to control our weather for mid to late week with dry weather.  High temperatures through this period will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the 30s and 40s.

Long Range Forecast (September 29th-October October 4th)

This weekend (29th-30th) look dry at this time, and then we may see a bit of a pattern change for next week with possibly a west or southwest flow developing as a trough takes shape to our west.  Could see an increased chance for rain in our area toward the 2nd-4th the way it looks now.  Temperatures are forecast to be near to above average through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Breezy at times.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Not as windy as Today.  Cooler.  Partly cloudy.  High 57 to 62.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind north around 12 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 35 to 40.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  61
Low:  43

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:00 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   6:59 PM CDT

Tim

Oakley Pit Bull Sunglasses with Polarized Iridium Lenses - Polished (Google Affiliate Ad)







Sunday, September 23, 2012

Clear and cool Tonight; Gusty west winds and near 70 in Duluth on Monday; A bit cooler Tuesday-Wednesday.

Issued at 4:48 PM CDT, Sunday, September 23rd, 2012 

High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

September 16-22, 2012

9/16:  79F/14 degrees above normal
9/17:  57F/8 degrees below normal
9/18:  57F/7 degrees below normal
9/19:  67F/14 degrees above normal
9/20:  58F/5 degrees below normal
9/21:  60F/3 degrees below normal
9/22:  51F/11 degrees below normal

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

September 16-22, 2012

9/16:  50F/4 degrees above normal
9/17:  40F/6 degrees below normal
9/18:  33F/12 degrees below normal
9/19:  45F/Normal
9/20:  44F/Normal
9/21:  33F/11 degrees below normal
9/22:  34F/10 degrees below normal

*Temperature departure map for last week.  Duluth was around 6 degrees colder than average last week.



















Precipitation total for September 16-22, 2012:

0.66"
Normal:  1.02"
Departure from normal:  -0.36" 

*Precipitation departure map for last week.  A wetter week in Duluth, but it was still below average, we saw around 50% of our normal amount of precipitation last week.

 


















Low temperature report for September 22nd, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service

Duluth, MN:  33F
International Falls, MN:  21F
Brainerd, MN:  27F
Hibbing, MN:  25F
Hayward, WI:  28F
Sky Harbor, MN:  36F
Two Harbors, MN:  30F
Ely, MN:  27F
Orr, MN:  28F
Crane Lake, MN:  25F
Cook, MN:  27F
Bigfork, MN:  27F
Pine River, MN:  25F
McGregor, MN:  27F
Cloquet, MN:  30F
Aitkin, MN:  28F
Superior, WI:  28F
Siren, WI:  30F
Bruno, MN:  26F
3 E of Wright, MN:  27F
Babbitt, MN:  24F
Embarrass, MN:  23F
Kabetogama, MN:  26F
2 S of Tower, MN:  25F
Upson, WI:  32F
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  32F

*Record Event*
Source:  National Weather Service

A record daily snowfall total was broken on September 21st, 2012 at Duluth, Minnesota.  0.1" of snow fell which broke the previous record of 0.0" set in 2002.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1024mb covered the Upper Midwest and Central Plains Today.  Skies were mainly sunny across the Northland with high temperatures generally in the 50s.  Winds were out of the north or west at 5 to around 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A northwest flow continued in the Upper Midwest with an upper trough in place from Minnesota to the Great Lakes, south to the Ohio Valley, and north to Central-Eastern Ontario per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from 0 to -2C in Northern-Northeast Minnesota to +2 to +4C in Western, Central, and Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin 

Tonight (September 23rd)

High pressure will settle south/east of our area during the night with winds turning to the west-southwest, a low level jet will also strengthen Overnight to 40-60 knots which will result in a shot of warm air advection which will approach from NW.  Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and lower 40s, but some 20s are possible in some locations.  Winds will shift to the west or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night (September 24th)

A cold front will drop south out of Ontario and is forecast to move through the Northland from Monday Afternoon into Monday Evening.  Partly cloudy skies are forecast this period with highs on Monday in the 60s and 70s.  Lows Monday Night will mainly be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  West winds will turn north-northwest at 10 to 20 mph, wind gusts to 30 mph could occur though on Monday.

