Thursday, May 31, 2012

Another cool night ahead with a frost threat away from Lake Superior. Updated June climate outlooks.

Issued at 4:12 PM CDT, Thursday, May 31st, 2012


  • Tonight:  Mostly clear, light winds, cool temperatures.  Possible frost!
  • Friday:  A mix of sun/clouds, spotty showers West areas? Near normal temps.
  • Saturday:  Near to slightly above avg. temps. Mix of sun/clouds.

*Updated climate outlook for June 2012 issued by the Climate Prediction Center*

-For Duluth, Minnesota:  A 40% chance for above normal temperatures with equal chances for above, below, or average precipitation.

































Low temperature report for May 31st, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  34F
International Falls, MN:  29F
Hibbing, MN:  31F
Two Harbors, MN:  30F
Silver Bay, MN:  27F
Grand Marais, MN:  28F
Ely, MN:  30F
Orr, MN:  28F
Crane Lake, MN:  28F
Cook, MN:  30F
Superior, WI:  34F
Northome, MN:  31F
Embarrass, MN:  27F
Kabetogama, MN:  30F
3 E of Orr, MN:  28F
2 S of Tower, MN:  29F
Gurney, WI:  31F
Upson, WI:  31F

Weather Tidbits:

*Low temperature of 34F on May 31st at the Duluth Airport is the coldest minimum temperature since April 29th when the low temperature was 33F.

*May 2012 will go into the books as the 11th consecutive month to finish above average in the temperature department (July '11-May '12) and the 4th consecutive month with above average precipitation (February-May '12)

*29F at International Falls, Minnesota This Morning.  Tied the record low temperature for the 31st of May.  The previous record was set in 1910.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Partly to mostly sunny skies were found in our area Today with highs getting back into the 60s which is a few degrees below to around seasonal levels as we close out the end of May.  High pressure ridge of 1018-1020mb remained in control of our weather Today as it sits over the Upper Midwest.  Winds were variable at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

An upper level trough with up to 60 meter per 12 hour height falls covered the Upper Midwest and Central/Northern Great Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranged from +2 to +4C in Southern Minnesota to +6 to +8C in Northern Minnesota.

-2km visible satellite image of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest from This Afternoon.  Note:  The absence of clouds close to Lake Superior as a light lake breeze developed Today resulting in a stable atmosphere.















Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (May 31st)

Clear to partly cloudy skies will occur with light winds under 10 mph.  Another chilly night ahead as lows drop into the 30s and lower 40s with 20s possible away from Lake Superior.  Areas of frost will develop once again Overnight.

-Tonight's low temperature forecast.













-Tonight's frost/freeze potential.













Friday and Friday Night (June 1st)

Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected on Friday.  There could be a few Afternoon/Evening showers that develop in Western parts of our area, from International Falls and Walker, south to Brainerd and Aitkin.  It should remain dry in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with southwest or northeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.  For Friday Night, expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky with lows mainly in the 40s, winds will be out of the west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

-Friday's high temperature forecast.













-4km Hi-Res NAM from Today.  This is valid for late Friday Afternoon.  Could be a few spotty rain showers late Tomorrow PM in Minnesota, west of the Twin Ports.
















Extended Forecast, Saturday-Monday (June 2nd-4th)

A west-northwest flow will cover the Upper Midwest during this period as an upper level low lifts slowly N/NE across the Eastern Great Lakes and Eastern Canada.  A small chance for a shower does exist on Saturday with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s, lows will be in the 40s and 50s.  Sunday and Monday look generally dry at this time, but a disturbance dropping southeast out of the Northern Plains could lead to a few showers/thunderstorms late this weekend and early next week, however, it remains to be seen just how far north/east the better moisture and instability can make it.  High temperatures will remain in the 60s and 70s for Sunday and Monday with lows Sunday Night in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast (June 5th-11th)

Upper level pattern continues to look fairly amplified/blocky for most of next week, although there are some trends showing up for a possible pattern shift beginning next weekend.  As long as we sit under the upper level ridge we should be dry with any showers/thunderstorms staying over the Rockies and Northern Plains. Showers or thunderstorms may head east into the Upper Midwest sometime during the June 8-11 time frame.  Temperatures are forecast to be near to above average through this period.

-GFS upper level forecast for next Tuesday, June 5th.  Still looks like an amplified configuration with troughs in the Northwest and Northeast U.S. and upper level ridging over the Plains.















5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Cool.  Patchy frost possible away from Lake Superior.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Breezy.  Partly sunny.  High 68 to 73.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

.Sunday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Low 50 to 55.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 68 to 73.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  67
Low:  45

Sunrise Friday:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:56 PM CDT

Friday's allergy forecast:  7.3/Medium-High
Friday's UV Index:  7.0/Medium

Tim





Frost and Flood Headlines.

Issued at 3:15 PM CDT, Thursday, May 31st, 2012

*Frost Advisory*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A frost advisory is in effect from 1am to 7am CDT Friday for the following Counties.

