Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Spirit Valley Days forecast in Today's blog. Latest info. on the storm potential for late Tonight-Wednesday, and for later this week.

Issued at 4:13 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 31st, 2012

*Spirit Valley Days weather forecast for West Duluth*

Wednesday, August 1st: 

Temperatures in the 80s during the Afternoon and early Evening hours, falling to around 70 degrees by mid to late Evening.  40% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday, August 2nd:

-Parade weather (6-7 PM)  Temperatures around 80 degrees and dry.
-Fireworks weather (10:20 PM)  Temperatures falling into the 60s and dry.

Friday, August 3rd:

-Street Dance weather (7 PM-1 AM)  Temperatures around 70 degrees.  40% chance of rain.

*15z 7.31.12 SREF model calibrated severe weather forecast for 7 PM Wednesday.  Still seeing higher values for potential severe weather from Southcentral-Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin.
















*Record Event*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

25 days this month with a high temperature of at least 80F at Duluth, Minnesota.  This is the most on record for any month.  The previous record was 24 days set in July 1988.

Weather Tidbits:

*1 tornado so far this year in Wisconsin.  An EF-0 on May 24th.  Average to date is 26 tornadoes.  (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*33 tornado reports so far this year in Minnesota.  (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*2 more storm reports from Sunday Night.  7:30 PM CDT 7/29:  1.00" HAIL.  6 S of Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  12:05 AM CDT 7/30:  0.75" HAIL.  Big Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

*35 days so far this year at or above 90F at Chicago O'Hare.  36 days at or above 90F at Midway Airport.  Average for an entire summer is 17.  (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*28 days so far this year at or above 90F at Madison, Wisconsin.  (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*On this date in 2006:  A record high temperature of 95 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Another nice day as we close out the month of July.  Skies were partly to mostly cloudy Today with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.  Dew points were in the 50s and 60s and winds were out of the north, east, or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest flow continues across the Upper Midwest with troughs over the Northwest U.S. and Northeast U.S. and an upper ridge covering the Central/Southern Rockies, east through the Central/Southern Plains.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +20 to +22C in Southwest and far Western Minnesota to +16 to +18C across the remainder of Minnesota.

-500mb map for 7 AM Today



















Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (July 31st)

We will see a warm/moist advection pattern spread into our area Tonight along with a southwest low level jet of 30-40 knots as low pressure and it's warm front and cold front track east across the Northern Plains.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms could develop at times, especially in Northcentral Minnesota.  There doesn't appear to be a real big severe weather threat for Tonight, but some downpours and lightning could accompany a few of the storms.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with south or east winds at 10 to 15 mph.

-18z 7.31.12 NAM-HIRES model is hinting at a potential thunderstorm complex in the Northern half of Minnesota late Tonight into Wednesday Morning.















-Tonight's low temperature forecast




Wednesday and Wednesday Night (August 1st)

An area of low pressure with it's warm front and cold front will be moving through the Northland during this period.  Scattered Morning showers or thunderstorms are possible in our area, then will probably get a break before we could see a few more showers and thunderstorms later in the Afternoon and into the Evening hours.  There looks to be 2 main spots where storms may fire late Tomorrow PM.  One will be along the Minnesota-Ontario border, into the Arrowhead.  The other in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Warmer air aloft may keep many thunderstorms from developing Tomorrow Afternoon, but any storm that does develop and can sustain itself could become severe with strong mid-upper level winds in place along with decent amounts of instability, moisture, and wind shear.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with highs Tomorrow in the 80s and lower 90s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south, east, or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

-Wednesday's high temperature forecast













-A 5% chance for severe thunderstorms continues in all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Wednesday.  (Storm Prediction Center)
















Extended Forecast, Thursday through Saturday (August 2nd-4th)

Thursday:  A cold front will settle south and out of our area with high pressure to our north.  Looks mainly dry in our area with highs in the 70s and 80s.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

Friday:  Low pressure approaches from the west with another warm front and cold front heading into the Upper Midwest.  The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as this system approaches.  Still too early to tell if will have a severe threat, but it's certainly possible since this system looks pretty strong and should have fast winds aloft and decent shear to work with.  Stay tuned!  Highs on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s.

Saturday:  Low pressure will pass north of our area with a cold front exiting to our south/east.  Showers are possible on Saturday with a few thunderstorms also possible, especially in Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s.

-5 day rainfall forecast from the HPC.  Valid through Sunday, August 5th, 2012.  Seeing some decent rainfall totals across Minnesota, some of this will fall Tonight-Wednesday, the other event looks to be Friday-Saturday.















