Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Whew that was fun! Prelim snow totals and high wind report from Today's Blizzard!

Issued at 3:25 PM CST, Wednesday, February 29th, 2012

  • Blizzard continues This Evening around the head of Lake Superior
  • Much calmer day on Thursday
  • Some snow chances late this week and this weekend

*Preliminary snowfall reports from February 28th-29th, 2012*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

3 miles north of Butternut, WI (Ashland County)  19.0"
9 miles north-northeast of Sawyer, MN (St. Louis County)  17.0"
Winter, WI (Sawyer County)  17.0"
4 miles southeast of Park Falls, WI (Price County)  16.0"
Benoit, WI (Bayfield County)  15.0"
Phillips, WI (Price County)  14.0"
Ashland, WI (Ashland County)  12.0"
Gile, WI (Iron County)  11.5"
Montreal, WI (Iron County)  11.0"
11 miles north of Brule, WI (Douglas County)  10.0"
Herbster, WI (Bayfield County)  10.0"
Pine City, MN (Pine County)  10.0"
Alborn, MN (St. Louis County)  9.0"
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis County)  9.0"
Esko, MN (Carlton County)  8.0"
Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County)  7.2"
Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)  7.0"
Pillager, MN (Cass County)  6.5"
Lake Shore, MN (Cass County)  6.0"
Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)  5.5"
2 miles east of Payne, MN (St. Louis County)  5.5"
McGregor, MN (Aitkin County)  4.0"
Little Marais, MN (Cook County)  3.0"
Pine River, MN (Cass County)  2.0"
7 miles south of Bigfork, MN (Itasca County)  1.3"

5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  9.0" official total at the NWS thru 2:55pm CST.

High wind report from February 29th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Knife River:  57 mph
Duluth Airport:  56 mph
Sky Harbor:  56 mph
Silver Bay:  52 mph
Esko:  50 mph
Two Harbors:  49 mph
Superior:  45 mph

60-70 mph winds were also reported by automated observing stations on the Blatnik Bridge over the Duluth Harbor Today.

*Storm Update*

-Blizzard Warning continues until 8pm CST This Evening for Duluth...Including Southern St. Louis and Carlton Counties in Northeast Minnesota.

-Minnesota Power reports 4800 customers without power in the Duluth and Cloquet areas as of mid-Afternoon.

-Travel is not advised in Southern St. Louis...Carlton...or Pine Counties in Minnesota, this includes the Northern portion of Interstate 35  (NWS Duluth)

-Travel is not advised on Route 2 from Superior, Wisconsin to Ironwood, Michigan

-Winter Storm Warning is in effect until 8pm CST This Evening for Southern Lake and Pine Counties in Minnesota and for Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Iron...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price Counties in Wisconsin.

-Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 8pm CST This Evening for Central St. Louis...Northern Lake...and Cook Counties in Minnesota.

Weather Tidbits:

*216 severe weather reports (15 tornadoes) across parts of the Central Plains on February 28th.  Tornado reports occurred in Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and Illinois.  (SPC)

*58 severe weather reports (6 tornadoes) so far Today from Arkansas to the Ohio Valley.  Tornado reports were in Indiana and Kentucky.  (SPC)

Weather History:

On this date in 2000:  A record high temperature of 55 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Deep low pressure of 994mb was centered in far Southeast Minnesota as of 3pm.  Snow, heavy at times continued Today in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota with blizzard conditions in and around the Duluth area.  Little if any snow fell once you got up to the Minnesota/Ontario border.  Highs Today were in the 20s and 30s with east or northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph, but powerful winds of 30 to 55 mph with higher gusts developed early This Morning and persisted through the day around Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A strong 500mb low was moving into Southern-Central Wisconsin late This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery with impressive 12 hour 500mb height falls of 90-210 meters covering the Great Lakes and parts of the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis.  The next big storm was currently in the Pacific Northwest and was moving toward the east Today.  850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranged from -1 to -5C in Minnesota.

Note:  Click on the map below for a 12 hour loop.  Very impressive storm nails parts of the Northland last ngiht and Today.


















Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (February 29th)

Strong area of low pressure will move out of Wisconsin This Evening.  Light snow and flurries will persist most of the night in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with heavier snow showers continuing This Evening near Lake Superior.  Additional snowfall accumulations will be an inch or less, however, localized amounts ranging from 1-3" are possible near Lake Superior.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph with stronger winds of 20 to 45 mph continuing into mid-Evening near Lake Superior.

Thursday and Thursday Night (March 1st)

Low pressure will track E-NE out of the Central Plains while another area of low pressure moves east across the Northern Plains.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with occasional snow showers and flurries.  Accumulations through this period should remain under an inch.  Highs Tomorrow will mainly be in the 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s.  Winds during this period will be out of the south or east around 15 mph or less.

Extended Forecast, Friday-Sunday (March 2nd-4th)

Low pressure will lift northeast into the Eastern Great Lakes between Friday and Saturday while a NW flow develops across the Upper Midwest which will bring a weak disturbance or two across the region from Friday through Sunday.  Could be some snow showers and flurries at times during this period with high temperatures in the 30s on Friday and the teens and 20s for Saturday and Sunday.  Lows will be in the teens Friday Night and the single digits and teens for Saturday Night.

Long Range Forecast (March 5th-11th)

Milder temperatures are forecast to move into the Upper Midwest early next week, some spots might even reach 40 degrees.  Could be some sort of a storm or more than one storm at somepoint the middle/end of next week, March 7th-10th time frame which could bring some precipitation (snow/rain) to the Upper Midwest.  Stay tuned!

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*BLIZZARD WARNING*
Until 8pm CST Tonight

.Tonight...  Windy early.  Occasional snow tapering to flurries before Midnight.  Additional snowfall accumulations around 1" with storm totals of 8-10".  Mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph, decreasing to 10 to 15 mph and becoming north between 9-11pm.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow continuing This Evening with blizzard conditions at times.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph, becoming southeast.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 30 to 35.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 18 to 23.

.Saturday...  Variable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 6 to 11.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  29
Low:  11

Sunrise Thursday:  6:47 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   5:55 PM CST

Tim





Preliminary Snowfall Report/Storm Summary

Issued at 10:45 AM CST, Wednesday, February 29th, 2012

*Preliminary snowfall report per NWS Duluth, Minnesota*

Butternut, WI (Ashland County)  17.0"
2 miles north of Fifield, WI (Price County)  16.5"
2 miles west of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  14.0"
3 miles north of Pine City, MN (Pine County)  12.0"
Askov, MN (Pine County)  12.0"
4 miles north of Grantsburg, WI (Burnett County)  11.7"
2 miles northeast of Ashland, WI (Ashland County)  11.0"
2 miles south-southwest of Poplar, WI (Douglas County)  7.5"
Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)  6.0"
Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County)  6.0"
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis County)  4.5"

5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  7.0" official total through 9:55am CST.

Brief storm summary:

As of 10am CST:  Low pressure of 990mb was centered in Southern Minnesota.  This low will continue to track toward the E-NE through the rest of Today and should be centered near Green Bay, Wisconsin by early This Evening.















A couple storm reports per Twitter @b_stahl and @duluthnews

-Power outage in Superior.  2000 people affected in the Mariner Mall area.
-City of Duluth closing all it's buildings immediately.

Tim



*Storm Update Number 5* Blizzard!

Issued at 10:10 AM CST, Wednesday, February 29th, 2012

***BLIZZARD WARNING*** until 6pm CST This Evening for Duluth including Southern St. Louis and Carlton Counties in Northeast Minnesota.  Sustained blizzard conditions will continue through the Afternoon hours with winds, falling and blowing snow.  East to northeast winds of 30 to 45 mph with frequent gusts of 50 mph or greater will persist in and around Duluth.  Visibilities will remain as low as 50 to 100 feet.

