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Showing posts from August, 2012

Clear and calm Tonight; Dry and pleasant Saturday; Mild on Sunday, risk of a few storms. Fall Foliage map; And the outlook for September in Today's blog.

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Issued at 2:59 PM CDT, Friday, August 31st, 2012

*Fall color map for Minnesota as of August 30, 2012.  A pocket of 10-25% color change covers a small part of Northern Minnesota, mainly from Bigfork and Northome, toward International Falls, and west to the Lake Of The Woods.  Little to no color change in the rest of Minnesota, 0-10%.  (MNDNR)



















*Peak color times for the state of Minnesota












Weather Tidbits:

*Chilly This Morning in Northern Minnesota:  37F at Togo; 38F at Embarrass; 39F at Bigfork.

*28 days so far this year at or above 90F at Minneapolis/St. Paul.  Average is 13 days.  (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*The summer of 2012 will likely finish as the 3rd hottest summer on record for the state of Minnesota.  Only the summer of 1988 and 1934 were warmer.  (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*9=The number of days this month at or above 80F at Duluth, Minnesota.  Total for 2012 is up to 44 days.

*Don't miss the blue moon Tonight! The next one won't happen until July 31st, 2015.  …

Isolated showers before 6PM; Dry the rest of the night thru Saturday; Possible storms Sunday PM-Monday AM? Pattern change late next week?

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Issued at 2:23 PM CDT, Thursday, August 30th, 2012

*Still need an additional 9-12" of precipitation to get back to average in Northwest and parts of Northern Minnesota (red shaded areas)  All of Northwestern Wisconsin would need 3-6" of precipitation to get back to normal.















*Isaac won't be bothering the Northland this weekend, but it will hit the Ohio Valley, and points west-south with lots of rain, some locations could receive more than 3-5" of rain this Labor Day weekend, this will put a dent in the ongoing drought, but in the short term it may lead to some flash flooding.




















Weather Tidbits:

*The new drought monitor is in and there isn't too much of a change compared to last week in either Minnesota or Wisconsin.  For Minnesota:  37% is in moderate drought (36% last week) 19% is in severe drought (17% last week)  The worst drought conditions continue to be in Northwest and Southern Minnesota and also affecting the Southern half of Wisconsin.

*Lots of heat This A…

A few late night showers west/north of Duluth; 80s-near 90 on Thursday with an isolated shower risk; Fire Weather Watch in Northern MN for Thursday; Farmers Alamanc winter forecast in Today's blog.

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Issued at 7:25 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 29th, 2012

*Rainfall forecast for Thursday per HPC.  Still looks like spotty rain showers in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with rain totals <0 .10=".10" br="br">















*12z 8.29.12 NAM-HIRES model valid for 7 PM Thursday.  This model/run shows some shower activity affecting parts of Minnesota and the Northern half of Wisconsin Thursday PM.

















Precipitation stats for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

August will finish below average in rainfall which is the 2nd month in a row to finish that way.  Meteorological summer 2012 (June-August) is guaranteed to finish above average, however.

Rainfall total for August (ending on the 29th)  1.40"/2.05" below average.

Rainfall total since June 1st:  14.52"/2.99" above average.

Precipitation total since January 1st:  28.23"/7.78" above average.

Weather Tidbits:

-Today is day number 42 in 2012 with a high temperature of at least 80F at Duluth, Min…

Dry through Wednesday Night in Duluth; 80s on Wednesday (cooler near Lake Superior) Near 90 Thursday? Very small/spotty rain chance on Thursday.

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Issued at 4:35 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 28th, 2012

*Per NWS Chanhassen, Minnesota:

-Excessive Heat Watch for Thursday for the Twin Cities Metro.
-Fire Weather Watch for all of Southern Minnesota for Thursday.
















Weather Tidbits:

*Thru August 27th:  The average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota:  65.8F which is 1.1 degrees above average.  August 2012 may be the 14th consecutive month with an above average monthly temperature, amazing!

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1020mb covered the Great Lakes and Southern Ontario with low pressure of 1010mb in Southern South Dakota.  Skies were partly to mostly sunny in the Northland Today with a couple of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting Southwest parts of our area, or around the Brainerd Lakes during the Morning hours.  High temperatures Today were in the 70s and 80s with east or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.

*A 3 hour visible satellite loop of Hurricane Isaac which…

Dry for the next several days in Duluth; Heat wave away from Lake Superior by mid-week; 90 degrees in Duluth on Thursday? Latest maps on Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane Isaac)

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Issued at 3:52 PM CDT, Monday, August 27th, 2012

*Rainfall forecast valid for 7 PM Wednesday until 7 PM Thursday per HPC.  The Silver 1000 is this Thursday at the Proctor Speedway (Duluth, Minnesota) Right now it looks dry for the race, any rain that does develop should be very spotty and mainly west-north of Duluth.