In Northeast Minnesota:

Cook
Lake
Central/Northern St. Louis

In Northwest Wisconsin:

Bayfield
Ashland
Iron
Washburn
Sawyer
Price

Some cities included in the advisory are:  Grand Marais MN...Isabella MN...Silver Bay MN...Finland MN...Two Harbors MN...Cotton MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...and Orr MN.

Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Hayward WI...and Park Falls WI.

Mostly clear skies and light winds will result in another chilly night in the Northland.  Low temperatures are forecast to fall to between 30 and 35 degrees.  Areas of frost are expected to develop Overnight.

A frost advisory means that frost is possible.  Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left unprotected.

*Flood Warning*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Aitkin.

*At 9am Thursday the stage was 15.1 feet.
*Flood stage is 12.0 feet
*Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.

*The river will continue to fall to a stage of 15.0 feet by Tomorrow Morning.

*At 15.0 feet minor flooding of low lying areas occurs in Aitkin.

*Flood Warning*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Brainerd.

*At 9:30am Thursday the stage was 14.4 feet.
*Flood stage is 13.0 feet

*At 13.0 feet this will cause flooding of low lying areas.

*Flood Warning*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Fort Ripley.

*At 9:00am Thursday the stage was 11.7 feet.
*Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
*Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

*The river will continue to rise to near 11.8 feet Tomorrow then begin falling.

*At 12.0 feet the boat landing and parking lot at the public access are under water.

Note:  The flood warning for the St. Louis River near Scanlon and for Pine and Southern Carlton Counties have been allowed to expire.  No additional flooding is expected in these areas.

-NWS warning and advisory map.

blue=frost advisory
green=flood warning















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The drought continues to improve in the Northland

Issued at 11:03 AM CDT, Thursday, May 31st, 2012


-Minnesota Drought Monitor as of May 29, 2012 per Climate Prediction Center.














The very wet weather pattern as of late has eased the drought that had been in place over much of Minnesota.

*46.54% of Minnesota is abnormally dry which is down from 81.48% at this time last week and down from 99.21% on February 28th.

*14.08% of Minnesota is in Moderate Drought which is down from 32.59% at this time last week and down from 96.12% on February 28th.

*Severe Drought has been eliminated in Minnesota.  *24.10% of the state was in Severe Drought back on February 28th.















-Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index shows that the Northwest 1/2 of Minnesota needs 3-6" of additional precipitation to get back to average.  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin is doing much better.

-Seasonal Drought Outlook issued on May 17, 2012 by the Climate Prediction Center.  This is valid thru August 31, 2012.  Looks promising for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.















Tim

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Frost possible late Tonight. 60s return on Thursday.

Issued at 4:04 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 30th, 2012


  • Tonight:  Cool with some clouds.  Patchy frost?
  • Thursday:  A mix of sun/clouds.  Milder temperatures
  • Friday:  A mix of sun/clouds.  Near normal temperatures

-Another night of a frost/freeze threat in the Northland.  No headlines for frost have been issued by the National Weather Service as of late This Afternoon, but this could change during the Evening hours.













Weather Tidbits:

-It's been an active stretch in regards to the number of severe weather reports across the U.S.  47 tornado reports and 1,669 severe weather reports from May 20-29.  (SPC)

5/20:  86/0 tornadoes
5/21:  111/3 tornadoes
5/22:  156/0 tornadoes
5/23:  106/1 tornado
5/24:  69/2 tornadoes
5/25:  78/32 tornadoes
5/26:  61/0 tornadoes
5/27:  245/5 tornadoes
5/28:  233/1 tornado
5/29:  524/3 tornadoes

Weather History:

On this date in 1990:  A record low temperature of 29F occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A ridge of high pressure averaging 1016-1018mb stretched from the Northern Plains to Lake Superior.  A very cool day with skies turning mostly sunny in Northern Minnesota while more clouds than sun was found in Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Today were in the 50s with variable winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with a well defined disturbance tracking SE through the Dakotas per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranged from 0C in Northeast Minnesota to +2 to +4C in Western, Central and Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (May 30th)

High pressure will be in control of our weather resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies.  The disturbance across the Northern Plains will stay well to our west/south Tonight, rain associated with that feature will stay in Southern parts of Minnesota.  Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s with light winds.  Patchy frost is possible away from Lake Superior Overnight.

-Tonight's low temperature forecast.













Thursday and Thursday (May 31st)

The final day of May will be fairly pleasant in our area with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Temperatures should warm a bit with highs mainly in the 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the west, southwest or north at 5 to 15 mph.

-Thursday's high temperature forecast.













Extended Forecast, Friday-Sunday (June 1st-3rd)

A northwest flow will occur for Friday and Saturday.  Can't rule out a few showers, especially on Saturday. But, for the most part this period looks dry.  High temperatures from Friday-Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 40s to lower 50s.