Extended Forecast, Tuesday through Thursday (September 25th-27th)

High pressure will control our weather during this period with no rain or snow expected.  High temperatures will be in the 50s to lower 60s from Tuesday through Thursday with lows in the 20s and 30s Tuesday Night and mainly 30s Wednesday Night.

Long Range Forecast (September 28th-October 3rd)

Continues to look mainly dry through the upcoming weekend, then we could see some rain showers return to the Northland at times from the 1st-3rd.  Temperatures are forecast to be near to slightly above average through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 34 to 39.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Breezy.  Partly cloudy.  High 68 to 73.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph, becoming northwest during the Afternoon.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 35 to 40.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 58 to 63.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  62
Low:  43

Sunrise Monday:  6:59 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   7:01 PM CDT

Tim

Saturday, September 22, 2012

*ALERT* Freeze Warning in effect Tonight for the Twin Ports. Record or near record cold possible by Morning; Coldest night since late April; Sunshine and 50s for Sunday.

Issued at 6:19 PM CDT, Saturday, September 22nd, 2012

*Areas shaded in light blue are under a freeze warning for Tonight.  (Image from the NWS)
















 Note:  The high temperature reached 51F at 2:52 PM Today at Duluth, Minnesota.  In other words we did get out of the 40s, thus May 4th continues to be the last time we saw a high temperature fail to reach 50F, or 140 days ago and counting.

-Tonight's low temperature is forecast to reach the freezing mark or lower at Duluth, Minnesota.  The last time the mercury dipped to 32F was on April 27th.  The last time the low temperature was lower than 32F was on April 23rd.

*FREEZE WARNING*
Source:  National Weather Service

A freeze warning is in effect from 12 AM Tonight until 8 AM Sunday for the following Counties.

Southern Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Aitkin MN
Pine MN
Carlton MN
Southern St. Louis MN

Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI

Some cities included in the warning are.  In Minnesota...Pine River...Brainerd...Aitkin...Pine City...Hinckley...Moose Lake...Duluth...  In Wisconsin...Superior...Bayfield...Ashland...Hurley...Grantsburg...Spooner...Hayward...and Park Falls.

Discussion:  Low temperatures in the 20s by sunrise Sunday Morning.

Impacts:  The very cold temperatures will bring an end to the growing season.

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely.  These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

Precipitation report for September 21-22, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service

Duluth, MN:  0.20" with 0.1" of snow
International Falls:  0.15"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.11"
Hibbing, MN:  0.31"
Ashland, WI:  0.33"
Hayward, WI:  0.50"
4 S of Bruno, MN:  0.30"
3 E of Wright, MN:  0.28"
Embarrass, MN:  0.41"
Floodwood, MN:  0.26"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.33"
2 S of Tower, MN:  0.29"
Gile, WI:  0.29"
Gurney, WI:  0.37"
Upson, WI:  0.32"
9 N of Bayfield, WI:  0.35"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.69" with 2.0" of snow
Sarona, WI:  0.29"

*Earliest snow in 17 years at Duluth, Minnesota*
Source:  National Weather Service

0.1" of snow fell on September 21st, 2012 at Duluth, Minnesota.  This is the earliest snowfall of the season in 17 years.  0.1" of snow also fell on September 21st, 1995.

*Local Storm Report*
Source:  National Weather Service

-5:22 PM CDT 9/21/12:  0.25" HAIL.  Bigfork, MN (Itasca County)

-5:22 PM CDT 9/21/12:  0.25" RAIN in 20 minutes.  Bigfork, MN (Itasca County)

-5:22 PM CDT 9/21/12:  36 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  Bigfork, MN (Itasca County)

-7:32 PM CDT 9/21/12:  0.25" HAIL.  2 S of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)

-2:00 AM CDT 9/22/12:  0.3" SNOW.  Alborn, MN (St. Louis County)

-6:47 AM CDT 9/22/12:  0.3" SNOW.  5 E of Canyon, MN (St. Louis County)  At Nichols Lake, delayed report.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A very cool 1st day of fall with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies along with spotty showers.  Highs were only in the 40s to lower 50s with north or west winds at 10 to 25 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A strong 500mb trough and a N-NW flow is in place across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Central-Eastern Canada per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 6 PM ranged from 0 to -4C in all but far Southwest Minnesota (+2C)