Impacts:  A blizzard is very dangerous.  Do not go out! Do not attempt to drive.

A blizzard warning means severe and life-threatening winter weather conditions are expected.  The combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will result in dangerously low visibility and whiteout conditions.  Any travel is strongly discouraged.  If you choose to travel, you may be risking your life.  Be aware that you may become stranded and that it could take many hours for help to arrive.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle, including a flashlight, food and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.  If you become stranded, stay with your vehicle and use it as a shelter.  Many deaths occur in blizzards when people leave their vehicles trying to seek help.

*Law Enforcement Warning*
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Per Ashland County 911 Communications Center:  U.S. Highway 2 is declared impassable and closed between Sanborn Ave. and State Highway 13 north due to extreme weather conditions.  Motorists are to use designated State Highway 137 detour.

The closure will remain in affect until further notice.

Current headline map per HAMweather:
















Tim

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

*Storm Update Number 4*

Issued at 11:32 PM CST, Tuesday, February 28th, 2012

*WINTER STORM WARNING* for Duluth and Superior until 6pm CST Wednesday.

At 11pm CST:  Low pressure of 992mb was located in Northeast Nebraska/Southeast South Dakota.















Radar imagery over the past 2 hours:













Snow line has reached a Wright to Mahtowa, Minnesota line...and from Patzau to Ashland in Northwest Wisconsin.  The snow area continued to lift slowly toward the north.

Here are a few snowfall reports from This Evening per NWS Duluth, Minnesota:

1 mile south of Hinckley, MN (Pine County)  5.0"
4 miles south-southwest of Bruno, MN (Pine County)  1.5"
8 miles south of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  1.8"
Sandstone, MN (Pine County)  1.0" fell in 1 hour.
9 miles east of Herbster, WI (Burnett County)  2.5"
Sarona, WI (Washburn County)  2.0"

Latest thinking:

-Snow arrives in Duluth between 12am/1am with accumulations of 1-3" possible in the city by 6am.  Additional snow, heavy at times will occur on Wednesday with another 8-11" of accumulation possible which would bring storm totals to 9-14" by late Wednesday Afternoon.

-East winds had increased to 15-25 mph in Duluth as of late This Evening.  Expect gusty E-NE winds to continue into Wednesday with wind speeds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

-Areas of blowing and drifting snow will develop thru Wednesday.  Expect poor driving conditions with snow/ice covered roads with visibilities reduced to one half mile or less at times in falling and blowing snow.

-Snowfall storm totals should vary greatly across the Northland.  9-14" still looks likely in Northwest Wisconsin, the Twin Ports, Northshore, I35 corridor and west to the Brainerd Lakes with locally higher amounts possible.  Snowfall amounts will fall off drastically as you head farther north with anywhere from 1-5" of accumulation for the Iron Range, Arrowhead and Borderland areas.

Tim






*Storm Update Number 3*

Issued at 7:47 PM CST, Tuesday, February 28th, 2012

*WINTER STORM WARNING* for Duluth and Superior until 6pm CST Wednesday.

Current headline map from HAMweather:

Winter Storm Warning covers all of Northwest Wisconsin, most of Northeast, Eastern and Central Minnesota. Winter Weather Advisory borders the warning to the north and south.















At 7pm CST:  Low pressure of 995mb was located in Central Nebraska and should move into far Southern Minnesota Wednesday Morning.















Latest radar imagery shows the leading edge of snow spreading slowly north into Central-Eastern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin.  At 7:48 PM CST GR3 radar out of Duluth had the leading edge of snow from about Leader and Brainerd, east to Askov in Minnesota and from Dairyland and Wascott, east to Glidden and Mercer in Northwest Wisconsin.

Click the map for a little loopy loop:














Timeline:

-Based on current radar trends and short term model guidance, it appears that snow should reach the Twin Ports between 10pm-12am Tonight.

-Snow will gradually lift farther north after Midnight, reaching the Iron Range, North Shore and Arrowhead regions between 3-7am Wednesday Morning.

-I do have some concerns that snowfall totals may be lower than expected along and north of Highway 2 in Northern Minnesota.  It appears were heading into a very tight snowfall gradient (kind of what I feared a few days ago)

-I still expect 9-14" of snow in the Twin Ports by late Wednesday Afternoon, but at the moment I'm leaning toward the lower end of these totals based on what I'm seeing with radar trends and model guidance.  The fly in the ointment would be if we get some lake enhanced/lake effect snowfall in Duluth on Wednesday, if that happens then snow totals should have no problem reaching or exceeding 12".

-East to northeast winds will continue to increase Overnight into Wednesday...20 to 30 mph wind speeds will be common in the Twin Ports with higher gusts possible.

-Areas of blowing and drifting snow will develop late Tonight and continue on Wednesday.  The combination of falling and blowing snow will lead to visibilities of a half mile or less at times.  Roads will become snow covered and slippery and travel will become very difficult.

Stay tuned for further updates!

Tim


*Storm Update Number 2*

Issued at 3:18 PM CST, Tuesday, February 28th, 2012

*WINTER STORM WARNING* for Duluth and Superior 6pm This Evening-6pm Wednesday.

As of 3pm CST low pressure has deepened to 994mb (down from 1000mb at 11am) The center of the low was in the Northwest Kansas/Southwest Nebraska vicinity.
















Low pressure is forecast to move into far Southeast South Dakota around Midnight Tonight.















Latest radar:  Click the pic for a loop!













*Snow or a mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain should move into Southern parts of the Northland thru 7pm...Or along and south of a line from Pine River to Moose Lake to Solon Springs to Mercer.

*Snow will slowly lift north and should reach the Twin Ports between 9pm-12am Tonight based on latest model data.

*Snowfall storm totals by late Wednesday Afternoon are expected to range from 9-14" in Duluth and Superior with locally higher totals possible.

*E/NE winds will increase Tonight and Wednesday.  Wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph are likely with gusts exceeding 30 mph.  Considerable blowing and drifting snow will develop late Tonight into Wednesday.

*Roads will become snow covered and slippery.  The combination of falling and blowing snow will result in visibilities of a half mile or less at times.

Stay tuned for more updates.

Tim




*Tuesday Morning Winter Storm Update*

Issued at 11:44 AM CST, Tuesday, February 28th, 2012

Current headlines per NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER STORM WARNING* 6pm Today until 6pm Wednesday for Duluth and Superior.  Counties included are:  Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Carlton...Pine...and Southern St. Louis in Minnesota.  And in Wisconsin:  Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Iron...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price.  A few other cities included in the warning are:  In Minnesota:  Cass Lake, Walker, Leader, Pillager, Brainerd, Aitkin, Hill city, McGregor, Pine City, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Cloquet, and Floodwood.  In Wisconsin:  Solon Springs, Bayfield, Ashland, Butternut, Hurley, Danbury, Minong, Spooner, Hayward, and Park Falls.

*WINTER STORM WARNING* 9pm This Evening until 6pm Wednesday for Lake...Cook...Central St. Louis...and Itasca Counties in Minnesota.  Some cities included in the warning are:  Two Harbors...Silver Bay...Isabella...Lutsen...Grand Marais...Hovland...Grand Portage...Hibbing...and Bigfork.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* 12am Tonight until 6pm Wednesday for Koochiching and Northern St. Louis Counties in Minnesota.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  International Falls, Northome, Crane Lake and Ely.















Low pressure as of 11am CST was centered in Eastern Colorado with a pressure of 1000mb.  This low should move into Northeast Nebraska/Southeast South Dakota by late Tonight.