Long Range Forecast (June 4th-10th)

Upper level pattern is forecast to become rather amplified during this period.  Deep upper troughs are forecast to cover the Western U.S. and Northeast U.S. with an upper level ridge across the Plains.  This will be a slow moving type of pattern, so once it develops it probably will not change for several days.  There is a small chance for showers/thunderstorms next Monday (4th) otherwise it looks generally dry through the 10th.  Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal.

-HPC's 500mb forecast for next Wednesday, June 6th, 2012.  A highly amplified pattern for the U.S. Troughs over the Northeast U.S. and Western U.S. and a nice ridge for the Plains.  Should the pattern develop like what is shown here, then a period of dry weather should occur across Minnesota for most of next week.















5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind variable under 10 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 62 to 67.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind west around 10 mph.

.Friday...  Variable cloudiness.  High 65 to 70.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 65 to 70.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  66
Low:  44

Sunrise Thursday:  5:19 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:55 PM CDT

Tim







*Updated Flood Information*

Issued at 3:46 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 30th, 2012

*Flood Warning*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Louis River at Scanlon affecting Carlton County.

*At 1:30 PM CDT Today the stage was10.7 feet.
*Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
*Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

*The river will continue to rise to near 10.9 feet during the rest of the Afternoon.  The river will fall below flood stage Saturday Evening.

*At 11.0 feet businesses in Scanlon adjacent to the river are affected.

*Flood Warning*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Flood Warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Aitkin.

*At 1:00 PM CDT Today the stage was 15.0 feet.
*Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
*Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.

*The river will remain near 15.0 feet This Afternoon.  Additional rises are possible thereafter.

*At 15.0 feet minor flooding of low lying areas occurs in Aitkin.

*Flood Warning*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Flood Warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Fort Ripley.

*At 9:00 AM CDT Today the stage was 11.5 feet
*Flood stage is 10.0 feet
*Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

*The river will continue to rise to near 12.2 feet by Saturday Morning then begin falling.

*At 12.0 feet the boat landing and parking lot at the public access are under water.

*Flood Warning*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Flood Warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Brainerd.

*At 1:30 PM CDT Today the stage was 14.5 feet.
*Flood stage is 13.0 feet.

*At 16.0 feet this may cause flooding of at least one private home.
*River levels are expected to remain steady then slowly fall.

*Flood Warning* remains in effect for Pine County in Eastcentral Minnesota and for Southern Carlton County in Northeast Minnesota until 11:00 AM CDT Thursday.















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Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Autumn is in the air, for now. Possible frost Tonight north of Duluth.

Issued at 8:20 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 29th, 2012


  • Tonight:  Cool.  Frost possible North areas.  Clearing skies late
  • Wednesday:  Cool with a mix of sun/clouds.  Dry.
  • Thursday:  Continued dry and a little warmer

-Still quite an expansive area of clouds covering Northern Minnesota early This Evening.  Going to have to get some clearing to take place Overnight in order for some frost to form.  Frost Advisory in effect 4am-7am north of the Twin Ports.


















May 20th-26th high temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

5/20:  56F/8 degrees below normal
5/21:  71F/7 degrees above normal
5/22:  66F/2 degrees above normal
5/23:  69F/5 degrees above normal
5/24:  59F/6 degrees below normal
5/25:  65F/normal
5/26:  60F/5 degrees below normal

May 20th-26th low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

5/20:  42F/normal
5/21:  39F/3 degrees below normal
5/22:  51F/9 degrees above normal
5/23:  53F/10 degrees above normal
5/24:  53F/10 degrees above normal
5/25:  47F/4 degrees above normal
5/26:  44F/1 degree above normal

-Temperatures this past week were just slightly above normal in Duluth.


















-Precipitation was way above normal in Duluth last week.  We saw precipitation totals some 500% above what we normally would get during the period 5/20-5/26.



















Note:  3.92" of rain fell this past week at the Duluth Airport.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

*6.61" of rain has fallen so far this month which is 3.61" above normal.
*11.93" of precipitation has fallen since March 1st which is 5.01" above normal.
*13.71" of precipitation has fallen since January 1st which is 5.02" above normal.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1000mb has moved into Central Quebec Province with high pressure of 1018mb covering the Northern Plains.  A cool day with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies in our area.  Spotty light rain showers also occurred.  Highs ranged from the lower 50s in far Northern Minnesota to the middle 50s and lower 60s elsewhere.  These temperatures are running anywhere from 5 to around 20 degrees below normal for late May.  Winds were out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  A potent upper low/trough with it's 60-90 meter height falls was beginning to pull east and out of the Upper Midwest This Evening.  A chilly airmass for late May with early Evening 850mb temperatures ranging from 0C in Northern Minnesota to -2 to -6C in Ontario to +2 to +6C in Southern/Eastern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (May 29th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue with any lingering light rain showers ending before Midnight.  Cold air advection will continue ahead of the Northern Plains high Tonight.  Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with north or west winds at 5 to 15 mph.  Scattered frost is expected to develop just before dawn in Northern Minnesota, the Iron Range, and Arrowhead and also for locations inland from the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Frost Advisory is in effect from 4am-7am Wednesday for Koochiching, Itasca, Northern Cass, Central/Northern St. Louis, Northern Lake, and Northern Cook Counties in Minnesota.