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (September 22nd)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies during the Evening should become mostly clear later on in the night as high pressure continues to build east out of the Northern Plains.  Widespread frost/freeze conditions are expected Tonight with lows in the 20s to lower 30s with some teens also likely.  Winds will be out of the north or west at 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (September 23rd)

High pressure will control our weather this period with mostly clear skies.  Highs on Sunday will mainly be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with lows Sunday Night in the 30s and lower 40s.  Winds will be out of the northwest or west at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast, Monday through Wednesday (September 24th-26th)

The warmest day during this period looks to be on Monday as west winds increase ahead of a southward moving cold front.  High temperatures are forecast to reach the 60s and 70s in our area.  Cooler air moves back in for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 50s and 60s.  Low temperatures for Monday Night and Tuesday Night will mainly be in the 30s.  This period looks dry at the moment.

Long Range Forecast (September 27th-October 2nd)

Temperatures are expected to be near to possibly a little above average through this period and it still doesn't look like will see any significant/widespread precipitation events until possibly the 1st-2nd of October, and even at that time it's kinda iffy.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*FREEZE WARNING 12 AM Tonight until 8 AM Sunday*

.Tonight...  Cold.  Partly to mostly cloudy with frost/freeze conditions.  Record or near record low temperature possible.  Low 27 to 32.  Record low is 28F set in 1928.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Breezy.  Partly cloudy.  High 67 to 72.  West winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  62
Low:  43

Sunrise Sunday:  6:58 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   7:03 PM CDT

Tim

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Friday, September 21, 2012

*ALERT* Freeze Watch for Duluth and Superior for late Saturday Night-Sunday AM; Keep the backyard light on Tonight, you may see a few snowflakes later on; Chilly weekend ahead; Near 70 on Monday?

Issued at 3:38 PM CDT, Friday, September, 21st, 2012

*Areas shaded in blue are under a Freeze Watch for late Saturday Night through Sunday Morning per National Weather Service.
















*FREEZE WATCH*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A freeze watch is in effect for late Saturday Night through Sunday Morning for the following Counties.

Southern Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Aitkin MN
Pine MN
Carlton MN
Southern St. Louis MN

Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI

Some cities included in the watch are:  In Minnesota...Backus...Brainerd...Aitkin...Pine City...Hinckley...Moose Lake...and Duluth...  In Wisconsin...Superior...Bayfield...Ashland...Hurley...Grantsburg...Minong...Hayward...and Park Falls.

Discussion:  Temperatures in the middle 20s to lower 30s late Saturday Night into Sunday Morning.

Impacts:  The very cold temperatures will bring an end to the growing season.

A freeze watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible.  These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

Rainfall report for September 20th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Hibbing, MN:  0.11"
Hayward, WI:  0.20"
12 N of Isle, MN:  0.11"
Dixon Lake, MN:  0.12"
Cook, MN:  0.13"
Embarrass, MN:  0.14"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.20"
3 E of Orr, MN:  0.16"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.10"
Upson, WI:  0.17"
Sarona, WI:  0.12"

*Local Storm Report*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

-3:52 PM CDT 9/20/12:  0.25" HAIL.  3 SE of Phillips, WI (Price County)  Hail covered the roadway for about 5 minutes.

-12:48 PM CDT 9/21/12:  0.50" HAIL.  International Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  Pea to dime sized hail.

-3:43 PM CDT 9/21/12:  0.25" HAIL.  Fifield, WI (Price County)

-4:24 PM CDT 9/21/12:  0.25" HAIL.  Hermantown, MN (St. Louis County)

*Fall foliage map for September 21st, 2012.  25-50% color change in most of Northeast Minnesota with pockets of 50-75% color change in far Northern Minnesota including International Falls, and west of Duluth in Southwest St. Louis, Western Carlton, and Northern Aitkin County.  (MNDNR)




















Northwest Wisconsin fall foliage update:

Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, Washburn, and Price County has 25-50% color change.  Sawyer County is up to 75% color change.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1006mb was centered in Southern Ontario as of 3 PM with a cold front in Northwestern Minnesota.  A similar setup as to the past few days with some sunshine, clouds, and cold air aloft which led to the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Northland...The strongest activity has been producing some small hail once again Today.  High temperatures were in the 50s to around 60 degrees which is 5-10 degrees below average on this final full day of summer.  Winds were from the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A large H5 trough extended from the Northern Rockies to the Great Lakes, and south through the Central Plains with a strong disturbance dropping S/SE out of Manitoba Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from 0C in extreme Northwest Minnesota to +2C in Northcentral Minnesota to +4 to +8C in Westcentral and Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (September 21st)

Mostly cloudy skies will prevail Tonight with occasional rain showers.  Isolated thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds to 40 mph are also possible before 8 PM.  850mb temperatures will fall to between 0 and -4C during the night which could result in some sleet or snow mixing in with the rain.  It doesn't look like will see any sleet or snow accumulate though.  Lows Tonight will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with a few 20s possible in Western-Northwest parts of our area.  Winds will be out of the north or west at 10 to 25 mph.

*Precipitation forecast for Tonight per HPC.  Up to a tenth of an inch of precip may come down in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight.















Saturday and Saturday Night (September 22nd)

The strong disturbance and cold front moving through the Northland Tonight will exit to our south-east on Saturday with high pressure building into the Upper Midwest by Saturday Night.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies can be expected Tomorrow with a few showers or rain, sleet, or snow possible.  Dry conditions will return Tomorrow Night with skies becoming clear to partly cloudy.  Highs on Saturday will only be in the 40s and 50s with lows Saturday Night in the 20s and 30s with teens possible in the traditional cold spots.  Winds will be out of the north or west at 10 to 20 mph.

Note:  Occasional lake effect showers are possible Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night along the South Shore of Lake Superior, mainly affecting Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties.  Most of this precip should be in liquid form, but some frozen precipitation is possible in the higher terrain areas, away from Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast, Sunday through Tuesday (September 23rd-25th)

A dry weather pattern will prevail through this period.  A cold front is forecast to drop south and through the Northland Monday Evening but no precipitation is expected.  High temperatures will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees on Sunday.  A shot of warmer air arrives on Monday with high temperatures reaching the 60s and 70s.  Highs for Tuesday will drop back to the 50s and 60s.  Low temperatures Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Long Range Forecast (September 26th-October 1st)

No signs of a widespread/significant precipitation event for our area during this period, in fact it looks generally dry with near normal temperatures.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*FREEZE WATCH late Saturday Night through Sunday Morning*

.Tonight...  Occasional rain showers.  Sleet or snow could mix in at times.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Considerable cloudiness.  A few rain or sleet showers possible.  High 47 to 52.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Becoming mostly clear.  Cold with frost developing late, even near Lake Superior.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 35 to 40.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  Breezy.  High 67 to 72.  West winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  63
Low:  44

Sunrise Saturday:  6:56 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   7:05 PM CDT

Tim

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Thursday, September 20, 2012

24 hour snowfall record tied at Duluth, MN on Wednesday; Cool fall-like conditions into Sunday; Possible showers Tonight and Friday; Rain, sleet, snow, maybe even thunder Friday Night.

Issued at 3:01 PM CDT, Thursday, September 20th, 2012

*Critical thickness model forecast for Friday Night per 18z NAM.  Blue line represents the 0C 850mb temperature which at 9 PM Friday extends from Southern Minnesota to Northwest Wisconsin.  Frozen precip can occur if the H85 temp drops below 0C, but other factors do come into play.  The white line represents a thickness of 5400, the 5400 meter line can be used to determine where liquid or frozen precip could occur.  The red line is where the thickness drops to 2840 meters.  The lower the thickness the better, if you want some frozen precip.  Will be interesting to see how Friday Night plays out...















*15z SREF model from Today.  3 hour snowfall forecast valid for Friday Night.  Some half to one inch snowfall totals in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Friday Night.  More info. below.
















*RECORD EVENT*

A 24 hour snowfall record was tied at Duluth, Minnesota on September 19th, 2012.  A trace of snow (hail) fell which tied the previous record set in 1991.

Note:  Precipitation total of 0.30" on September 19th at Duluth, Minnesota is the heaviest daily precipitation total since August 15th and is also the first time since August 15th with at least 0.25" of precipitation.  This is a span of 34 days, almost 5 weeks.