Here's the HRRR model (14z run) This is how the radar should look at 8pm This Evening:


Note:  The green in the Twin Ports, snow should be falling by around 8pm Tonight based on this model run.
















And fast forward to 11pm Tonight and the Twin Ports should be seeing some moderate to heavy snow.  Yellow and orange colors usually represent some very heavy snowfall rates..possibly >1"/hour!
















Radar imagery from This Morning:  Click it to view the loop.













Storm timeline:

-Light snow and flurries at times thru the Afternoon in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Accumulations <1".

-Snow should pick up in intensity between 6pm-10pm This Evening...It will move in from the south and southwest, so spots farther south from Brainerd and Aitkin, to Moose Lake, Hinckley and Pine City in Minnesota and Southern parts of Northwest Wisconsin will see snowfall rates increase before they do in Duluth/Superior.

-East winds will start to ramp up in the Twin Ports thru the Afternoon, but especially Tonight and Wednesday Morning...Wind gusts could exceed 30 mph during that time.

-Some sleet or freezing rain is possible Tonight mainly from Pine County Minnesota, east through Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer and Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.

-Travel will become very hazardous This Evening through Wednesday with snow covered and icy roads.  Visibility of a half mile or less can be expected at times Tonight and Wednesday due to heavy snow and blowing snow.

-Total snowfall accumulations by late Wednesday Afternoon:

*9-14" for Cass Lake, Walker, Brainerd, Aitkin, Pine City, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Floodwood, Duluth and for all of Northwest Wisconsin.  Note:  Locally higher amounts of 14-18" are also possible.

*4-8" for Grand Rapids, Bigfork, Hibbing and into the Arrowhead and North Shore...Although locally higher amounts of up to 12" are possible along the North Shore.

*1-4" for International Falls, Northome, Orr, Crane Lake and Ely.

Stay tuned for more updates on this winter storm.

Tim

Monday, February 27, 2012

A major winter storm arrives Tuesday Evening and lingers into Wednesday.

Issued at 4:11 PM CST, Monday, February 27th, 2012

  • Increasing clouds with some light snow for some late Tonight and Tuesday
  • Major winter storm overspreads parts of the area late Tuesday Afternoon-Wednesday
  • Near blizzard conditions may develop late Tuesday Night-Wednesday Morning in the Twin Ports

Weather Tidbits:

*3.2" snowfall at Duluth, Minnesota on February 26th was our first 3.0" or greater snowfall total since April 16th, 2011 (3.2")

*Seasonal snowfall total is up to 26.6" at Duluth, Minnesota which is 37.9" below average.  Note:  The least snowiest winter on record in Duluth is 26.8" which was set in 1899-1900.

*February snowfall total is up to 9.7" at Duluth, Minnesota which is 1.6" below average.

*From February 15th-27th:  9.2" of snow has fallen at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Partly to mostly sunny skies occurred Today with highs mainly in the 20s to lower 30s.  Winds were calm or from the west/southwest around 10 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Sunday's winter storm was passing east through Quebec Province This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery.  A west to east 500mb flow was found over the Upper Midwest Today behind the Quebec storm.  A powerful system was moving east into California with an upper level trough digging into the Rockies.  850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -12C in Northwest Minnesota to -6C in far Southwest Minnesota.

Water vapor loop from This Afternoon showing our strong winter storm moving into the Southwest U.S. and Central Rockies:

















Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (February 27th)

High pressure averaging 1032mb will move east through the Upper Midwest Tonight while low pressure heads into the Central Rockies.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with the potential for some light snow and flurries after 2am, mainly in Northcentral Minnesota.  Lows Tonight will be in the teens and 20s with winds becoming south at around 10 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (February 28th)

Low pressure will move from Northcentral Colorado toward Southwest Minnesota-Northwest Iowa during this period while deepening to around 990mb as it does so.  Light snow and flurries are possible throughout the Northland on Tuesday with daytime snow accumulations of 1" or less.  Snow, heavy at times will spread into Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday Evening through the Overnight hours with snow reaching the North Shore and Iron Range Overnight.  The pressure difference between the low to our southwest and high pressure well to our northeast will lead to a gusty E/NE wind of 10 to 25 mph with gusts >30mph developing late Tuesday Night, mainly near Lake Superior.  Blowing and drifting snow will become a problem along with increasing snowfall rates in parts of our area for Tuesday Night.  Temperatures during this period will be in the 20s and 30s.

Surface map for Tuesday Morning per HPC:

















Surface map for Tuesday Evening per HPC:
















Surface map for Wednesday Morning per HPC:
















8" or greater snowfall forecast.  Valid 6pm Tue-6pm Wed.  (HPC)
















12" or greater snowfall forecast.  Valid 6pm Tue-6pm Wed.  (HPC)
















0.25" or greater Ice accumulation forecast for 6pm Tue-6pm Wed.  (HPC)
















Latest storm track forecast per HPC:
















Extended Forecast, Wednesday-Friday (February 29th-March 2nd)

Strong area of low pressure will move from Southern Minnesota to Eastern Wisconsin on Wednesday.  Snow, heavy at times will continue on Wednesday in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with snow tapering off to flurries from west to east by late Wednesday Afternoon/Evening.  Gusty E/NE winds will continue on Wednesday which will cause more blowing and drifting snow.  Dry weather should return to the area on Thursday, then the next low pressure system may affect our area on Friday with some snow or flurries, although model spread becomes quite large by late this week, thus it's uncertain just how much snow could fall across our area.

High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s from Wednesday through Friday with low temperatures Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the teens and 20s.

Total snowfall accumulations from Tuesday through Wednesday:

*9-14" in Eastcentral Minnesota and all of Northwest Wisconsin...This includes the Brainerd Lakes, I35 corridor and Twin Ports areas.

*4-8" for the Iron Range, Arrowhead and North Shore.

*1-3" for International Falls, Crane Lake and Ely in far Northern Minnesota.

Note:  E/NE winds coming off Lake Superior may lead to periods of lake enhanced snowfall from the Twin Ports up along the North Shore of Lake Superior from late Tuesday Night into Wednesday...This may boost snowfall totals just a bit.

Note:  There is some concern for freezing rain or sleet to mix with the snow Tuesday Night and Wednesday Morning, mainly from Pine City and Hinckley, Minnesota...east to the Hayward Lakes in Northwest Wisconsin.

Long Range Forecast (March 3rd-9th)

There is a potential for another storm on Saturday (March 3rd) but the computer models are in poor agreement on the track and timing...Right now it looks like the best chance for accumulating snow would be in Wisconsin, but things could change between now and then.  Might be dealing with another system or two at somepoint during the March 5th-9th period per long range model guidance.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WINTER STORM WARNING*
6pm CST Tuesday until 6pm CST Wednesday

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible after 3am.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind becoming south to southeast around 10 mph.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow and flurries at times.  Snowfall accumulations of 1" or less.  High 30 to 34.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of snow 50%.

.Tuesday Night...  Windy with snow and blowing snow.  Periods of heavy snow possible after 9pm.  Low 27 to 30.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

.Wednesday...  Windy with snow and blowing snow.  Periods of heavy snow possible into early Afternoon.  Total storm accumulations of 9-14".  High 30 to 33.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Lingering light snow and flurries.  Little additional accumulation expected.  Low 15 to 20.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow possible.  High 30 to 35.  Chance of snow 30%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  28
Low:  11

Sunset Today:  5:51 PM CST

Tim

*UPDATED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE INFORMATION*

Issued at 3:33 PM CST, Monday, February 27th, 2012

*WINTER STORM WARNING*Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter storm warning is in effect from 6pm CST Tuesday until 6pm CST Wednesday for the following Counties:  In Minnesota:  Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...and Southern St. Louis.  In Wisconsin:  Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Iron...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price.  Some cities included in the warning:  Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Leader MN...Pillager MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Hill City MN...McGregor MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...  Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Danbury WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Hayward WI...Park Falls WI.