-Tonight's low temperature forecast.













-Tonight's frost/freeze threat.













Wednesday and Wednesday Night (May 30th)

High pressure moves into our area during this period.  Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the 50s and 60s with lows 30s and 40s.  Could be some patchy frost once again late Wednesday Night.  Winds will be out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph.

-Wednesday's high temperature forecast.













Extended Forecast, Thursday-Saturday (May 31st-June 2nd)

This period looks mainly dry, although with a NW flow in place it's possible that we may see an Afternoon shower or two pop up, especially on Friday and Saturday.  The main weather system for this period will be a strong area of low pressure which is forecast to track NE out of the Southern Plains, reaching the Central-Eastern Great Lakes for Friday and Saturday.  Widespread rain and cool temperatures near this low should stay south/east of our local area.  High temperatures will mainly be in the 60s in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, a few locales may even climb into the 70s by Friday and Saturday.  Lows for Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the 40s.

Long Range Forecast (June 3rd-9th)

May see a wetter pattern redevelop across the region as warmer air begins to lift back to the north while a zonal or southwest 500mb flow develops.  The GFS has a wetter scenario for Minnesota with the EUROPEAN showing a drier and more amplified weather pattern with deep upper troughs over the Western U.S. and Northeast U.S. while an upper level ridge dominates the Central Plains and Upper Midwest which would keep our area generally dry from Tuesday-Saturday June 5th-9th.  Both models, however, do agree on some sort of system coming thru between Sunday-Monday, June 3rd-4th.  Temperatures will be near seasonal levels for early June.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 56 to 61.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind northwest around 10 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday...  Variable cloudiness.  High 60 to 65.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 65 to 70.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  66
Low:  44

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:19 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:54 PM CDT

Wednesday's Allergy Forecast:  7.2/Medium
Wednesday's UV Index:  6.0/Medium

Tim





Flood and Frost Headlines

Issued at 4:24 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 29th, 2012

*Flood Warning*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Flood Warning continues for the Mississippi River near Brainerd affecting Crow Wing County.

*At 3:30pm Tuesday the stage was 14.2 feet.
*Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
*At 13.0 feet this will cause minor flooding of low lying areas.

*Flood Warning*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Flood Warning continues until Friday Morning for the St. Louis River at Scanlon affecting Carlton County.

*At 11:30am Tuesday the stage was 10.6 feet.
*Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
*Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
*The river will continue to rise to near 10.7 feet around Midnight Tomorrow.  The river will fall below flood stage early Friday Morning.

*At 10.5 feet flooding of two businesses occurs in Scanlon.

*Flood Warning*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Flood Warning in effect for Pine County in Eastcentral Minnesota and for Southern Carlton County in Northeast Minnesota until 11am CDT Thursday.

At 11:12am:  Local Law Enforcement reported flooding across parts of Southern Carlton and Pine Counties.  Flooding was reported along stretches of the Kettle River and upstream along the shores of Moosehead Lake at Moose Lake.  The police chief of Moose Lake reported that the city was sandbagging along Lakeshore Drive and Birch Avenue.

*Flood Warning*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Flood Warning continues for the Mississippi River near Aitkin.

*At 9am Tuesday the stage was 14.7 feet.
*Flood stage was 12.0 feet.
*Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
*The river will continue to rise to near 15.5 feet by Thursday Morning then begin falling.

*At 15.0 feet minor flooding of low lying areas occurs in Aitkin.

*Flood Warning*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Flood Warning continues for the Mississippi River near Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing Counties.

*At 9am Tuesday the stage was 11.0 feet
*Flood stage is 10.0 feet
*Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
*The river will continue to rise to near 12.5 feet by Thursday Evening then begin falling.

*At 12.0 feet the boat landing and parking lot at the public access are under water.

*Frost Advisory*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Frost Advisory is in effect from 4am until 7am Wednesday for the following counties:

-Koochiching MN
-Itasca MN
-Northern Cass MN
-Central/Northern St. Louis MN
-Northern Lake MN
-Northern Cook MN

*Some cities included in the advisory are:  International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Hibbing, Ely, Orr, Crane Lake, and Isabella.

Low temperatures Tonight will fall to between 33 to 36 degrees.  The frost could damage crops and other vegatation.

A frost advisory means that frost is possible.  Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Blue=Frost Advisory
Light Green=Flood Warning

NWS watch, warning, advisory map















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A wild Memorial Day Weekend with heavy rain and severe weather. A complete list of rainfall and storm reports. Lots of radar grabs from Monday's storms.

Issued at 12:15 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 29th, 2012

-Doppler radar rainfall estimates for the past few days.  A ton of rain in Northeast-Eastern Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin.



