Long Range Forecast (August 5th-10th)

Dry weather is forecast for Sunday (5th) Could see quite a warm/heat wave spread into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest for the early/mid part of next week (6th-8th) The potential also exists for a few showers or thunderstorms from the 6th-10th.  Temperatures will be at or above average through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers possible at times.  Low 61 to 66.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  More humid.  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 82 to 87.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms possible early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 77 to 82.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.

.Friday...  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 73 to 78.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Saturday...  Showers possible.  Partly sunny.  High 75 to 80.  Chance of rain 30%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:49 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:40 PM CDT

Wednesday's Allergy Forecast:  5.5/Medium
Wednesday's UV Index:  8.0/Medium-High


Tim








Monday, July 30, 2012

Nice Tonight, and July will end on a mild/dry note on Tuesday. Possible storms for Wednesday.

Issued at 3:51 PM CDT, Monday, July 30th, 2012

Tonight:  Clear-partly cloudy.  Spotty shower early? Patchy fog late.

Tuesday:  Mild temps, comfortable humidity.

Wednesday:  Warm, somewhat humid.  Possible showers and thunderstorms.

Rainfall report for Sunday Evening-early Monday Morning, July 29-30, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  0.77"
Grand Marais, MN:  1.30"
Hibbing, MN:  0.86"
Cook, MN:  0.34"
Embarrass, MN:  0.26"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.56"
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  0.50"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.53"
3 E of Orr, MN:  0.33"
Finland, MN:  0.22"
Gurney, WI:  2.10"
Madeline Island, WI:  0.21"
Upson, WI:  0.78"
9 N of Bayfield, WI:  0.22"

Weather Tidbits:

*As of July 29:  23 days this month at or above 80F at Duluth, Minnesota.  Yearly total is up to 33 days.  We've also had 3 days at or above 90F so far this year at the Duluth Airport.

*This month will likely be the 1st month since last January that finishes with below average precipitation at Duluth, Minnesota.  January '12:  -0.59".  February '12:  +0.60".  March '12:  +0.13".  April '12:  +1.27".  May '12:  +3.38".  June '12:  +5.80"

*One storm report from Sunday Evening.  7:08 PM CDT:  0.88" HAIL 5 NW of Ely, MN (St. Louis County) At Burntside Lake Lodge.  (NWS)

*On this date in 1995:  A record high temperature of 94 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.  And on this date in 1992, a record low temperature of 42 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

-15z 7.30.12 SREF model calibrated severe weather probability for 7 PM Wednesday.  Looks like the higher numbers for possible severe weather are setting up in Western Wisconsin, and Southern-Eastern Minnesota for Wednesday.  Stay tuned!

















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1008mb was centered over Northern Lake Superior with a cold front extending southwest from the low into Central Wisconsin.  High pressure of 1016mb was in Southeast Saskatchewan.  Skies were partly to mostly sunny Today with west or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.  A few light showers or sprinkles have been passing through Northeast Minnesota, otherwise it's been dry Today.  Dew points are lower compared to Sunday with 50s and 60s over our area Today.


Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per RAP model analysis.  Sunday's disturbance has reached the Northern-Central Great Lakes This Afternoon and continues to move off toward the east per water vapor satellite imagery.  An upper level ridge covered the Central-Southern Rockies and Plains while an upper trough enters the Pacific Northwest.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +20 to +24C across Southern Minnesota to +14 to +18C over the remainder of the state.

-500mb map for 7 AM Today



















Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (July 30th)

High pressure will bring clear to partly cloudy skies to our area with patchy late night fog.  The possibility for a shower or two will quickly fade away as sunset approaches.  Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s with some 40s possible in far Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north or west at up to 15 mph.

-Tonight's low temperature forecast














Tuesday and Tuesday Night (July 31st)

High pressure will remain in control of our weather on Tuesday with sunny to partly cloudy skies, highs will be in the 70s and 80s with tolerable dew points.  Southerly flow will kick in once again by Tuesday Night as high pressure exits to our east.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow Night, and there could be a few showers later in the night, especially in the Western-Northern areas.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with south, west, or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

-Tuesday's high temperature forecast














Extended Forecast, Wednesday through Friday (August 1st-3rd)

Low pressure and a cold front will be tracking across the Northland on Wednesday.  We should see a decent build up of instability along and ahead of this boundary with CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -3 to -7C.  The temperatures aloft look quite warm, however, with 850mb temps approaching +22C and 700mb temps nearing +12C, in other words the cap looks to overspread our area on Wednesday, and this will likely hinder thunderstorm development.  The way it looks now is that will see spotty showers and thunderstorms in our area from late Wednesday Afternoon into the Evening hours.  Storms that are able to develop could turn severe with decent wind shear in place along with favorable mid/upper level winds.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 80s and 90s, dew points should pool into the 60s.  Lows Wednesday Night will be mainly in the 60s.