Discussion:  A major winter storm will hit portions of the Northland beginning Tuesday Evening and lasting into Wednesday.  Some light snow is possible at times on Tuesday, but accumulations should be under an inch.  Snow, heavy at times will overspread the warned area Tuesday Evening...Continuing Overnight and on into Wednesday before tapering off to flurries from west to east by late Wednesday Afternoon.

Impacts:  Snowfall rates possibly exceeding 1" per hour Tuesday Night and Wednesday Morning with Thundersnow also possible.  East to northeast winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph from Tuesday Afternoon through Wednesday with wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph developing in the Twin Ports.  Considerable blowing and drifting snow will develop by Tuesday Night and this combined with falling snow will produce near zero mile visibility at times.  Roads will become snow covered and slippery with very difficult driving conditions expected from Tuesday Evening into Wednesday.

Total snowfall accumulations:  9-14" of snow is expected to fall by late Wednesday Afternoon in the warning area.

A winter storm warning for heavy snow and blowing snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause dangerously low visibility and drifting snow.  Snow and ice covered roads and dangerous travel conditions can be expected.  Delay travel if possible.  If you must travel, use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Be aware that you may become stranded and that it could take many hours for help to arrive.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle, including a flashlight, food and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.

*WINTER STORM WATCH*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter storm watch is in effect from Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon for the following Counties:  In Minnesota:  Itasca...Central St. Louis...Lake...and Cook.  Some cities included in the warning:  Bigfork...Grand Rapids...Hibbing...Two Harbors...Silver Bay...Isabella...Lutsen...Grand Marais...Hovland...and Grand Portage.

Discussion:  Snow will develop Tuesday Evening and will continue on Wednesday.  The snow could become heavy at times.  East to northeast winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow will develop Tuesday Night and Wednesday with visibilities down to one quarter mile possible at times.  Roads will become snow covered and slippery with very difficult driving conditions.

Total snowfall accumulations:  4-8" of snow is expected in the watch area by late Wednesday Afternoon.

A winter storm watch means there is the potential for significant accumulation of snow, sleet or ice that may impact travel and commerce.  You are encouraged to stay current with the latest weather information regarding this developing winter storm via local television, radio, the internet or NOAA weather radio.

Tim

Tuesday Night/Wednesday Storm Update

Issued at 12:11 PM CST, Monday, February 27th, 2012

*WINTER STORM WATCH* is in effect from Tuesday Afternoon thru Wednesday Afternoon for Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...and Southern St. Louis Counties in Minnesota and for Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Iron...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price Counties in Wisconsin.  Some cities included in the watch:  Cass Lake...Walker...Brainerd...Aitkin...Pine City...Hinckley...Moose Lake...Duluth...Floodwood...Superior...Bayfield...Ashland...Hurley...Danbury...Spooner...Hayward...and Park Falls.

12z model data from This Morning has trended somewhat north from previous runs with the track of the surface low for Tuesday and Wednesday.  What this means is that heavy snow may spread slightly farther to the north than what I thought Sunday Evening.  It now appears that locations along and south of Highway 2 in Minnesota could receive 6-12" of snow and it's not out of the question that some spots pick up over one foot of snow.  It's also possible that some sleet or freezing rain could occur Tuesday Night and Wednesday Morning, especially in Northwest Wisconsin, mainly affecting Burnett, Washburn and Sawyer Counties.

Additional winter weather headlines may be needed for Tuesday Night and Wednesday for the North Shore of Lake Superior and possibly for parts of the Iron Range based on the newest model data.

Another problem from this storm will be the strong winds out of the east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts reaching 30 mph near Lake Superior from late Tuesday Night into Wednesday.  The snow that falls looks to be on the wet side with mild temperatures so drifting may not be that big of an issue, but blowing snow is still likely.

Difficult travel conditions should develop across parts of the Northland for Tuesday Night and Wednesday.

Stay tuned for additional updates on this potential winter storm.

Here are the latest headlines issued by the National Weather Service:

Green=Blizzard Watch
Blue=Winter Storm Watch
Pink=Winter Storm Warning
Purple=Winter Weather Advisory
















HPC's Ice accumulation map for Tuesday-6am Wednesday:  This map depicts where ice accumulations of at least 0.25" are forecast to occur.
















Might even be a few thunderstorms in far Southern Minnesota Tuesday into early Wednesday per SPC's day 2 forecast:














Tim

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Sunday's winter storm hits north of Duluth. The next one will be south of Duluth for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Issued at 7:58 PM CST, Sunday, February 26th, 2012

  • Accumulating snow the rest of Tonight for the South Shore and Arrowhead
  • Snow showers and flurries continue elsewhere Tonight
  • Some sun should return on Monday
  • A major storm may hit parts of the Northland Tuesday-Wednesday

*Preliminary snowfall report for Sunday, February 26th, 2012*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

13 miles east-southeast of Gunflint Lake, MN (Cook County)  11.0"
7 miles northwest of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  10.7"
Brimson, MN (St. Louis County)  10.3"
2 miles east of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)  10.0"
2 miles north of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  10.0"
Hibbing, MN (St. Louis County)  10.0"
Chisholm, MN (St. Louis County)  9.8"
12 miles north of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)  8.5"
Bigfork, MN (Itasca County)  8.0"
Babbitt, MN (St. Louis County)  7.5"
McKinley, MN (St. Louis County)  7.0"
3 miles east of Orr, MN (St. Louis County)  6.6"
3 miles east of Payne, MN (St. Louis County)  6.5"
Nashwauk, MN (Itasca County)  6.8"
1 mile south of Walker, MN (Cass County)  5.5"
3 miles south of Eveleth, MN (St. Louis County)  5.5"
Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis County)  5.3"
Island Lake, MN (St. Louis County)  5.0"
Leader, MN (Cass County)  5.0"
14 miles west of Isabella, MN (Lake County)  5.0"
Little Marais, MN (Lake County)  4.0"
7 miles north of Virginia, MN (St. Louis County)  4.0"
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis County)  4.0"
2 miles north of Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  4.0"
5 miles south of Littlefork, MN (Koochiching County)  4.0"
Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)  2.0"
Holyoke, MN (Carlton County)  1.9"
3 miles north of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)  1.0"

5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  3.0" official NWS total through 7pm.

Weather History:

On this date last year:  The low temperature was -15 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1008mb has moved into far Northern Wisconsin early This Evening.  A significant winter storm occurred Today in Northcentral and Northeast Minnesota with widespread heavy snowfall totals of 5-10" with 12"+ occurring along portions of the North Shore of Lake Superior thanks to favorable conditions to support lake enhanced snowfall.  Snow was much lighter farther south from Brainerd to Duluth and also in Northwest Wisconsin...Snowfall amounts in these areas have generally ranged from 1-3" Today.  Mostly cloudy skies were found in our area with highs in the 20s and 30s.  Winds were out of the east, south or west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow were also common Today across Northern Minnesota and the North Shore.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A powerful jet stream of 120-140 knots extended from Northeast Colorado to Upper Michigan to Southeast Ontario Province per RUC model analysis.  A fairly potent upper level low continued to move E-NE out of Minnesota and into Lake Superior This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery.  A strong storm system was heading E-SE and was moving toward California This Evening with another potent looking storm heading east through Southern Alaska per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 6pm ranged from +2C in Northern Illinois to -8C in Western Minnesota to -16C in Central Manitoba Province.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (February 26th)

Low pressure will track E/NE, reaching the Lake Superior-Upper Michigan area Overnight.  Light snow and flurries will linger through the night behind this low with additional accumulations of 1" or less.  Heavier lake effect snow showers are expected to develop Tonight along the South Shore of Lake Superior from Douglas to Bayfield, east to Ashland and Iron Counties...There is also a chance that some of these lake effect snow showers will affect Southeast Carlton and Northeast Pine Counties in Minnesota Tonight from Holyoke toward Kingsdale.  2-6" of snow could accumulate Overnight along the South Shore of Lake Superior with 1-3" possible in Southeast Carlton and Northeast Pine Counties.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows in the single digits and teens while some spots up North could drop below zero.  Winds will become north or west at 10 to 20 mph.