*Rainfall totals for the Saturday Night/Sunday Morning period; May 26-27, 2012*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Northwest Wisconsin:

Oulu (Bayfield County)  1.25"
Clam Lake (Ashland County)  1.21"
10 N of Brule (Douglas County)  1.50"
5 S of Herbster (Bayfield County)  1.10"
10 S of Superior (Douglas County)  2.81" measured at Pattison State Park

Northeast Minnesota:

3 N of Merrifield (Crow Wing County)  3.14"
Aitkin (Aitkin County)  1.22"
Leech Lake (Cass County)  1.35"
Pine Center (Crow Wing County)  1.61"
Hibbing (St. Louis County)  1.09"
Pillager (Cass County)  2.00"
7 NW of Brainerd (Crow Wing County)  3.08"
Wrenshall (Carlton County)  1.74"
3 N of Brainerd (Crow Wing County)  3.42"
2 NE of Nisswa (Crow Wing County)  2.26"

Twin Ports area:

Proctor (St. Louis County)  1.12"
Duluth (St. Louis County)  0.71"

-Rainfall map for Saturday-Sunday Morning.




























*Rainfall totals for the Sunday/Monday Morning time period; May 27-28, 2012*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.96"
International Falls, MN:  0.44"
Brainerd, MN:  1.12"
Hibbing, MN:  1.36"
4 S of Bruno, MN:  1.50"
7 NW of Brainerd, MN:  1.01"
Bruno, MN:  3.58"
12 N of Isle, MN:  1.03"
3 NE of Nisswa, MN:  1.35"
3 E of Wright, MN:  0.97"
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN:  1.30"
Cook, MN:  1.31"
3 E of Orr, MN:  1.84"
Floodwood, MN:  0.86"
Embarrass, MN:  0.87"
Solon Springs, WI:  1.35"

-Rainfall map for Sunday-Morning Morning.



























*Local Storm Report for Sunday Evening; May 27, 2012*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

-6:38pm 5/27/12:  0.50" HAIL.  Siren, WI (Burnett County)

-6:54pm 5/27/12:  0.75" HAIL.  Webster, WI (Burnett County)

-6:45pm 5/27/12:  1.00" HAIL.  Siren, WI (Burnett County)

-8:03pm 5/27/12:  0.88" HAIL.  Hinckley, MN (Pine County)

-8.14pm 5/27/12:  55mph THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  4 S of Grantsburg, WI (Burnett County)

-9:24pm 5/27/12:  0.50" HAIL.  Pine City, MN (Pine County)

-9am 5/27/12:  0.25" HAIL.  Leech Lake, MN (Cass County)  Heavy amounts of pea sized hail.

-SPC's storm reports map for Sunday, May 27, 2012.























*Heavy rainfall totals*

Trade Lake, WI (Burnett County)  4.50"  3.00" fell in 1 hour between 6-7pm Sunday.
2 SW of Hinckley, MN (Pine County)  4.10"
7 NE of Bruno, MN (Pine County)  3.58"

*Local Storm Report for Monday, May 28, 2012*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

-12:20pm 5/28/12:  1.00" HAIL.  Ironton, MN (Crow Wing County)

-12:20pm 5/28/12:  0.88" HAIL.  Deerwood, MN (Crow Wing County)

-12:29pm 5/28/12:  1.00" HAIL.  1 SE of Aitkin, MN (Aitkin County)

-12:50pm 5/28/12:  1.75" HAIL.  Farm Island Lake, MN (Aitkin County)  Golfball sized hail.

-12:33pm 5/28/12:  0.25" HAIL.  Tamarack, MN (Aitkin County)  A 90 second period of pea sized hail.

-2:10pm 5/28/12:  1.00" HAIL.  Sawyer, MN (Carlton County)

-2:10pm 5/28/12:  1.00" HAIL.  2 E of Sawyer, MN (Carlton County)

-2:10pm 5/28/12:  1.75" HAIL.  1 S of Sawyer, MN (Carlton County)  Golfball sized hail.  A wall cloud was also reported.

-2:25pm 5/28/12:  1.75" HAIL.  2 W of Carlton, MN (Carlton County)  Golfball sized hail.

-2:25pm 5/28/12:  0.75" HAIL.  Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  1.00" HAIL.  6 SW of Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)  The hail was shredding leaves on trees.

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  0.25" HAIL.  Proctor, MN (St. Louis County)

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  0.25" HAIL.  1 S of Carlton, MN (Carlton County)  Dime sized hail covering the ground.

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  0.25" HAIL.  Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) Piedmont, Chambersburg vicinity.

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  1.75" HAIL.  Morgan Park, MN (St. Louis County)  Golfball sized hail.

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  1.50" HAIL.  Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) At 104th ave. west.

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  1.00" HAIL.  2 SW of Proctor, MN (St. Louis County)

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  0.25" HAIL.  Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) At 57th ave. west.

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  1.75" HAIL.  Gary New Duluth (St. Louis County)  Golfball sized hail.  Damaged siding.

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  0.25" HAIL.  Superior, WI (Douglas County) At Billings Park.