-Severe weather outlook for Wednesday.  5% chances cover all of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  (SPC)














Mainly dry conditions should return on Thursday with highs in the 70s and 80s.  The next weather system could move toward the Upper Midwest on Friday with possible showers or thunderstorms.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with highs on Friday in the 70s and 80s.

Note:  That late week system will need to be watched for a possible larger severe weather outbreak, although there are timing and strength differences between the computer models at this time, so it'll likely take another day or 2 for those differences to get ironed out.

-5 day rainfall forecast from the HPC.  This is valid through Saturday Morning, August 4th.  >0.50" totals for almost all of Minnesota for the next 5 days.















Long Range Forecast (August 4th-9th)

Showers and thunderstorms could linger into Saturday (4th) but as I stated above the computer models are differing as to how fast this system moves through.  Dry weather is expected for Sunday-Monday (5th-6th) Showers or storms might return to the region between the 7th-9th.  Temperatures are expected to stay at or above average during this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 78 to 83.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind south around 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 83 to 88.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms possible, especially during the Evening.  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 77 to 82.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 73 to 78.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:48 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:41 PM CDT

Tuesday's Allergy Forecast:  6.3/Medium
Tuesday's UV Index:  7.0/Medium

Tim


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Sunday, July 29, 2012

*Severe T-storm Watch until 3 AM Monday*

Issued at 7:51 PM CDT, Sunday, July 29th, 2012

















*SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #539*
Source:  Storm Prediction Center

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for Northern Minnesota until 3 AM CDT Monday.

Hazards:


Hail to 2" in diameter
Thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph
Dangerous Lightning 

Counties in the Duluth area included in the watch are:

Koochiching, MN
Itasca, MN
St. Louis, MN
Lake, MN

Some cities included in the watch are:

International Falls, MN...Grand Rapids, MN...Duluth, MN...Hibbing, MN...Ely, MN...Two Harbors, MN...Silver Bay, MN...Finland, MN...and Isabella, MN.

**Remember a severe thunderstorm watch means that conditions are favorable for severe weather in and close to the watch area, persons in these areas should listen for later updates and for possible warnings.  Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes**

Tim


Could see some storms Tonight and Monday. Possible wind shift to the east in Duluth Tonight.

Issued at 6:54 PM CDT, Sunday, July 29th, 2012

Tonight:  Some clouds, muggy, showers/t-storms for some.  (A few could be strong to severe)

Monday:  Humid.  A few showers and t-storms.

Tuesday:  Warm temps, but mostly dry.

High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

July 22-28, 2012

7/22:  90F/13 degrees above average.
7/23:  85F/8 degrees above average.
7/24:  81F/4 degrees above average.
7/25:  81F/4 degrees above average.
7/26:  79F/2 degrees above average.
7/27:  73F/4 degrees below average.
7/28:  80F/3 degrees above average.

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

July 22-28, 2012

7/22:  60F/4 degrees above average.
7/23:  61F/5 degrees above average.
7/24:  60F/4 degrees above average.
7/25:  65F/9 degrees above average.
7/26:  61F/5 degrees above average.
7/27:  57F/1 degree above average.
7/28:  58F/2 degrees above average.

-Temperatures last week were about 3 degrees warmer than average in Duluth.



















*Rainfall total for July 22-28, 2012:  

2.24".  Average:  0.76".  We were 1.48" above average.

-Finally had a week with above average rainfall in the Twin Ports.  We saw about 200% of our average rainfall last week.




















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

It's been a bit stormy This Afternoon in the Arrowhead of Minnesota where scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred, a few of these storms have been severe late This Afternoon in Northern St. Louis County.  Mainly dry weather for the rest of us Today with partly to mostly sunny skies.  Highs were generally in the 80s with dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees.  Winds were out of the south, southwest, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Still seeing a northwest flow across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  One disturbance was dropping E-SE out of Manitoba Canada while a nice looking upper low moves into the Pacific Northwest.  Meanwhile to our south, a ridge of high pressure stretched from the Central and Southern Rockies through the Southern U.S.  850mb temperatures as of 6 PM ranged from +20C in Northwest and far Southwest Minnesota to +16 to +18C in the rest of Minnesota.

