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Showing posts from July, 2012

Spirit Valley Days forecast in Today's blog. Latest info. on the storm potential for late Tonight-Wednesday, and for later this week.

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Issued at 4:13 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 31st, 2012

*Spirit Valley Days weather forecast for West Duluth*
Wednesday, August 1st:

Temperatures in the 80s during the Afternoon and early Evening hours, falling to around 70 degrees by mid to late Evening.  40% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday, August 2nd:

-Parade weather (6-7 PM)  Temperatures around 80 degrees and dry.
-Fireworks weather (10:20 PM)  Temperatures falling into the 60s and dry.

Friday, August 3rd:

-Street Dance weather (7 PM-1 AM)  Temperatures around 70 degrees.  40% chance of rain.

*15z 7.31.12 SREF model calibrated severe weather forecast for 7 PM Wednesday.  Still seeing higher values for potential severe weather from Southcentral-Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin.
















*Record Event* Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

25 days this month with a high temperature of at least 80F at Duluth, Minnesota.  This is the most on record for any month.  The previous record was 24 days set in July 1988…

Nice Tonight, and July will end on a mild/dry note on Tuesday. Possible storms for Wednesday.

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Issued at 3:51 PM CDT, Monday, July 30th, 2012

Tonight:  Clear-partly cloudy.  Spotty shower early? Patchy fog late.

Tuesday:  Mild temps, comfortable humidity.

Wednesday:  Warm, somewhat humid.  Possible showers and thunderstorms.

Rainfall report for Sunday Evening-early Monday Morning, July 29-30, 2012 Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  0.77"
Grand Marais, MN:  1.30"
Hibbing, MN:  0.86"
Cook, MN:  0.34"
Embarrass, MN:  0.26"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.56"
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  0.50"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.53"
3 E of Orr, MN:  0.33"
Finland, MN:  0.22"
Gurney, WI:  2.10"
Madeline Island, WI:  0.21"
Upson, WI:  0.78"
9 N of Bayfield, WI:  0.22"

Weather Tidbits:
*As of July 29:  23 days this month at or above 80F at Duluth, Minnesota.  Yearly total is up to 33 days.  We've also had 3 days at or above 90F so far this year at the Duluth Airport.

*This month will likely be the 1st mo…

*Severe T-storm Watch until 3 AM Monday*

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Issued at 7:51 PM CDT, Sunday, July 29th, 2012

















*SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #539* Source:  Storm Prediction Center

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for Northern Minnesota until 3 AM CDT Monday.

Hazards:


Hail to 2" in diameter
Thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph
Dangerous Lightning

Counties in the Duluth area included in the watch are:

Koochiching, MN
Itasca, MN
St. Louis, MN
Lake, MN

Some cities included in the watch are:

International Falls, MN...Grand Rapids, MN...Duluth, MN...Hibbing, MN...Ely, MN...Two Harbors, MN...Silver Bay, MN...Finland, MN...and Isabella, MN.

**Remember a severe thunderstorm watch means that conditions are favorable for severe weather in and close to the watch area, persons in these areas should listen for later updates and for possible warnings.  Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes**

Tim


Could see some storms Tonight and Monday. Possible wind shift to the east in Duluth Tonight.

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Issued at 6:54 PM CDT, Sunday, July 29th, 2012

Tonight:  Some clouds, muggy, showers/t-storms for some.  (A few could be strong to severe)

Monday:  Humid.  A few showers and t-storms.

Tuesday:  Warm temps, but mostly dry.

High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
July 22-28, 2012

7/22:  90F/13 degrees above average.
7/23:  85F/8 degrees above average.
7/24:  81F/4 degrees above average.
7/25:  81F/4 degrees above average.
7/26:  79F/2 degrees above average.
7/27:  73F/4 degrees below average.
7/28:  80F/3 degrees above average.

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
July 22-28, 2012

7/22:  60F/4 degrees above average.
7/23:  61F/5 degrees above average.
7/24:  60F/4 degrees above average.
7/25:  65F/9 degrees above average.
7/26:  61F/5 degrees above average.
7/27:  57F/1 degree above average.
7/28:  58F/2 degrees above average.

-Temperatures last week were about 3 degrees warmer than average in Duluth.



















*Rainfall total for July 22-28, 2012:  

40% chance of a severe t-storm watch in N.MN. MD issued by the SPC.

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Issued at 2:41 PM CDT, Sunday, July 29th, 2012

*A mesoscale discussion has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for Northern Minnesota.  This is valid until 4:45 PM Today.  Chances the SPC issue a thunderstorm watch is 40%*
-Image from the Storm Prediction Center.

















There will be a scattering of showers and thunderstorms across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin through late Tonight.  The atmosphere was becoming unstable This Afternoon and sufficient amounts of instability should linger at least through the Evening hours to support a few severe thunderstorms.

CAPE is forecast to range from 1000-2000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -3 to -6C.  Effective Bulk Shear and 0-6 KM shear is forecast to be around 30-35 knots.  Mid level winds should remain <40 knots with a low level jet increasing to 30-40 knots This Evening.

An area of showers and thunderstorms was moving toward the Arrowhead of Minnesota as of mid-Afternoon, and additional development is expected to occur farther…

Possible showers late Tonight/Sunday AM. 80s should return Sunday Afternoon. A few storms Sunday Night?