Rainfall report for September 19th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.24"
International Falls, MN:  0.37"
Ashland, WI:  0.21"
Hayward, WI:  0.48"
12 N of Isle, MN:  0.13"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.15"
Dixon Lake, MN:  0.18"
Togo, MN:  0.87"
Cook, MN:  0.14"
Embarrass, MN:  0.17"
3 E of Orr, MN:  0.15"
2 S of Tower, MN:  0.20"
Upson, WI:  0.40"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.22"
Sarona, WI:  0.25"

Local Storm Report for September 19th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

-4:56 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  Glidden, WI (Ashland County)

-4:56 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  Park Falls, WI (Price County)

-5:04 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  Gile, WI (Iron County)

-5:28 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  Mercer, WI (Iron County)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 998mb was over Northern Ontario with a cool northwest breeze at 10 to 25 mph occurring in the Northland on the backside of this low.  We also saw a few showers around the area Today.  Highs were in the 50s to around 60 degrees with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A broad 500mb trough stretches from the Northern Rockies to the Great Lakes, north to Central Canada per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +2C in Northern Minnesota to +6C in Southwest Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (September 20th)

Low pressure to our north and a disturbance dropping SE through the Upper Midwest will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy in our area with a chance for some rain showers as well.  Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with west or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (September 21st)

Once again partly to mostly cloudy skies will dominate with high temperatures on Friday in the 50s with lows Friday Night in the 30s and 40s.  A very strong disturbance will move S-SE out of Manitoba-Western Ontario and through Minnesota during this period.  There could be some rain showers around the Northland Friday Morning, and then a better chance for some rain will exist Friday Afternoon through Friday Night.  850mb temperatures are expected to fall to between 0 and -2C by Friday Night and that along with lowering thickness values may cause a snow/sleet/rain mixture to develop, especially away from Lake Superior...Including areas from the Iron Range and Brainerd Lakes, to Hinckley and Pine City. Any frozen precipitation that develops Friday Night probably won't amount to very much, maybe a dusting to 1/2" of slush in spots.  Winds will be out of the north or west at 10 to 25 mph.

*Friday Evening 500mb forecast per 18z NAM.  A bowling ball cutting through Central Minnesota (very potent/compact vort) Could lead to a few rumbles of thunder around the area.















*Precipitation forecast for 7 PM Friday through 7 PM Saturday per HPC.  Another tenth to quarter inch of needed precipitation is possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

















Extended Forecast, Saturday through Monday (September 22nd-24th)

An upper level disturbance will exit to our SE by early Saturday Morning with a continued N/NW flow covering the Upper Midwest into Sunday.  A few rain, sleet, or snow showers are possible in our area on Saturday with perhaps some lake effect rain showers for the South Shore of Lake Superior, affecting Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties for Saturday and Saturday Night.  Dry weather is forecast for Sunday and Monday.  High temperatures on Saturday will only be in the 40s to lower 50s.  Highs Sunday and Monday will reach the 50s, with a few 60s even possible on Monday.  Low temperatures Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with a few teens looking quite likely in the traditional cold spots.  Lows Sunday Night will mainly be in the 30s.

Long Range Forecast (September 25th-30th)

A pretty quiet weather pattern for the Northland during this period with near to below average temperatures expected with little to no precipitation the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Considerable cloudiness.  A few showers possible.  High 52 to 57.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Occasional rain.  The rain could mix with sleet or snow at times.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Considerable cloudiness.  A few rain, sleet, or snow showers possible.  High 47 to 52.

.Saturday Night...  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 27 to 32.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 35 to 40.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  63
Low:  44

Sunrise Friday:  6:55 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   7:07 PM CDT

Tim

Drought expanding in Minnesota; October forecast; And the new Winter forecast from the Climate Prediction Center included in this post; Weak el nino expected this fall-winter.

Issued at 12:21 PM CDT, Thursday, September 20th, 2012

*All of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin need 3-6" of additional precipitation to get back to average per the latest Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index released on September 15th, 2012.  Anywhere from 9-15" of additional precipitation is needed to get back to average across the Northwest half of Minnesota.