-500mb map for 7 AM Today



















Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (July 29th)

Low pressure will remain to our northwest while a cold front and upper level disturbance head southeast into our area.  Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms around the Northland Tonight.  A few of the storms could be strong or severe with hail and gusty winds.  Instability should remain favorable during the night to support convection with CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg and Lifted Indices from -3 to -7C.  Decent amounts of wind shear should also be available with around 30-40 knots of 0-6 km  and Effective Bulk Shear.  Heavy downpours of rain are also possible with dew points in the 60s and PWATS of 1.20-1.70".  Lows Tonight will be mainly in the 60s with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Winds will be out of the south, west, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

-Rainfall forecast valid until 7 PM Monday per HPC















-Tonight's low temperature forecast















Monday and Monday Night (July 30th)

Low pressure, cold front, and upper level disturbance will be exiting our area to the south-east on Monday.  Lingering instability behind this system could go on to produce a few more showers and thunderstorms Tomorrow and Tomorrow Evening, mainly from the Arrowhead and North Shore, into Northwestern Wisconsin.  Highs on Monday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Monday Night in the 50s and 60s.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with winds out of the west or north at up to 20 mph.

-Monday's high temperature forecast













-A minimal 5% chance for severe thunderstorms for Monday in Northeast Minnesota and all of Northwest Wisconsin.  (SPC)

















Extended Forecast, Tuesday through Thursday (July 31st-August 2nd)

Looks mainly dry on Tuesday with highs in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s.  The next chance for showers or thunderstorms will be Wednesday and Thursday, and a few of these storms may become severe in parts of our area, especially on Wednesday the way it looks now.  High temperatures will remain in the 70s and 80s for Wednesday and Thursday with lows Wednesday Night in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast (August 3rd-8th)

A more potent cold front could be swinging through the region between Friday-Saturday, August 3-4.  Looking like will see some showers and thunderstorms accompany this frontal passage, maybe some severe weather as well depending on the timing.  Dry weather should return for August 5-6, then we could see a few storms move back into the region toward the 7th-8th.  Temperatures are forecast to be near to above average through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Humid.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly Overnight.  Low 63 to 68.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph, becoming east to southeast.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday...  Humid.  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 80 to 85.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Wednesday...  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 78 to 83.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday Night...  Showers or thunderstorms possible, especially during the Evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 77 to 82.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Monday:  5:47 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:43 PM CDT

Monday's UV Index:  7.0/Medium


Tim

40% chance of a severe t-storm watch in N.MN. MD issued by the SPC.

Issued at 2:41 PM CDT, Sunday, July 29th, 2012

*A mesoscale discussion has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for Northern Minnesota.  This is valid until 4:45 PM Today.  Chances the SPC issue a thunderstorm watch is 40%*

-Image from the Storm Prediction Center.

















There will be a scattering of showers and thunderstorms across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin through late Tonight.  The atmosphere was becoming unstable This Afternoon and sufficient amounts of instability should linger at least through the Evening hours to support a few severe thunderstorms.

CAPE is forecast to range from 1000-2000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -3 to -6C.  Effective Bulk Shear and 0-6 KM shear is forecast to be around 30-35 knots.  Mid level winds should remain <40 knots with a low level jet increasing to 30-40 knots This Evening.

An area of showers and thunderstorms was moving toward the Arrowhead of Minnesota as of mid-Afternoon, and additional development is expected to occur farther west in Northern Minnesota, Northeast North Dakota, and adjacent areas of Manitoba and Ontario Canada.

-Radar loop ending at 2:30 PM Today.














The main hazards from storms that become severe are from hail and gusty winds.

-SPC's large hail potential through Tonight.  Greatest chances north of Duluth per 11:30 AM update.














-Damaging wind potential through Tonight.















-Tornado potential through Tonight.















Stay tuned to later weather updates and make sure you have a way to be notified should a watch or warning be issued.

Tim




Saturday, July 28, 2012

Possible showers late Tonight/Sunday AM. 80s should return Sunday Afternoon. A few storms Sunday Night?

Issued at 8:06 PM CDT, Saturday, July 28th, 2012

Tonight:  Mild.  Some clouds.  A few showers or t-storms possible

Sunday:  Warm, moderately humid.  A few showers or t-storms possible.

Monday:  Warm, small shower or t-storm chances.

-18z 7.28.12 NAM-HIRES computer model for 7 PM Sunday.  This model is hinting at some storms late Sunday Afternoon and Evening across the Northern half of Minnesota.















Low temperature report for July 28th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  47F
Hibbing, MN:  47F
Ashland, WI:  47F
Hayward, WI:  46F
Silver Bay, MN:  45F
Eveleth, MN:  46F
Crane Lake, MN:  48F
Phillips, WI:  46F
Embarrass, MN:  48F
Butternut, WI:  45F
Gurney, WI:  46F
Upson, WI:  44F
Winter, WI:  46F

Weather History:

On this date in 2006, a record high temperature of 97 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A beautiful summer day througout the Northland with sunny partly cloudy skies along with near to above average temperatures.  Highs were generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the 50s to lower 60s.  Winds were out of the south, west, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest with a couple of disturbances embedded in the flow dropping E-SE through Southwest Canada and the Northern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 7 PM ranged from +14 to +18C in Minnesota.