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Issued at 8:06 PM CDT, Saturday, July 28th, 2012

Tonight:  Mild.  Some clouds.  A few showers or t-storms possible

Sunday:  Warm, moderately humid.  A few showers or t-storms possible.

Monday:  Warm, small shower or t-storm chances.

-18z 7.28.12 NAM-HIRES computer model for 7 PM Sunday.  This model is hinting at some storms late Sunday Afternoon and Evening across the Northern half of Minnesota.















Low temperature report for July 28th, 2012 Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  47F
Hibbing, MN:  47F
Ashland, WI:  47F
Hayward, WI:  46F
Silver Bay, MN:  45F
Eveleth, MN:  46F
Crane Lake, MN:  48F
Phillips, WI:  46F
Embarrass, MN:  48F
Butternut, WI:  45F
Gurney, WI:  46F
Upson, WI:  44F
Winter, WI:  46F

Weather History:
On this date in 2006, a record high temperature of 97 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A beautiful summer day througout the Northland with sunny partly cloud…

An Overnight dew alert! Patchy fog, cool in the bogs! 70s-80s this weekend w/a few showers or t-storms possible.

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Issued at 4:13 PM CDT, Friday, July 27th, 2012

Tonight:  Clear to partly cloudy skies.  Pleasantly cool temperatures.

Saturday:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Afternoon and or Nighttime showers/t-storms possible.

Sunday:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Possible showers/t-storms.  Mild temperatures.

-A minimal (5% chance) for severe thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Sunday, July 29th, 2012.  (SPC)














Weather Tidbits:
*1,513 record high and record high-low temperatures in the U.S. last week.  (HAMweather)

*With the recent rainfall in Duluth, we've made up some ground in our monthly precipitation deficit.  Thru July 26th, we've had 3.06" of rain which is 0.23" below normal.  We continue to have a precipitation surplus since June 1st (+5.57") and since January 1st (+10.36")

Rainfall report for July 26th, 2012 Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.66"
Brainerd, MN:  0.38"
Ashland, WI:  0.39"
Hayward, WI:  …

Scattered showers This Evening, patchy fog late. 70s on Friday. 80 degrees Saturday and Sunday.

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Issued at 4:35 PM CDT, Thursday, July 26th, 2012

Tonight:  Scattered showers, a few thunderstorms.  Showers diminish late.  Patchy fog?

Friday:  Isolated Afternoon showers? Sun/cloud mix.  Pleasant summer temperatures.

Saturday:  SW winds, mild-warm temps, comfy humidity.  Dry.

-Climate Prediction Center showing enhanced odds for above normal rainfall (40% chance) in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during the 6-10 day period, August 1-5.



















Weather History:
On this date in 1991:  A record low temperature of 41 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.


Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure averaging 1008mb was centered in Northeast Minnesota late This Afternoon with a cold front sinking south out of Northern Minnesota.  The low and cold front, combined with a potent upper low (chilly air aloft) led to the development of widespread, but scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the area Today.  None of the storms have been sev…

1300+ Counties in 31 states declared drought disaster areas per USDA. Latest drought update for MN and WI.

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Issued at 3:02 PM CDT, Thursday, July 26th, 2012

*Latest Drought Update* Source:  Climate Prediction Center

As of July 24th, 2012:

*62% of Minnesota is Abnormally Dry which is the same as last week.
*37% of Minnesota is in Moderate Drought which is up from 33% last week.
*13% of Minnesota is in Severe Drought which is up from 7% last week.

-The latest drought monitor map for Minnesota.  Northwest, Southwest, and far Southern Minnesota are in severe drought.















For Wisconsin:

The Southern half of the state continues to be under Severe or Extreme Drought conditions this week.  35% of the state is in Severe Drought which is up from 26% last week.  19% of the Badger state is in Extreme Drought which is up from 18% last week.

-Drought monitor map for Wisconsin.  The Southern half of the state continues to be in Severe or Extreme Drought this week.















For the Midwest:

73% is in Moderate Drought, 55% is in Severe Drought, 28% is in Extreme Drought, 4% is in Exceptional Drought.  All these numbers ar…

Only 12 tornadoes in the U.S. this month, fewest since 1950-51. 5 twisters in Saskatchewan on Tuesday. Radar/rainfall reports from last night's storms. A cool satellite loop showing last night's MCS in MN and WI.

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Issued at 3:47 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 25th, 2012

Tonight:  A few showers/t-storms west-northwest and southeast areas.

Thursday:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday:  Small shower chance, a mix of sun/clouds

-Here's a doppler plot of the rainfall that occurred earlier Today.  The legend is on the left.















A widespread soaking rain early This Morning across much of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
Rainfall totals for July 25th, 2012 Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  1.56"
International Falls, MN:  0.63"
Brainerd, MN:  1.60"
Grand Marais, MN:  1.18"
Hibbing, MN:  0.98"
Ashland, WI:  0.68"
Hayward, WI:  0.76"
4 S of Bruno, MN:  1.40"
7 NW of Brainerd, MN:  1.85"
3 NE of Nisswa, MN:  2.02"
Cass Lake, MN:  1.02"
Togo, MN:  0.80"
Cook, MN:  1.01"
Embarrass, MN:  0.85"
Floodwood, MN:  0.99"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.88"
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  1.27"
Kabetogama, M…