*Tropical Storm Isaac is forecast to dump a lot of rain over the Southeast U.S. this week.  Flooding will likely become a major issue during the next several days.  (map from the HPC)



















*Hurricane Warning in red.  Tropical Storm Warning in blue.  Tropical Storm Watch in yellow.  (NHC)


















*Here's the latest track of Isaac per National Hurricane Center.  Looks to make landfall as a Category 1, possibly a CAT 2 Hurricane in Southern-Southeastern Louisiana Tuesday Evening or Wednesday.



















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Skies were partly to mostly sunny with cooler daytime temperatures compared to previous days, but highs Today were …

A quiet weather pattern for the Northland; Latest NHC maps for Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane) Isaac.

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Issued at 4:18 PM CDT, Sunday, August 26th, 2012

-Latest maps for Tropical Storm Isaac per National Hurricane Center.  Hurricane Warnings have been issued (red areas) from Louisiana, east to Western Florida.  Blue areas represent where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.
















-Expected track and intensity of Isaac per NHC.  Isaac is forecast to become a Hurricane as a potential Category 2 storm as it makes land fall Tuesday Evening into Wednesday.  The center of Isaac is expected to pass over Southeast Louisiana or Southwest Mississippi.  The track could change though.

















Weather Tidbits:
-Low temperature of 67 degrees on August 25th is the warmest minimum temperature since July 16th (67 degrees) and the warmest low temperature so far for the month of August.

-4th Morning in a row with a low temperature of 60 degrees or warmer at Duluth, Minnesota (22nd-25th)  Have to go back to (July 21st-26th) to find a longer streak at 6 days with a low temperature of 60 degrees or warmer.

High temperature…

Clouds linger into Sunday AM; Sunshine and 80s Sunday PM; Sunset before 8 PM Sunday Night; Dry Monday and near 80.

Issued at 8:44 PM CDT, Saturday, August 25th, 2012

High temperature report for August 24, 2012 Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  86F
International Falls, MN:  88F
Brainerd, MN:  91F
Hibbing, MN:  88F
Ashland, WI:  87F
Orr, MN:  90F
Hinckley, MN:  90F
Superior, WI:  88F
Phillips, WI:  88F
Togo, MN:  87F
Cook, MN:  88F
Kabetogama, MN:  89F
Solon Springs, WI:  86F
2 S of Tower, MN:  87F

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Scattered showers did occur in some parts of the Northland Today as a weakening cold front moves into our area along with an upper level disturbance which moved NE out of the Central Plains.  The showers that did occur really weren't that heavy though.  Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy Today with highs in the 70s and 80s.  It was another muggy day with dew points in the 60s with much drier upper 40s and 50s confined to Northwestern Minnesota (behind the cold front) Winds Today were out of …

More severe weather reports in MN on a non-slight risk day, vs. a slight risk day, details below; Stays dry in Duluth Tonight; Scattered storms for Saturday; Dry on Sunday.

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Issued at 8:07 PM CDT, Friday, August 24th, 2012

Interesting!  On August 15th, 2012 much of Minnesota was in a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued later in the day, yet only 10 severe weather reports occurred per Storm Prediction Center.  On August 23, 2012 portions of Minnesota were under a "See Text" which means only a marginal threat for any severe weather, no watches were issued, yet there was a total of 29 severe weather reports in Minnesota.  We had more severe events on a non-slight risk/no watch day, versus a day where we had a watch and were under a slight severe weather risk.  Go figure.

Weather Tidbits:
-Today is the 5th time this month and the 40th time in 2012 with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

-High temperature of 86 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota Today is the warmest maximum temperature since the 1st of the this month (87F)

-So far in August we've had 8 thunderst…

A big thunderstorm hugging Lake Superior's North Shore This Afternoon. Doppler radar shots from this storm, including Dual Pol.

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Issued at 4:20 PM CDT, Thursday August 23rd, 2012

A long lived thunderstorm, severe at times has been rolling NE along the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeastern Minnesota since 2 PM.  This storm has turned severe once again with a threat for hail up to the size of golf balls in Southwest Cook and East Central Lake County until 5 PM CDT per NWS.

Here's a few radar grabs of this severe thunderstorm from GR3.













With the upgrade to Dual Pol radar, one can detect where hail may be falling (red areas on this map)













-Here's another way one can detect where hail may be falling.  This is the VIL radar.  The deeper cores of reds and whites is a pretty good indication there's at least some hail dropping from the sky.













Tim

Still a risk for a few showers/t'storms Tonight; warmer on Friday (80s) mainly dry; rain chance returns Saturday Afternoon-Night; dry for Sunday.