-500mb map for 7 AM Today




















Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin


Tonight through Sunday Night (July 28th-29th)

Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies during this period with low temperatures Tonight and Tomorrow Night in the 50s and 60s with highs Tomorrow in the 70s and 80s.  There will be a chance for some showers and thunderstorms as well through Tomorrow Night as a NW flow aloft continues while a few disturbances drop SE out of the Northern Plains with a cold front moving into the area by Sunday Night.

Should be sufficient instability to pop a few storms Sunday Afternoon-Evening with CAPE 1000-2000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -3 to -6C.  Wind shear looks to be around 30-35 knots with mid level winds generally <40 knots.  The potential for severe weather is fairly low, but certainly can't be ruled out late Sunday Afternoon and or Evening, generally in Northern Minnesota the way it looks now.

-Storm Prediction Center continues to have a 5% chance of severe thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Sunday and Sunday Night.














-HPC's rainfall forecast valid from 7 PM Sunday until 7 PM Monday.

















-15z 7.28.12 SREF calibrated severe weather potential for late Sunday Afternoon-Evening.  This model shows the higher values for severe storms west-northwest of Duluth.

















-Tonight's low temperature forecast
















-Sunday's high temperature forecast

















Extended Forecast, Monday through Wednesday (July 30th-August 1st)

Could see a few showers or thunderstorms linger in the Northland on Monday.  Tuesday looks dry at this time.  Showers or thunderstorms could then return for next Wednesday.  High temperatures will remain in the 70s and 80s during this period with lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night in the 50s and 60s.

-5 day rainfall forecast, valid through Thursday, August 2nd, 2012.  (HPC)















Long Range Forecast (August 2nd-7th)

Thursday the 2nd may turn out to be a rain-free day around our area, but then the chance for showers or thunderstorms look to return between August 3-5, timing if somewhat questionable with the next frontal passage next Friday-weekend, so stay tuned for possible changes.  Temperatures are forecast to remain at or above average during this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible after Midnight.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind south to southeast around 10 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday...  Partly to mostly cloudy, moderately humid.  Showers possible during the Morning.  High 80 to 85.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 80 to 85.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Wednesday...  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 78 to 83.  Chance of rain 30%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Sunday:  5:46 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   8:44 PM CDT

Sunday's UV Index:  9.0/Medium-High

Sunday's Allergy Forecast:  5.0/Medium


Tim


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Friday, July 27, 2012

An Overnight dew alert! Patchy fog, cool in the bogs! 70s-80s this weekend w/a few showers or t-storms possible.

Issued at 4:13 PM CDT, Friday, July 27th, 2012

Tonight:  Clear to partly cloudy skies.  Pleasantly cool temperatures.

Saturday:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Afternoon and or Nighttime showers/t-storms possible.

Sunday:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Possible showers/t-storms.  Mild temperatures.

-A minimal (5% chance) for severe thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Sunday, July 29th, 2012.  (SPC)














Weather Tidbits:

*1,513 record high and record high-low temperatures in the U.S. last week.  (HAMweather)

*With the recent rainfall in Duluth, we've made up some ground in our monthly precipitation deficit.  Thru July 26th, we've had 3.06" of rain which is 0.23" below normal.  We continue to have a precipitation surplus since June 1st (+5.57") and since January 1st (+10.36")

Rainfall report for July 26th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.66"
Brainerd, MN:  0.38"
Ashland, WI:  0.39"
Hayward, WI:  0.27"
Bruno, MN:  0.35"
3 NE of Nisswa, MN:  0.23"
Togo, MN:  0.13"
Cook, MN:  1.28"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.51"
Embarrass, MN:  0.92"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.76"
3 E of Orr, MN:  0.22"
2 S of Tower, MN:  1.98"
Butternut, WI:  0.92"
Upson, WI:  0.80"
Sarona, WI:  0.37"

-Rainfall map for Thursday















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1016-1018mb covered the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest as Thursday's low pressure system exits to our east.  Skies were partly to mostly sunny Today with high temperatures in the 70s.  Winds were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis shows a NW flow covering the Upper Midwest with an upper level ridge stretching from the Central-Southern Rockies through the Southern U.S.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +12 to +14C in Minnesota.

-500mb map for 7 AM Today



















Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (July 27th)

High pressure will cover our area with clear to partly cloudy skies.  Could see some patchy fog late in the night.  Lows will be in the 50s with 40s in the traditional cool spots.  North, east, or west winds will continue at around 10 mph.

