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Showing posts from September, 2012

80s were common in parts of Minnesota Today, but 50s prevailed near Lake Superior. A few showers late Sunday Night-Monday AM; Turning colder late next week.

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Issued at 3:50 PM CDT, Saturday, September 29th, 2012

Weather Tidbits:

*80s in portions of Minnesota Today.  Here are some temperatures from 3 PM Today:  Fosston 88F; Morris 84F; St. Cloud 84F; Fergus Falls 84F; Hallock 84F; Roseau 82F; Mankato 82F.

*45 Counties in Minnesota are in severe or extreme drought as of September 25th.  (Paul Douglas St Cloud Times)

*77% of Minnesota is in moderate drought as of September 25th, this is up from just 13% three months ago. (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*More than 35% of Minnesota is in severe or extreme drought this week.  This is the largest total since Fall of 2006.  Only Cook County in Northeast Minnesota wasn't in any kind of drought or abnormally dry conditions this week.  (Paul Douglas St Cloud Times)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

The marine layer increased Today resulting in cool temperatures closer to Lake Superior where highs were in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Farther away from Lake …

30s and 40s for daytime HIGHS in Minnesota late next week? Just how many severe weather reports were there in MN and WI this year, answers in the blog; And Fall colors are peaking pretty close to when they should be in NE Minnesota.

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Issued at 3:04 PM CDT, Friday, September 28th, 2012

*My oh my what do we have here?  Wow that looks awfully cold! 12z EUROPEAN model for next Friday, October 5th, 2012.  Note the darker blues, even some purple colors over the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and Canada for next Friday, this may mean high temperatures only in the 30s and 40s in most of Minnesota late next week.  Stay tuned!















*571 reports of severe weather in Minnesota this year per Storm Prediction Center.

Damaging Wind (Blue dots)  304 reports
Large Hail (Green dots)  234 reports
Tornadoes (Red dots)  35




















*A quieter year for severe weather in Wisconsin with 352 severe weather reports per Storm Prediction Center.

Damaging Wind:  352
Large Hail:  229
Tornadoes:  3

























Weather Tidbits:

*Today is day number 11 so far this month with a maximum temperature of at least 70F.  This matches last September's total.

*The average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota for September (ending on the 27th) 56.4F which is 0.3 degrees warmer…

77% of Minnesota and 61% of Wisconsin in drought this week details below; 70s and sunshine on Friday; Colder later next week?

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Issued at 3:49 PM CDT, Thursday, September 27th, 2012

*Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index as of September 22nd, 2012 shows that anywhere from 9-15" of additional precipitation is needed to get back to average across the Northwest half of Minnesota.  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin needs 3-6" of additional precipitation to get back to average.
















Drought continues to expand across the Northland.

*Drought monitor as of September 25th, 2012*
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

For Minnesota:

Abnormally Dry:  98% this week, up from 96% one week ago.
Moderate Drought:  77% this week, up from 64% last week.
Severe Drought:  35% this week, up from 28% last week.
Extreme Drought:  18% this week, up from 4% last week.

*Drought Monitor map for Minnesota
















For Wisconsin:

Abnormally Dry:  99% this week, down from 100% last week.
Moderate Drought:  61% this week, up from 58% last week.
Severe Drought:  35% this week, up from 28% last week.
Extreme Drought:  8% this week, up from …

Rain late NEXT week? Bone dry until then; A pleasant autumn weather pattern continues thru the weekend.

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Issued at 3:30 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 26th, 2012

*Here's a map showing the coldest low temperature from September 1-25, 2012.  Note the pockets of warmer temperatures, 1 over the Twin Cities, the other along portions of the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota.  (Map from MPR Updraft blog)



















Weather Tidbits:

*2nd driest September on record at Minneapolis/St. Paul.  0.30" of precipitation has fallen so far this month.  The record driest September occurred in 1882 with 0.27" of precipitation.  (Updraft; MPR)

*Still waiting for the 1st official 32 degree low temperature of the season at Duluth, Minnesota.  We've gotten close to the freezing mark 4 times this month (33F) but have failed to drop 1 more degree to 32.  Last year, September 15th was the 1st time with a low temperature of 32F, so were running over a week later this year compared to last.

Low temperature report for September 26th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service

Duluth, MN:  34F
Internat…

Dry through the middle of next week; A pleasant fall weather pattern for the Northland.

Issued at 3:42 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 25th, 2012

*Record Event*
Source:  National Weather Service

A record low temperature occurred at International Falls, Minnesota on Sunday, September 23rd, 2012.  The low temperature was 21 degrees which broke the previous record low of 24 degrees set in 1995.