Monday and Monday Night (February 27th)

High pressure will dominate our weather during this period.  Partly cloudy skies are forecast with lake effect snow showers ending Tomorrow Morning in the Wisconsin snowbelt.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens.

Extended Forecast, Tuesday-Thursday (February 28th-March 1st)

A strong area of low pressure will track from the Rockies to the Central Plains on Tuesday and will pass south/southeast of Minnesota on Wednesday.  A dangerous winter storm could develop for Tuesday and Wednesday across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with a threat of heavy snow and strong winds creating blizzard or near blizzard conditions.  There remains uncertainty with how far north the heavier snow will get in our local area.  Complicating matters will be the presence of an area of high pressure which will cover Central and Eastern Canada for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Often times a high up to our north will feed dry air down the lake, so even when models show precipitation reaching Duluth, the dry onshore flow usually results in the erosion of the precipitation shield as it lifts north.  This could happen with this storm and as a result there could be a very sharp snowfall gradient across the Northland.

Based on latest model data it appears that areas from Brainerd to Hinckley, south to Pine City, and east from Danbury, Spooner, Hayward and Park Falls have the best chance for heavy snow with accumulations of at least 6" from Tuesday into Wednesday.  Snowfall amounts should taper off drastically as you head north toward the Twin Ports and Highway 2 corridor with little or no snow expected for the Iron Range, North Shore, Arrowhead and Borderland regions.

This storm is still a few days away and is just coming onshore Tonight so new model data that comes out Tonight and Monday should have a better handle on how this system will track as well as to where the heavier snowfall will setup.

Note:  The pressure gradient between the high to our northeast and low pressure to our southwest will result in gusty east-northeast winds for Tuesday and Wednesday...Wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph will develop with wind gusts possibly exceeding 30 mph.  Considerable blowing and drifting snow should occur especially in Southern parts of our area from Tuesday Afternoon, but especially from Tuesday Night into Wednesday.

Low pressure exits to the east by Wednesday Night with some lingering flurries or snow showers in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with dry conditions up north.  Thursday looks pretty quiet at this time.

High temperatures from Tuesday through Thursday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows in the teens and 20s for Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night.

Long Range Forecast (March 2nd-8th)

A complex low pressure system will affect the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes for Friday and Saturday with the potential for some snow showers and flurries.  Nothing really standing out in the models after Saturday, March 3rd-March 8th, but overall the pattern has become quite active, so things could change.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WINTER STORM WARNING*
Until 6am CST Monday

*WINTER STORM WATCH*
Tuesday Afternoon thru Wednesday Afternoon

.Tonight...  Occasional light snow and flurries.  Total storm accumulations around 2-3".  Mostly cloudy.  Low 9 to 14.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  Morning flurries possible.  High 22 to 27.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind west around 12 mph.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow possible.  High 27 to 32.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Tuesday Night...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Snow possible.  Low 20 to 25.  Chance of snow 30%.  East winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Wednesday...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Snow possible.  High 25 to 30.  Chance of snow 30%.  East winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  28
Low:  11

Sunrise Monday:  6:53 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   5:51 PM CST

Tim

*Latest Winter Weather Headlines* Updated!!

Issued at 5:40 PM CST, Sunday, February 26th, 2012

*WINTER STORM WARNING*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter storm warning remains in effect until 6am CST Monday for the following Counties in Minnesota:  Koochiching...Itasca...Northern and Central St. Louis...Cook...and Lake.  Some cities included in the warning:  International Falls...Bigfork...Grand Rapids...Hibbing...Ely...Crane Lake...Grand Portage...Hovland...Grand Marais...Lutsen...Silver Bay...Finland...Isabella...and Two Harbors.

Discussion:  Light snow and flurries will continue Tonight with moderate to heavy snow persisting This Evening along the North Shore of Lake Superior and also in the Arrowhead.

Additional snowfall accumulations:  1-3" of snow is expected Tonight with locally higher amounts along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Total storm accumulations will range from 5-9" with 12-16" possible in some locations along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Impacts:  Roads will remain snow covered and slippery Tonight.  Travel will continue to be difficult.  Winds gusting to 20-25 mph will result in areas of blowing and drifting snow through the night.

A winter storm warning for heavy snow and blowing snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause dangerously low visibility and drifting snow.  Snow covered roads and dangerous travel conditions can be expected.  If you must travel, use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle, including a flashlight, food and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter storm warning remains in effect until 6am CST Monday for the following Counties in Minnesota:  Northern Cass...Northern Aitkin...Carlton...and Southern St. Louis.  Some cities included in the warning:  Cass Lake...Walker...Hill City...Moose Lake...Wright...Duluth...and Floodwood.

Discussion:  Light snow and flurries will linger through the night with additional snowfall accumulations of 1-2" possible which will bring storm totals to 3-6".

This winter storm warning may be cancelled early.

Impacts:  Roads will continue to be snow covered and slippery Tonight.  Use extreme caution if you have travel plans.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter weather advisory remains in effect until 6am CST Monday for the following Counties in Northwest Wisconsin:  Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...and Iron.  Some cities included in the advisory:  Superior...Poplar...Solon Springs...Gordon...Iron River...Cornucopia...Bayfield...Iron River...Cable...Ashland...High Bridge...Butternut...Upson...Gile...and Hurley.

Discussion:  Occasional snow will continue Tonight and Monday Morning with snowfall accumulations of 2-6".

Impacts:  Roads will be snow covered and slippery.  Use caution if you have travel plans and allow extra time to reach your destination.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter weather advisory remains in effect until 6am CST Monday for the following Counties in Minnesota:  Southern Cass...Crow Wing...Southern Aitkin...and Pine.  Some cities included in the advisory:  Pine River...Leader...Brainerd...Pine Center...Aitkin...McGregor...Hinckley...and Pine City.

Discussion:  Light snow and flurries are possible at times Tonight with additional snowfall accumulations of 1" or less.

Impacts:  Some roads will be snow covered and slippery Tonight.  Use caution if you have travel plans and allow extra time to reach your destination.

*WINTER STORM WATCH*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter storm watch is in effect from Tuesday Afternoon through Wednesday Afternoon for the following Counties:  In Minnesota...Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Southern St. Louis...Carlton...and Pine.  In Wisconsin...Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Iron...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price.  Some cities included in the watch:  Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Pine Center MN...Aitkin MN...Hill City MN...McGregor MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Wright MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Superior WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Hurley WI...Danbury WI...Spooner WI...Hayward WI...and Park Falls WI.

Discussion:  A major winter storm will take aim at the Northland from Tuesday into Wednesday.  This storm has the potential to bring heavy snow and strong winds to portions of the area.  The greatest impacts are expected to occur from Tuesday Night into Wednesday.  There is still uncertainty on the storm track and how far north the heavier snowband will get, thus the watch area may change a bit during the next 24 hours.