Tonight's low temperature forecast














Saturday and Saturday Night (July 28th)

High pressure will move off to our east during this period with a SW flow developing.  Dew points will come up a bit with 50s and 60s becoming more common, and this combined with some instability may lead to a few showers or thunderstorms, especially Saturday Afternoon and Night.  Storms that do develop should stay under severe levels.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Saturday Night in the 50s and 60s.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected and winds will be out of the south or west at 10 to 20 mph.

-Saturday's high temperature forecast














Extended Forecast, Sunday-Tuesday (July 29th-July 31st)

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible on Sunday and perhaps into Monday as well with mainly dry weather expected for Tuesday.  There's a small chance that a severe thunderstorm could develop Sunday Afternoon-Evening with favorable amounts of shear and instability present.  High temperatures will remain in the 70s and 80s during this period with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night mainly in the 60s.

Long Range Forecast (August 1st-6th)

A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible at times from 1st-5th, it won't rain everyday, however, but the overall weather pattern looks to be a little unsettled with a west or west-northwest flow in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest while a heat wave continues farther to our southwest.  Low pressure disturbances going up and around that heat dome may spark an occasional storm every once in a while.  Temperatures are forecast to remain at or above average through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55, a little warmer closer to Lake Superior.  Wind east around 10 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 77 to 82.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 80 to 85.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Saturday:  5:44 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:45 PM CDT

Saturday's UV Index:  8.0/Medium-High

Saturday's Allergy Forecast:  5.5/Medium


Tim


Canon T3i 18.0MP Digital SLR Camera with 18-55mm IS Lens - Digital




Thursday, July 26, 2012

Scattered showers This Evening, patchy fog late. 70s on Friday. 80 degrees Saturday and Sunday.

Issued at 4:35 PM CDT, Thursday, July 26th, 2012

Tonight:  Scattered showers, a few thunderstorms.  Showers diminish late.  Patchy fog?

Friday:  Isolated Afternoon showers? Sun/cloud mix.  Pleasant summer temperatures.

Saturday:  SW winds, mild-warm temps, comfy humidity.  Dry.

-Climate Prediction Center showing enhanced odds for above normal rainfall (40% chance) in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during the 6-10 day period, August 1-5.



















Weather History:

On this date in 1991:  A record low temperature of 41 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.


Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure averaging 1008mb was centered in Northeast Minnesota late This Afternoon with a cold front sinking south out of Northern Minnesota.  The low and cold front, combined with a potent upper low (chilly air aloft) led to the development of widespread, but scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the area Today.  None of the storms have been severe Today, but they have produced some heavy downpours of rain with quarter to half inch amounts, and even some 1-2" one hour rainfall totals per doppler radar, but due to the hit or miss nature of this activity not everyone has seen rain Today.  Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs in the 60s and 70s with some 80s in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds were out of the southwest, north, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

-Quite a bit of lightning at 4 PM Today in Northcentral Minnesota














Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis show an upper low and trough with 30 meter 12 hour height falls digging S/E through the Upper Midwest while an upper level ridge covered the Central-Southern Rockies through the Southern U.S.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from  +12C in Northern Minnesota to +14 to +18C in Southern Minnesota.

-500mb map for 7 AM Today



















Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (July 26th)

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue during the Evening with the potential for some brief heavy rainfall, small hail, and wind gusts up to 40 mph.  This activity should decrease by late Tonight with the loss of daytime heating.  The upper low/trough and cold front responsible for Today's showers will exit to our south/east Overnight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast and there could be some areas of fog after Midnight.  Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s with a few 40s possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north, east, or west at 5 to 15 mph.

-Tonight's low temperature forecast














Friday and Friday Night (July 27th)

Looks generally dry this period, but isolated pop-up showers may develop during the Afternoon and early Evening hours in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, shower coverage should be much less compared to Today.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected on Friday with highs mainly in the 70s.  Skies will become partly cloudy Friday Night with lows in the 50s with 40s possible up North.  Winds will be out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

-Friday's high temperature forecast














Extended Forecast, Saturday-Monday (July 28th-30th)

High temperatures in the 70s and 80s are forecast during this period with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the 50s and 60s.  Dry weather should continue on Saturday with a few showers or thunderstorms possible for Sunday and Monday.

Long Range Forecast (July 31st-August 5th)

Near to above average temperatures will continue through this period and there could be a few showers or thunderstorms from time to time, especially around August 1st and again around the 3rd.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Scattered rain showers.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible early.  Patchy fog late.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 73 to 78.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind west around 10 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 78 to 83.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Friday:  5:43 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:46 PM CDT

Friday's UV Index:  8.0/Medium-High

Friday's Allergy Forecast:  4.9/Moderate


Tim

The Young Scientist Club YS-WH9251109 Kit Magnetism Static Electricity Tornadoes Clouds Water Cycle Tysc


1300+ Counties in 31 states declared drought disaster areas per USDA. Latest drought update for MN and WI.