Low temperature report for September 25th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service

Duluth, MN:  33F
International Falls, MN:  25F
Hibbing, MN:  25F
Hayward, WI:  32F
Two Harbors, MN:  32F
Silver Bay, MN:  25F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport)  27F
Ely, MN:  25F
Orr, MN:  27F
Crane Lake, MN:  25F
Bigfork, MN:  25F
Cook, MN:  27F
Eveleth, MN:  28F
Grand Rapids, MN:  30F
Longville, MN:  28F
Pine River, MN:  30F
Aitkin, MN:  28F
Moose Lake, MN:  32F
Cloquet, MN:  32F
McGregor, MN:  32F
Superior, WI:  28F
Upson, WI:  29F
3 E of Wright, MN:  29F
Cass Lake, MN:  29F
Northome, MN:  28F
Embarrass, MN:  23F
Floodwood, MN:  26F
Kabetogama, MN:  29F
3 E of Orr, MN:  27F
Finland, MN:  32F

Today's Weather Su…

A nice stretch of weather ahead; Possible pattern change (wetter) next week.

Issued at 4:06 PM CDT, Monday, September 24th, 2012

Note:  It's been a very dry September at Duluth, Minnesota.  Thru the 23rd, only 0.84" of precipitation has fallen which is 2.37" below average.  September also has a temperature surplus thru the 23rd.  The average monthly temperature is 57.6F which is 0.6 degrees above normal.

Low temperature report for September 24th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service

Brainerd, MN:  33F
Hibbing, MN:  27F
Two Harbors, MN:  32F
Bigfork, MN:  30F
Longville, MN:  28F
Pine River, MN:  28F
Aitkin, MN:  30F
Moose Lake, MN:  30F
Hinckley, MN:  28F
Siren, WI:  32F
Bruno, MN:  31F
3 E of Wright, MN:  26F
Cass Lake, MN:  32F
Northome, MN:  27F
Cook, MN:  31F
Embarrass, MN:  25F
Kabetogama, MN:  28F
3 E of Orr, MN:  26F
2 S of Tower, MN:  30F
Butternut, WI:  32F
Park Falls, WI:  32F
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  32F
Spooner, WI:  31F

*Record Event*
Source:  National Weather Service

Today is day number 107 this year at or above 70F at Duluth, Minnesota…

Clear and cool Tonight; Gusty west winds and near 70 in Duluth on Monday; A bit cooler Tuesday-Wednesday.

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Issued at 4:48 PM CDT, Sunday, September 23rd, 2012 

High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

September 16-22, 2012

9/16:  79F/14 degrees above normal
9/17:  57F/8 degrees below normal
9/18:  57F/7 degrees below normal
9/19:  67F/14 degrees above normal
9/20:  58F/5 degrees below normal
9/21:  60F/3 degrees below normal
9/22:  51F/11 degrees below normal

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

September 16-22, 2012

9/16:  50F/4 degrees above normal
9/17:  40F/6 degrees below normal
9/18:  33F/12 degrees below normal
9/19:  45F/Normal
9/20:  44F/Normal
9/21:  33F/11 degrees below normal
9/22:  34F/10 degrees below normal

*Temperature departure map for last week.  Duluth was around 6 degrees colder than average last week.



















Precipitation total for September 16-22, 2012:

0.66"
Normal:  1.02"
Departure from normal:  -0.36" 

*Precipitation departure map for last week.  A wetter week in Duluth, but it was still below average, we saw around 50% of our no…

*ALERT* Freeze Warning in effect Tonight for the Twin Ports. Record or near record cold possible by Morning; Coldest night since late April; Sunshine and 50s for Sunday.

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Issued at 6:19 PM CDT, Saturday, September 22nd, 2012

*Areas shaded in light blue are under a freeze warning for Tonight.  (Image from the NWS)
















 Note:  The high temperature reached 51F at 2:52 PM Today at Duluth, Minnesota.  In other words we did get out of the 40s, thus May 4th continues to be the last time we saw a high temperature fail to reach 50F, or 140 days ago and counting.

-Tonight's low temperature is forecast to reach the freezing mark or lower at Duluth, Minnesota.  The last time the mercury dipped to 32F was on April 27th.  The last time the low temperature was lower than 32F was on April 23rd.

*FREEZE WARNING*
Source:  National Weather Service

A freeze warning is in effect from 12 AM Tonight until 8 AM Sunday for the following Counties.