A winter storm watch means there is the potential for significant accumulation of snow...sleet...or ice that may impact travel and commerce.  You are encouraged to stay current with the latest weather information regarding this developing winter storm via local television...radio...the internet...or NOAA weather radio.

Tim

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Snowy Sunday! Latest info. on Tomorrow's storm as well as the potential storm for next Tue-Wed.

Issued at 4:03 PM CST, Saturday, February 25th, 2012

  • Clouds on the increase Tonight
  • Snow spreads in from the west either late Tonight or Sunday Morning
  • Snowy Sunday ahead
  • A second storm may hit the area Tuesday-Wednesday

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Lake effect snow showers last night and Today dropped 5.5" of snow at Gile, Wisconsin and 4.0" of snow near Upson, Wisconsin (NWS Duluth)  This lake effect snow shower activity ended by This Afternoon as surface winds switched from the northwest to more of a westerly direction.  Partly to mostly sunny skies were found across our area Today with seasonably cool temperatures with highs mainly in the 20s.  Winds were out of the west, northwest or southwest at 15 mph or less, but winds are beginning to turn to the east late This Afternoon in western parts of our area.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery depicts an upper level ridge covering the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Central Plains while an upper level trough heads east through the Northern Rockies along with it's impressive 90-180 meter 12 hour height falls.  850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranged from +2 to +8C in Southwest South Dakota to -12C in Northern Minnesota to -20C in Northcentral Ontario Province.

Late Afternoon water vapor loop (click the map) showing our snow making storm heading thru Montana late Today.

















Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (February 25th)

Clear to partly cloudy skies will occur during the Evening, but clouds will be on the increase from west to east during the night as low pressure currently in the Northern Rockies moves into the Northern Plains.  A strengthening low level jet of 30-50 knots out of the south will result in a warm/moist advection pattern ahead of this low Overnight...Some snow should develop after Midnight in Northcentral Minnesota with up to 1" of accumulation possible by 6am Sunday, mainly from International Falls and Grand Rapids, west to Cass Lake and south to Walker and Brainerd.  Lows Tonight will be in the teens, but some locales could drop into the single digits This Evening.  Winds will become east-southeast during the night at 5 to 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (February 26th)

Low pressure now looks like it will track a bit more to the south compared to what a few of the models were showing over the past couple of days.  The NAM has been the northern outliar all along while the GFS and various Foreign models have had a track farther south, and it now appears that the southern solution will win out.

Low pressure should move from Eastcentral South Dakota to Eastern Minnesota on Sunday with low pressure heading into the Northwoods of Northern Wisconsin Sunday Evening before exiting into Upper Michigan Overnight.

Snow is expected across all of the Northland on Sunday and some heavier snow bands should develop at times.  Snow is forecast to diminish to light snow and flurries from west to east Sunday Night.

Latest storm track for Sunday per HPC:  Note the surface low now going south of Duluth, this might lead to somewhat higher snowfall totals for the Twin Ports.
















Total snowfall accumulations:

*5-8" for International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, all of the Iron Range cities and into the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Note:  The North Shore of Lake Superior may see snowfall amounts of 7-10" due to favorable conditions for lake enhancement.

*2-5" for all of Northwest Wisconsin, Twin Ports, Eastcentral Minnesota and the Brainerd Lakes.  The best chance for snowfall totals to reach or exceed 4" would be from Brainerd to Duluth and into extreme Northwest Wisconsin.

Note:  With the surface low expected to track south of Duluth, the surface winds should be more favorable for periods of lake enhanced snowfall on Sunday as winds stay more out of the east versus the southeast.  It's certainly possible that the advisory could be upgraded to a warning for the Twin Ports, and additional advisories may be needed for parts of Northwest Wisconsin for Sunday, unless the system heads a bit farther north.

High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 20s to lower 30s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits and teens.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph with winds Tomorrow Night turning to the north or west at 10 to 20 mph.  The gusty winds will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow during this period.

4" or greater snowfall forecast for Sunday, February 26th, 2012 per HPC:
















*WINTER STORM WARNING* remains in effect from Midnight CST Tonight until 6am CST Monday for Koochiching...Itasca...Northern Cass...Central and Northern St. Louis...Lake...and Cook Counties in Minnesota.  (NWS Duluth)

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* remains in effect from Midnight CST Tonight until 6am CST Monday for Southern Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Carlton...and Southern St. Louis Counties in Minnesota.  (NWS Duluth)

Warning and Advisory map for Minnesota per HAMweather:
















Extended Forecast, Monday-Wednesday (February 27th-29th)

Monday and Monday Night should be quiet in our area with high pressure in control.  Highs will be in the teens and 20s with lows in the single digits and teens.  The next winter storm that may affect the Upper Midwest would be during the Tuesday and Wednesday time frame, although the exact track of this next storm is not certain yet since it's still a couple days away.  Low pressure should exit the Rockies and move into the Plains early next week with low pressure passing south/southeast of Minnesota on Wednesday.  At the sametime this is happening, an area of high pressure will be centered to our N/NE.  A setup like this in the past has resulted in too much dry air coming down the lake which greatly reduces snowfall totals in the Northland.  This could certainly happen once again with this midweek storm.  The 00z and 12z EUROPEAN model hints at the dry air winning out, while the other models do not.  If this storm hits, it could be a big one with wind driven snow and possible blizzard conditions, especially near Lake Superior from Tuesday Night into Wednesday.

Long Range Forecast (March 1st-7th)

A third system may affect the Upper Midwest with some snow late next week (Friday-Saturday, March 2nd-3rd time frame) And after that, a possible clipper or two during the rest of the period, but the exact track of all these systems is uncertain at this time.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Midnight CST Tonight until 6am CST Monday

.Tonight...  Increasing cloudiness.  Light snow or flurries possible after 4am.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind light and variable, becoming east to southeast around 12 mph late.  Chance of snow 40%.

.Sunday...  Periods of snow.  Breezy.  High 25 to 30.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow possible.

.Sunday Night...  Snow early, tapering to some light snow and flurries.  Total storm accumulations of 3-6".  Mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  Morning flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow possible.  High 25 to 30.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Tuesday Night...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Snow possible.  Low 20 to 25.  Chance of snow 30%.  East winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Wednesday...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Snow possible.  High 25 to 30.  Chance of snow 30%.  East to northeast winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  28
Low:  10

Sunrise Sunday:  6:54 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   5:49 PM CST

Tim

*Updated winter weather headlines*

Issued at 1:10 PM CST, Saturday, February 25th, 2012

*WINTER STORM WARNING*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter storm warning is in effect from Midnight CST Tonight until 6am CST Monday for the following Counties in Minnesota:  Koochiching...Itasca...Northern Cass...Central and Northern St. Louis...Lake...and Cook.  Some cities included in the warning are:  International Falls...Northome...Bigfork...Grand Rapids...Cass Lake...Walker...Hibbing...Ely...Crane Lake...Two Harbors...Silver Bay...Finland...Isabella...Lutsen...Grand Marais...Hovland...and Grand Portage.


Discussion:  Snow will move into Northcentral Minnesota after Midnight Tonight and will spread into Northeast Minnesota, including the North Shore and Arrowhead Sunday Morning.  Snow, heavy at times will continue during the day Sunday before tapering to light snow and flurries from west to east Sunday Night.

Total snowfall accumulations:  5-8" of snow is expected by late Sunday Night with the higher terrain along the North Shore of Lake Superior having the best chance for picking up 8" of snow.