Issued at 3:02 PM CDT, Thursday, July 26th, 2012

*Latest Drought Update*
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

As of July 24th, 2012:

*62% of Minnesota is Abnormally Dry which is the same as last week.
*37% of Minnesota is in Moderate Drought which is up from 33% last week.
*13% of Minnesota is in Severe Drought which is up from 7% last week.

-The latest drought monitor map for Minnesota.  Northwest, Southwest, and far Southern Minnesota are in severe drought.















For Wisconsin:

The Southern half of the state continues to be under Severe or Extreme Drought conditions this week.  35% of the state is in Severe Drought which is up from 26% last week.  19% of the Badger state is in Extreme Drought which is up from 18% last week.

-Drought monitor map for Wisconsin.  The Southern half of the state continues to be in Severe or Extreme Drought this week.















For the Midwest:

73% is in Moderate Drought, 55% is in Severe Drought, 28% is in Extreme Drought, 4% is in Exceptional Drought.  All these numbers are an increase from one week ago.

Drought Tidbits:

*The USDA has declared 76 additional Counties in 6 states as Drought-Disaster areas.  This brings the total for the 2012 crop year to 1,369 Counties in 31 states.

*Washington, Michigan's Upper Peninsula, New Jersey, Vermont, Rhode Island, and Maine are the only areas that are not in some sort of drought this week.

-Drought Severity Index ending on July 21st, 2012.  Looking at Severe-Extreme Drought in the Northwest 1/2 of Minnesota, as well as Western-Southern areas of the state.















-An additional 9-12" of precipitation is needed to get back to average in the Northwest half of Minnesota.  6-9" in parts of Western and Southern Minnesota.

















Tim




"Hot Water Rubber Garden Hose"

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Only 12 tornadoes in the U.S. this month, fewest since 1950-51. 5 twisters in Saskatchewan on Tuesday. Radar/rainfall reports from last night's storms. A cool satellite loop showing last night's MCS in MN and WI.

Issued at 3:47 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 25th, 2012

Tonight:  A few showers/t-storms west-northwest and southeast areas.

Thursday:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday:  Small shower chance, a mix of sun/clouds

-Here's a doppler plot of the rainfall that occurred earlier Today.  The legend is on the left.















A widespread soaking rain early This Morning across much of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Rainfall totals for July 25th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  1.56"
International Falls, MN:  0.63"
Brainerd, MN:  1.60"
Grand Marais, MN:  1.18"
Hibbing, MN:  0.98"
Ashland, WI:  0.68"
Hayward, WI:  0.76"
4 S of Bruno, MN:  1.40"
7 NW of Brainerd, MN:  1.85"
3 NE of Nisswa, MN:  2.02"
Cass Lake, MN:  1.02"
Togo, MN:  0.80"
Cook, MN:  1.01"
Embarrass, MN:  0.85"
Floodwood, MN:  0.99"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.88"
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  1.27"
Kabetogama, MN:  1.46"
Finland, MN:  0.67"
Butternut, WI:  0.95"
Gurney, WI:  1.34"
Madeline Island, WI:  1.57"
Upson, WI:  0.85"
9 N of Bayfield, WI:  2.62"
Solon Springs, WI:  1.75"
2 S of Cohasset, MN:  2.16"

-Here's another map showing the rainfall totals from last night















*Record 24 hour rainfall total in the Twin Cities*

1.74" of rain fell on July 24th, 2012 at the Twin Cities.  This is a new 24 hour rainfall record.  The previous record was 1.44" set in 1985.  (Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times)

Weather Tidbits:

*Today's rainfall total of 1.56" is the heaviest daily total so far this month at Duluth, Minnesota.  The previous highest rainfall total was 0.55" on July 6th.

*Duluth/Superior Harbor water temperature sits at a balmy 73.3 degrees Today.  The all-time daily average high temperature record for Lake Superior is 71F which occurred in mid-August 2010.  The average surface water temps at this time of year are in the mid 50s, so these temperatures are running about 20 degrees warmer than average.  Peak water temperatures in Lake Superior usually occur during the next 3 weeks, and forecasters indicate that an 80 degree water temp in Lake Superior is possible by mid-August.  (Updraft. Minnesota Public Radio)

*Today is the 30th day in a row with a high temperature of at least 80F in the Twin Cities and is the 24th day at or above 90F this summer.  (Twitter; @KSTP; @KenBarlowWx)

*Today is the 11th day this year with a high temperature >105 degrees at St. Louis, Missouri.  This is a new record for a calendar year.  The previous record was 10 days in 1934.  (Twitter; @TriStatesWx; NWSStLouis)

*Only 12 tornadoes so far this month in the U.S., that's a record low pace with 23 being the monthly low records set in 1950 and 1951.  (Twitter; @JimCantore; DrGregForbes)

*5 tornadoes confirmed in Saskatchewan on Tuesday per Environment Canada.