 *Drought Update as of Tuesday, September 18th, 2012*
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

Minnesota:

-Abnormally Dry conditions:  Increased from 83% last week to 96% this week.
-Moderate Drought:  Increased from 44% last week to 64% this week.
-Severe Drought:  Stayed nearly the same as last week at 28%
-Extreme Drought:  Nearly the same as last week at 4%.
















Wisconsin:

-Moderate Drought:  Increased from 54% last week to 58% this week.
-Severe Drought:  Up slightly from 27% last week to 28% this week.
-Extreme Drought:  Nearly the same as last week at 5%.















Midwest:

-Moderate Drought:  Increased from 93% last week to 94% this week.
-Severe Drought:  Decreased from 40% last week to 39% this week.
-Extreme Drought:  Decreased from 13% last week to 12% this week.
-Exceptional Drought:  Decreased from 0.38% last week to 0.27% this week.

*30 day outlook for October 2012*
Source:  CPC

For Duluth, Minnesota:

A 33% chance for above normal temperatures; equal chance for above, normal, or below normal precipitation.





































*90 day outlook for October-December 2012*
Source:  CPC

For Duluth, Minnesota:

A 40% chance for above normal temperatures; equal chance for above, normal, or below normal precipitation.





















*Winter 2012-13 outlook* UPDATED**
Source:  CPC

December-February 2012-2013

For Duluth, Minnesota:

A 33% chance for above normal temperatures; equal chance for above, normal, or below normal precipitation.


















*Key point in the latest discussion out of the Climate Prediction Center:  A strong El Nino is NOT likely this fall/winter in the U.S.  The upcoming El Nino event is expected to be a weak one, meaning other factors may offset it, so although above average temperatures are still being predicted this winter in Minnesota, don't bet the house on that forecast yet.

*U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook released September 20th, 2012.  This is valid through December 31st, 2012.  Quite a change between the last update a few weeks ago compared to this one.  The drought is now forecast to persist or continue to develop in most of Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
















Tim

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Numerous reports of sub-severe hail in the Northland Today; Cool temperatures into the weekend; Scattered showers This Evening and Thursday PM; Latest update on the potential rain/snow mix for late Friday-early Saturday.

Issued at 3:25 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 19th, 2012

*HPC's 1.0" or greater snowfall forecast valid for 7 PM FRIDAY until 7 PM SATURDAY.  Probabilities for an inch or more of snow are very low in Minnesota and Wisconsin, higher chances in Ontario.  More info. below.















Local Storm Report for September 19th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

-1:40 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  Deerwood, MN (Crow Wing County)  Brief heavy rain and gusty winds as well.

-1:50 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)

-1:52 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  2 NW of Hermantown, MN (St. Louis County)  1 mile West of Midway Road on Highway 194.

-1:57 PM CDT:  0.50" HAIL.  5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  1 minute of hail covering the ground.  Official NWS observation.

-2:10 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  3 N of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)

-2:12 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  3-4 minutes of hail in Downtown Duluth.

-2:23 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  Longville, MN (Cass County)  Heavy rain also.

-2:15 PM CDT:  0.50" HAIL.  3 NNW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  Accumulation of marble sized hail with a few larger stones.

-3:00 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  NE Brule, WI (Douglas County)

-3:05 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  3 SSW of Falun, WI (Burnett County)

-3:05 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  NW Iron River, WI (Bayfield County)

-3:30 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  Gordon, WI (Douglas County)

-3:34 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  2 NNE of Moquah, WI (Bayfield County)

-2:20 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  Duluth, MN (SE St. Louis County)  Pea sized hail fell in Canal Park.

-4:00 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  4 S of Ashland, WI (Ashland County)

-4:05 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  Grantsburg, WI (Burnett County)

-4:05 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  14 S of Aitkin, MN (Aitkin County)

-4:08 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)

Weather Tidbits:

*5 of the warmest 7 winters in Minnesota have occurred since 1997-1998.  1st warmest:  2011-2012.  2nd warmest:  1999-2000.  3rd warmest:  2001-2002.  6th warmest:  1997-1998 (strongest El Nino on record)  7th warmest:  2005-2006.  Note:  Records date back to 1895.  Source:  Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times.