Impacts:  East winds could gust to 20 mph on Sunday which will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow.  Visibilities will be reduced to around one quarter mile at times in the snow and blowing snow.  Roads will become snow covered and slippery on Sunday with difficult driving conditions developing.

A winter storm warning for heavy snow means heavy snow accumulation is anticipated, and that snowfall rates of one inch per hour or greater can be expected at times.  Expect snow and ice covered roads and visibility less than a quarter mile.  If you must travel, exercise extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination. Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle, including a flashlight...food...and water.  If you choose to travel, be aware that you may become stranded and that it may take several hours for help to arrive.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter weather advisory is in effect from Midnight CST Tonight until 6am CST Monday for the following Counties in Minnesota:  Southern Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Carlton...and Southern St. Louis.  Some cities included in the advisory:  Pine River...Leader...Brainerd...Pine River...Aitkin...Hill City...McGregor...Moose Lake...Wright...and Duluth.

Discussion:  Snow will develop late Tonight with snow possibly becoming heavy at times during the day Sunday before tapering to light snow and flurries from west to east for Sunday Night.

Total snowfall accumulations:  2-4" of snow is expected by late Sunday Night with localized greater amounts of 5-6" possible.

Impacts:  East winds could gust to 20 mph on Sunday which will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow. Visibilities will be reduced to under a mile at times.  Roads will become snow covered and slippery.

A winter weather advisory for snow means that accumulating snow will cause travel difficulties.  Be prepared for snow covered roads and reduced visibility and use caution while driving.  Allow extra time to reach your destination.

Winter Storm Warnings in pink on this map with Winter Weather Advisories in purple:















Tim

Friday, February 24, 2012

Accumulating snow east of the Twin Ports Tonight. Latest info. on the Sunday storm, and possibly another one for next Tuesday-Wednesday!

Issued at 3:17 PM CST, Friday, February 24th, 2012

  • Lake effect snow showers with several inches of accumulation Tonight for the South Shore
  • Clouds and flurries linger for the rest of us Tonight
  • Chilly, but dry Saturday ahead
  • Snow system still expected on Sunday, heaviest totals north of Duluth?
  • Major storm is possible next Tuesday-Wednesday

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*Source:  National Weather Service Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter weather advisory is in effect until 11am CST Saturday for the following Counties in Northwest Wisconsin:  Bayfield...Ashland...and Iron.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Port Wing...Cornucopia...Bayfield...Washburn...Iron River...Grand View...Cable...Ashland...Mellen...High Bridge...Glidden...Butternut...Upson...Montreal...Hurley...and Gile.

Discussion:  Snow showers will occur along the South Shore of Lake Superior Tonight and Saturday Morning before ending Saturday Afternoon.  Total snowfall accumulations of 3-7" are expected in the advisory area by Saturday Afternoon.

Impacts:  Roads will be snow covered and slippery.  Highway C from Cornucopia to Washburn...Highway 77 from Ironwood to Mellen to Clam Lake are just a few roads that may be affected.

A winter weather advisory for snow means that accumulating snow will cause travel difficulties.  Be prepared for snow covered roads and reduced visibility.  Use extra caution while driving.  Allow extra time to reach your destination.

*WINTER STORM WATCH*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter storm watch is in effect from Sunday Morning through Monday Morning for the following Counties in Minnesota:  Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Carlton...St. Louis...Lake...and Cook.  Some cities included in the watch are:  International Falls...Northome...Bigfork...Grand Rapids...Cass Lake...Walker...Leader...Brainerd...Pine Center...Aitkin...Hill City...McGregor...Moose Lake...Wright...Duluth...Hibbing...Ely...Crane Lake...Two Harbors...Silver Bay...Isabella...Forest Center...Lutsen...Grand Marais...Hovland...and Grand Portage.

Discussion:  Snow will develop late Saturday Night with snow continuing Sunday and Sunday Evening before tapering off to light snow and flurries from west to east Sunday Night. 

Total snowfall accumulations:  4-6" of snow is possible in the watch area with locations along and north of Highway 2 having the greatest chance for these types of amounts.  Snowfall totals could reach 7-10" along the North Shore of Lake Superior where lake enhanced snow is possible Sunday and Sunday Evening.

Impacts:  Road conditions are expected to worsen on Sunday due to falling snow and areas of blowing and drifting snow.

A winter storm watch means there is the potential for significant accumulation of snow that may impact travel and commerce.  You are encouraged to stay current with the latest weather information regarding this developing winter storm via television...radio...the internet or NOAA weather radio.

Winter Storm Watch for Sunday-early Monday for Northern Minnesota (HAMweather)
















Weather History:

On this date in 2001:  11.7" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Deep low pressure of 987mb was moving into Southeast Ontario Province late This Afternoon with low pressure of 1008mb centered just north of Minnesota.  The low out east was producing rain and snow in the Northeast and a severe weather outbreak in the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas and Southeast U.S.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were found across our area Today with scattered snow showers and flurries with accumulations under 1".  Snow showers have been heavier at times in Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin Today.  Highs were in the teens and 20s which is actually near to below average for late February.  Winds Today were out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest Today with a powerful upper level jet nearing 200 knots covering parts of the Southern Ohio Valley per RUC model analysis.  A strong storm system was lifting northeast into Eastern Canada late Today while a couple of disturbances drop S-SE into the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery.  Note:  The system that will affect the Upper Midwest on Sunday was currently moving into Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest.  850mb temperatures in Minnesota as of 1pm ranged from -10 to -14C.

















Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (February 24th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with scattered flurries and light snow showers, although occasional heavier snow showers will continue along the South Shore of Lake Superior where 3-7" of snow could accumulate by Saturday Morning.  Lows will be in the single digits and teens with a few locales in Northern Minnesota possibly dipping a few degrees below 0.  Winds Tonight will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (February 25th)

Snow showers could continue Tomorrow Morning along the South Shore of Lake Superior with dry weather returning to this area Saturday Afternoon.  The rest of our area should be dry on Saturday.  Partly to mostly sunny skies are forecast Tomorrow with highs in the teens and 20s.  Low pressure will reach the Northern Rockies and Western High Plains Saturday Night with a southerly low level jet of 40-50 knots developing ahead of this system.  Clouds will be on the increase from west to east Saturday Night with light snow developing after Midnight in Northcentral Minnesota.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits and teens.  West or northwest winds on Saturday will become south or east Saturday Night at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast, Sunday-Tuesday, (February 26th-28th)

An area of low pressure is forecast to move out of the Dakotas and across the Northern half of Minnesota on Sunday before moving out into Lake Superior by Sunday Evening.  Most of the computer models have trended a bit farther north with Sunday's storm track...It appears that the low will track near or slightly north of Duluth by late Sunday Afternoon.  The heaviest snowfall would be along and north of Highway 2 in Minnesota and also along the North Shore and in the Arrowhead of Minnesota based on this track.  The 12z UK and CANADIAN models still have a more southerly track to the low on Sunday and this would bring the heavier snow south to the Twin Ports and even into far Northwestern Wisconsin.  A couple more model runs between This Evening and Tomorrow Morning should be able to pinpoint how far south the heavier snow will fall.

Snow will end from west to east Sunday Evening/Overnight with mainly dry weather on tap for Monday as low pressure moves into Eastern Canada.

Expected snowfall totals for Sunday:

*4-6" north of Highway 2 in Northern Minnesota, this also includes the Arrowhead.
*Localized amounts of 7-10" are possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
*1-4" for Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Here's the latest storm track for Sunday per HPC:  Heaviest snow should be north of Duluth based on this track, but it will be close...Any shift to the south and the Twin Ports would get heavier snowfall on Sunday.  Stay tuned!
