*NWS Duluth Storm Damage Survey Team states that Downburst type wind damage occurred on July 23rd, 2012 6 S of Indington, MN (St. Louis County)  Trees were down around Sand Lake, and along County Roads 106, 65, 461, and 668.


Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1002mb was centered in Southeast Minnesota as of 3 PM with a warm front extending northeast into Central Wisconsin.  Low pressure of 1002mb was over far Northwest Minnesota late This Afternoon with a cold front heading east from the Northern Plains.  A tropical like day throughout the Northland with dew points in the 60s and 70s.  Skies were fairly cloudy though so high temperatures topped out in the mid 70s to low 80s.  There's been a few showers at times This Afternoon in Sawyer and Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin, otherwise it's been dry for the remainder of our area.

-Enhanced satellite image from early This Morning showing the large thunderstorm complex (MCS) as it rolls across Minnesota and Wisconsin.
















Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A westerly flow covered the Upper Midwest while a strong upper low with 30-60 meter 12 hour height falls drops SE out of Eastern Saskatchewan per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +20 to +24C across Southern Minnesota to +14 to +18C in Northern, Central, and Western Minnesota.

-500mb map for 7 AM Today




















Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (July 25th)

The atmosphere was slowly destabilizing This Afternoon especially in Western-Southwest parts of our area, this is where a few showers and thunderstorms may occur Tonight as a cold front works slowly SE out of Western Minnesota.  CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg will be in place prior to Midnight with Lifted Indices of -2 to -5C, mainly from International Falls to Grand Rapids and McGregor, points west to the Brainerd Lakes, Walker, and Cass Lake areas.  If storms develop and or move into these areas during the Evening, they could be strong to severe with hail and gusty winds. 

The amount of instability will decrease late Tonight, so anything that comes out of Northcentral Minnesota should diminish to a few showers in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Overnight.  Note:  A few other storms could organize This Evening in Sawyer and Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin near the warm front and a surface low coming out of Southeast Minnesota, however, the greater chance for severe weather should be south/east of that area.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of north, west, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

-Tonight's low temperature forecast














Thursday and Thursday Night (July 26th)

A fairly vigorous upper level low/trough will dig into the Upper Midwest on Thursday before it exits to our south/east Thursday Night.  With some cold air aloft it won't take much heating to get scattered showers and thunderstorms going across the Northland.  The more robust storms during the Afternoon-early Evening hours could contain small hail and gusty winds, but a major severe weather outbreak is not expected at this time.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with 60s in the Arrowhead and Borderland regions.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the north, west, or east at 10 to 20 mph.

-Thursday's severe weather forecast per Storm Prediction Center.  5% chance across Northern Minnesota and Northeast Minnesota.  15% chance in Eastern Minnesota, Duluth/Superior, and Northwest Wisconsin.














-Thursday's high temperature forecast















-Rainfall forecast for Tonight and Thursday, ending at 7 PM Tomorrow.  (HPC)


















Extended Forecast, Friday-Sunday (July 27th-29th)

An upper level low/trough will be located east of our area on Friday, lingering instability behind that system may be enough to trigger spotty Afternoon showers in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but coverage should be less compared to Thursday.  Dry weather is then expected for Saturday with a few showers or thunderstorms possibly returning to the area for Sunday.

Daytime highs in the 70s can be expected for Friday with 70s and 80s ahead for Saturday-Sunday.  Lows in the 40s and 50s are forecast Friday Night with 50s and lower 60s for Saturday Night.

Long Range Forecast (July 30th-August 4th)

Looks like we may see a few showers or thunderstorms at times during this period with a stalled front to our west-south and another boundary up to our north with a west or west-northwest flow persisting in the Upper Midwest while a heat waves continues for the Rockies, Plains, and perhaps as far north as the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Temperatures are forecast to be at or above average through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Muggy This Evening.  Considerable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph, becoming east.

.Thursday...  Variable cloudiness.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  High 72 to 77.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Thursday Night...  Scattered showers or thunderstorms during the Evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 73 to 78.

.Friday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 55 to 60.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 78 to 83.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Thursday:  5:42 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:48 PM CDT

Thursday's UV Index:  8.0/Medium-High


Tim

Nintendo Wii Dream Pinball 3D