Southern Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Aitkin MN
Pine MN
Carlton MN
Southern St. Louis MN

Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI

Some cities included in the warning are.  In Minnesota...Pine River...…

*ALERT* Freeze Watch for Duluth and Superior for late Saturday Night-Sunday AM; Keep the backyard light on Tonight, you may see a few snowflakes later on; Chilly weekend ahead; Near 70 on Monday?

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Issued at 3:38 PM CDT, Friday, September, 21st, 2012

*Areas shaded in blue are under a Freeze Watch for late Saturday Night through Sunday Morning per National Weather Service.
















*FREEZE WATCH*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A freeze watch is in effect for late Saturday Night through Sunday Morning for the following Counties.

Southern Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Aitkin MN
Pine MN
Carlton MN
Southern St. Louis MN

Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI

Some cities included in the watch are:  In Minnesota...Backus...Brainerd...Aitkin...Pine City...Hinckley...Moose Lake...and Duluth...  In Wisconsin...Superior...Bayfield...Ashland...Hurley...Grantsburg...Minong...Hayward...and Park Falls.

Discussion:  Temperatures in the middle 20s to lower 30s late Saturday Night into Sunday Morning.

Impacts:  The very cold temperatures will bring an end to the growing season.

A freeze watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible.  These condit…

24 hour snowfall record tied at Duluth, MN on Wednesday; Cool fall-like conditions into Sunday; Possible showers Tonight and Friday; Rain, sleet, snow, maybe even thunder Friday Night.

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Issued at 3:01 PM CDT, Thursday, September 20th, 2012

*Critical thickness model forecast for Friday Night per 18z NAM.  Blue line represents the 0C 850mb temperature which at 9 PM Friday extends from Southern Minnesota to Northwest Wisconsin.  Frozen precip can occur if the H85 temp drops below 0C, but other factors do come into play.  The white line represents a thickness of 5400, the 5400 meter line can be used to determine where liquid or frozen precip could occur.  The red line is where the thickness drops to 2840 meters.  The lower the thickness the better, if you want some frozen precip.  Will be interesting to see how Friday Night plays out...















*15z SREF model from Today.  3 hour snowfall forecast valid for Friday Night.  Some half to one inch snowfall totals in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Friday Night.  More info. below.
















*RECORD EVENT*

A 24 hour snowfall record was tied at Duluth, Minnesota on September 19th, 2012.  A trace of snow (hail) fell which tie…

Drought expanding in Minnesota; October forecast; And the new Winter forecast from the Climate Prediction Center included in this post; Weak el nino expected this fall-winter.

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Issued at 12:21 PM CDT, Thursday, September 20th, 2012

*All of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin need 3-6" of additional precipitation to get back to average per the latest Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index released on September 15th, 2012.  Anywhere from 9-15" of additional precipitation is needed to get back to average across the Northwest half of Minnesota.















 *Drought Update as of Tuesday, September 18th, 2012*
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

Minnesota:

-Abnormally Dry conditions:  Increased from 83% last week to 96% this week.
-Moderate Drought:  Increased from 44% last week to 64% this week.
-Severe Drought:  Stayed nearly the same as last week at 28%
-Extreme Drought:  Nearly the same as last week at 4%.
















Wisconsin:

-Moderate Drought:  Increased from 54% last week to 58% this week.
-Severe Drought:  Up slightly from 27% last week to 28% this week.
-Extreme Drought:  Nearly the same as last week at 5%.















Midwest:

-Moderate Drought:  Increased from 93% last we…

Numerous reports of sub-severe hail in the Northland Today; Cool temperatures into the weekend; Scattered showers This Evening and Thursday PM; Latest update on the potential rain/snow mix for late Friday-early Saturday.

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Issued at 3:25 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 19th, 2012

*HPC's 1.0" or greater snowfall forecast valid for 7 PM FRIDAY until 7 PM SATURDAY.  Probabilities for an inch or more of snow are very low in Minnesota and Wisconsin, higher chances in Ontario.  More info. below.















Local Storm Report for September 19th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

-1:40 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  Deerwood, MN (Crow Wing County)  Brief heavy rain and gusty winds as well.

-1:50 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)

-1:52 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  2 NW of Hermantown, MN (St. Louis County)  1 mile West of Midway Road on Highway 194.

-1:57 PM CDT:  0.50" HAIL.  5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  1 minute of hail covering the ground.  Official NWS observation.

-2:10 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  3 N of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)

-2:12 PM CDT:  0.25" HAIL.  Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  3-4 minutes of hail in Downtown Duluth.

-2:23 PM CDT:  0.25"…