High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Sunday Night in the teens and 20s.  Highs on Monday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Monday Night in the single digits and teens.  Highs for Tuesday will be in the 20s and 30s.

By early next week a potent upper level trough will be developing across the Rockies/Southwest U.S. while a southwest upper level flow develops in the Plains.  Low pressure is forecast to develop in the Rockies and Plains early next week.  Some snow or mixed precipitation associated with this developing storm may start to affect portions of the Northland by next Tuesday.

Long Range Forecast (February 29th-March 6th)

A powerful storm may take aim at the Upper Midwest next Wednesday, February 29th.  Computer models show a pretty deep area of low pressure moving into Minnesota or passing just south/east of the state for the middle of next week.  This storm if it affects us could bring strong winds along with snow or even rain/mixed precipitation...Some of this precipitation could be on the heavy side.  The latest model data suggests around a foot or more of snow could fall in some parts of the Northern Plains or Upper Midwest for next Tuesday and Wednesday.  Stay tuned!

Another system may impact the region sometime late next week-next weekend (March 2nd-4th) some snow could occur in parts of our area should this system develop and track in our direction.

Map below represents the 5 day precipitation forecast per HPC:  This is valid thru next Wednesday Morning, February 29th, 2012:  Hefty totals for drought stricken Minnesota, lets hope it verifies!
















5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WINTER STORM WATCH*
6 AM CST Sunday until 9 AM CST Monday

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 8 to 13.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Becoming partly sunny.  Flurries possible early.  High 21 to 26.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Snow possible after 4am.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind becoming east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of snow 40%.

.Sunday...  Occasional snow.  Total snowfall accumulations of 2-4".  Mostly cloudy.  High 29 to 34.  Chance of snow 80%.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  Morning flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

.Monday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday...  Increasing cloudiness.  Snow possible.  High 25 to 30.  Chance of snow 30%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  27
Low:  10

Sunrise Saturday:  6:56 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   5:48 PM CST

Tim



Thursday, February 23, 2012

Drought update! 1/2-2.0" of snow possible late Tonight-Friday Evening. Latest info. on the Sunday storm!

Issued at 3:24 PM CST, Thursday, February 23rd, 2012

  • Clouds along with passing snow showers and flurries thru Friday Night
  • Minor snow accumulations possible in spots Tonight and Friday
  • Saturday looks dry and seasonably chilly
  • Storm threat continues for Sunday

*Latest Drought Monitor for Minnesota as of February 21st, 2012*
Source:  Climate Prediction Center

*99% of Minnesota was abnormally dry
*96% of Minnesota, including the city of Duluth was in moderate drought (unchanged from last week)
*24.10% of Minnesota was in severe drought (unchanged from last week
















Quick facts:

*The period from August 28th, 2011 thru February 23rd, 2012 has had 3.00-7.50" of precipitation across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin which is 4-8" below average! (MRCC)




















*An additional 3-6" of precipitation is needed in Northern Minnesota to get back to average while Northwest Wisconsin is doing somewhat better, here precipitation totals of a trace to 3" is needed to get back to normal. (MRCC)

















Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A strong area of low pressure averaging 990mb was located in Southeast Missouri late This Afternoon with spring like warmth stretching from Central Missouri and Central Illinois and points south from there...Highs in these areas were in the 60s and 70s Today with even some 80s in the Southern U.S.  A narrow band of heavy snow with anywhere from 3-13" of accumulation occurred on the backside of this low from parts of the Dakotas last night and Today, southeast into parts of Iowa This Afternoon.  Our area escaped all this stormy weather with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies occurring Today with high temperatures in the 20s and 30s with north or west winds around 10 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A strong jet stream of 130-150 knots extended from Western Canada into the Northern Rockies, Central Plains and Northeast U.S.  A vigorous upper level disturbance and upper trough was dropping south/east out of the Rockies and Northern Plains Today per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -8C in Northern Minnesota to around -5C in Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Friday Night (February 23rd-24th)

An area of low pressure will pass by to our north/northeast during this period while a cold front and rather strong upper level disturbance drop south-southeast through our area.  Skies for the most part will be mostly cloudy through Friday Night.  Occasional snow showers and flurries will also occur with the potential for 1-2" of accumulation in some locations, but most locales will only see a half inch or less of new snow.  Lows Tonight will be in the teens and 20s with highs Friday in the 20s to low 30s.  Lows Friday Night will be in the single digits and teens.  Variable winds Tonight will turn northwest Friday and Friday Night, wind speeds will be around 10 mph Tonight and in the 10 to 20 mph range for Friday and Friday Night.

Extended Forecast, Saturday-Monday, (February 25th-27th)

Quiet weather is expected for Saturday with high temperatures mainly in the 20s which is right around normal for late February.  A quick moving upper level ridge of high pressure will pass through the Upper Midwest on Saturday while low pressure moves into the Northern Rockies/Western High Plains.  Clouds should be on the increase across our area Saturday Night with lows mainly in the teens.  Some light snow and flurries may even break out Overnight Saturday in Northcentral Minnesota.

Low pressure will move east out of the Northern Plains on Sunday, passing through Central and Eastern Minnesota during the day before exiting into Central Lake Superior/Upper Michigan area by late Sunday Night-early Monday.

The computer models are in fairly good agreement on the track as well as the timing of this storm which has sped up somewhat compared to recent days.

There continues to be differences as to where the heavier snow band sets up, however, and these differences will probably continue for another 24 hours or so.

At this point it looks like all of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will see some snow with the heavier snow band targeting Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota.  The bulk of the snow is forecast to fall on Sunday and Sunday Evening with snow ending from west to east from Overnight Sunday into Monday Morning.

Early snowfall estimates for the Sunday storm indicate the potential for 4-6" of snow along and north of a line from Walker to Duluth, this would include the Iron Range, Arrowhead and Borderland regions.  An easterly wind coming off Lake Superior may lead to some lake enhanced snowfall along the North Shore of Lake Superior for Sunday and Sunday Evening...This may extend south to Duluth, but that will depend on the wind direction and right now surface winds look to be more E-SE vs. the ideal E-NE wind direction.

1-3" of snow is possible for Eastcentral Minnesota and all of Northwest Wisconsin on Sunday.

Note:  This storm is still 3 days away so changes on the track, intensity and timing could occur.

Highs on Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Sunday Night in the teens and 20s.  Highs for Monday will be in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast (February 28th-March 5th)

The storm on Sunday moves well off to our E-NE early next week with dry weather returning to our area.  A new storm is forecast to take shape across the Rockies/Southern Plains region during the middle of next week.  Where this storm tracks is handled very differently by the computer models Today.  12z GFS and NOGAPS keep it well to our south/east with no impacts for the Northland.  The 12z GEM-global, JMA and EUROPEAN computer models have a heck of a storm hitting the Upper Midwest sometime between Tuesday-Thursday, February 28th-March 1st with strong winds and the potential for heavy snow.  Stay tuned!

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible after 4am.  Low 18 to 23.  Wind variable around 10 mph.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  Accumulations less than 1".  High 25 to 30.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of snow 40%.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 8 to 13.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly sunny.  High 21 to 26.

.Saturday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Low 10 to 15.

.Sunday...  Breezy with snow.  High 25 to 30.  Chance of snow 70%.  East to southeast winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Sunday Night...  Snow during the Evening tapering to light snow and flurries late.  Total storm accumulations of 3-6" possible.  Low 15 to 20.  Chance of snow 70% early and 40% Overnight.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  Morning flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  27
Low:    9

Sunrise Friday:  6:58 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   5:46 PM CST

Tim