Issued at 3:28 PM CDT, Thursday, August 23rd, 2012

High temperature report for August 22, 2012 Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Brainerd MN:  88F
International Falls, MN:  86F
Ashland, WI:  86F
Sky Harbor, MN:  88F
Orr, MN:  88F
Eveleth, MN:  86F
Bigfork, MN:  86F
Superior, WI:  86F
Cass Lake, MN:  86F
Cook, MN:  87F

Rainfall report for August 23, ending between 6-7am Today Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.09"
Hayward, WI:  0.13"
Bruno, MN:  0.22"
3 S of Ashland, WI:  0.10"
Gordon, WI:  0.14"
Sarona, WI:  0.25"

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Several low pressure centers of 1006-1008mb were over the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Southwestern Canada as of 3 PM while a weak trough moves east out of Western Minnesota.  A persistent warm air advection pattern along with a SW low level jet up to 40 knots has produced scattered showers Today in parts of our ar…

Latest drought maps for MN and WI.; Seasonal drought outlook included as well.

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Issued at 1:22 PM CDT, Thursday, August 23rd, 2012

*Latest Drought Monitor as of August 22nd, 2012*
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

For Minnesota:

*Moderate drought covers 36% of the state this week, up from 34% last week.

*Severe drought covers 17% of the state this week which is unchanged from one week ago.

*Extreme drought covers 0.24% of the state this week, down from 0.25% last week.
















-Drought monitor map for Wisconsin as of August 21st, 2012.  Northern parts of the state is doing fine in the short term, the worst conditions remain in the Southern half of the Badger state.

















For the Midwest:

*Moderate drought has decreased from 66% last week to 51% this week.
*Severe drought remains the same as last week, 51%.
*Extreme drought remains at 35% this week.
*Exceptional drought has dropped slightly from 8% last week to 7% this week.

Additional rainfall amounts of 9-12" are needed to get back to average in Northwest and Northern Minnesota, while Northwestern Wisconsin needs 3-6"…

Today is the 39th day in 2012 at or above 80 degrees in Duluth, Minnesota. A few late night showers possible; scattered storm threat Thursday (small severe potential late in the day)

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Issued at 8:10 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 22nd, 2012

-15z 8.22.12 SREF model:  A widespread area in Minnesota with fairly low severe weather probabilities for Thursday Afternoon/Evening.
















Weather Tidbits:

-Duluth/Superior Harbor water temperature sits at 68.9F Today.

-High temperature of 84F at the Duluth Airport Today is the warmest maximum temperature since an 85 degree high temperature back on August 6th.

-Today is the 4th day this month with a high temperature at or above 80 degrees at the Duluth Airport.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A warm late August day in the Northland with partly cloudy to sunny skies.  Highs were mainly in the 80s which is around 10 degrees above average for the 22nd of August.  Dewpoints weren't too high as they stayed mainly in the 50s to lower 60s.  Winds were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Spotty showers did occur for a time late This Afternoon in Pine County Minnesota, otherwise it was a d…

Quiet weather Tonight and Wednesday; 80s Tomorrow; rain chances on Thursday; small chance on Friday; better chance Saturday Evening/Overnight.

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Issued at 4:56 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 21st, 2012

-Rainfall forecast for 7 PM Wednesday through 7 PM Thursday per HPC.  The bulk of the rain that this map is showing in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin looks to fall late Wednesday Night or else on Thursday.















Note:  On this date in 2004:  A record low temperature of 37 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A picture perfect summer day with sunny to partly cloudy skies, low humidity, gentle winds, and warm temperatures.  Highs were in the mid 70s to low 80s with southwest winds at 5 to 15 mph with a few stronger gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

The flow aloft is more out of the northwest Today vs. the N-NW, result from this is for a push of milder air which is moving east out of the Northern Plains.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +14 to +18C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight thro…

A record cold snap on this date in 2004, 3 Morning's in a row with record low temps in Duluth, Minnesota. Dry into Wednesday; 70s Tuesday; 80s for Wednesday. Late week rain chances.

Issued at 5:12 PM CDT, Monday, August 20th, 2012

Low temperature report for August 20, 2012 Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  43F
Hibbing, MN:  36F
Hayward, WI:  35F
Bigfork, MN:  37F
Crane Lake, MN:  41F
Siren, WI:  39F
Bruno, MN:  39F
Northome, MN:  39F
Togo, MN:  36F
Floodwood, MN:  39F
Kabetogama, MN:  36F
3 E of Orr, MN:  34F
Butternut, WI:  39F
Solon Springs, WI:  39F

Weather Tidbits:
*23 lightning deaths in the U.S. so far in 2012.  Total for 2011:  24.  Source:  Twitter, @tshea_wcm

*On this date in 2004:  A record low temperature of 36 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Precipitation update for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
August 1-19, 2012:  1.30" of rain.  Normal:  2.34".  1.04" below average.

June 1-August 19, 2012:  14.42" of rain.  Normal:  10.42".  4.00" above average.

January 1-August 19, 2012 precipitation total:  28.13".  Normal:  19.34".  8.79" above average.

Today's Weather Summary…