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  0.88" HAIL.  Superior, WI (Douglas County) At Billings Park.

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  0.75" HAIL.  Superior, WI (Douglas County)  Near UWS.

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  0.50" HAIL.  South Superior, WI (Douglas County)  Pea to marble sized hail.

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  0.25" HAIL.  Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) At 39th ave. west.

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  0.75" HAIL.  Superior, WI (Douglas County) At U.S. Highway 2 and 39th.

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  FLOOD.  3.00" of water covering the road at 88th ave. west and Grand Ave.  Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  1.25" HAIL.  2 SE of Port Wing, WI (Bayfield County) The ground was covered with hail.

-4:00pm 5/28/12:  1.00" HAIL.  5 S of Herbster, WI (Bayfield County)  The ground was completely white in several minutes with hail up to quarter sized.

-4:32pm 5/28/12:  FLOOD.  Willow River, MN (Pine County)  Scotch Pine Road washed out for 1000 yards at Highway 41.

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  0.50" HAIL.  Askov, MN (Pine County)

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  0.25" HAIL.  Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) At Central and Mesabi.

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  0.25" HAIL.  Wascott, WI (Douglas County) Accumulating on ground at firehouse.

-2:34pm 5/28/12:  0.25" HAIL.  Bennett, WI (Douglas County)

-4:10pm 5/28/12:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  5 S of Herbster, WI (Bayfield County)  75 foot tall, 2 foot diameter tree snapped near the base.  Time estimated by radar.

-SPC's storm reports map for Monday, May 28, 2012.

























*Rainfall totals for Monday, May 28, 2012*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.21"
Brainerd, MN:  0.23"
Ashland, WI:  0.32"
Hayward, WI:  0.18"
4 S of Bruno, MN:  0.84"
3 E of Wright, MN:  0.56"
Floodwood, MN:  0.38"
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  0.37"
2 S of Tower, MN:  0.55"
Upson, WI:  0.44"
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  0.23"

-Rainfall map for Monday, May 28, 2012.
















*The following are some radar grabs from the severe thunderstorm that hit portions of Duluth and Superior on Memorial Day*  


Note, these storms developed around the Noon hour in Crow Wing and Aitkin Counties, Minnesota.  They held together for a good 4 hours!

-VIL radar (vertically integrated liquid) a good tool to use to indicate where hail could be falling.  Note the deeper colors over Western Carlton County at 1:30pm Monday.















-Moving ahead to 1:58pm Monday.  Hail core getting closer to the Twin Ports.















-Zoomed in shot as the hail core bears down on the SW-S parts of Duluth, Minnesota.  2:26pm Monday.















-2:45pm Monday as numerous reports of small to large hail were being reported in Duluth and Superior.















-Here's the traditional radar image from 2:45pm Monday.  2 real intense storms, one right over the Southern parts of Duluth, the other affecting Southern Carlton County, near Moose Lake, MN.















-A final radar image from 4:15pm Monday. Notice how this storm held together as it hugged the South Shore of Lake Superior and the coastline of Northwestern Wisconsin.















Tim

Canon PowerShot Black 12.1 Megapixel Digital Camera - 5251B001

Monday, May 28, 2012

Memorial Day Severe Weather Risk!

Issued a 12:08 PM CDT, Monday, May 28th, 2012

...Storm Prediction Center has all of Northwest Wisconsin and parts of Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms This Afternoon-early This Evening.

Morning clouds are breaking up early This Afternoon, with skies becoming partly sunny into mid-Afternoon, the airmass will become unstable enough to cause a few lines of showers and thunderstorms across the Northland This Afternoon and early This Evening.  Additional support by way of a secondary cold front will also aid in the formation of some convection Today.

The main hazards from severe thunderstorms Today:

-Large hail (1" or greater in diameter)
-Damaging winds (60mph or greater)
-Brief heavy rainfall
-Dangerous lightning

*If you will be outdoors This Afternoon in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin make sure to keep an eye to the sky and have a way to be notified should severe weather approach your area.

*Thunderstorms are expected to move from west to east or from southwest to northeast Today...So if you notice darkening skies to your west-southwest you may wanna think about seeking safe shelter.

*Remember when thunder roars get indoors!

-Today's severe thunderstorm risk per SPC.













-Large hail potential for This Afternoon. (SPC)













-Damaging wind potential for This Afternoon.  (SPC)













-Tornado potential for This Afternoon.  (SPC)













Tim

Nikon D7000 Digital SLR Camera Body - 25468


Sunday, May 27, 2012

Weather Update. Severe weather/flood threat. Latest river stages for the Mississippi and St. Louis.