*3rd hottest summer in the USA.  The temperature was 2.3 degrees above the 20th century average.  The summers of 2011 and 1936 were the only ones hotter than 2012.  (Source:  Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*The past 4 months have seen record or near record low tornado totals in the U.S.  2012 will likely be in the bottom 10% for number of tornadoes since records began in 1952.  (Source:  Greg Carbin, Storm Prediction Center.  Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*Temperature departure map for summer 2012 (June-August)  The legend is on the bottom.  Reds=warmer than average temperatures.  Blues=cooler than average temperatures.  (NOAA)












*Precipitation departure map for summer 2012 (June-August)  The legend is on the bottom.  Greens=wetter than normal.  Browns=drier than normal.  (NOAA)















*Map below shows the number of days at or above 100F from June 1 through September 15, 2012.  Legend is on the right hand side.  (Source:  Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)



















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 998mb was centered in Southwestern Ontario as of 3 PM with a cold front extending from Western Wisconsin to Southern Minnesota.  The combination of cold 500mb temperatures of around -22C, weak instability with CAPE up to 250 j/kg, and steep lapse rates resulted in scattered showers and thunderstorms in our area Today.  A few of the storms turned strong during the Afternoon hours with numerous reports of hail thanks to the low freezing levels, brief gusty winds have also occurred with Today's activity.  Highs Today were in the 50s and 60s, although a few locations did get up to 70 degrees before the showers came through.  Winds were out of the southwest or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A strong H5 low is moving E-SE across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery.  Height falls up to 90 meters is accompanying this system with a 120 knot upper jet and a mid level jet up to 90 knots across the Dakotas, or on the backside of this storm.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +2 to +4C in Northern Minnesota to +6 to +12C across the rest of the state.

*3 hour water vapor satellite loop ending at 3:30 PM Today.  A very impressive system in Minnesota Today, note the enhancement to the colors in Northeast Minnesota/Northwest Wisconsin, that's where a few thunderstorms popped up This Afternoon.
















Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (September 19th)

Low pressure will stay north of Minnesota while a strong disturbance continues to move E-SE, exiting east of the Northland by late Evening.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist into mid-Evening with gusty winds and hail possible, especially in Northwest Wisconsin.  Shower coverage should decrease by late Evening and through the Overnight hours, although some drizzle or light rain showers could persist even after Midnight, especially for the Iron Range, Arrowhead, and Borderland regions.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the north or west at 10 to 25 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (September 20th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue this period with the potential for some more rain showers, especially during the Afternoon/Nighttime hours.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s to lower 60s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s and 40s.  North or west winds are expected at 10 to 25 mph.

Extended Forecast, Friday through Sunday (September 21st-23rd)

The main concern during this period will come Friday Evening into Saturday Morning as a very strong disturbance moves S-SE out of Manitoba and Western Ontario...Should be some fairly decent lift as this system passes through the region, what this means is that we should see at least a period of steady precipitation before it transitions to more of a scattered shower regime.  What type of precipitation we see is dependent on the temperature as well as the timing as to which the precipitation moves through.

Right now it looks like a rain, ice pellet, and snow mixture for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  850mb temperatures are forecast to drop to between 0 and -4C Friday Night/Saturday, and some of that cold air should get pulled down to the surface, resulting in a mixture of precipitation. 

Note:  These early season snowfall events are always tricky and have to be watched closely as they sometimes produce a narrow band of accumulating snowfall.  If there were to be a sticking snow of perhaps an inch or so, I think it would occur from the Iron Range toward the Brainerd Lakes region in Minnesota based on latest model data.  Stay tuned!

A few showers of rain, sleet, or snow may persist in our area Saturday Afternoon with dry weather returning from Saturday Night through Sunday.

High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s from Friday through Sunday.  Low temperatures Friday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with a few teens possible in the traditional cold spots.

Long Range Forecast (September 24th-29th)

This period continues to look mainly dry for the Northland with near to below average temperatures.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy.  A few showers during the Evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind west to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  Afternoon showers possible.  High 55 to 60.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible at times.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain or a mixture of rain, sleet, and snow possible.  Low 35 to 40.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain, sleet, or snow showers possible at times.  High 48 to 53.

.Saturday Night...  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  64
Low:  45

Sunrise Thursday:  6:54 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   7:09 PM CDT

Tim