Issued at 2:33 PM CDT, Sunday, May 27th, 2012

*Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain potential into Tonight*

Numerous thunderstorms in a west to east band hit portions of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin early This Morning.  Those storms produced very heavy rainfall amounts along with dangerous lightning.  Here are some rainfall totals from the storms Saturday Night and Sunday Morning.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Northeast Minnesota:

3 N of Merrifield (Crow Wing County)  3.14"
Leech Lake (Cass County)  1.35"
Pine Center (Crow Wing County)  1.61"
Hibbing (St. Louis County)  1.09"
Pillager (Cass County)  2.00"
7 NW of Brainerd (Crow Wing County)  3.08"
Wrenshall (Carlton County)  1.74"
3 N of Brainerd (Crow Wing County)  3.42"
2 NE of Nisswa (Crow Wing County)  2.26"
Aitkin (Aitkin County)  1.22"

Northwest Wisconsin:

Oulu (Bayfield County)  1.25"
Clam Lake (Ashland County)  1.21"
10 N of Brule (Douglas County)  1.50"
10 S of Superior (Douglas County)  2.81" measured at Pattison State Park

Twin Ports area:

Duluth International Airport (St. Louis County)  0.71"
Proctor (St. Louis County)  1.12"

-Here's the watch/warning map from the NWS Duluth, Minnesota.  All the green areas are various flood headlines.















Due to the recent rains during the past week and the potential for additional rain thru Monday Morning, the National Weather Service in Duluth has issued various flood products.

*Flash Flood Watch in effect for This Evening thru Monday Morning*

Counties included are:

Cook MN
Lake MN
Central-Southern St. Louis MN
Southern Itasca MN
Crow Wing MN
Aitkin MN
Pine MN
Carlton MN

Douglas WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI

Some cities included in the watch are:

Grand Marais MN...Silver Bay MN...Finland MN...Two Harbors MN...Hibbing MN...Duluth MN...Grand Rapids MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Siren WI...Minong WI...and Spooner WI.

*Flood Warning in effect until 7:30am CDT Monday for the following Counties*

Central Ashland WI
Central Bayfield WI
Northern Douglas WI

*Flood Warning remains in effect for the following rivers in Minnesota*

-Mississippi River near Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing Counties.
-St. Louis River at Scanlon affecting Carlton County.
-Mississippi River near Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.

The Mississippi River near Aitkin:

At 11am Sunday the stage was 12.6 feet
Flood stage is 12.0 feet
Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.

The river will continue to rise to near 16.9 feet by Friday Morning.

At 15.0 feet flooding of low lying areas occurs in Aitkin.
At 17.0 feet pumping begins at the wastewater treatment plant.

This crest compares to previous crests of 16.26 feet on May 16th, 1997 and 17.12 feet on May 26th, 1979.

The Mississippi River near Fort Ripley:

At 11am Sunday the stage was 9.3 feet
Flood stage is 10.0 feet

The river will rise above flood stage by Tomorrow early Afternoon and continue to rise to near 12.5 feet by Saturday Morning.

As 12.0 feet the boat landing and parking lot at the public access are under water.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 14.3 feet on March 23rd, 1966.

The St. Louis River at Scanlon:

At 11:30am Sunday the stage was 9.2 feet
Flood stage is 10.5 feet

The river will rise above flood stage by Tomorrow late Morning and continue to rise to near 11.6 feet by early Tuesday Morning.  The river will fall below flood stage by early Thursday Morning.

At 12.0 feet water approaches canoe rental shop and restaurant near the river.

Forecast Discussion:

Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop thru early Monday Morning.  Abundant low level moisture in place will continue to lead to a risk for heavy rain.  Additional rainfall amounts by Morning Morning of 1-2" are possible in portions of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Any additional rain will fall on already saturated grounds which will continue to result in a risk for flooding.

Severe weather discussion:

The Storm Prediction Center has all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms This Afternoon and Tonight.  The main hazards are from large hail and damaging winds.  Isolated tornadoes are also possible between 5pm-8pm This Evening near a warm front in Central and Eastern Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin.

Ample amounts of instability is already in place across the Upper Midwest.  Forcing near a warm front and cold front and the approach of a potent upper level trough should result in the development of strong to severe thunderstorms in our area thru late Tonight.

-Here's the large hail threat for Today/Tonight per SPC.













-Tornado potential per SPC.













-Damaging wind potential per SPC.













*People in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin need to pay attention to the weather Today and Tonight.  Be alert for rapidly changing weather conditions.  Watches and warnings may be issued.

Tim

Canon EOS 7D 18 Megapixel Body Only Digital SLR 3814B004

Saturday, May 26, 2012

Heavy rain/severe weather/and May snow!?! A little something for everybody!

Issued at 4:52 PM CDT, Saturday, May 26th, 2012


  • Tonight:  Showers/t-storms (heavy rain & severe potential)
  • Sunday:  Showers/t-storms (heavy rain & severe potential)
  • Memorial Day:  Lingering showers.  Shifting winds.

-Sunday's severe weather forecast per SPC.  A fairly high probability for severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday Night in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Note the hatched area, significant severe weather events are possible in this area.













-The entire Northland is under a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms on Sunday.













Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Deep low pressure of 994mb was centered over the Central Rockies.  A well defined warm front attached to this low stretched west-east from Central Nebraska to Central Iowa late This Afternoon.  An amazing temperature contrast near this warm front Today with Afternoon temperatures ranging from 57F at International Falls to 70F at Luverne to the 80s in Northern Iowa, 90s in Southwest Iowa and 100F along the Nebraska/Kansas border.  Our area was well north of this warm front Today and as a result we stayed cool with highs in the 50s and 60s with 40s in Superior and Downtown Duluth.  Winds Today were out of the east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.  Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy Today.  An area of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms did affect Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Morning and early Afternoon.  A few rainfall totals include:  Brainerd, 0.18".  Aitkin, 0.26".  McGregor, 0.16".  Hinckley, 0.15".  Siren, 0.27".  Hayward, 0.15".

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A large 500mb trough was moving into the Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery with an area of 60-90 meter 12 hour height falls across the Southwest U.S.  An upper level ridge covered the Ohio Valley, Midwest and Southern U.S. per RUC model analysis.  4pm 850mb temperatures ranged from +4 to +8C in Northern Minnesota to +10 to +16C in Central and Southern Minnesota to +20 to +32C across the Central Plains and Eastern Rockies.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (May 26th)

A warm front will move north into Southcentral Minnesota with low pressure over the Rockies.  A southerly low level jet of 30-40 knots will continue in the Upper Midwest Tonight resulting in a warm/moist advection pattern.  A very unstable airmass currently in Iowa and Nebraska will also lift north into our area during the night with CAPE increasing to 500-1500 j/kg later in the night.  Showers and thunderstorms will develop at times along and well to the north of the warm front Tonight.  As the instability increases, there will be the potential of a few severe thunderstorms especially along and south of Highway 2.  Favorable wind shear in place could support the formation of elevated supercell type thunderstorms later Tonight...Large hail appears to be the main hazard from any storm that turns severe.  Locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning will also occur with the convection Tonight.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with east winds at 5 to 15 mph with stronger gusts.

-Tonight's chance for large hail 1" or greater in diameter.  (SPC)













-Tonight's damaging wind chance per SPC.













-Tonight's low temperature forecast













Sunday and Sunday Night (May 27th)

*Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain is possible during this period*

An area of low pressure will be moving through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  A warm front should make it into Central Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin on Sunday while a cold front heads east out of the Dakotas and across Minnesota Sunday Night.

The atmosphere should become quite unstable on Sunday with CAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg and Lifted Indices forecasted to range from -4 to -9C.  A very moist airmass will also cover our area with dewpoints in the 60s (away from Lake Superior) 850mb dewpoints from +10 to +16C and PWS of 1.00-1.50".  30-40 knots of shear is expected with 1km Helicity of 100-200 m2/s2 near and north of the warm front on Sunday.

The potential does exist for a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday Night.  A few of these storms could turn severe with large hail being the main hazard up in our area...But, a threat of damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes could also occur especially late Sunday Afternoon/Evening in Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwestern Wisconsin.

Highs on Sunday will range from the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior to the 60s in Northern Minnesota and the 70s and 80s from Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin...  Note:  90s are even possible from Siren, Hayward to Park Falls, Wisconsin.  Winds during this period will be out of the south, east or west at 10 to 20 mph.

-Warm front position for Sunday Morning per HPC.














-Late Sunday Afternoon warm front position per HPC.  Could be a few tornadoes near this warm front in Central Minnesota late Sunday Afternoon.














-Sunday's high temperature forecast













-Yes those are winter storm warnings and advisories which are in effect thru Sunday in parts of Montana and Wyoming.  Head west for a spring ski trip!















-Rainfall forecast thru 7pm Sunday per HPC















-Rainfall forecast for Sunday Night and Monday per HPC.  Locally heavy rainfall is possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Tonight thru early Monday Morning...This could lead to areas of flooding.















Extended Forecast, Monday-Wednesday (May 28th-30th)

Low pressure will be passing west/north of our area for Monday and Tuesday.  A cold front attached to this low should be exiting our area Monday Morning.  Showers are possible early next week with dry weather returning by next Wednesday.  The warmest day will be on Monday when highs will reach the 60s and 70s in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  A very cool day is in store on Tuesday with highs only in the 40s and 50s.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Lows Monday Night will mainly be in the 40s.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Note:  Scattered frost is possible late Tuesday Night-early Wednesday Morning.

Long Range Forecast (May 31st-June 6th)

Looks fairly quiet from May 31st-June 2nd.  Chances for showers/thunderstorms may start to increase from June 3-6.  Temperatures are forecast to be near seasonal average during this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Considerable cloudiness.  Occasional showers or thunderstorms.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Sunday...  Breezy.  Considerable cloudiness.  Occasional showers or thunderstorms.  High 58 to 63 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 60%

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers or thunderstorms.  Low 47 to 52.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Memorial Day...  Variable cloudiness.  Milder.  Showers possible.  High 68 to 73.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Cooler.  High 53 to 58.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  65
Low:  45

Sunrise Sunday:  5:21 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   8:51 PM CDT

Tim